Preview AFL 2018 - 1st Elimination Final - Melbourne v Geelong, Friday, 7.50pm, MCG

[The_Wookie]

Match Information

• Venue: MCG
• Time: 7.50pm
• MCC Predicted Attendance: 90,000
• Venue event page
• Note: For safety and security reasons, there will not be any public parking in Yarra Park.
• Weather: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Max 16.
• TV and Radio: Click here for broadcast guide
  
• AFL Match Centre

Preview

The MCG will be buzzing for Melbourne's first final in 12 years, with the Demons going into September in strong form after consecutive wins over fellow finals combatants West Coast (17 points) and Greater Western Sydney (45 points). Geelong has had a more cushy run into finals with back-to-back hammerings of Fremantle (133 points) and Gold Coast (102 points), giving the Cats important momentum going into their third consecutive finals campaign. If their home and away season battles are any guide, you can expect another close tussle between the two oldest sides in the competition in a do-or-die elimination final on Friday night.

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round one: Geelong 14.13 (97) d Melbourne 13.16 (94)

A Patrick Dangerfield-less Cats side led by 27 points at half-time, only to see Melbourne come charging back into the contest with a four goals to one third term. Demons ruckman Max Gawn had the chance to claim victory with a shot in the dying stages of the game but his kick missed to the left.

Round 18: Geelong 16.4 (100) d Melbourne 14.14 (98)

Geelong cut into a 23-point three-quarter time deficit with an inspired final term from forward Tom Hawkins, who kicked four of his seven goals in the last quarter. Melbourne was denied victory by Zach Tuohy, who kicked a clutch set-shot after the siren to deliver the Cats a pulsating win.

LAST FIVE TIMES

• R18, 2018, Geelong 16.4 (100) d Melbourne 14.14 (98) at GMHBA Stadium
• R1, 2018, Geelong 14.13 (97) d Melbourne 13.16 (94) at the MCG
• R3, 2017, Geelong 20.6 (126) d Melbourne 13.19 (97) at Etihad Stadium
• R23, 2016, Geelong 24.11 (155) d Melbourne 6.8 (44) at GMHBA Stadium
• R12, 2015, Melbourne 18.5 (113) d Geelong Cats 13.11 (89) at GMHBA Stadium

 

[AdamE89]

While I’d love to see it hit 90k, I just can’t see it happening. But if it did, would be amazing considering we will have a majority of the fans more likely. If it hits 90k, I reckon 60-30 our way. Considering the MCC holds around 22,000 seats, you’d think around 21,000 would at least be Melbourne.

Can’t ******* wait!

 

[Bulldog Brent]

While I’d love to see it hit 90k, I just can’t see it happening. But if it did, would be amazing considering we will have a majority of the fans more likely. If it hits 90k, I reckon 60-30 our way. Considering the MCC holds around 22,000 seats, you’d think around 21,000 would at least be Melbourne.

Can’t ******* wait!

MCG usually very accurate with crowd predictions. If the weather holds up and the MCC fills up, no reason why 90k won’t be achieved.

 

[aCunningPlan]

While I’d love to see it hit 90k, I just can’t see it happening. But if it did, would be amazing considering we will have a majority of the fans more likely. If it hits 90k, I reckon 60-30 our way. Considering the MCC holds around 22,000 seats, you’d think around 21,000 would at least be Melbourne.

Can’t ******* wait!

Friday night in Melbourne, of course the Demons will have the majority of fans. I know plenty who can't travel up the freeway to watch the Cats play because of the time.

 

[sobrave]

This to me is the most intriguing match up in the first week of finals

Are the demons just "happy to be there"? We'll find out in the first 5 minutes.

 

[Adz]

Massive disappointment for the loser.

Chris Scott’s final record drops to 30% if Cats lose this.

 

[LeverPuller]

While I’d love to see it hit 90k, I just can’t see it happening. But if it did, would be amazing considering we will have a majority of the fans more likely. If it hits 90k, I reckon 60-30 our way. Considering the MCC holds around 22,000 seats, you’d think around 21,000 would at least be Melbourne.

Can’t ******* wait!

Gil said on On The Couch there are only 1000 tickets left

 

[PerthBoy86]

Dunno if the Cat's easy two last rounds necessarily give the right kind of momentum to be going into finals. Not that there's anything wrong with it, as long as the Cats are prepared for a tough contest.

 

[Adz]

You just feel like if any final will be a blow out it would be this one.

 

[telsor]

Friday night in Melbourne, of course the Demons will have the majority of fans. I know plenty who can't travel up the freeway to watch the Cats play because of the time.

Should have finished higher so you could host it then.

 

[demondavey]

Obviously lots of discussion re this already, but it really comes down to Melbourne being able to capitalise on their inside 50 count and continuing the dominant form around stoppages. We’ve got a great spread of goal kickers and midfield / half forward types, we now need to really carry on that end of season form.

The midfield battle will be huge. Dangerfield, Selwood, Menegola, Duncan and Ablett on any given day can prove to be match winning, so it’ll take a massive from our midfield to counter that and also exert their influence.

Our defence gets the ultimate test with Hawkins having a pretty intimidating record against us. I think Frost plays a big part this week, a guy who was dropped earlier in the year for poor disposal and decision making, but who now has worked his way into good form using his natural instincts as a player. If he and Oscar McDonald can contain Hawkins then we go a long way to winning.

 

[demondavey]

You just feel like if any final will be a blow out it would be this one.

Yeah I can see the Cats getting a hiding

 

[Gydafud]

Go Cats. Fairly confident about this one. Good luck Melbourne. Hope it's a good game.

 

[Jeff76]

Massive disappointment for the loser.

Chris Scott’s final record drops to 30% if Cats lose this.

At least he has a finals record.

 

[demondavey]

Go Cats. Fairly confident about this one. Good luck Melbourne. Hope it's a good game.

What gives you confidence?

 

[Angus Young]

so many people bullish on the D's.

i think Cats will be too good.

 

[demondavey]

so many people bullish on the D's.

i think Cats will be too good.

Unfortunately I tend to think the same...

 

[Gydafud]

What gives you confidence?

Two victories over the Dees so far this year. Quality players throughout the Geelong team. Melbourne untested in finals.

 

[AFDogs]

You just feel like if any final will be a blow out it would be this one.

Can see Richmond blowing out Hawthorn more, to be honest.

 

[demondavey]

Two victories over the Dees so far this year. Quality players throughout the Geelong team. Melbourne untested in finals.

Fair points. Tend to agree to be frank but hoping we can overcome that somehow.

 

[LeverPuller]

Fair points. Tend to agree to be frank but hoping we can overcome that somehow.

The two wins were by less than a kick and we have quality too...

 

[Jeff76]

Can see Richmond blowing out Hawthorn more, to be honest.

I agree, can see that game over by half time, Cats and Dees will go to the wire.

 

[jameses]

Two victories over the Dees so far this year. Quality players throughout the Geelong team. Melbourne untested in finals.

I would argue that Melbourne have a more even spread of quality players.

The argument that Melbourne will be exposed because of a lack of finals has no credibility considering the Dogs and Richmond have won the last two flags.

 

[catpremier 07]

No idea who wins, just going to enjoy the next few days and what will be, will be.

 

[TigerTime_89]

Melbourne have the Richmond of 2013 written all over them.