Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 4 - Lions v Pies Thurs April 6th 7:35pm AEST (Gabba)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Lions by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • Pies by a goal or less

    Votes: 4 5.1%
  • Lions by 7 - 20

    Votes: 21 26.9%
  • Pies by 7 - 20

    Votes: 28 35.9%
  • Lions by a lot

    Votes: 8 10.3%
  • Pies by a lot

    Votes: 13 16.7%
  • Draw

    Votes: 1 1.3%

  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .

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Predicted scores were not that far off the final score. The difference in the goal accuracy was predominantly a function of what sort of shots were generated by each side.

The way Collingwood plays allows themselves to be beaten behind the last man which leads to easy shots at goal which is a big part of why Brisbane kicked so accurately with so many shots inside 25. Watching the game, I didn't think Brisbane had one of those "can't miss a shot" games.

Will be interesting to see if/how Fly changes things up to counter teams that pushes up on the handball chains like Brisbane did to sweat on any turnovers. The dew that happens in Brisbane during night games wouldn't have helped their handball game either.

Six rushed behinds for the Pies according to AFL stats.

Apart from Mihocek they had no one playing deep forward who looked likely.

Put two rucks in the side would change things with a couple of marking targets.
 
Lol that’s a load of s**t that. We had a heap miss from right in front. Daicos and Elliott for example

Both of those were factored in. Daicos was 86% chance of making his shot, and Elliott was 59% chance of making his (set shot from 41.0m, 26° angle). Combined those gave around +10 to the predicted score (vs. +2 actual).

A lot of Collingwood's misses were shots from more than 45-50m, on the run or set shots from tighter angles than 45°.

Code:
Q1 4:43 COLL BEHIND (set)
BMcCreery 30.5m 54°
Q1 24:51 COLL BEHIND (set)
BMihocek 48.7m 30°
Q2 0:55 COLL BEHIND (in play)
AJohnson 51.7m 47°
Q2 12:37 COLL BEHIND (in play)
JElliott 22.6m 72°
Q2 29:39 COLL BEHIND (set)
BHill 23.2m 29°
Q3 3:01 COLL BEHIND (set)
JElliott 49.0m 7°
Q3 11:34 COLL BEHIND (set)
NDaicos 21.7m 10°
Q3 17:22 COLL BEHIND (in play)
NDaicos 39.8m 28°
Q3 20:47 COLL BEHIND (in play)
OMarkov 52.3m 10°
Q3 26:54 COLL BEHIND (in play)
JDe Goey 35.1m 32°
Q4 6:49 COLL BEHIND (in play)
SSidebottom 48.2m 48°
Q4 8:50 COLL BEHIND (set)
JElliott 41.0m 26°
Q4 22:33 COLL BEHIND (set)
TAdams 24.2m 53°

It's not like Collingwood missed a ton of set shots from 30m out directly in front.
 
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Both of those were factored in. Daicos was 86% chance of making his shot, and Elliott was 59% chance of making his (set shot from 41.0m, 26° angle). Combined those gave around +10 to the predicted score (vs. +2 actual).

A lot of Collingwood's misses were shots from more than 45-50m, on the run or set shots from tighter angles than 45°.

Code:
Q1 4:43 COLL BEHIND (set)
BMcCreery 30.5m 54°
Q1 24:51 COLL BEHIND (set)
BMihocek 48.7m 30°
Q2 0:55 COLL BEHIND (in play)
AJohnson 51.7m 47°
Q2 12:37 COLL BEHIND (in play)
JElliott 22.6m 72°
Q2 29:39 COLL BEHIND (set)
BHill 23.2m 29°
Q3 3:01 COLL BEHIND (set)
JElliott 49.0m 7°
Q3 11:34 COLL BEHIND (set)
NDaicos 21.7m 10°
Q3 17:22 COLL BEHIND (in play)
NDaicos 39.8m 28°
Q3 20:47 COLL BEHIND (in play)
OMarkov 52.3m 10°
Q3 26:54 COLL BEHIND (in play)
JDe Goey 35.1m 32°
Q4 6:49 COLL BEHIND (in play)
SSidebottom 48.2m 48°
Q4 8:50 COLL BEHIND (set)
JElliott 41.0m 26°
Q4 22:33 COLL BEHIND (set)
TAdams 24.2m 53°

It's not like Collingwood missed a ton of set shots from 30m out directly in front.
All that predicted score rubbish is a waste of time. Anyway I am not going to argue, you deserved the win and you won. That’s the long and the short of it
 
No easier way to out yourself as a loser than by picking on a 20 year old who is a top 10 player in the game. He was BOG once again tonight, something that’ll happen more and more often
While he is a great player and had a good game, he like a lot of Pies player went missing in the 2 nd quarter when the game was on the line. Got a lot of the ball when the game was over
 

Ch7 commentator Brian Taylor goes too far, is complete laughing stock

Football commentator Brian Taylor went too far on Thursday night and has been absolutely torched across the footy world. The Lions at one point led by a game-high 38 points — but Taylor’s one-sided commentary suggested the Magpies were breathing down the Lions’ necks. He was torched on social media during the contest — particularly when his focus turned to Collingwood needing to chase percentage points in the fourth quarter.
The Lions were largely overlooked.
As they kicked away with a staggering 10 consecutive goals, Taylor’s commentary was all too much for some.



Looks like everyone was reading this thread last night, Bigfooty users leading the way again!
 
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I thought Collingwood's press was too aggressive last night.

They all seemed to push up hard towards the contest, but whenever Brisbane won the ball and bombed it long, they seemed to have a lot of free players in their own F50.
yep, 18.8 tells the story, the Lions strolled in goals multiple times, should never be that easy

Fly's style seems to be Richmond 2017-20, but too heavy on the kamikaze attack and not so much defence.

will be exposed by good sides and in finals, but plenty of time to balance it up
 
Ridiculous thing to say. They lost to Brisbane in Brisbane. Mind you not disgraced as well.

I still feel our best is as good as anyones. Enjoy our round 4 loss 😊
The way the Pies supporters and players were celebrating after winning the first week's was way over the top and looked like they were celebrating a GF win so they are definately back to earth with a thud 😉
 

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Ch7 commentator Brian Taylor goes too far, is complete laughing stock

Football commentator Brian Taylor went too far on Thursday night and has been absolutely torched across the footy world. The Lions at one point led by a game-high 38 points — but Taylor’s one-sided commentary suggested the Magpies were breathing down the Lions’ necks.


Looks like everyone was reading this thread last night, Bigfooty users leading the way again!

'Lions just need to hold on for the next couple of minutes' (end of 3Q)

Collingwood-positive bias was staggering last night
 
'Lions just need to hold on for the next couple of minutes' (end of 3Q)

Collingwood-positive bias was staggering last night
It's very embarrassing, Fox News standard commentary

We had started the season well but last night was a thrashing

10 goals to nil and never genuinely threatened after that
 
'Lions just need to hold on for the next couple of minutes' (end of 3Q)

Collingwood-positive bias was staggering last night
Yeah BT made a complete fool of himself last night, even as a neutral it annoyed the crappola out of me. Brisbane deserved better, they played a mighty game with some individual efforts that should have been the focus. I mean 10 unanswered goals, c’mon.
 
Pure jealousy
No-one is denying that he isn't a gun. But he also plays selfishly and has now shown, as last night's game clearly shows, that he gets scared in a lot of the physical aspects of the game. A gun though. But the way he got spooked out of contests was hard to watch. Jack Watts stuff.
 
Then you’re not watching properly. He’s had silky smooth hands tonight.
I literally saw him fumble about 10 times last night and his disposals were nothing. About 5 of his disposals were in a pack and he just handballed it into a players shins just to get the stat. I see a pure accumulator and nothing else. At this stage anyway.
 
I thought Collingwood's press was too aggressive last night.

They all seemed to push up hard towards the contest, but whenever Brisbane won the ball and bombed it long, they seemed to have a lot of free players in their own F50.
Same against you but, when you got on top in the middle we were exposed. The defence relies upon us winning it at the source
 
It's very embarrassing, Fox News standard commentary

We had started the season well but last night was a thrashing

10 goals to nil and never genuinely threatened after that
Everyone knows the Pies can erase a lead like that fast - the ABC radio commentary was saying as much, just not as OTT as Channel 7.

On the brightside, there was a classic 'Jobe Watson moment' on the ABC cast, don't know who it was, I think Aker was on and a couple of others, anyway went like this (as the Lions kicked away):

A:'The Pies fans are apocalyptic down there'

B:'sorry what'

A: 'The Pies fans are apocalyptic'

B: 'Do you mean apoplectic?'

A: 'Yeah whatever the word is'

Is was quite funny.
 
Has an amazing set of hands. Would make a handy intercepting defender if he wasn't such an effective marking forward.
I like him forward at the moment and if we had a proper ruckman I wouldn’t actually mind a few minutes a quarter through the ruck as he did provide a point of difference at times in there.

Would need to develop the defensive side of his game a great deal to play behind the ball
 
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