Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 8 - Blues v Pies Fri May 3rd 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[Chief]

Right: Unless it's a bad one against Carlton, I don't wanna hear constant whinging about umpiring from you lot!

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I suggest you listen to a podcast of Hoyne on SEN last night.
He said Geel are ranked 1 on Champion Data for scoring from turnover which was the reason they beat Carl - on the same stat Coll is ranked 3.
Coll is ranked 6 for defending turnover Carl ranked 13.
Geel lost clearances but stopped Carl from getting pure clearances, on most occasion thereby nullifying the advantage.

Champion Data's Daniel Hoyne joins Gerard Healy and Adam White to unpack all of the numbers behind Round 7, only on SEN!

SEN Sports - Geelong on a roll.............. go to 15.46 to 18.30

 

[Worm4]

Champion Data's Daniel Hoyne joins Gerard Healy and Adam White to unpack all of the numbers behind Round 7, only on SEN!

SEN Sports - Geelong on a roll.............. go to 15.46 to 18.30

More to the topic thread, who do you think wins this game. No offence, but we don't care about Geelong in this particular thread so maybe take your Geelong stuff somewhere else to discuss

 

[Corn Cobbers]

More to the topic thread, who do you think wins this game. No offence, but we don't care about Geelong in this particular thread so maybe take your Geelong stuff somewhere else to discuss

No offence but this "Geelong stuff" is actually about why Carlton lost their last game (spoiler: no it wasn't bad kicking or umpiring) so therefore pretty relevant to this thread

On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JayJ20]

The game always rests on taking opportunities- Coll were wasteful against GWS. We kicked poorly and had more inside 50’s. Using your logic we should have won but didn’t- that’s life.

But a fundamental flaw of lacking the ability to defend turnover with a Ranking of 13 this season is endemic and is a huge issue for Voss.

But is it really controversial to say that the favourites who have been better this year and are higher on the ladder should win? It isn't.

I'd be very happy if Collingwood beat Carlton tomorrow because of course I want Carlton to lose every game but reality is they are a good team that Collingwood will struggle to contain.

 

[Mr Meow]

Although I've tipped Carlton in a nailbiter, the points raised about Collingwood punishing turnovers (when at their best) have merit and no doubt they'll have analysed how Geelong ripped the Blues to shreds on the counter.

If Collingwood bring their pressure game and swarm on the rebound they can cut holes in the Blues even without a set of dominant forwards. The issue is how do they cope with Carlton's twin towers, minus Murphy who was an important structural player?

JDG will be a barometer as usual. When he's on, the Pies are tough to stop. When he's quiet or ineffective, they struggle.

It's shaping up to be a beauty, either way.

 

[Mr Meow]

Never seen anyone so invested in an opposition team

Not sure what last year has to do with this Friday night

You obviously haven't come across Cleansweeper.

 

[Mr Meow]

Champion Data's Daniel Hoyne joins Gerard Healy and Adam White to unpack all of the numbers behind Round 7, only on SEN!

SEN Sports - Geelong on a roll.............. go to 15.46 to 18.30

The take homes relevant to this game concerning Carlton, are that over the past 6 weeks they are:

-The 5th easiest team to score against as far as defensive 50 and what they do without the ball (i.e how they cover opposition transition)

-Hoyne says Carlton are not at a tipping point with defensive injuries that can explain this.

-It is counteracted by their dominance at clearance at in the contest.

-However they have also been the 2nd easiest side to score against from clearance in that time period. Healey says "all duck but no dinner?" Thus clearances have become a shootout scenario.

-In their great winning streak to finish 2023 they had one of the strongest profiles for defending without the ball. Hoyne says they were much harder to play against and this fits with a premiership profile.

These are the areas Carlton need to improve on and Collingwood need to exploit. Interestingly, no mention of luck was brought into the conversation.

 

[No SPIN]

But is it really controversial to say that the favourites who have been better this year and are higher on the ladder should win? It isn't.

I'd be very happy if Collingwood beat Carlton tomorrow because of course I want Carlton to lose every game but reality is they are a good team that Collingwood will struggle to contain.

If ladder position was the only variable then it would be a very boring season.

 

[JustaBattler]

Amazing insights from some DH who hasnt figured out that teams who score more than other teams win the game. Absolute genius stuff.

I've run the game through my second hand abacus which has some missing beads checked the bookie odds and have come to teh conclusion that if Collingwodo can score more points than Carlton they will win!!! ( this will make me sad for a few seconds and I wouldn't like that)

BUT

if Carlton doesn't allow Collingwood to score more points than they do- Carlton will win!!

How can these two things be true at the same time - it is a real conundrum and likely to confuse even the most mathematically gifted on here.

 

[Mr Meow]

Amazing insights from some DH who hasnt figured out that teams who score more than other teams win the game. Absolute genius stuff.

I've run the game through my second hand abacus which has some missing beads checked the bookie odds and have come to teh conclusion that if Collingwodo can score more points than Carlton they will win!!! ( this will make me sad for a few seconds and I wouldn't like that)

BUT

if Carlton doesn't allow Collingwood to score more points than they do- Carlton will win!!

How can these two things be true at the same time - it is a real conundrum and likely to confuse even the most mathematically gifted on here.

Do you think Carlton being the 5th easiest team to score against on transition is fixable in the short term? Or will it depend on personnel returning? The zone is not working (structural issue?) or the players are not working hard enough defensively. 1v1 defending across the ground has also suffered.

There were a number of examples of Carlton players running forward and not being able to track back to stop counters on the weekend. This is something Collingwood will look to exploit, so Voss will need to make sure the boys tighten up that crucial area.

 

[JustaBattler]

Do you think Carlton being the 5th easiest team to score against on transition is fixable in the short term? Or will it depend on personnel returning?

There were a number of examples of Carlton players running forward and not being able to track back to stop counters on the weekend. This is something Collingwood will look to exploit, so Voss will need to make sure the boys tighten up that crucial area.

Both.

 

[Mr Meow]

Both.

I think so too. Voss isn't the type to let these things go and it was clear he was p***ed off at some of the defensive efforts. We may well be in for a more stodgy style of game rather than an end-to-end shootout for this one.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Thank * Collingwood is the away team and will wear their clash jumper meaning all dark v all light.
Sure as * wouldn’t happen if Carlton was the away team.
Visually it will be bliss - unlike in Round 21 later this season.

Yes … it’s been keeping me up at night.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Although I've tipped Carlton in a nailbiter, the points raised about Collingwood punishing turnovers (when at their best) have merit and no doubt they'll have analysed how Geelong ripped the Blues to shreds on the counter.

If Collingwood bring their pressure game and swarm on the rebound they can cut holes in the Blues even without a set of dominant forwards. The issue is how do they cope with Carlton's twin towers, minus Murphy who was an important structural player?

JDG will be a barometer as usual. When he's on, the Pies are tough to stop. When he's quiet or ineffective, they struggle.

It's shaping up to be a beauty, either way.

I’m pretty sure The Blues have focussed on their Mids defensive position with the ball in our D50 - by all reports they had a very defence focussed week on the track.

Our team defence collapsed against the Cats last week & they took advantage - winning the ball out of the contest is one thing, defending the ball the other way after an F50 turnover is the other.

If JDG is the barometer - should the rest of the team watch on also?

I’m up for that .

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m pretty sure The Blues have focussed on their Mids defensive position with the ball in our D50 - by all reports they had a very defence focussed week on the track.

Our team defence collapsed against the Cats last week & they took advantage - winning the ball out of the contest is one thing, defending the ball the other way after an F50 turnover is the other.

If JDG is the barometer - should the rest of the team watch on also?

I’m up for that .

Very sensible post. You are one of the good ones. It's really just defending those out the back plays that was an issue. If the opposition players are in front of them, they hold up back there. Reducing turnovers is key there to stop those situations.

When JDG is playing at that 4/10 intensity level it seems somewhat infectious for his team mates. He is an enigma and not considered as certifiably elite because of that inconsistency. But when he is on...he's a difference maker. His last 3 weeks have been better. Due a down week? I reckon he'll save any flatness for the "smaller game" against the Eagles.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

More to the topic thread, who do you think wins this game. No offence, but we don't care about Geelong in this particular thread so maybe take your Geelong stuff somewhere else to discuss

Couldn't agree more, 'forgot what thread I was in' (thought a Geelong thread) and was just responding to one commenting "I suggest you listen to a podcast of Hoyne on SEN last night." so I linked SEN Podcast...... sorry about that!

 

[Gazza Greatness]

The take homes relevant to this game concerning Carlton, are that over the past 6 weeks they are:

-The 5th easiest team to score against as far as defensive 50 and what they do without the ball (i.e how they cover opposition transition)

-Hoyne says Carlton are not at a tipping point with defensive injuries that can explain this.

-It is counteracted by their dominance at clearance at in the contest.

-However they have also been the 2nd easiest side to score against from clearance in that time period. Healey says "all duck but no dinner?" Thus clearances have become a shootout scenario.

-In their great winning streak to finish 2023 they had one of the strongest profiles for defending without the ball. Hoyne says they were much harder to play against and this fits with a premiership profile.

These are the areas Carlton need to improve on and Collingwood need to exploit. Interestingly, no mention of luck was brought into the conversation.

Thanks Mr Meow for referring comments to Carlton, when posted for reasons I have no clue I thought I was in Geelong thread, perhaps one red wine to many!

PS - Might find Geelong thread to post SEN Podcast as excellent info on Geelong FC but it was still good info for Carlton none the less, even though I mistakenly thought I was in Geelong thread.... thanks again.

 

[JustaBattler]

I think so too. Voss isn't the type to let these things go and it was clear he was p***ed off at some of the defensive efforts. We may well be in for a more stodgy style of game rather than an end-to-end shootout for this one.

Durdin/Cowan/Hollands(both)/Kemp/Carroll - have all played <50 games so they are developing young players

People think about Curnow/McKay/Cripps/Walsh/Weitering - but most non Carlton watchers dont realise how many very inexperienced young players are in the mix - they will make mistakes and they will get beaten.

you add McGovern and Saad back in and half the joe the goose goals scored last week get cut off and reversed. You add a couple of other missing players and you don't get easy exits for teh joe the goose plays.

It isnt rocket science - and that si taking nothing away from Geelong.

Saying defensive issues are an issue says nothing saying it isnt injury affected is total BULLSHIT

 

[Mr Meow]

Durdin/Cowan/Hollands(both)/Kemp/Carroll - have all played <50 games so they are developing young players

People think about Curnow/McKay/Cripps/Walsh/Weitering - but most non Carlton watchers dont realise how many very inexperienced young players are in the mix - they will make mistakes and they will get beaten.

you add McGovern and Saad back in and half the joe the goose goals scored last week get cut off and reversed. You add a couple of other missing players and you don't get easy exits for teh joe the goose plays.

It isnt rocket science - and that si taking nothing away from Geelong.

Saying defensive issues are an issue says nothing saying it isnt injury affected is total BULLSHIT

I still liked your post despite flinching at the end - phwoar!

There's some merit in the young player = no defence/pressure/positional know how theory, for sure. Although it doesn't apply equally. The ONLY thing Jhye Clark has really done well this year for us has been pressuring opposition. Dempsey is strong in that area too.

It certainly hasn't just been Carlton's kids who have been front running or poor at tracking back. There has been a splash of "one way" about Carlton this season. Which is brilliant when it works, but can be punished by teams strong on turnover.

Freo and Richmond should not be getting close to this Blues side. Adelaide should not have beaten them.

Hoyne's analysis that highlights Carlton's poor work without the ball (and its effect on defending opposition ball movement) covers the past 6 week period. Not just the GWS/Geelong games. Gov played 66% game time against Adelaide. Fair enough Saad was only 29% game time before his injury. But we can only really say they were both missing the last two weeks, not the past 6. So it goes back as far as the Richmond game.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m pretty sure The Blues have focussed on their Mids defensive position with the ball in our D50 - by all reports they had a very defence focussed week on the track.

Our team defence collapsed against the Cats last week & they took advantage - winning the ball out of the contest is one thing, defending the ball the other way after an F50 turnover is the other.

If JDG is the barometer - should the rest of the team watch on also?

I’m up for that .

I only just got this. I haven't been up to date with the projected ins and outs. I thought you meant his tendency to spectate this year! Anyway, well played.

 

[bourbons]

-Hoyne says Carlton are not at a tipping point with defensive injuries that can explain this.

Oh well, if Hoyne says so it must be true. Makes sense too, no way having an entire starting defensive line out including 2 of your best interceptors and ball users off half back would impact your opposition's ability to score much

 

[JustaBattler]

I still liked your post despite flinching at the end - phwoar!

There's some merit in the young player = no defence/pressure/positional know how theory, for sure. Although it doesn't apply equally. The ONLY thing Jhye Clark has really done well this year for us has been pressuring opposition. Dempsey is strong in that area too.

It certainly hasn't just been Carlton's kids who have been front running or poor at tracking back. There has been a splash of "one way" about Carlton this season. Which is brilliant when it works, but can be punished by teams strong on turnover.

Freo and Richmond should not be getting close to this Blues side. Adelaide should not have beaten them.

Hoyne's analysis that highlights Carlton's poor work without the ball (and its effect on defending opposition ball movement) covers the past 6 week period. Not just the GWS/Geelong games. Gov played 66% game time against Adelaide. Fair enough Saad was only 29% game time before his injury. But we can only really say they were both missing the last two weeks, not the past 6. So it goes back as far as the Richmond game.

People either understand "compounding" or they don't. Doesn't matter - time always tells.

 

[Mr Meow]

Oh well, if Hoyne says so it must be true. Makes sense too, no way having an entire starting defensive line out including 2 of your best interceptors and ball users off half back would impact your opposition's ability to score much

It covers the last 6 weeks.

 

[Mr Meow]

People either understand "compounding" or they don't. Doesn't matter - time always tells.

Indeed. It matters not because the Richmond and Fremantle games were closed out anyway, by hook or crook.

5-2 with a whole lot Voss will optimise and improve on is a great position to be in.

 

[bourbons]

It covers the last 6 weeks.

Check oppo scores against us for the last 3 compared to the first 3. Averages of 105 and 75.

Like I said, no difference at all really