AFL AFL Futures 2021

[4THAWN]

Which bit mate?
I can't wait to be taught maths by the guy who wrote:
2.60 x 75 = 0.

You keep telling me to "stop" and tell me how "i don't get it", without actually giving any explanation as to how this can possibly be true:



C'mon Newton, whip out your abacus and explain to us poor dum dums how that statement can possibly be true.

ummm yep thats what I wrote okay buddy.

 

[The_Steadier]

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

On behalf of all the dum dums of the world, can you please please please please please please please please explain your mathematical wizardry that makes your above statement true?

I am simply dying to hear it.

 

[iluvparis]

On behalf of all the dum dums of the world, can you please please please please please please please please explain your mathematical wizardry that makes your above statement true?

I am simply dying to hear it.

Wow

 

[dontlimitme]

this thread sucks now

 

[The_Steadier]

Wow

You don't honestly believe people who place a $75 bet on a $2.60 shot make $0 profit if it gets up do you?

Even IF the odds are a 100% true reflection of the chances of occurance, the punter still walks away with $120 more in their pocket than they started with.

Am I speaking English?

Seriously- can ANYONE have a go at explaining this:

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

Because the poster has seemingly disappeared after being called out on his bs, and all paris can muster up is "wow".

 

[4THAWN]

Am I speaking English?

no, and thats the problem here.

 

[The_Steadier]

no, and thats the problem here.

You're back mate, brilliant.

Explain how this works please:

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

 

[Jugada]

This is one of those arguments where there is just too much shit to unpack to bother with so best off just sitting back and hoping Tracc takes the medal for the lols

 

[burge13]

This is one of those arguments where there is just too much sh*t to unpack to bother with so best off just sitting back and hoping Tracc takes the medal for the lols

Dogs win but Oliver/Petracca NS would throw a cat amongst the pigeons as best I can tell

 

[The_Steadier]

This is one of those arguments where there is just too much sh*t to unpack to bother with

Hardly.

54 dogs summed it up in a few lines, (except for omitting that a dees no flag result would also equate to a breakeven vs my option)

I know we've done this one to death, but just to clarify it would have been either:

$75 Dees H2H @ 2.60 = $195 ($125 profit)

or

Oliver @ $8 × 25 = $125 profit after $75 total stake
Tracc @ $9 × 25 = $150 profit after $75 total stake
Gawn @ $18 × 25 = $375 profit after $75 total stake



So with option 2 vs option 1

Oliver = break even
Trac = $25 better
Gawn = $250 better
Other 19 Dees players (+ possible Dogs) = $75 worse


Is that it in a nutshell?

 

[ash_1050]

This thread is now officially dumber than the bodybuilding thread arguing over how many days there are in a fortnight.

 

[54Dogs]

This thread is now officially dumber than the bodybuilding thread arguing over how many days there are in a fortnight.

That bodybuilding one is the best thread I have ever seen. lololololol

This post was next level

 

[burge13]

It reminds me of Shaq explaining its cheaper to only half fill your gas tank and top up rather than spend more to fill the whole way

 

[The_Steadier]

Quite the hall of fame isn't it?

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

Shaq explaining its cheaper to only half fill your gas tank and top up rather than spend more to fill the whole way

 

[4THAWN]

You're back mate, brilliant.

Explain how this works please:

Expected return - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[The_Steadier]

Expected return - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Duuuuuude.
You're all messed up bro.

I can do the REAL probabilistic calculation for you if you like?


It is evident you are swimming in the deep end and you've lost your floaties... because your attempt at using probabilistic equations was a complete dumpster fire:

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

Expected return from your wikipedia link
E [R] = R1P1 + R2P2

Where:
R = possible return and
P = probability.

Using your supposition that the odds before the prelim of $2.60 reflected the true probability of a dees flag- that equates to the dees being a 38.5% chance at winning the flag before the prelim.

P1 = 38.5% the probability of a dees flag.

R1 = $195 because we are talking about a $75 bet which would return $195 @ $2.60

P2 = simply 100% - 38.5% given we are talking about a bet of whether the dees win the flag or not.
So P2 = 61.5%

R2 = minus $75
because that is the return on the dees not winning the flag.

So plugging that into your wikipedia formula E [R] = R1P1 + R2P2

Expected return = $75.10 - $46.13 = $28.98

So when you said it was a $0 profit, which part of your wikipedia page did you forget to read?

lets say The dee's were a TRUE $2.60 chance when this was posted. Expected returns on a $75 Demons straight bet are $75 ($0 profit)

Where's your calculations mate?
Why are my ones above wrong?

 

[4THAWN]

true odds = 2.60 (38.4615%)
outlay = 75

75x2.6x0.384615 = $75

if the event occurred 1000 times and each time you bet $75 on the demons at $2.60, and the demons won 38.46whatever percent of the time you would return 75k.

so you would have spent 75 thousand and returned 75 thousand or on average spent $75 and returned $75 for a profit of $0

the simplest of concepts.

 

[burge13]

Over to you The_Steadier

 

[The_Steadier]

true odds = 2.60 (38.4615%)
outlay = 75

75x2.6x0.384615 = $75

Why on earth are you multiplying the same factor twice?

The $2.60 is simply the reciprocal of 0.384615.

They are the same thing, only expressed in two different ways.

Derp.

Where did you get that formula from?


Your wikipedia link says that expected return =
E [R] = R1P1 + R2P2 + R3P3 etc etc.



Where on earth did you get this equation from?:

75x2.6x0.384615 = $75
A weetbix box?

Multiplying a number by its reciprocal is always going to equal 1.

Congratulations good will hunting, you managed to write:
75x2.6x0.384615 = $75

When what you really wrote was 75 x 1 = $75.

75 x 1 = 75 folks.

Lets call NASA and let them know.

 

[Jugada]

I've gotten to the point where neither side of this argument makes sense anymore

 

[Robo87]

I've gotten to the point where neither side of this argument makes sense anymore

yep agree, its the edge of bringing this thread into disrepute

 

[Angus Young]

Anyone got any decent futures pending on the Dees or Dogs to win the flag?

 

[5 Bucks]

Anyone got any decent futures pending on the Dees or Dogs to win the flag?

Got on the Dees in November when they brought BBB in just because the list looked like it was lacking nothing.

May and Lever in the key posts, Salem gun rebounder, Max best ruck, Petracca, Oliver gun inside mids, Langdon elite wing... Only thing missing was a gun key forward.

I did place 2 other premiership winner bets. Geelong at $6 and Western Bulldogs at $15 for similar reasons. Geelong were already great and brought in Jezza, while the Dogs keeping Dunkley and adding Treloar meant their midfield was too strong to not be dominant.

Good result [emoji4]

 

[Lensen]

this mf thinks the expected return of a $50 bet on a coin toss at evens is $50

 

[The_Steadier]

this mf thinks the expected return of a $50 bet on a coin toss at evens is $50

You're talking about maths mate.

Use an equation like a big boy.

Your statement makes no sense.
If you are talking about 'expected returns' in a probabilistic sense (as opposed to real world where 'expected return' = stake + profit)

Then the equation for flipping a coin and betting $50 on either heads or tails (with no bookie margin) is:

Step 1:

Expected return E [R] = R1P1 + R2P2

(R= Return, P= Probability)


Step 2:

Let's now use that formula:

True odds = $2 or 50% chance.

Winning bet = R1P1
R1 = $100 because you're betting $50 on a $2 shot
P1 = 50%

Step 3:
Losing bet = R2P2
R2 = -$50 because you lost your stake.
P2 = 50%

Step 4:

Put those numbers into the expected return equation from Step 1:

Expected return E [R] = R1P1 + R2P2

Expected return E [R] = $50 - $25 = $25

The "expected return" from a probabilistic perspective on betting $50 on a coin flip is $25.

Where did I do wrong mate or do you owe me an apology?