AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Angus Young]

Imagine where our game would be without the players of British and Irish descent

LOL...righto mate.

 

[BringBackTorps]

The Australian 22.6.21

The independent Report commissioned by 12 NRL clubs (by the Gemba Group sports' consultancy company) into a 17th NRL club in Brisbane has been leaked.
It indicated its major impacts will be, overall, detrimental to the NRL.
The Report assumes the NRL H & A season would increase by 12 games pa, so there would be increased broadcast Rights' $.

A game at Suncorp every week would increase the ratings, crowds, & NRL MSM coverage for the NRL in Qld.- so, on this basis only, would, IMO, benefit RL in Qld.

www.theaustralian.com.au

"The ARL Commission’s plan to expand the NRL competition is facing a significant hurdle after an independent 200-page report commissioned by 12 renegade clubs raised serious concerns over the damage a 17th team could do to the existing sides in Queensland and the credibility of the competition itself.
The Gemba Group finalised their investigation into expansion last week and it is understood they held a zoom meeting on Tuesday to discuss the findings with the clubs who paid for the report.

Sources close to the clubs confirmed the report raised serious concerns, most notably whether there was enough player depth to add another team and whether diluting the talent would lead to more blowout scorelines.

Further, the report suggested a new team would cannibalise support at existing clubs and lead to inflationary pressure not just on players at the three Queensland clubs, but also on coaching, high performance and administrative staff.

The Gemba Group painted a particularly dark picture for the existing Queensland teams as well as the Melbourne Storm, suggesting they were most vulnerable to being attacked by a new outfit seeking to sign players with a desire to play in Queensland.

The report added that there was some upside in expansion – more teams would mean more games and potentially generate more revenue. However the existing clubs point out that you don’t need to add another team to create more games.

They can do that on their own. The ARL Commission is expected to be furnished with the report on Wednesday morning as they prepare to step up their talks with the three groups bidding to join the NRL.

The Commission has called for expressions of interest from potential new clubs, having asked them to justify why they should be part of a new competition via an online portal.

Those talks will be crucial, but so too will discussions with the existing clubs given the findings by the Gemba Group. A number of clubs have been agitating for some evidence that adding a new side stacks up, both fiscally and from a competition perspective.

They are also demanding some form of financial compensation because the ARL Commission would be giving up a stake in the game by adding a 17th team. They now have greater leverage given the findings of the Gemba Group.

The existing 16 clubs are all members of the ARL Commission, effectively making them shareholders in the game itself. They believe they should be compensated – potentially to the tune of $40 million– in return for handing over a place in the NRL (all emphases mine)".

 

[Gigantor]

It's extraordinary that a 2nd team in the 2nd biggest RL market in the world is viewed as likely to cannabalise the three other Qld teams, one of whom is some 1,500+ km away.

The other thing of note is that 12 clubs are against expansion (12 out of 16!), actually, make that at least 12, they're the ones we know about.

The last point is that the decision to grant entry to the Suns and Giants was unanimous amongst all 16 AFL clubs of the day.

 

[threesixpio]

Blardy move the doggies North they chuck it so often.

I do think it’s time for latte sippers like me to invade regional Qld with our solar powered coffee machines though. Barnaby likes this post

 

[Rob]

It's extraordinary that a 2nd team in the 2nd biggest RL market in the world is viewed as likely to cannabalise the three other Qld teams, one of whom is some 1,500+ km away.

The other thing of note is that 12 clubs are against expansion (12 out of 16!), actually, make that at least 12, they're the ones we know about.

The last point is that the decision to grant entry to the Suns and Giants was unanimous amongst all 16 AFL clubs of the day.

Big difference is that the bulk of NRL clubs are privately owned. When the decision makers have their own money at stake their perspective completely changes. It becomes more about self preservation and self promotion as opposed to the good of the game, or even the good of the league.

 

[NoobPie]

It's extraordinary that a 2nd team in the 2nd biggest RL market in the world is viewed as likely to cannabalise the three other Qld teams, one of whom is some 1,500+ km away.

The other thing of note is that 12 clubs are against expansion (12 out of 16!), actually, make that at least 12, they're the ones we know about.

The last point is that the decision to grant entry to the Suns and Giants was unanimous amongst all 16 AFL clubs of the day.

If you look at the report, over 10% of people (NRL fans) in what is presumably all of the non-gold coast part of greater Brisbane are Cowboys fans.

That may well mainly be "expats" from the north or it could be anti-broncos types. But even in Ipswich and Logan there are twice as many as gold coast fans according to whatever survey.



This is the problem with expansion into saturated areas - there is a spectrum that runs from complete failure on one end or deeply cutting in to existing fan bases on the other.

 

[Fire]

If you look at the report, over 10% of people in what is presumably all of the non-gold coast part of greater Brisbane are Cowboys fans.

In terms of population that would almost equal the size of north Queensland

 

[werdna78]

IMO a second team in Brisbane won't work. Sure there is enough population, but apart from the corporates who really wants it?

 

[NoobPie]

In terms of population that would almost equal the size of north Queensland

It should read "NRL fans"

 

[Hoops]

Could the Broncos split, have the Woolloongabba (only Bris suburb I know) Broncos - predominately yellow based south of the river and the Brisbane Bandits - predominately maroon based north of the river.

I'm not being serious and I don't really care, The NRL have created this monster and let the club be a law unto itself and has now stymied any chance of successful expansion into Brisbane and all I can do is laugh.

 

[Walshawk]

IMO a second team in Brisbane won't work. Sure there is enough population, but apart from the corporates who really wants it?

The fact that 49% of the population do not follow the Broncos tells me there are lots of people who would want a second team. One RL team in Brisbane is the strangest anomaly in Australian sport. It is stranger than having only one team in Perth.
But, like most things in NRL land, no one can ever agree on what to do. There is no long term strategy around anything. You can bet that the NRL will f*ck this up. Which is why AFL will eventually take over Queensland (within 20 years), then NSW (50 years).

 

[werdna78]

The fact that 49% of the population do not follow the Broncos tells me there are lots of people who would want a second team. One RL team in Brisbane is the strangest anomaly in Australian sport. It is stranger than having only one team in Perth.
But, like most things in NRL land, no one can ever agree on what to do. There is no long term strategy around anything. You can bet that the NRL will f*ck this up. Which is why AFL will eventually take over Queensland (within 20 years), then NSW (50 years).

Agree the NRL will f*ck this up, IMO people are already moving away from watching RL, this is a knee jerk reaction to the increase in support of AR, in QLD. They needed a second team years ago.

Broncos are stinking it up and it will be like that for a few years.

Lions are flying and have built a strong list, that plays entertaining footy and are winning games, to get people through the door.

 

[Fire]

It should read "NRL fans"

It does.

But assuming a similar % of people follow the sport in NQ then it's still apples to apples.

 

[Hoops]

The fact that 49% of the population do not follow the Broncos tells me there are lots of people who would want a second team. One RL team in Brisbane is the strangest anomaly in Australian sport. It is stranger than having only one team in Perth.
But, like most things in NRL land, no one can ever agree on what to do. There is no long term strategy around anything. You can bet that the NRL will f*ck this up. Which is why AFL will eventually take over Queensland (within 20 years), then NSW (50 years).

If you compare no. of teams in Sydney v Brisbane and look at the population alone Brisbane should have 3-4 teams. The fact it only has 1 is funny as *. What Rupert wants is what Rupert gets.

 

[NoobPie]

It does.

But assuming a similar % of people follow the sport in NQ then it's still apples to apples.

Apologies, was correcting my own post as I had said "people" rather than "NRL fans" originally.

In terms of the region named "nth queensland" you would be definitely right. Throw in far north quensalnd and mackay and it would be a closer call

I suspect that a lot of them would have a connection to mid to far north queensland

 

[Fire]

Apologies, was correcting my own post as I had said "people" rather than "NRL fans" originally.

In terms of the region named "nth queensland" you would be definitely right. Throw in far north quensalnd and mackay and it would be a closer call

I suspect that a lot of them would have a connection to mid to far north queensland

Whether the numbers are exactly the same or not isn't really the point tho; just saying that it's amazing to think that the cowboys would have at least a similar number of supporters in Brisbane as they do in North queensland; however it's defined.

 

[Walshawk]

If you compare no. of teams in Sydney v Brisbane and look at the population alone Brisbane should have 3-4 teams. The fact it only has 1 is funny as fu**. What Rupert wants is what Rupert gets.

If you are starting the NRL from scratch you would have 14 teams - 3 x Bris, GC, NQ, 4 x Syd, Newcastle, Woolongong, Canberra, Melb & NZ.

 

[NoobPie]

The fact that 49% of the population do not follow the Broncos tells me there are lots of people who would want a second team. One RL team in Brisbane is the strangest anomaly in Australian sport. It is stranger than having only one team in Perth.
But, like most things in NRL land, no one can ever agree on what to do. There is no long term strategy around anything. You can bet that the NRL will f*ck this up. Which is why AFL will eventually take over Queensland (within 20 years), then NSW (50 years).

I think the question is "how many of which fans would move their existing allegiance to the second Brisbane team?"

If it is mainly the minority that support presumably NSW teams or the Storm or NQ, then it may not be a terrible outcome at least as far as membership and attendance goes overall

Realistically though I don't think there is any reason to think that is what will happen. There is no reason that people who have kept their NSW team to this point or go for NQ because of their origins will jump to the new team

Given how long its been since the Broncos started and the lack of comparable geographic divide like freo / south of the river or Port Adelaide like behemoth, it is almost certainly the case that this new team will struggle. There is no reason why tv ratings would increase either and you would need two extra teams to get an extra game

So a weaker set of options to start with (as much as the titans have struggled there is no other area in SEQ of either size or identity) and, as you say, a track record of not actually overcoming parochial interests enough to make stuff happen.

 

[NoobPie]

Whether the numbers are exactly the same or not isn't really the point tho; just saying that it's amazing to think that the cowboys would have at least a similar number of supporters in Brisbsbe as they do in North queensland; however it's defined.

Yes, yes it is.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. SMH A. Proszenko 23.6.21


" The introduction of a new Queensland NRL team would generate between $15.5 million and $33.7 million, not enough money to offset the negative impacts on existing clubs, according to a report.

While there would be some benefits to the game as a whole – in the form of [12] additional games and revenue – the research by consultancy company GEMBA found it wasn’t sufficient to offset the damage to existing clubs, particularly those in Queensland.

A 17th club would bring in between $13m & $25m in additional broadcast funding, while non-broadcast revenue would increase by $2.5 million to $8.7 million. However, several clubs the Herald has spoken to believe that the status quo should remain unless there is a guarantee that an extra $30 million to $40 million is there to be distributed.
For a new club to be sustainable, it would cost $23.6 million to run and would need to make $10 million a year. It would also require what GEMBA describes as 148,000 “fanatical” supporters, as well as 10,000 *members, to be viable. In order to do so, the new franchise would likely need to take fans from existing clubs, while there will be further competition for sponsors, players and other human talent.

*(A graphic in the Gemba Report, however, states that Brisbane 2 would need to recruit about 14,000 members to be sustainable).

The findings are of particular concern to the Broncos, Titans and Cowboys, who are already struggling on the field. The research states that existing clubs could lose up to three players from their roster if a 17th team is given the green light, further diluting talent and adversely affecting the quality of matches.
While Queensland players make up 25 per cent of all NRL players, a fourth Queensland team would directly compete for those wishing to remain in the state, amplifying the pressure on the existing sides.

So concerned are some club bosses, that there have been discussions about engaging legal assistance to review the ARL Commission constitution with a view to finding a lever to block expansion. The Herald has been told the existing clubs don’t have veto power over the issue, but they could seek to introduce it via a special general meeting, at which amendments to the constitution can be introduced. However, such a development would require the 16 clubs and two state bodies to be in alignment, which is an unlikely outcome.

The upsides to expansion include an increase in viewing numbers of between 3% & 10%, a projected 5% increase in match-day attendances and a boost of between 4% & 7% in television audiences.

However, the report concludes that the extra costs and risks do not make it an appealing enough proposition.

Titans chief executive Steve Mitchell [said] “Out of that there is an opportunity to extract some commercial upside from the broadcast and non-broadcast revenue from sponsorship and wagering revenue.
“However, the total of that revenue, we have fears it doesn’t underpin the risks around the cannibalisation of fans in Queensland in particular and the impost on clubs.
“You’ve got to bring in 34 new players into the competition, there’s the dilution of the current playing group. We’re already at an unusual time in the game with increasing blowouts, so there’s risk there. And then you have inflationary [pressures], we’ve already got managers pausing player retention conversations because they want to see what this other team is doing.

Report into NRL expansion concludes 17th team doesn’t add up
A report commissioned by 12 NRL clubs has found that the addition of a 17th NRL franchise will do more harm than good to the competition.

www.smh.com.au
(my emphases, & words, in brackets)".


EDIT:

It should be noted the NRL has already signed a Rights' agreement with Foxtel to the end of 2027- so probably will not obtain extra $ for the additional 12 games pa until 2028.
It has signed with Nine to end of 2022.







2. Wookie states on sports industry 25.6, re Brisbane v. Geelong at the Gabba yesterday

"The biggest Brisbane AFL audience for a regular season match since 2010 tuned into Seven...with 107k local fans (does not include Foxtel)...Brisbane's average audience is up 38% on 2019, the biggest growth of any market on Seven...".

This Gabba Geelong game was "...helped by (a) being on the main channel & (b) no NRL last night".

 

[Gigantor]

Discussion surrounding NRL expansion is always interesting.
Let us put aside for the moment just how insane it is that Brisbane still has just the one team in the NRL.
The fascinating aspect about this GEMBA report is that a dozen clubs who are against expansion commissioned the report.
And well, knock me over with a feather, page after page warns of the massive risks, and how revenues are unlikely to exceed the costs, and that it will eat away at all the other clubs, etc, etc.
After all those dire warnings, after pages of evidence of impending losses and struggles, you're sort of still left wondering: how is it possible that a big league city like Brissie can't support two NRL clubs???

 

[Established1870]

The NRL is ****ed because they have too many Sydney teams who are either constantly on the verge of bankruptcy or rely solely on pokies. A second Brisbane team should have come in years ago ahead of one of the many Sydney based battler clubs. Southern Orcas and a Perth side should of happened too by now but again, the NRL can't expand too much otherwise they'd probably stretch themselves too thin.


Honestly think if footy keeps growing like it is in QLD, the league should put in a 3rd club in FNQ based in Cairns with occasional games in Townsville and other cities around the area. Cairns in particular has a great local following for the game so it'd make sense to base it there. 3 teams in QLD (and 4 in NSW) is definitely doable but it'd be a 50 year plan not a 10 year one.

 

[MSB ROYS]

IMO a second team in Brisbane won't work. Sure there is enough population, but apart from the corporates who really wants it?

The Crushers were average from both team and administrative sides but this was also during another disaster called Super League.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Discussion surrounding NRL expansion is always interesting.
Let us put aside for the moment just how insane it is that Brisbane still has just the one team in the NRL.
The fascinating aspect about this GEMBA report is that a dozen clubs who are against expansion commissioned the report.
And well, knock me over with a feather, page after page warns of the massive risks, and how revenues are unlikely to exceed the costs, and that it will eat away at all the other clubs, etc, etc.
After all those dire warnings, after pages of evidence of impending losses and struggles, you're sort of still left wondering: how is it possible that a big league city like Brissie can't support two NRL clubs???

It can but not under the current NRL structure, which is really focused on Sydney. My major concern for the game is the number of HIAs per game, which is often between say 3-8 per game. Has this been happening for years or are we just more aware?

 

[Power Raid]

what will be interesting to witness is the financial impact on NRL and AFL, as they can no longer obtain finance or insurance as ESG principles are captured under equatorial principles due to concussion and brain injuries

I dare say soccer will overtake both NRL and AFL within 40 years