AFL round 1

[happy_punter]

Good news, sportsbet now has PYOL for AFL matches!!!

 

[jimmyclean]

Good news, sportsbet now has PYOL for AFL matches!!!

Released round 1 PYO lines before Centrebet, smart move by Sportsbet.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Leaving the Adelaide v Haw game out of it now Tippets not playing. Not final, as will wait for the teams to come out but this looks like being my bet.

I will be betting 20 units a game. 10 units on a multi and 10 units elsewhere.

Carlton v Richmond - Carlton -9.5
Ess v Bulldogs - Bulldogs -9.5
Melb v Sydney - Sydney +7.5
WCE v North Melb - North Melb +6.5

@ $10.96

 

[happy_punter]

melbourne vs sydney is confusing for me, need to see how these two teams play in the first few games. good luck with that +7.5 swans pick.

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Good news, sportsbet now has PYOL for AFL matches!!!

This is great news! Always like the idea of PYOL, but cbf opening a centrebet account.

 

[Mudeo]

Alright ill give my first multi a try now and see how much it changes when i have seen how each team is shaping up. I will be having 1 $20 multi each round and depending on what team is playing each round will be deciding whether the game is worth it or not.
So this weeks games i have decided that Brisbane vs Freo and Melbourne vs Sydney so far with Adelaide vs Hawthorn im still thinking about. And i am using The Tote btw.

Carlton Under 39.5 @ $2.12
St. Kilda Under 39.5 @ $2.4
Port Adelaide Line 46.5+ @ 1.9
Western Bulldogs over 16 or more @ $2.1
Adelaide Under 39.5 @ $2.75
North H2H @ $2.22

Total Odds= $129.37

Thinking of doing one with adelaide and one with hawthorn just in case.

 

[SpecialComments]

So much value this weekend.

The only game i'm sure about is Carlton to d. Richmond and obviously the Pies over Port.

I'm gonna punt risky this weekend so i'll probly go the :

Carlton/Essendon/West Coast @ 5.27

&

Brisbane is also the value single bet of the round at 2.25

 

[Kahuna]

Brisbane plus 3 goals at $1.50 is lovely value. With Freo under pressure with injuries and being away from home with a Brisbane team that is going to come out hungry if Freo are to win it isn't going to be by much. This is excellent value imo.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Brisbane plus 3 goals at $1.50 is lovely value. With Freo under pressure with injuries and being away from home with a Brisbane team that is going to come out hungry if Freo are to win it isn't going to be by much. This is excellent value imo.

Good value but I like the H2H better still. Im a Freo supporter but I get the feeling Freo had a better season last year than expected (first 14 weeks was pretty much an injury free side).

Matt De Boer, Barlow, Ibboston, Roger Hayden, Morabito, Mzungu, Schammer, and add in the harmstring problems with Hill and Mundy (2 important engine players) for Freo and I see this as no easy game at all. Freo should never start favourites away in my opinion.

Brisbane > 39.5 points also looks worth a bet at $8.00 .

 

[Lensen]

Explanations are a little flimsy given it's round one but I'm glad footy's back again!

Bets for round 1:

1 unit Richmond @ $3.50 (Centrebet)
I think Carlton will start deserved favourites but there's a good feeling at Tigerland and I'm not sure of the Blues without a couple of key talls down back. I had this as a $1.55/$2.82 game so happy to take the Tigers at a half stake.

2 units Adelaide @ $2.11 (Centrebet)
I don't like the Hawks on the road and with Hodge either out or injured that will hurt them. Crows I think are in for a big year and will be looking to show that round one. I had this as a $1.90/$2.11 game.

2 units Brisbane @ $2.42 (Centrebet)
Really, really like Brisbane here. They start seasons well until Brown's body falls apart and even in their annus horribilus last year they were very competitive with a strong Freo outfit at home. Freo have injury concerns of their own so I'm very happy with Brisbane's price. I had this as a $1.80/$2.25 game.

2 units Sydney @ $2.39 (Centrebet)
It's a weird betting game this one - I think Sydney are deserved favourites despite the shambolic performance in the corresponding game last year but Melbourne are reasonably heavy favourites which I find strange. I think Melbourne are overrated based on their youth and being talked up due to a soft draw but I like the Swans here. I had it as a $2.25/$1.80 game.

1 unit North Melbourne @ $2.38
I think West Coast should be slight favourites but they really aren't that good and if the North boys come prepared to run and without niggles they are in for a really good show here. Happy to take the overs as I had it as a $1.80/$2.18 game.

Good luck all.

 

[jimmyclean]

2 units Sydney @ $2.39 (Centrebet)
It's a weird betting game this one - I think Sydney are deserved favourites despite the shambolic performance in the corresponding game last year but Melbourne are reasonably heavy favourites which I find strange. I think Melbourne are overrated based on their youth and being talked up due to a soft draw but I like the Swans here. I had it as a $2.25/$1.80 game.

Good luck all.

I don't want to sound like a totally bias supporter but over the past 3 years and 9 games at the MCG Sydney are 1 and 8, and the single win came against Richmond in 2009.

 

[Daytripper]

Two things here.

Richmonds pre-season form has been nothing short of atrocious. I think its a big mistake to ignore current form and simply write it off as not trying. Cartlon have belted them in previous years and quite frankly nothing they have shown so far makes me think Thursday night will be any different.

Secondly, how Melbourne are favourites against Sydney is one of the great mysteries of the world. They were beaten by Brisbane (yes Brisbane) in Melbourne two weeks ago and whilst they had a few players out, Brisbane weren't exactly at full strength either. They then backed that up fielding an almost full strength side with a fairly insipid performance against Hawthorn.

They come up against a side that was one kick away from a Prelim final last year, with a new coach and to top it off they are $2.39 outsiders.

Seriously, what the hell is going on there ?

 

[jimmyclean]

Secondly, how Melbourne are favourites against Sydney is one of the great mysteries of the world. They were beaten by Brisbane (yes Brisbane) in Melbourne two weeks ago and whilst they had a few players out, Brisbane weren't exactly at full strength either. They then backed that up fielding an almost full strength side with a fairly insipid performance against Hawthorn.

They come up against a side that was one kick away from a Prelim final last year, with a new coach and to top it off they are $2.39 outsiders.

Seriously, what the hell is going on there ?

You'll find that apart from Jonathan Brown Brisbane were actually at full strength.

 

[Gift]

As some one said before, its due to the match being at the MCG

 

[arkie]

Does any site as good as say covers.com exist for the AFL?

Would be nice to see.

 

[Daytripper]

You'll find that apart from Jonathan Brown Brisbane were actually at full strength.

And Adcock.
Plus missing from last years side Rischetelli and Brennan.

Thats 4 key players out from a side that was terrible last year and has been widely tipped to finish around the bottom.

 

[TurboBreuster]

This week I like:
Carlton 1-40
The tigers will provide a challenge but Carlton will be to strong.

Geelong 1-40
This game is a coin toss and will be close. I will take the good odds available on the Cats.

WBD ATS
If the Bulldogs break even in the clearences and inside 50's than they should win by a at least a couple goals. I also believe that a small nible at the ESS/WBD 1h/2h double might be worthwhile.

Melbourne ATS
I think that in general people are been a bit to pessimistic about the dees for this game. Sydney were an ordinary away team last year and they struggled to compete in this contest last year.

 

[StringyDog]

Tipping 101, Round 1;

Tigers are hopeless, poor skills, shocking decision makers and they just went out and got more of them in Grigg and Houli, Tip Carlton.

Melbourne can only win in 1 place...MCG, Sydney are pathetic at MCG, Tip Melbourne

Don't tip Freo away from home, especially an underdone and undermanned Freo, Tip Brisbane

Essendon have been dogs bitch for half a decade, Tip Western Bulldogs

Collingwood is obvious, the other 3 are hard.

 

[footballfreak]

Brisbane is definitely the team to have a punt on. Underdone Freo. Who are probably in a even worse position injury wise than at the end of last season. Brisbane with their full team available.

 

[Syd Kennets]

sportsbet.com.au have got pick your own line's up for this week.

here's my multi.

Carlton -11.5 @1.62
Collingwood -23.5 @1.32
Adelaide +21.5 @1.30
Doggies +15.5 @1.24

$50 on @ $3.45

Edit: Whoops, didn't see it had already been mentioned, just excited!

 

[The Mellow Johnies]

You'll find that apart from Jonathan Brown Brisbane were actually at full strength.

I think you will find that apart from Jonathan Brown, Josh Drummond, Matthew Leuenberger, Jed Adcock, and Todd Banfield the Lions were at full strength.

But that is neither here nor there, it was only a practice match and Melbourne were also missing players. NAB form is no form.

The Lions will do better than the negative Victorian Media bashers (who do no research) and media "sheep" followers make out.

There is money to be made on the Lions this year, particularly at home, their best 22 is very competitive, it is their depth that will be the problem as the year wears on.


But back on topic, this is a punting thread.

Syd vs Melb is the hardest match of the round, Melbourne love playing at the 'G but Swans are probably the better team and dislike playing at the 'G.

Under 15.5 either team looks the way to go!

 

[Kahuna]

Exactly Brisbane aren't even that bad, its just Aker said they would finish last then every 'journo' started saying it also. Johnno Brown will win them a few games by himself and with guys like Power and Black still around they will do alright at home. You can get them at very nice odds. Luenberger, Adcock, Drummond, Merett, Clark are not rubbish players. I am sure they have drafted a few good kids also "Polac?".

 

[Dr Awkward]

Exactly Brisbane aren't even that bad, its just Aker said they would finish last then every 'journo' started saying it also. Johnno Brown will win them a few games by himself and with guys like Power and Black still around they will do alright at home. You can get them at very nice odds. Luenberger, Adcock, Drummond, Merett, Clark are not rubbish players. I am sure they have drafted a few good kids also "Polac?".

Polec.

Yes, some people have been overstating how uncompetitive Brisbane will be this year. Whilst they are completely f***** for about the next 8 years and I would say that I have never seen a team that is further from winning a premiership, the short-term impacts of their trading issues has been a little overstated and they should be a good chance of winning in these sort of games at home for at least the first half of the year (until injuries set in and they are relying on their extremely low depth). I have them at about $1.80 to win this week, so good value.

 

[Daytripper]

INAB form is no form.

This seems to be a myth whereby if people say it enough times it must be true.

In the last 5 years, only 5 teams that played semi finals in the NAB cup missed the finals that season. Thats a 75% strike rate.

It gets better for the last 3 years. Only 2 teams have missed the finals meaning the strike rate is 83%.

And at least one of the grand finalists has come from the NAB semi final participants the last 4 seasons.

Write off pre season form at your peril in my opinion. In fact, you should be betting on those teams with momentum as the market has probably under-rated the significance of these matches.

 

[The Mellow Johnies]

Polec.

Yes, some people have been overstating how uncompetitive Brisbane will be this year. Whilst they are completely f***** for about the next 8 years and I would say that I have never seen a team that is further from winning a premiership, the short-term impacts of their trading issues has been a little overstated and they should be a good chance of winning in these sort of games at home for at least the first half of the year (until injuries set in and they are relying on their extremely low depth). I have them at about $1.80 to win this week, so good value.

Interesting observation, I actually believe Brisbane will only improve from this year with fantastic recruiting over past two years and a complete football department overhaul, not to mention 2 extra draft picks in the first round (compensation) making their drafting position quite strong.

But I am biased and you would be an expert in your knowledge of teams completely f****** and a long way from a flag.

This seems to be a myth whereby if people say it enough times it must be true.

In the last 5 years, only 5 teams that played semi finals in the NAB cup missed the finals that season. Thats a 75% strike rate.

It gets better for the last 3 years. Only 2 teams have missed the finals meaning the strike rate is 83%.

And at least one of the grand finalists has come from the NAB semi final participants the last 4 seasons.

Write off pre season form at your peril in my opinion. In fact, you should be betting on those teams with momentum as the market has probably under-rated the significance of these matches.

Very good points raised although there are a lot of teams that use the NAB Cup for different reasons and there will be clubs that will surprise with poor NAB form. I see where you are coming from though, boosting confidence with Essendon's NAB performance.

The one thing that concerns me about the Bombers though (and I do like them as a team) is that they made a concerted effort to perform well in the NAB Cup, they needed to, wanted to build the Hird momentum and get membership numbers up. Have they gone too hard, too early? Whereas Collingwood looked like they were going half pace and won the whole thing!

You do get more information from a punting perspective than just the results in NAB form though, I agree with that.

But I dont want to bombard a punting board. My main point is that I think there is money to be made on the Lions and the media and sheep followers should be thanked for that.