AFL round 1

[asanque]

Results were:
2008: Carlton 79-109 Richmond
2009: Carlton 150-67 Richmond
2010: Carlton 120-64 Richmond

all games clearly going over the 180 mark. Weather is predicted to rain tonight 40-50% precipitation.( i expect it to be heavy conditions and dew on the ground) Id be wary of touching overs in this match.

Unders in 180.5 shouldbe the best play for this match.

Good research, but I would have thought the result would be 'no bet'?

All previous games have gone overs, but there is rain tonight.
Sort of evens itself out?

Both teams have pretty bad defences.

 

[jimmyclean]

How is the weather looking down in Melbourne guys?

Raining heavily right now.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.loop.shtml#skip

 

[Dr Awkward]

I would think the wet weather would suit Carlton more than it would Richmond.

Wet weather only separates the good players from the average ones and Carlton players are a lot more skilful than the Tigers. Plus Carltons forward structure of Betts and Garlett would do much better in the wet than Riewoldt as they rely less on one grab marking.

I generally agree with your statement in bold, but trust me Richmond plays a lot better in the wet. Many of their best wins in the past 5 years have been in the wet, the team seems to thrive on a scrappy game. Riewoldt actually plays well in wet conditions as well. However not picking Tuck is an even bigger mistake given the conditions.

Anway regardless I think Carlton are near certainties. Just too good.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Good research, but I would have thought the result would be 'no bet'?

All previous games have gone overs, but there is rain tonight.
Sort of evens itself out?

Both teams have pretty bad defences.

Just had a glance at carlton's season last year, they averaged 101.7 pts a game. Richmond a lowly 77.9 pts per game in attack.

While both defences are weak, I feel wet weather footy favours lower scoring and defences should win out. Richmond unders also looks a reasonable bet there as well, Jack Riewoldt did about 1/3rd of the scoring for Richmond last season. (Restrict him and more than likely Richmond will find scoring harder to deal with)

 

[GoodesStuff]

Just had a glance at carlton's season last year, they averaged 101.7 pts a game. Richmond a lowly 77.9 pts per game in attack.

Subi where did you find these stats from???

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Subi where did you find these stats from???

www.allthestats.com

you can search for everything there, player stats, team stats, points scored, points conceded etc

 

[jefffff34]

Pissing down here right now...anyway my first of however many games there now are in a season for most goals...

Carlton vs Richmond Leading Goalkicker
Favourite selection - Jack Riewoldt $3.25 at Sportsbet
Value selection - Jeff Garlett $9.00 at Sportsbet

1 unit on each of the above

Other value selections that I can see are...

Eddie Betts $8.50 at Sportingbet
Marc Murphy $67 at Centrebet
Kade Simpson $41 at Sportingbet

Stay tuned for first goalscorer tips.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Good luck everyone!

1st round is always the hardest

 

[Lensen]

0.5 units J.Riewoldt most goals tonight @ $3.25

 

[Sasquatch]

6 units Carlton -19.5 @ $1.91

.5 units Waite first goalscorer @ $11
.5 units Foley more possessions than Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Carazzo, Murphy, Gibbs, Judd
.5 units Newman more possessions than Edwards, Jackson, Connors, Russell, Walker, Simpson, Scotland @ $11

 

[RoosterLad]

Looks like Sportsbet have the 2.00 lines for Round 1 of the AFL like they did for the NRL (I think).

Taking advantage of that.

Carlton -19.5
2 units @ 2.00

 

[the egg]

A lot of love for Carlton on here. Yes they have had to wood over the Tigers in the last few years but I think tonight my be closer than some think.

Foley, Cotchin, Martin, Grigg, Connors, Nahas and Houli will all want to prove a point after having lackluster 2010 seasons where they were injured, didn't get opportunities, suspended or didn't taste much success.

Connors will provide much needed creativity coming off that half back line where they broke down so often last year and also takes some weight off Deledio's shoulders.

Add to this I think it's wet in Melbourne at the moment so it could be low scoring...

1 unit Tigers 1-39
1 unit Tigers + 20.5

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Foley, Cotchin, Martin, Grigg, Connors, Nahas and Houli will all want to prove a point after having lackluster 2010 seasons where they were injured, didn't get opportunities, suspended or didn't taste much success.

Doesnt matter if you want to prove a point or not. Average players are average players.

 

[the egg]

Doesnt matter if you want to prove a point or not. Average players are average players.

You're entitled to an opinion...but these players can definately improve on past performances.

Also having a crack at this multi.

Pies/Pies , Brisbane +24.5, Sydney +24.5

5U at odds of $2.44

 

[N1k0s287]

AFL

4 x Carlton -19.5 @ 1.90 WIN

1 x Under 179.5 TOTAL @ 1.90 LOSS

1ST GOALSCORER

0.5 x Jarrad Waite @ $12 LOSS

0.5 x Eddie Betts @ $9 LOSS

0.5 x Jack Riewoldt @ $9 LOSS

0.5 x Chris Yarran @ $21 LOSS

Carlton should get it done, Nick Duigan is a gun aswell can't wait to see him in action!

Bit of a wild bet with the under, has been pooring here all day so hopefully the G' is heavy with rain and alot of contested ball.

Good luck everyone for the season!!!!

YTD + 1.60

 

[The_Doctor]

150 points or less at $3.50 seems like a good bet to me

 

[Thursfieldness]

Always a bit put off when someone does such an extensive write up and has all their bets before the teams have been announced.

Fair enough, but you'll see I've gone for outsiders other than Carlton tonight (having seen the teams). Almost no manner of inclusions/exclusions could change who I'd be betting on.

This is round 1, who knows how teams will play and whether certain players playing will influence the result.

 

[jefffff34]

Carlton vs Richmond 1st Goalscorer tips
Jarrad Waite $12 @ Centrebet
Eddie Betts $12 @ Centrebet
Jeff Garlett $14 @ Sportsbet
Marc Murphy $26 @ Centrebet
Chris Yarran $31 @ Centrebet
Mitch Robinson $34 @ Sportingbet
Alex Rance $81 @ Centrebet
Bret Thornton $101 @ Centrebet


Some tenuous bets there, although I'm only outlaying very small stakes (2.5 times smaller than my NRL bets), but it's a system and I've gotta follow it.


Note - I went to put a bet on Riewoldt at $9, clicked submit and the odds changed to $8, which meant that he was unders. Very, very annoying.

Go Carlton first goal.

Additionally...Shaun Hampson kicked 6 goals last year, best I could find was $17...Tyrone Vickery 3 goals (4 for career I believe), and $26. That sort of shit from bookmakers just confirms that people really should be studying form, rather than accepting that.

 

[TurboBreuster]

just put 2.5U on <86.5 2nd qtr with sportsbet. 2nd Qtr total <86.5 @1.88 X2.5U. Plus my proper bets:

CARL 1-39 @2.2 X0.9U

1st goal J Garlett @14 X0.15U
1st goal M Morton @20 X0.1U

 

[happy_punter]

Im taking the OVER 176.5 at sportsbet, seems like most of you would disagree. The rain stopped didn't it?

 

[jefffff34]

Connors and Lucas are the subs. Happy they aren't in my bets.

 

[rhinowce]

Carlton vs Richmond 1st Goalscorer tips
Jarrad Waite $12 @ Centrebet
Eddie Betts $12 @ Centrebet
Jeff Garlett $14 @ Sportsbet
Marc Murphy $26 @ Centrebet
Chris Yarran $31 @ Centrebet
Mitch Robinson $34 @ Sportingbet
Alex Rance $81 @ Centrebet
Bret Thornton $101 @ Centrebet

Just a quick question how the hell does your system pick alex rance for first goal.

 

[rhinowce]

Just a few small bets tonite nothing special..

Mitch Morton most goals @ $11.00

ExWinM Carlton 31-32 points @ $26.00

Most Disposals Dustin Martin @ $15.00

good luck everyone.

 

[winga26]

Hey,

I'm new to multi betting and would like to know how this below works?

Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Carlton vs Richmond - Carlton Straight @1.33 Win/Place


Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - Collingwood Straight @1.06 Win/Place


Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Adelaide vs Hawthorn - Hawthorn Straight @1.80 Win/Place

Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Melbourne vs Sydney - Sydney Margin (<39.5) @2.80

As a Yankee Mulitbet with Sportingbet.

Approx Payout (per $1.00): 7.11
Combinations : 11

So I put $2 down which translates to $2 per each of the 11 combination bringing the total to $22 betted.


What happens if 1 or 2 are wrong is that my money gone?


I Appreciate any help guys cheers and hopefully things go well I'm might be taking a punt on a weekly basis.

I tried to place this bet but this comes up.

Stake is greater than the maximum allowed. (Max $0.00)

What's that mean?

 

[puntnut]

Robin Nahas $51 @ Sportsbet

worth a shot i reckon.