AFL Round 13

[GoCROWS!]

Hello fellow punters, what are your thoughts this week. In H2H we have (odds from Centrebet):

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide - 1.49 v 2.60
Hard to build a case for Adelaide or Western Bulldogs really, one would think the dogs would win comfortably. Probably stay away from it unless can get good odds on the dogs.

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast (Tas) 1.02 v 13.00
Hawthorn should win this pretty easily, probably wait to see where the line is.

Essendon vs North Melbourne 1.85 v 1.95
Interesting match north have been in reasonable form of late, essendon not so much.I think Essendon will win but not sure, odds should be around the 1.9 mark may be interested, will see what your thoughts are

St Kilda vs Geelong 3.9 v 1.26
You would think Geelong would win this one, I guess you could contemplate a bit of an outside chance for the Saints at around the 4$ mark, think I will stick away from this one I feel Geelong are due to lose a game (stupid saying I know).

Brisbane vs Richmond 2.1 v 1.72
Richmond will go in as favourites but their form has been all over the place recently, and Brisbane are hard to put money on at the moment also. Might be interested at Richmond around the 1.8$ dollar mark, probably keep away from it.

Melbourne vs Fremantle 1.95 v 1.85
I don't think anyone would be keen to tip Melbourne after the last few weeks, nor Fremantle in Melbourne. That said I think Fremantle will go in favourites maybe some value if I can get them at the 1.8$ or thereabouts.

Carlton vs Sydney 1.27 v 3.80
Sydney are due for a loss, Carlton are flying high and should win. Doubt there will be good odds on Carlton, I guess if the price is right I could be tempted to back Sydney.

West Coast vs Port 1.07 v 8.50
Another wait for the lines, west coast clear favourites. Don't think I could tip port at the moment.

 

[The Sultan]

pending what the line is think the saints will go close, all of their games agst cats have been close...

 

[jefffff34]

Melbourne vs Fremantle odds don't like right.

Sydney would be massive overs at those odds.

 

[GoCROWS!]

Melbourne vs Fremantle odds don't like right.

Sydney would be massive overs at those odds.

Sorry type fixed it

 

[KardiniaPark]

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide - 1.49 v 2.60
Will not be watching nor betting. (ok I will watch and I will have a bet but i wont be happy about it) Terrible game, both completely out of form/shit. At this stage Adelaide with a start.

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast (Tas) 1.02 v 13.00
If the line is around 60 I wouldnt mind GC. Tassie isnt the highest scoring ground and the hawks may just have a letdown after the cats game last week and losing another KPP last week their heads might be down a bit.

Essendon vs North Melbourne 1.85 v 1.95
Not keen but I would think Essendon would win comfortably.

St Kilda vs Geelong 3.9 v 1.26
Cats too strong. 30+

Brisbane vs Richmond 2.1 v 1.72
Its hard to know where Richmond are right now. I certainly dont want to be backing them interstate as favourites. No thanks!

Melbourne vs Fremantle 1.95 v 1.65
Freo huge odds unless someone upsets Melbourne during the week and they decide to have some pride in the jumper...Freo comfortably.

Carlton vs Sydney 1.27 v 3.80
Blues should win but the line should be interesting, I cant see them winning by more then 20 odd. Possibly the swans at the line if its decent.

West Coast vs Port 1.07 v 8.50
Eagles could win this by 400. Will comfortably be the highest scoring team of the week.

 

[The Sultan]

Brisbane @ 2.1 look good, third road trip in a row for the tigs, throw in a 10 hour bus trip returning home from sydney.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide - 1.49 v 2.60
Will not be watching nor betting. (ok I will watch and I will have a bet but i wont be happy about it.

LOL

Meh week for mine.

I really think Sydney are good value though.

Essendon good odds too IMO.

 

[laam]

The bet everyone is waiting for is up, hawks more goals than behinds, although only paying 1.45

 

[Borgsta]

5u hawks g > b / carlton / west coast @ $1.97

 

[Hawkinspired]

Good call about West Coast high score. Won't be the front runner because of Hawthorn. Haven't been high scoring lately but they have the capacity to score big scores like they did against the dogs. Could be good odds or around 6-8 bucks?

 

[Frozenwaste]

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast (Tas) 1.02 v 13.00
If the line is around 60 I wouldnt mind GC. Tassie isnt the highest scoring ground and the hawks may just have a letdown after the cats game last week and losing another KPP last week their heads might be down a bit.

At TheTote, the line has been set at 74.5.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Good call about West Coast high score. Won't be the front runner because of Hawthorn. Haven't been high scoring lately but they have the capacity to score big scores like they did against the dogs. Could be good odds or around 6-8 bucks?

Nah no chance of that, closer to $4 would be about right If its anymore than that then Giggity Giggity.

 

[DTShowtime]

Sydney & St. Kilda the value of the week.

 

[True North]

Gold Coast +74.5 at a ground where the winning score struggles to hit 74.

North @ $2.27 on Centrebet is value, if Fletcher misses North should start favourites. Equal fav's if Fletcher lines up.

 

[5 Bucks]

Is that the highest the line has ever been set at?

 

[The Sultan]

if you are going to back the saints, get on b4 selwood case is heard as is Geelong will drift out after he is give 3-4 weeks

 

[5 Bucks]

They aren't contesting to get him off, they are just trying to reduce the penalty. He is out, no matter what.

 

[JuDDysthacaptain]

Great odds for Sydney imo, smashed us last year at etihad before we played the elimination final at ANZ. Defs worth having a look at the line.

May have a crack at Melbourne under 39 when odds come out

 

[KardiniaPark]

Gold Coast +74.5 at a ground where the winning score struggles to hit 74.

North @ $2.27 on Centrebet is value, if Fletcher misses North should start favourites. Equal fav's if Fletcher lines up.

WOW that is a line and a half.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

I don't like this round for betting.

NORTH MELBOURNE (Handicap +8.5)
GOLD COAST (Handicap +74.5)
RICHMOND/RICHMOND
SANTOS FC - DRAW NO BET

1 unit @ 16.33

 

[stuziman]

Swans are the best play of the week. Jack makes a difference and if big mummy gets up then they will dominate rucks. Remember jack on Judd before he had an ankle problem? Was going very well.

 

[DT_35]

St.Kilda & Sydney are value for me.

Sydney get Mumford back? I think. Jack will play a full game. Carlton have won only 1 out of the past 10 or so vs Sydney, both teams are going along nicely, certainly wouldn't back Carlton @ $1.28. Sydney are value @ $3.65.

St.Kilda is play there best Footy against the Cats, it'll be low scoring no doubt. With Selwood out I expect it to even out a bit. We match up well against them and the past 3 or 4 matches has been a toss of the coin. All depends on whether Montagna gets up or not IMO, and St.Kilda have to make Scarlett accountable to have any chance. Take the $3.65 for the Saints.

 

[Resarenco]

Why is everyone jumping on the Sydney and St Kilda band wagons ?

 

[Sunny_]

Suns just jumped up again. Insane. Hawks have 8 or 9 of their 22 out. I'd tip the Hawks easy, but am tempted to throw some cash at the Gold Coast just in case. Outside chance. At this rate, anyway.

 

[james brayshaw]

will be all over the roos and dockers line