Afl Round 16

[The Big Woofer]

Just hears Ablett is out.... Is that true?

No confirmation yet but looks likely.

 

[GFC29]

Sportsbet have just suspended betting for Most Disposals.

Probably just covering their bases though.

 

[publicenemyk2]

Forget about 8 leg multis at the line

surely hawthron for lowest score of round @ $34 in hobart, no buddy is worth a look...

 

[arkie]

You wont be able to multi coll lowest score into collingwood/st.kilda under 150...

Yeah I ended up doing the Collingwood as the lowest scoring team of the round as a separate bet. Why can't it be in the multi with the Collingwood/Saints under 150?

 

[Lensen]

Yeah I ended up doing the Collingwood as the lowest scoring team of the round as a separate bet. Why can't it be in the multi with the Collingwood/Saints under 150?

Because the under 150 becomes more certain if the Pies are the lowest scoring side of the round.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Officially; no late changes.

I'm on Geelong HT/FT @ $1.53, as well as -2.5 points and straight out. Go Cats!

 

[Asahi]

Only 2 bets for this weekend!
Cats under 39.5 @ $2.25- bet $1500
Cats 20-39 @ 4.70 - bet $500

Good luck to everyone!

 

[DT ELITE]

Geelong (-15.5) / Hawthorn v Brisbane either side under 39.5
1 Unit @ $2.40

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Adel/Geel: Ablett $2.50 (Most Disposals Group B), Vince $7 (Most Disposals Group A) & Tippett $6 (Top Goal Scorer)
Coll/StK: Swan $3.50, Fisher $7.50 & Riewoldt $5
Haw/BL: Hodge $4.25, Bateman $9 & Fevola $6
Ess/WCE: Watson $3.25, Masten $7 & Neagle $8
WB/Port: Boyd $2.50, Hargrave $8 & Higgins $13

All prices are TAB. Good luck for the weekend!

Adel/Geel: Ablett $2.50 (Most Disposals Group B), Vince $7 (Most Disposals Group A) & Tippett $6 (Top Goal Scorer)
Coll/StK: Swan $3.50, Fisher $7.50 & Riewoldt $5
Haw/BL: Hodge $4.25, Bateman $9 & Fevola $6
Ess/WCE: Watson $3.25, Masten $7 & Neagle $8
WB/Port: Boyd $2.50, Hargrave $8 & Higgins $13
Carl/Syd: Judd $4, Carrazzo $4.50 & Betts $4.50
Rich/NMFC: Harvey $7, Cotchin $6 & Riewoldt $1.75
Fre/Melb: Mundy $5, Davey $6 & Pavlich $3.50

Updated.

 

[Cuzz09]

I did some little bets on:

Simon Goodwin (most possies)
Travis Varcoe (first goal)
either team under 15.5




Keep it interesting

 

[Lensen]

Adel/Geel: Ablett $2.50 (Most Disposals Group B), Vince $7 (Most Disposals Group A) & Tippett $6 (Top Goal Scorer)
Coll/StK: Swan $3.50, Fisher $7.50 & Riewoldt $5
Haw/BL: Hodge $4.25, Bateman $9 & Fevola $6
Ess/WCE: Watson $3.25, Masten $7 & Neagle $8
WB/Port: Boyd $2.50, Hargrave $8 & Higgins $13
Carl/Syd: Judd $4, Carrazzo $4.50 & Betts $4.50
Rich/NMFC: Harvey $7, Cotchin $6 & Riewoldt $1.75
Fre/Melb: Mundy $5, Davey $6 & Pavlich $3.50

Updated.

Most Disposals Week 1 Test - have gone $2 on each

Johncock $17, Goodwin $11
Ball $11, Pendlebury $11
Masten $7, Priddis $6.50
Bateman $9, no bet
Hargrave $8, Pearce $21
Kennelly $7.50, McVeigh $13
Scully $4.50, Mundy $5
Wells $6, Harvey $7

 

[Asahi]

Geelong (-15.5) / Hawthorn v Brisbane either side under 39.5
1 Unit @ $2.40

Hey DT ELITE what agency lets you pick both teams under 39.5?

 

[Lensen]

Most Disposals Week 1 Test - have gone $2 on each

Johncock $17, Goodwin $11
Ball $11, Pendlebury $11
Masten $7, Priddis $6.50
Bateman $9, no bet
Hargrave $8, Pearce $21
Kennelly $7.50, McVeigh $13
Scully $4.50, Mundy $5
Wells $6, Harvey $7

Most Goals:
$2 on Jolly @ $36
$10 on J.Brown @ $6
$10 on Hurley @ $26 (overs if he plays forward)
$10 on Schulz @ $10

 

[Lensen]

Hey DT ELITE what agency lets you pick both teams under 39.5?

Sportingbet do it

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Most Disposals Week 1 Test - have gone $2 on each

Johncock $17, Goodwin $11
Ball $11, Pendlebury $11
Masten $7, Priddis $6.50
Bateman $9, no bet
Hargrave $8, Pearce $21
Kennelly $7.50, McVeigh $13
Scully $4.50, Mundy $5
Wells $6, Harvey $7

We have a few that cross over which is a good sign hopefully haha. Are you looking for value in the premium group? I like McVeigh at $13, he burnt me last week so I didn't give him much thought unfortunately. Johncock tonight is also juicy odds, I am just hoping that Ling goes to Thompson rather than Vince.. Good luck!

 

[Lensen]

We have a few that cross over which is a good sign hopefully haha. Are you looking for value in the premium group? I like McVeigh at $13, he burnt me last week so I didn't give him much thought unfortunately. Johncock tonight is also juicy odds, I am just hoping that Ling goes to Thompson rather than Vince.. Good luck!

Mine's entirely - and possibly to my detriment - stats based. Exactly the same as my Most Goals except obviously the point values I assign to x amount goals I now assign to y number of disposals.

The issue is whether I've got the estimates to what works together right - we'll see.

By my count if our crossovers both get up we'll be up 20 units each so let's hope

EDIT: Also should have mentioned that the stats are used to frame a market - after which I back whoever's the most % "overs". So I'm not necessarily (actually - at all I don't think) picking my #1 selection. Hoping to win overall via value rather than trying to pick a winner each time.

 

[asanque]

Adel/Geel: Ablett $2.50 (Most Disposals Group B), Vince $7 (Most Disposals Group A) & Tippett $6 (Top Goal Scorer)
Coll/StK: Swan $3.50, Fisher $7.50 & Riewoldt $5
Haw/BL: Hodge $4.25, Bateman $9 & Fevola $6
Ess/WCE: Watson $3.25, Masten $7 & Neagle $8
WB/Port: Boyd $2.50, Hargrave $8 & Higgins $13
Carl/Syd: Judd $4, Carrazzo $4.50 & Betts $4.50
Rich/NMFC: Harvey $7, Cotchin $6 & Riewoldt $1.75
Fre/Melb: Mundy $5, Davey $6 & Pavlich $3.50

Updated.

I'm on Vince too with a hedge on Corey and Enright.

Haven't had much time to study the form, but can't see much competition to those 3.

Reilly has done a good job tagging recently and I will leave the other market alone, although I also think Ablett will win.

Only small bets for the ones above.

Good luck

 

[Barnzy]

Selwood 5 touches already. Should've got on him at $5 for most disposals. Was pretty good value.

I got on Geelong over 24.5 points at $2. Pretty confident.

 

[bigbunyip14]

I did some little bets on:

Simon Goodwin (most possies)
Travis Varcoe (first goal)
either team under 15.5




Keep it interesting

how much did you have on varcoe? i put $5 when i read yours. lol

 

[Squall]

1 bet this weekend

Hawthorn win
Freo win
St Kilda under 39.5
Essendon under 39.5

multi @ $8.65

 

[Gift]

When Geelong handle the ball its like its coated in butter whereas Adelaide are handling the ball fine

 

[windyhill]

Due a bad one geelong, crows travelling well.

Come on Crowies, hold on boys.

 

[tarky]

bloody hell geelong...

 

[dUkezz]

Fml lol got on the cats at half time lol I cursed them

 

[dUkezz]

New I shouldve taken the +18.5 they were offering on Adelaide at half time but hopefully the cattery can kick 4 in the last 11 mins lol

edit stokes goals 15pts
edit 2 gaz goals hmmm