AFL Round 21

[mattys123]

Rutten a late out for the Crows, Pods most goals @ 4.00 looks good now.

 

[NDFCHFC2]

Mooney @ 7.50 MG 1/6 unit
game over 186.5 @1.88 1 unit
Sellwood MP Group @ 3.50 1/3 unit

Multi with S. Johnson MG @3.75

 

[5 Bucks]

Richmond are so annoying. I took them 1-39, as i don't rate the Swans. But surely Richmond aren't good enough to win by 40+. Absurd.

 

[baywatch5]

2ND H - CATS -26.5 (x3)

 

[Demon3]

Anyone know who was on the first list of most disposals group a on sportsbet for melb v wc

 

[twarby]

Anyone know who was on the first list of most disposals group a on sportsbet for melb v wc

there is only one group

Nathan Jones won it, you'd know this if you looked at the results page they have

 

[Demon3]

there is only one group

Nathan Jones won it, you'd know this if you looked at the results page they have

On what site is this, i was asking for tab.com.au bets.

 

[EssendonPride]

Still going alright
adding

3u christensen over stokes @ 2.2
this is an insane price, christensen leads 4-1 in the last 5 games. market seems to be based on all christensens games as sub earlier in the year. if he does start as sub, then this is refunded, so no risk there.
also
1u selwood over thompson @ 1.78

tailed you on Christensen... Bad luck.
Went the same as my Naitanui vs Watts bet... Big leads early, then barely go near it in the last (Don't recall seeing either in the last 10-15 minutes of the games)

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Yeah I tailed on Christensen too; screwed with 25:06 gone in the last quarter. I hate that shit.

 

[Resarenco]

That's just not true. You can make a profit taking shorter than evens if your strike rate is as poor as around 57%, depending on the juice. If you factor in odds up to $3.00, you really don't need to get that many correct bets to make a profit.

Firstly thanks for your constructive critical response. That is a good thing it is absolutely fine to disagree and you did it in the right manner. Your probably right in terms of the majority of punters but as you know I only make one bet per week so I never take odds below $1.30. People that make a lot of bets this would probably work for them. I pride myself on almost never losing a bet, I have only made 20 bets this year and got 18 right.

I don't even know where to start with this. So if there was a team that you were confident of winning in a given round, despite their being at odds of say, $2.80, you'd be only equally confident that Geelong would beat Gold Coast without Ablett at Skilled stadium at $1.01? I call BS.

When i look at bets I look at the ONE bet in that round that I can give myself a score of 10/10 as being a good bet. There is rarely ever two bets in the same week that I would consider being 10/10. The lowest I go is $1.30 so I wouldn't be looking at bets I can make below this otherwise there would be too many bets to evaluate to choose just one (the aim is to single out one) for the week. If there is a bet that is $1.50 and another that is $2.50 for example that I consider 10/10 I will make both bets and will have equal confidence in both.

You should bet more on Hawthorn in the first instance, as according to your assessment of the match the odds on offer give you a much higher expected value on the bet.

I think you misunderstood the bit you made bold. I wasn't wondering which I should choose between Sydney and Hawthorn and Collingwood and Hawthorn. I was trying to explain myself, perhaps it was badly worded. If those games were in the same round I would bet on both but would value them equally despite the difference in odds. I think you will understand from what I wrote above just now.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Never taking odds below $1.30 is probably a pretty good practice... I'd probably have been better off in the long run if I'd done that.

 

[Unrivaled Mach]

tailed you on Christensen... Bad luck.
Went the same as my Naitanui vs Watts bet... Big leads early, then barely go near it in the last (Don't recall seeing either in the last 10-15 minutes of the games)

Went with Christensen also, a healthy 20 point lead slowly evaporated is pretty annoying

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Did anyone have a good week?

 

[twarby]

Did anyone have a good week?

Staker paying 71/1 for FG makes any weekend a good weekend

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Staker paying 71/1 for FG makes any weekend a good weekend

Hot diggity!
I hate Sydney. I'm a mug. I belong in a cupboard.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

staker paying 71/1 on any book other than bet365 for fg makes any weekend a good weekend

fyp.

 

[twarby]

centrebet paid out quite promptly

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Of course they did; Centrebet are friggin' brilliant compared to most books IMHO.

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Is there much money to be made in FGS or should I leave it until I'm no longer a ceramic object?

 

[twarby]

i rarely do it, only when someone starting forward is 40+

or for the tip rat

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Depends on how much thought/research you put into it. Lenny has done particularly well. Generally though it's worth throwing a few bob on a new recruit playing up forward. From Collingwood for example Fasolo and Keeffe have been at around $100 for FGS and both kicked goals, just not the first. Fasolo slotted one in the first quarter too.

 

[Borgsta]

The two bets I lost this year where

Collingwood to beat Geelong and carlton HT / FT double against port adelaide.

Good Lord man you realise your bets are actually posted on this site. you are not 18/20

 

[Lensen]

nah i'm not much chop at the first goal stuff, its most goals i've done well with

 

[laam]

Still going alright
1u thomas over montagna @ 1.8
1u west coast more points than collingwood @ 1.88
0.5u dogs more than collingwood @ 2.6
0.5u dons more than collingwood @ 2.25
2u lewis over cornes @ 1.9
1u gia over zaharakis @ 1.9
4u barlow > 24.5 possesions @ 1.75
2u jacobs over ottens in DT @ 1.87
1u mcevoy over jolly in DT @ 1.85
0.5u fisher top DT back @8.5
1u freo win @ 3.11
1u GC win @ 3.27
3u christensen over stokes @ 2.2
1u selwood over thompson @ 1.78

Christensen looked home at half time.
Poor finish to a good weekend, although only good because of Staker. Lurking FTW, lol

 

[TurboBreuster]

A bad weekend for me with all of my totals were way off and I was fooled by Sydney amongst others. For me good FGS bets are about identifying those like Jack Darling before the bookies fully catch on or getting on guys that are priced at mid or def odds that start forward. I also can't see the harm in betting on guys like JPOD or Milne every week if the odds are 10>.