AFL Round 21

[The Royal Sampler]

2 units - Barlow > Broughton disposals @ $1.80

+ 1.6 units. Again, it all helps.

 

[Borgsta]

you said i was a mug shortly after i posted my bet...

So why am i a mug then? Please give a serious logical answer.

I have made two bets in the last two weeks. Both winning bets, one at $1.55 and the other at $2.00

He already has given you a logical answer, your inability to comprehend it is another issue.

 

[laam]

1u thomas over montagna @ 1.8
1u west coast more points than collingwood @ 1.88
0.5u dogs more than collingwood @ 2.6
0.5u dons more than collingwood @ 2.25
2u lewis over cornes @ 1.9
1u gia over zaharakis @ 1.9
4u barlow > 24.5 possesions @ 1.75
2u jacobs over ottens in DT @ 1.87
ottens just back from injury, jacobs in rare form

1u mcevoy over jolly in DT @ 1.85
0.5u fisher top DT back @8.5
1u freo win @ 3.11
1u GC win @ 3.27

Still going alright
adding

3u christensen over stokes @ 2.2
this is an insane price, christensen leads 4-1 in the last 5 games. market seems to be based on all christensens games as sub earlier in the year. if he does start as sub, then this is refunded, so no risk there.
also
1u selwood over thompson @ 1.78

 

[twarby]

nice spot
112 for Christo in the last match vs Adelaide

tailing

 

[Nothing]

Is that at CB?

 

[Resarenco]

He already has given you a logical answer, your inability to comprehend it is another issue.

What are you talking about that long discussion regarding putting $7,000 on Collingwood at $1.35 rather then $1.42 ?

That was a winning bet earning $2,450.

This logical answer is imaginary you just wanted to make a smartarse comment.

How could a mug punter be up $14,000 for the year. I think you need to look up the definition. Your bets are much more erratic then mine. I have only lost two bets this year.

 

[Damarus]

What are you talking about that long discussion regarding putting $7,000 on Collingwood at $1.35 rather then $1.42 ?

That was a winning bet earning $2,450.

This logical answer is imaginary you just wanted to make a smartarse comment.

How could a mug punter be up $14,000 for the year. I think you need to look up the definition. Your bets are much more erratic then mine. I have only lost two bets this year.

Jesus just stop digging yourself deeper into your mug hole. That's not even what he's talking about... Not even going to bother helping you further than that, it's obvious you're not going to understand.

 

[Resarenco]

Jesus just stop digging yourself deeper into your mug hole. That's not even what he's talking about... Not even going to bother helping you further than that, it's obvious you're not going to understand.

If I understand you correctly your saying that they are calling me a mug not based on how good I am at betting but because they don't agree with some of the things I have said on the board. They are saying mug as opposed to any other word because that is seen to be the most offensive thing you can call someone on a punting board.

I mean he is calling me a mug but Borgsta is the same guy that when i asked politely in the round 18 thread why everyone was so sure that bulldogs and sydney would be low scoring he acted like I was stupid. Guess what it was not low scoring and I was right and he was wrong, in fact I was one of the only people right about it going over. It is strange that he is calling other people mugs and acting like he is so much better then others at betting (because why else would he call people mugs if he doesn't think so) when that is clearly not the case.

Twarby thinks he is the best thing since sliced bread so I am not surprised that he loves calling people mugs but I would have thought Borgsta would be rational in who he decided to call a mug based on betting ability.

 

[Borgsta]

I told you to do some research and then you apologised because it was obvious why people thought it would be low scoring. That reasoning was near torrential rain.

And FWIW I have never called you a mug.

 

[Nothing]

And FWIW I have never called you a mug.

... Even though you are quite clearly a mug

 

[The Royal Sampler]

How could a mug punter be up $14,000 for the year.

$200k @ $1.07?

Seriously, if you don't understand variance then you don't understand the very mechanism that also allows successful punters to win in the long term. If mugs couldn't win in the short term, there would be no punting, you would only have the option of losing juice to the books or abstaining.

 

[baywatch5]

2-1 +6.3u today
Small play on G.Ablett tonight also LOSS

ADDING:
4TH Q - SUNS +6.5 (x1) LOSS
Total game line +44.5

0-2 -2.3u to finish last night
Still a positive day adding +4u

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Most Goals

Lynch & Darling @ $13's

 

[baywatch5]

AFL SUNDAY

1ST H - SWANS -10.5 (x2)
ATS - EAGLES -27.5 (x3)

PLAYER EXOTICS - GEELONG @ ADELAIDE
J.BARTEL TOTAL DISPOSALS - 24 or more (x1)
TOTAL GOALS H2H - STOKES over VARCOE (x1)

 

[carpsi]

here it comes kids, hold on to your hats.......

$500 on Essendon to score more points then Gold Coast @ 1.55

Hold on to your hats??? Why? You give your tip like you are some kind of tout and like you expect everyone to be sitting at their computer smashing the F5 button to see when this tip of the week will be provided from you.
Yeah you got it correct and well done for that but its not like people are here losing sleep over what you bet of the week will be.

I also feel you need to start giving respect to guys that deserve it.There are guys on this forum that give valuable information and share their views to help people. I know who these people are and I give respect to these people. I have learnt a lot from information they have shared. If you bother to read the thread you will identify who these people are.
Respect is earned... not awarded. This is why you dont get respected on here. Start giving a little bit of respect and you might start receiving some back.
Back up your bets. Give reasons why you think your bet will get up. Laam picked Thomas > Montagna DT points on a gut feel. May as well flip a coin If you place a bet going on gut feel. Twarby then explains and gives reasons why its a good bet.

Shape up or Ship out mug

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Resarenco, the thing that cracks me up about this whole situation is that you initially questioned why people use units rather than stating the dollar amount they bet.

You then proceed to note 4.5k on one bet, $500 on another, and state that all your bets are of equal confidence. So how the hell do you decide how much a bet is worth? It makes no sense, and that is why people are calling you a mug. You've either got too much money, not enough sense, or a little bit of both, because betting like that is a long term losing proposition.

 

[rhinowce]

Hold on to your hats??? Why? You give your tip like you are some kind of tout and like you expect everyone to be sitting at their computer smashing the F5 button to see when this tip of the week will be provided from you.
Yeah you got it correct and well done for that but its not like people are here losing sleep over what you bet of the week will be.

I also feel you need to start giving respect to guys that deserve it.There are guys on this forum that give valuable information and share their views to help people. I know who these people are and I give respect to these people. I have learnt a lot from information they have shared. If you bother to read the thread you will identify who these people are.
Respect is earned... not awarded. This is why you dont get respected on here. Start giving a little bit of respect and you might start receiving some back.
Back up your bets. Give reasons why you think your bet will get up. Laam picked Thomas > Montagna DT points on a gut feel. May as well flip a coin If you place a bet going on gut feel. Twarby then explains and gives reasons why its a good bet.

Shape up or Ship out mug

Do you feel better now??

I dont understand this board sometimes, why is everyone so serious when it comes too the punt?? anyone would think its an exact science the way some people shot each other down for what they call a "mug" bet.

if Resarenco wants to post his outlandish bets well then good for him its not something too get your nickers in a knot over..

 

[TurboBreuster]

I'm down for the weekend thanks mostly to losing on totals. Today I'm only going to do one total:

5U WCE ML/SYD ML/GEE-GEE 1H-2H @1.81 (B365)
3U WCE -28.5 @2.01 (Pinnacle)
2.5U GEE/ADEL >181.5 (B365)
1.8U SYD 1-39 (Sportsbet)
1U GEE 1H -36.5 @2.75 (Sportsbet)

FGS
0.1U Cox @34 (B365)
0.15U Darling @21 (Sportingbet)
0.2U Sylvia @23 (B365)
0.25U Reid @17 (Sportingbet)
0.2U Vickery @17 (B365)
0.05U Martin @29 (B365)
0.3U Jpod @10 (Sportingbet)
0.2U Walker @12 (B365)
0.15U Menzel @41 (Centrebet)

MGS
0.15U Sylvia @41 (Centrebet)
0.2U Darling @14 (Sportsbet)
0.08U Cox @41 (Centrebet)
0.15U Martin @21 (Sportsbet)
0.2U Reid @15 (Centrebet)
0.5U Jpod @4 (Sportingbet)
0.15U Stokes @15 (Sportsbet)

 

[carpsi]

Do you feel better now??

I dont understand this board sometimes, why is everyone so serious when it comes too the punt?? anyone would think its an exact science the way some people shot each other down for what they call a "mug" bet.

if Resarenco wants to post his outlandish bets well then good for him its not something too get your nickers in a knot over..

Ill feel a whole lot better If you leave as well. When did I say he cant place his bets on here? I dont have a problem with him posting his bets. But hold on to your hats is a bit overboard. Geez

 

[rhinowce]

Ill feel a whole lot better If you leave as well. When did I say he cant place his bets on here? I dont have a problem with him posting his bets. But hold on to your hats is a bit overboard. Geez

I think the hold your hat comment was more tongue in cheek than anything and whats the go with your sig??? Bit much dont you think.

but yeah whatever back too punting talk.

 

[denitofinito]

Time too post some tips too you ppl.

too units on syd -19.5 @ 1.92. Completely outplayed the tigers earlier in the year apart from kicking straight and that was when richmond were going better. Swans have kicked into finals mode and will they will be out for blood after losing a game they should have won last week.

Good luck too everyone.

 

[Resarenco]

Resarenco, the thing that cracks me up about this whole situation is that you initially questioned why people use units rather than stating the dollar amount they bet.

You then proceed to note 4.5k on one bet, $500 on another, and state that all your bets are of equal confidence. So how the hell do you decide how much a bet is worth? It makes no sense, and that is why people are calling you a mug. You've either got too much money, not enough sense, or a little bit of both, because betting like that is a long term losing proposition.

Thank you for giving a helpful response. As I have mentioned I only make bets between the odds of $1.30 and $3.00. These bets are therefore all instances where the winner is commonly from this odds spectrum. What I mean is above these odds the probability of a getting a winner is relatively low. Below these odds even if you get a a lot of correct bets you are unlikely to make a long term profit.

To answer your query I have equal confidence in my bets because the amount I bet isn't affected by what the odds are. If I see a team at $2.80 and I think they will win then I think they will win simple as that you know what I mean. For example very early on when I first came to this forum some people may remember that I told everyone that Hawthorn would beat Sydney in Sydney. (most people on here thought I was wrong about that as well by the way). Hawthorn where about $2.80 from memory, I was just as confident about that bet as I was about Collingwood winning against Hawthorn at $1.35. How do I then determine how much I place on any given bet? I can see that you think that if I have equal confidence I should place the same amount of dollars on every bet I make.

I will explain why I don't. This is because unlike almost everyone here I don't make many bets, mostly only one a week. I see many people on here make ten bets a week at odds with very large ranges up to odds of $50. For these people allocating a dollar value to the confidence of there bets is practical because it will allow them to theoretically come out ahead over a long period of time as long as they win the bets they are most confident about. I only bet to make money most people on here seem to bet because they enjoy too, it makes the game more interesting etc and thats why they make a lot of small bets.

It is the start of they year and I want to make some money. I put $1500 on Essendon to beat the Bulldogs in round round 1. They where around $3.65 from memory and they won. If I had lost that bet I wouldn't have bet again the entire AFL season. Fortunately I was right and they won. The reason why my bet amount can fluctuate is because sometimes you have to take a risk in life otherwise you aren't going to get anywhere. I had to decide which game to reinvest my winning on in a large amount otherwise I am not going to make much money by betting say how much I did this week every week only $500. I don't bet a lot every week otherwise you will lose in the long term. Is it more about luck if I happen win my small portion of large bets ? perhaps so but not really because I don't lose many bets. I would consider it unlucky if I lost those bets as I have won about 90% of my bets this year.

The two bets I lost this year where

Collingwood to beat Geelong and carlton HT / FT double against port adelaide.

Of course my statement 'hold on to your hats' was just a joke why would anyone take that seriously.

 

[carpsi]

I think the hold your hat comment was more tongue in cheek than anything and whats the go with your sig??? Bit much dont you think.

but yeah whatever back too punting talk.

My sig was written by another poster. I copied it and put it as my sig

 

[The Royal Sampler]

As I have mentioned I only make bets between the odds of $1.30 and $3.00. These bets are therefore all instances where the winner is commonly from this odds spectrum. What I mean is above these odds the probability of a getting a winner is relatively low. Below these odds even if you get a a lot of correct bets you are unlikely to make a long term profit.

That's just not true. You can make a profit taking shorter than evens if your strike rate is as poor as around 57%, depending on the juice. If you factor in odds up to $3.00, you really don't need to get that many correct bets to make a profit.

To answer your query I have equal confidence in my bets because the amount I bet isn't affected by what the odds are. If I see a team at $2.80 and I think they will win then I think they will win simple as that you know what I mean.

I don't even know where to start with this. So if there was a team that you were confident of winning in a given round, despite their being at odds of say, $2.80, you'd be only equally confident that Geelong would beat Gold Coast without Ablett at Skilled stadium at $1.01? I call BS.

For example very early on when I first came to this forum some people may remember that I told everyone that Hawthorn would beat Sydney in Sydney. (most people on here thought I was wrong about that as well by the way). Hawthorn where about $2.80 from memory, I was just as confident about that bet as I was about Collingwood winning against Hawthorn at $1.35. How do I then determine how much I place on any given bet? I can see that you think that if I have equal confidence I should place the same amount of dollars on every bet I make.

You should bet more on Hawthorn in the first instance, as according to your assessment of the match the odds on offer give you a much higher expected value on the bet.

 

[baywatch5]

ADDING
2ND H - SWANS -11.5 (x3)