AFL Round 4.

[mattys123]

Odds are out for the upcoming round 4 of the AFL season.

WCE 1.55
Essendon 2.45

North Melbourne 2.35
Sydney 1.58

Adelaide 1.80
Carlton 2.00

Brisbane 1.95
Western Bulldogs 1.85

Collingwood 1.65
Hawthorn 2.22

Richmond 3.25
Melbourne 1.33

Geelong 1.15
Port Adelaide 5.35

Stkilda 1.31
Fremantle 3.45


Notables;

* Long time since Melbourne has been 1.33 for a game, deserve to be though, should win.

* 1.15 almost seems like value for Geelong, certs to win back home after a loss.

* StKilda without Riewoldt too short for mine.

* Adelaide v Carlton hard to judge, I would have had it 1.90 each.

Thoughts, early bets?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Odds are out for the upcoming round 4 of the AFL season.

WCE 1.55
Essendon 2.45

North Melbourne 2.35
Sydney 1.58

Adelaide 1.80
Carlton 2.00

Brisbane 1.95
Western Bulldogs 1.85

Collingwood 1.65
Hawthorn 2.22

Richmond 3.25
Melbourne 1.33

Geelong 1.15
Port Adelaide 5.35

Stkilda 1.31
Fremantle 3.45


Notables;

* Long time since Melbourne has been 1.33 for a game, deserve to be though, should win.

* 1.15 almost seems like value for Geelong, certs to win back home after a loss.

* StKilda without Riewoldt too short for mine.

* Adelaide v Carlton hard to judge, I would have had it 1.90 each.

Thoughts, early bets?

* Brisbane great value- I have them at 1.67-1.70 favourites in my market

* I also have Carlton as slight favs

* Melbourne IMO are too short. Carlton didnt even start close to this against the Tigers in Round 1. Richmonds home game as well. Value in taking the Tiges at +18.5 and better.

* The other 5 games almost mirror my market. The swans are a little shorter but that may be my bias coming into it.

* The Collingwood/Hawthorn game was 1.90 each earlier today and in hindsight that screamed value for the pies, as I had them at 1.60....

Anyway, at this stage thinking small bets on the Tiges with the headstart and Carlton H2H. The Lions at home will probably be my best bet of the round.

 

[Schmucta]

* Brisbane great value- I have them at 1.67-1.70 favourites in my market

I think it is the other way around, Brisbane are going to be tough to beat, but take out McGrath, Clark, Black and it;s getting a bit thin on talent.

I reckon the bulldogs will win up there, either way it's very much a 50/50 game in my eyes.

 

[Jammer]

Profit/loss +1545

Thought i might get some odds on The Coasters...buy too short.....if i'm home on Fri night might see if i can get $2.00 in the run on Betfair as i feel the Bombers will leak 4 or 5 goals in a row somewhere during this match.

Hawks odds are starting to look tasty...think the Franklin factor has been over rated,,,host reasons i'm warming to the Hawks, match up well, great recent record,...will consider backing them if they get out to odds around $2.40

 

[Wilso]

The inclusion of Judd may be enough for me to have a flutter on the Blues.

Also really like Sydney at $1.58. Can't see North getting up to be honest. Will probably Multi with Geelong and perhaps Doggies (might just H2H this game).

No Clark and Black for the Lions, I think doggies are terrific value at 1.96 (Betfair)

 

[The Big Woofer]

How Syd are $1.58 & -10.5 is beyond me, should be $1.28 & -25.5

 

[mattys123]

Really good profitable betting option on SportingBet has just been put up.

Basically;

"When will Richmond win a game in 2010".

Some odds;

No wins - 8.00
Round 9 vs essendon - 11.00
Round 12 vs WCE (mcg) - 23.00

Considering Richmond have Melbourne then no real "winnable" games up to the Essendon game, I like the 23.00 for the WCE game.

Tigers draw;

http://www.richmondfc.com.au/season fixture/tabid/15350/default.aspx

 

[cynical]

bulldogs are a great bet

morris and lake on brown and fev

brisbanes weak midfield will get exposed against the bulldogs and they will kick a winning score unlike the blues a few weeks ago

4u on wb @1.95

adelaide should bounce back at home vs the blues, they will be under a lot of pressure to win this one, carlton dont have the pace in the middle to worry the crows too much

1u on Ade @1.93

Sydney vs North Swans have a pretty balanced team, bit too classy for north

1u on syd @1.6

geelong vs port

geelong dont lose at skilled, this is the unveiling of the 2009 flag and harleys send off. Nearly beat freo with a lot of key players out in WA. Port are a pretty weak bodied side lots of kids and will likely lose by 6 goals +

2u on cats @1.17

 

[lions_den]

syd/carl/dogs/coll @9.65

 

[GoodesStuff]

I think it is the other way around, Brisbane are going to be tough to beat, but take out McGrath, Clark, Black and it;s getting a bit thin on talent.

I reckon the bulldogs will win up there, either way it's very much a 50/50 game in my eyes.

I knew a couple were under an injury cloud, and it will be interesting to see who returns from injury this week for the lions. Will have to wait to the teams are announced with this one. Got too excited for a Monday

 

[Dr Awkward]

Now this is the round of betting that I have been waiting for... some real special value imo, these are my early thoughts:

Sydney should definately win against Kangaroos, I think North are a really poor side this year and am keen to back Sydney in some form, probably H2H and then include in a multi.

WB look like value to me, their midfield is just so much better than Brisbane's and I think the Dogs are travelling alright since round 1. Brisbane don't seem to match up that well against them on paper I think Dogs will slice them up in the middle and will get good value from the forwards. Some significant outs for Brisbane also. I like the fact that Dogs have 22 players with experience and Brisbane still have a couple of youngun's who wont match it. Not overly confident though, so only a small/medium sized bet on this game for me.

WC v Ess No opinion, dont like WC forward line but not willing to bet against them despite thinking Essendon are a better team. I think WC will be desperate to win at home this week. No bet.

Rich v Melb: Melbourne are too short, but then so are Richmond lol.

Geel v Port: Geelong certainties but not getting involved

Ecstatic to have already got $1.94 for Collingwood on Betfair. Although I would like to have a bit more on so might take the $1.7. I still rate Collingwood really highly and Hawthorn just have too many obstacles/interruptions with players injured and now Buddy out. Plus I have said all year that I think they are overrated. Main thing holding me back is Hawks good record against collingwood but honestly their forward line isnt very good at the moment and their backline is pretty shaky as well. Plus I think they will have about 5 players with less than 15 games playing whereas Pies wont have any. Pies too good for me.

Adel v Carl: Definately not spending any money on Adelaide only question is if I can back Carlton. Probably not, considering their forward line is poor and their recent record against Ade is poor. I think it will be a tight game.

StK v Freo St Kilda should be about $1.10 in my book. Will be backing them in some form. They are a far superior side to Freo and they just know how to churn out the wins at Ethihad against these types of teams. Freo have been good but no way do they have a list that is capable of backing up that effort against Geelong with an away win against hard bodied saints. Extra 2 days break for Saints only helps, I think they will win comfortably.

 

[mike262]

50 free bet (from geelong being highest scoring losing team) on:

WCE/Bris/Coll/Geel/StK

at 7.51

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Dons coming off 2 consecutive 6-day breaks. Eagles to Cover.

Liking Adelaide and the Lions at home, any interstate team at evens is good value. Dogs still a little unknown, only win of note against the Hawks. Carlton were poor last week and will struggle in a less free-flowing game, Crows surprised in the corresponding fixture last year.

Rate the Hawks' chances as well, the Pies seem to be more suited to Etihad this year with their smallish forward line and depth across the midfield. The Hawks are a good MCG team and are value also.

Have to take the Tiges at +20.5, Dees shouldn't be 1.40 or less against anyone.

Cats, Swans and Saints to do it easy.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Have to take the Tiges at +20.5, Dees shouldn't be 1.40 or less against anyone.

This. Imagine taking the DEMONS to cover a 20 point line. Tigers value with a 3 goal headstart.

 

[asanque]

50 free bet (from geelong being highest scoring losing team) on:

Which agency was this from again?

Thanks in advance

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Dons coming off 2 consecutive 6-day breaks. Eagles to Cover.

Liking Adelaide and the Lions at home, any interstate team at evens is good value. Dogs still a little unknown, only win of note against the Hawks. Carlton were poor last week and will struggle in a less free-flowing game, Crows surprised in the corresponding fixture last year.

Rate the Hawks' chances as well, the Pies seem to be more suited to Etihad this year with their smallish forward line and depth across the midfield. The Hawks are a good MCG team and are value also.

Have to take the Tiges at +20.5, Dees shouldn't be 1.40 or less against anyone.

Cats, Swans and Saints to do it easy.

Nah, Collingwood prefer the MCG by alot. However, Hawks are great value. Smashed us the last few times they played us.

Is Buddy def out? That was soft.

Eagles will smash Essendon who beat an ordinary Carlton side.

 

[cynical]

Pies are definately much better on the larger mcg, they have a lot of outside mids who need a lot of space. Hence why they couldn't beat the saints.

In saying that hawks and pies are both unpredictable sides so i wouldnt touch that game.

 

[mattys123]

In saying that hawks and pies are both unpredictable sides so i wouldnt touch that game.

This is the only "true" statement I have heard anywhere on this whole forum (not just the betting board) about this game.

No one can pick this game clearly, both teams are capable of beating anyone on their day, but also capable of terrible performances, usually because they have no depth and a few injuries/suspensions.

Not a good game to bet on.

 

[Dr Awkward]

This is the only "true" statement I have heard anywhere on this whole forum (not just the betting board) about this game.

No one can pick this game clearly, both teams are capable of beating anyone on their day, but also capable of terrible performances, usually because they have no depth and a few injuries/suspensions.

Not a good game to bet on.

With the team that Hawthorn will name this Thursday night, the gameplan they are currently playing, and the form they are currently in, I disagree that they are capable of beating anyone on their day.

I have Collingwood marked @ $1.40 (if buddy isn't playing)

 

[Lensen]

I'm a little fearful of this week as my system's thrown 6 games at me worth betting on. Still, I have to have confidence in it!

My current balance for the year is +$1.43, raking in the big bucks! This week:

$100.10* on West Coast @ $1.6015
$100 on North Melbourne @ $2.5897
$100 on Adelaide @ $1.9336
$100 on Brisbane @ $2.0027
$100 on Richmond @ $3.6386
$100 on St Kilda @ $1.3654

*due to only being able to bet $68.10 on the odds I wanted at Betfair, and the next best were Sportsbet where I had to bet whole dollar amounts.

Make or break week, potentially. Still, I'm pretty confident with them all at the odds - WC & St Kilda are almost certainties in my book, Brisbane @ $2+ at home with Brownvola is enticing, North are coming together ok and I like @ $2.50+ (and haven't lost to Sydney in Melbourne for 14 years ), Carlton I don't rate at all and Adelaide need to bounce back, whilst I've just got a funny feeling about Richmond that this is their big week given Hardwick's big crackdown and that they've been under the pump. Any team $3.50 against Melbourne is worth having a crack at I reckon.

This time next week I'll potentially be wiped out though so we'll see

EDIT: And my weekly challenge is up to $30.39 - going on the Saints to win $11.46

 

[mike262]

Which agency was this from again?

Thanks in advance

sportingbet

 

[joxstrap]

Only bets this week are:

$100k on Cats and Saints double @1.51, and
$100k on Dogs @1.85, and
$30K on Sydney/Adelaide/Dogs @5.26, and
$200k on Cats @1.15

 

[lions_den]

Just easing into the season I see joxstrap.

 

[KikidadidaK]

doggies and swans are super value...wake up guys (if u haven't yet!), swans are the real deal...

 

[McCrann]

I'm a little fearful of this week as my system's thrown 6 games at me worth betting on. Still, I have to have confidence in it!

My current balance for the year is +$1.43, raking in the big bucks! This week:

$100.10* on West Coast @ $1.6015
$100 on North Melbourne @ $2.5897
$100 on Adelaide @ $1.9336
$100 on Brisbane @ $2.0027
$100 on Richmond @ $3.6386
$100 on St Kilda @ $1.3654

*due to only being able to bet $68.10 on the odds I wanted at Betfair, and the next best were Sportsbet where I had to bet whole dollar amounts.

Make or break week, potentially. Still, I'm pretty confident with them all at the odds - WC & St Kilda are almost certainties in my book, Brisbane @ $2+ at home with Brownvola is enticing, North are coming together ok and I like @ $2.50+ (and haven't lost to Sydney in Melbourne for 14 years ), Carlton I don't rate at all and Adelaide need to bounce back, whilst I've just got a funny feeling about Richmond that this is their big week given Hardwick's big crackdown and that they've been under the pump. Any team $3.50 against Melbourne is worth having a crack at I reckon.

This time next week I'll potentially be wiped out though so we'll see

EDIT: And my weekly challenge is up to $30.39 - going on the Saints to win $11.46

Betting on Richmond? Based on what?

Melbourne have been playing well for the past two weeks - and gave a fight against Hawthorn but gave up too easily.

What have Richmond done?

I think you're throwing your money away betting on the Tiges - and I can't wish you good luck because i know I'll be on Melbourne in some way.