AFL Round 7

[Lensen]

richmond will not beat fremantle

freo are legit

centrebet are offering freo at $1.73 after 2pm today, i'll be down for $35k's worth

bookmark

They've changed it from no limit to max $100, probably in fear of you. You mad?

 

[twarby]

yeah he mad

 

[STC]

Great value this round IMO:
Port +28.5 $1.91 (Hawthorn's poor record at AAMI + Port lift against some sides - winless sides & North are their achilles heel but they tend to play well against sides like Hawthorn & St Kilda at home)
Sydney win $2.15 (don't forget it's in Canberra, and the Dogs are shite)
Geelong 40+ $1.57
GC under 40 $10 (a team that has one win against a winless side great value, but probably won't touch anyway)
West Coast +29.5 $1.91 (or even win at $5, they rolled the Dons twice last year and though Essendon are much improved, so are West Coast)
Carlton -15.5 $1.91 (should smash St Kilda, the Saints hate fast teams)

Looking at putting $10 on most of those, any I should avoid?

 

[Syphoncom]

Argh, I'm so used to (-40) being a 40+ win, not the other way around, but I get where you're going. I think you've got a few + and - round the wrong way based on odds, correct me if I'm wrong

Personally, I can't see Port winning by 5 goals. They just don't have the guys on the park, they're clearly not playing to make the 8 this year and they're doing some soul searching etc following a disastrous week.

I think they'll put in a good show, maybe even 3-4 decent quarters, but I don't think they're gonna put on 4 quarters of football capable of beating the Hawks by 5.

GC, I definitely can't see winning. They're still mainly a bunch of kids. They've dropped Fraser (he's shit anyway), Brown is still out. I can't see this team beating what has been, despite their W/L records, a decent side in Brisbane. They've put together some decent performances this year without the results and will really want to turn it up for this game.

I've got Brisbane on the 1stQ line into a few multis, I would be amazed if they lost.

Rest I can see happening, WC are interesting. Such good value on them, it's hard not to take them, at least with a decent start.

 

[twarby]

Great value this round IMO:

Sydney win $2.15 (don't forget it's in Canberra, and the Dogs are shite)


Looking at putting $10 on most of those, any I should avoid?

what have Sydney done this year?
if the Dogs are shite, i'd love to know how you rate Sydney

 

[Hucky]

The odds for his Port line should be 1.91, apart from that I think everything is as it should be.

I'd stay the hell away from that GCS bet, there's no way they'll get up.

 

[twarby]

Argh, I'm so used to (-40) being a 40+ win, not the other way around, but I get where you're going. I think you've got a few + and - round the wrong way based on odds, correct me if I'm wrong

Personally, I can't see Port winning by 5 goals. They just don't have the guys on the park, they're clearly not playing to make the 8 this year and they're doing some soul searching etc following a disastrous week.

.

think its an error by him, should be 1.91

the PYOL wouldn't pay that much

 

[Bic]

Bet 365 have the over/under for tomorrow night set at 182.5... Seems way too high for me

Also like Boak over Shiels for DT @1.97

 

[cesc fabregas]

Is anyone having a punt on the Suns? There is some value there, yet everyone seems to think it is a foregone conclusion that the Lions will win.

 

[STC]

Argh, I'm so used to (-40) being a 40+ win, not the other way around, but I get where you're going. I think you've got a few + and - round the wrong way based on odds, correct me if I'm wrong

Personally, I can't see Port winning by 5 goals. They just don't have the guys on the park, they're clearly not playing to make the 8 this year and they're doing some soul searching etc following a disastrous week.

I think they'll put in a good show, maybe even 3-4 decent quarters, but I don't think they're gonna put on 4 quarters of football capable of beating the Hawks by 5.

You were correct the first time. 40+ means win by more than 40. +28.5 means with a 28.5 head start, which is on the line. And yeah I wrote what it would pay out if I put $10 on it rather than the odds.

GC, I definitely can't see winning. They're still mainly a bunch of kids. They've dropped Fraser (he's shit anyway), Brown is still out. I can't see this team beating what has been, despite their W/L records, a decent side in Brisbane. They've put together some decent performances this year without the results and will really want to turn it up for this game.

I've got Brisbane on the 1stQ line into a few multis, I would be amazed if they lost.

I agree it's an unlikely one, but so was them beating Port and look what happened. Brisbane aren't hopeless but they are struggling to finish off games and if it's close, you can't discount the GC. Like I said, it probably won't happen

what have Sydney done this year?
if the Dogs are shite, i'd love to know how you rate Sydney

Sydney have done about what you'd expect them to - they beat an Essendon team people are rating as potential top 4 material, they're the only team to beat West Coast at Subi this year and though they were outclassed by Carlton (coming off that feared bye) and Geelong, they haven't turned in a seriously "bad" performance yet. More than that, they're closer to home than the Dogs are, and mentally they are just a stronger outfit, more likely to respond to a disappointing loss with a win against a decent team. The Dogs will beat up on the shit teams when the time comes and make the 8, but don't let them fool you into thinking they can beat good teams - upstairs they're basketcases when the pressure's on.

 

[Hucky]

2 units - Adelaide @ 2.08
1 unit - Richmond @ 2.35
2 units - Brisbane QT -12.5 @ 1.85

 

[carn_freo]

where can i find the either team under 40 bet? or is it just worked out by two separate bets under 40 averaged out?

i want to put it into multis...

 

[The Big Woofer]

Under 182.5 is a good bet tonight, what might be even better is Haw team total under 105.5.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Sportingbet have 3 tri-bet options, 15.5, 24.5, 39.5.

Not sure if other books have the 39.5 tri-bet.

 

[Athomas]

Schulz Most Goals tonight - $15 at Sportsbet

 

[carn_freo]

i use ozbet and they only have the 15.5 tri bet.

cheers

 

[KardiniaPark]

I wonder how much Woofer has on Port tonight...

 

[The Big Woofer]

I wonder how much Woofer has on Port tonight...

I'm just saying $4.80 is big big odds, i wouldn't be taking Haw $1.20.....

i will be having a pretty decent bet on either Under 182.5 or Haw total under 105.5.....i don't think a cold night with some dew will do any favours for haw so i don't see them having a big win even against a team that has the heart size of a split pea.

 

[carn_freo]

attempting to sign up to sportingbet, does anyone know of any promo codes atm?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

They have their usual join offer, deposit $30 for a free $100 bet. Apparently doesn't apply to vic or sa residents, not sure if people here have had any luck with them in that regard.

Plus I think if you search around, there are probably a few codes that may once you a new customer?

 

[stuziman]

Schulz Most Goals tonight - $15 at Sportsbet

Centrebet has not listed him in most goals market...any other player at $10 with him in screams value to me.

Also $9 for first port goal at luxbet seems good too

He is listed ad starting at FF btw

 

[Athomas]

Centrebet has not listed him in most goals market...any other player at $10 with him in screams value to me.

Also $9 for first port goal at luxbet seems good too

He is listed ad starting at FF btw

He's $15 for first goal and $15 for most goals at Sportsbet. Have got on both.

Oh, value because he's with any other player ey? My bad. Still, I'm happy to take $15 on him over $9-10 on any other.

 

[Johanpetro]

They have their usual join offer, deposit $30 for a free $100 bet. Apparently doesn't apply to vic or sa residents, not sure if people here have had any luck with them in that regard.

Plus I think if you search around, there are probably a few codes that may once you a new customer?

Yeh when i signed up I didnt get my 100 bonus, so I rang them up and said my bonus bet didnt go in, and they immediately put it into my account. So if they dont add it, all you have to do is call them.

 

[twarby]

theres about $700 in codes you can probably get activated if you find them

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Also $9 for first port goal at luxbet seems good too

Into $7 now.