AFL round 8

[pacemaker]

Bets are out and there are some value around the Head to heads.

Fremantle at $1.93 at home againist Collingwood
Sydney at $2.11 at Canberra a Western Bulldogs home ground which will turn into a sydney home ground with the fans supporting the swans in that location
West Coast are $3 with line at 19.5+. Can the demons stop Josh Kennedy? Can the Eagles win away?

 

[pacemaker]

Essendon $2.97 with a line of 17.5+ againist Stkilda
Carlton $1.95 againist port at AAMI port are $1.84
Geelong $1.35 againist Brisbane $3.22 at the gabba

 

[Ferris_rules]

Bets are out and there are some value around the Head to heads.

Fremantle at $1.93 at home againist Collingwood
Sydney at $2.11 at Canberra a Western Bulldogs home ground which will turn into a sydney home ground with the fans supporting the swans in that location
West Coast are $3 with line at 19.5+. Can the demons stop Josh Kennedy? Can the Eagles win away?

Yeah I agree with that.

Freo is interesting. First time Pies leave Victoria this year and they do travel well.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Bets are out and there are some value around the Head to heads.

Fremantle at $1.93 at home againist Collingwood
Sydney at $2.11 at Canberra a Western Bulldogs home ground which will turn into a sydney home ground with the fans supporting the swans in that location
West Coast are $3 with line at 19.5+. Can the demons stop Josh Kennedy? Can the Eagles win away?

I must say i dislike all of your picks (except if you are saying you like carl & ess as i give both a chance)

Freo ( i love them--have won heaps on them this year) have had a tough couple of weeks & it started to show in the last qtr, Coll look like they have set themselves for this game & always lift for a big game interstate, i reckon the pies will be too good.

WBD match up well with the swannies these days & killed them up there last year, syd has no ruckmen with Mummy & Seaby both out & no backline.

WCE are rubbish & even more rubbish on the road, i reckon melb are a very nice upcoming young team & to answer your question re: Kennedy melb did well against Brown & Fev, they shut down Hall (albeit in wet) & i doubt they'll let Kennedy beat them. With the way WCE kicks the ball into their forward 50 (very poorly) the fast melb back will run it out all day.

 

[mike262]

Collingwood to win at 1.87.

Yes Please

 

[happy_punter]

this has to be the most difficult round yet in 2010.....with value of course!

cant say who to pick yet, waiting for teams

 

[Ferris_rules]

I would like to suggest to all to bet cautiously for this round.

This has "the bookies r*ped me" all over it come Sunday evening.

There is not one selection that I would say load up on.

 

[pacemaker]

I think you are under estimateing Fremantle at home and they are 2nd on the ladder and they will be competitive in this match.

Sydney basically play at home and the WB struggled againist a spirited demons line up

Yes the demons should win againist WCE in Melbourne but the WCE are due for a good performance in melbourne sooner or later. Did anyone take the $10 on them to beat the WB there last year? No people would say don't be stupid but did they have a nibble at the line? Yes. All depends on the game plan they play and believe the line is some value and will believe they can beat Melbourne

 

[mike262]

time will tell but i think collingwood win this one fairly easily.

Fremantle have yet to play a team that matches their pace.

Collingwood have the same pace as freo and IMO better skills.

Consider Coll 40+

 

[lions_den]

Coll/Melb/Carl/Dogs @8.34

 

[Ferris_rules]

this has to be the most difficult round yet in 2010.....with value of course!

cant say who to pick yet, waiting for teams

You definitely know what your doing!

I normally place a few bets early in the week with confidence.

I am holding back till team news, injuries and previews.

Im only betting (1.9%) 2% of the bank on this round.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Collingwood to win at 1.87.

Yes Please

This.

Pies interstate night game, dont lose

I hate to say this and dont usually bet against my own team but like Dogs @ 1.75 too. Will win easy imo.

 

[September 27 2008]

Sportingbet only have H2H bets up

Like Collingwood, Dogs, Dees and Cats. I'll be attacking these 4 games

Wouldn't touch Roos v Crows with a 10 ft pole. Likewise Carlton/Port but Blues played well last night and represent value. Hawks are shit, $1.18 not worth it. Saints looked flat, Essendon value but i'll be sticking clear

 

[Ferris_rules]

Sportingbet only have H2H bets up

Like Collingwood, Dogs, Dees and Cats. I'll be attacking these 4 games

Wouldn't touch Roos v Crows with a 10 ft pole. Likewise Carlton/Port but Blues played well last night and represent value. Hawks are shit, $1.18 not worth it. Saints looked flat, Essendon value but i'll be sticking clear

agree whole heartedly with the Hawks comment.

Crows game has danger written all over it.

Pies into dogs may be interesting.

the line bets will be really interesting as well.

 

[cynical]

if mumford is out id back the bulldogs

pies and freo could go either way, pies like big grounds like subi

melbourne have shown to be a decent side and at the mcg should thrash the eagles, way too much run and carry

bombers should exploit the saints with pace but dont think they have the same quality as carlton, might put a small bet on them

geelong will easily beat brisbane

port vs carlton meh who knows

same with north and the crows

 

[GoodesStuff]

time will tell but i think collingwood win this one fairly easily.

Fremantle have yet to play a team that matches their pace.

Collingwood have the same pace as freo and IMO better skills.

Consider Coll 40+

Carlton smashed Geelong and St. Kilda the 2 grand finalists from last season. In between those 2 floggings the pies smashed Carlton by 10 goals. Like Ive said, the pies love interstate night games. Plus Freo have to deal with B2B 6 day breaks, and had the long trip from Perth to the other side of the country, and back again in the last week. Freo will run out of legs IMO.

The 1.87 looks too good to pass up, and will be having a good go at that straight out & into the Dogs. Think I will just include the 40+ (which will be about 6.00-6.50) in my weekend multi.

 

[Pelkanet]

Safe bets:
-Melbourne H2H... Weagles can't win away and Melbourne in good form
-Hawthorn H2H I know their poor value, but if they don't win heads will be cut off
NOTHING ELSE IS A "SAFE BET"

 

[mike262]

i dont think hawthorn is a safe bet.

 

[September 27 2008]

I agree. Geelong alot safer than Hawks IMO

 

[RequiemBlade]

Considering Pies/Bulldogs/Demons either in a multi or some other combination.

 

[Lensen]

Loving Carlton @ $2.00 and the Swans at $2.26.

 

[maxlad]

is anyone gonna take the richmond/hawks halftime fulltime double at $6 richmond have burst out the blocks last 2 weeks and ran out of legs, and not against a strong opposition this week,i think its good value

 

[Cuzz09]

CentreBet:

Melbourne over 15.5: $1.76
Melbourne over 25: $2.14
Melbourne: 1-39: $2.16
Melbourne: 40+: $3.20

Cant see us doing a lot to be honest.

 

[Lakey91]

CentreBet:

Melbourne over 15.5: $1.76
Melbourne over 25: $2.14
Melbourne: 1-39: $2.16
Melbourne: 40+: $3.20

Cant see us doing a lot to be honest.

I think the bulldogs are just about a lock, as sad as it is for me to say it. Seaby, Mumford and Bolton are massive massive losses for us, with LRT not 100% certain to come back either. That said, a lack of talls might not be a massive problem against the dogs due to their smaller players, but I still think we will struggle.

Dogs have also won the last 4 against us (18, 16, 37 and 40 points the margins).

I think that the 1.70 on offer is good value.

Other than that, I will probably sit out this round - might put a large bet on Geelong, but I think that all the other games could go either way.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Early thoughts:

Bulldogs are special value this week. I think they match up well against Sydney and are a better team, Sydney starting to lose some momentum and whilst Dogs havn't done much right this year either I still think they have a very quality team and 22 players without any weak points.

My gut instinct leans towards Collingwood, I like it when teams go interstate after a couple of reasonably comfortable rounds, especially if they are a quality team like Collingwood. But very wary of betting against Freo at this stage, havn't really latched onto their form that well this year.

Hawthorn are way too short against Richmond but I will wait to see the teams... Maybe take Richmond at the line although Richmond have not covered many lines this year.

Potentially looking at Essendon to cover line.

Didn't see enough games on the weekend though, going to watch some replays during the week and as usual will post final bets on Friday.