Analyzing the fixture (The Break down)

[Tas]

Cunnington out is a huge advantage to us and is why we must win this game on paper

He is in great shape and pre-season form too, so it is sad that he was suspended. In saying that, playing Cunnington, Swallow and Ziebell in the same side almost always sees two play okay and one not get any of the ball. You can't really get 3 in and under mids dominate. That being said, I would have preferred if Cunnington wasn't the one that was missing.

 

[Tas]

1 v North (ES) - 70-30 - win. North fans should be confident because of the home ground/round 1/lack of NN and Lycett factors, but we deserve to be favourites

I don't really think the home ground will make a huge difference, you guys play enough on that ground for it to not be a factor. We have been okay in the pre-season, but still a fair bit of unknown. We need the 24-26 year old group to step up this year, hard to crystal ball if they will or wont.

I think the team we pick will be critical if we are going to have a shot or not and we have traditionally been pretty ordinary when it comes to picking the right side for the opposition we are going to face.

 

[kranky al]

Wow that draw sure is nice.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

17 wins.

W - Kangas
W - Saints
W - Tigers
W - Swans
50/50 - Hawks
W - Freo
W - Port
W - Dogs
W - Bombers
W - GWS
W - Suns
W - Geelong
W - Demons
L - Dogs
W - Port
W - Freo
L - Pies
W - Lions
W - Saints
W - Blues
L - GWS
50/50 - Crows

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Here's where the Squiggle sees it all ending up:

Strangely the game by game breakdown only indicates 7 losses, but I am not a Squiggle expert so this may be a split of some 50-50 games. Of those 7, I think we can beat the Hawks and Port. Some others are genuine 50-50 match ups if we are in good form. We are due to pump the Pies over there surely? Playing at Etihad may assist us when we come up against them.

This is from here --------> https://maxbarry.com/squiggle/#info


This is how the ladder will look if the squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if the squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.