Anthony Albanese - How long? -3-

[Festerz]

Looks like the government is failing to curtail inflation and interest rates might be on the way up. The uptick is not a global issue. The Euro area, Canada, South Korea all have inflation starting with a 2.

Also failing to deliver cheaper electricity. It seems cheaper power only happens with energy bill rebates which masks underlying inflation.

Not really.

The ABS report makes it clear that electricity prices have fallen in recent months.

But the simple fact of how inflation is measured means that when a government introduces a huge subsidy to lower the cost of a major component of the CPI it has a downward impact on inflation. And when that subsidy is removed a subsequent upward impact is is the result. This impact will be felt over several months as is explained in the ABS assessment in the ABC report linked earlier.

This is NOT to say that the rise in inflation is not a concern or that the full network costs of electricity supply in the eastern seaboard is not a long term issue. it definitely is and this has been acknowledged by the Gov response to the data this week.

But my point is that it’s important to focus on the real factors causing upward pressures on inflation rather than the headline numbers.

 

[Festerz]

Oh, btw that's not to say a targeted subsidy aimed at reducing the impact of a major market driven rise in the cost of key component in living costs does not make sound sense on both social and economic grounds. It does.

But that support should be properly targeted to areas of greatest need instead of being universally and automatically provided to all regardless of wealth and income.

And it can’t and shouldn’t replace sustainable long term policy action to fix the market failure it’s addressing. That’s where my previous posts on the failure of successive governments to fix the energy market as we move to Net Zero comes into play.

 

[Crankyhawk]

For my information, what is the statute of limitations on that sort of thing? In Victoria, the current Labor Party like bringing up stuff done last century. I'd just like to know at what point humans are allowed to change their minds.

For the record, I think abandoning a commitment to net zero is problematic.

The question of “change of mind” makes it easy to prosecute a case of “no principles/ no idea/ no plan” which is an accumulation of the perception of the lnp currently. Junking net zero adds to this perception especially when it was your own personal policy

 

[Crankyhawk]

Oh, btw that's not to say a targeted subsidy aimed at reducing the impact of a major market driven rise in the cost of key component in living costs does not make sound sense on both social and economic grounds. It does.

But that support should be properly targeted to areas of greatest need instead of being universally and automatically provided to all regardless of wealth and income.

And it can’t and shouldn’t replace sustainable long term policy action to fix the market failure it’s addressing. That’s where my previous posts on the failure of successive governments to fix the energy market as we move to Net Zero comes into play.

Sometimes universal application is simpler and cheaper than trying to operationalise means testing though

 

[The Punter]

The question of “change of mind” makes it easy to prosecute a case of “no principles/ no idea/ no plan” which is an accumulation of the perception of the lnp currently. Junking net zero adds to this perception especially when it was your own personal policy

I mean, it was their policy. I don't think they came up with the idea of net zero, which is what I would understand "own personal policy" to mean.

Yes, they'll absolutely cop it for "not having a plan", and to be completely honest, they probably should. But viewpoints evolve, more evidence develops, and circumstances change. Perhaps not the best issue to get on this bugbear of mine, but considering plenty (not you) around here barrack and don't argue in good faith, I thought I'd give it a bash.

As I have stated many times, we need to be reducing emissions, and I welcome the news yesterday that we reduced emissions considerably in FY 2024-25. If it were me, I would pare everything back to setting an emissions reduction target and finding a market based solution to achieve that, but the parliamentary party have had many, many opportunities to do that and have not met that moment at any stage.

 

[nut]

I mean, it was their policy. I don't think they came up with the idea of net zero, which is what I would understand "own personal policy" to mean.

Yes, they'll absolutely cop it for "not having a plan", and to be completely honest, they probably should. But viewpoints evolve, more evidence develops, and circumstances change. Perhaps not the best issue to get on this bugbear of mine, but considering plenty (not you) around here barrack and don't argue in good faith, I thought I'd give it a bash.

As I have stated many times, we need to be reducing emissions, and I welcome the news yesterday that we reduced emissions considerably in FY 2024-25. If it were me, I would pare everything back to setting an emissions reduction target and finding a market based solution to achieve that, but the parliamentary party have had many, many opportunities to do that and have not met that moment at any stage.

So for nine years under the LNP we relied on the market…. How did that work?
Nine years of no policy …..
Do you honestly believe relying on the market and the greed of corporations to fix emissions would work….

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

So for nine years under the LNP we relied on the market…. How did that work?
Nine years of no policy …..
Do you honestly believe relying on the market and the greed of corporations to fix emissions would work….

A carbon tax is relying on the market.

A market is simply what comes into existence once a set of parameters are established for a situation where there is the potential to make profits and losses.

Those parameters can include government edict.

 

[The Punter]

So for nine years under the LNP we relied on the market…. How did that work?
Nine years of no policy …..
Do you honestly believe relying on the market and the greed of corporations to fix emissions would work….

They didn't rely on the market to reduce emissions. Abbott promised and implemented a direct intervention to replace the carbon tax. Turnbull and Frydenberg attempted to implement a market based solution and it was the literal end of Turnbull's premiership.

The market and corporations are people just like you are a person. They are not a different species. But I make a point and you are like "no, don't admit you were wrong this way, admit it the way I want".

There is no avoiding the fact that the parliamentary party have not met the moment for 16 years now and counting on emissions and energy.

And the fact that we did not rely on the market is a sore point for many party members, who tend to be the same ones who supported same sex marriage, voted for The Voice, and want to see the party move away from being culture warriors and once again focus on common-sense solutions to real problems.

I stipulate you will have a problem with this explanation.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I mean, it was their policy. I don't think they came up with the idea of net zero, which is what I would understand "own personal policy" to mean.

Yes, they'll absolutely cop it for "not having a plan", and to be completely honest, they probably should. But viewpoints evolve, more evidence develops, and circumstances change. Perhaps not the best issue to get on this bugbear of mine, but considering plenty (not you) around here barrack and don't argue in good faith, I thought I'd give it a bash.

As I have stated many times, we need to be reducing emissions, and I welcome the news yesterday that we reduced emissions considerably in FY 2024-25. If it were me, I would pare everything back to setting an emissions reduction target and finding a market based solution to achieve that, but the parliamentary party have had many, many opportunities to do that and have not met that moment at any stage.

I took it to mean own personal policy in how Taylor at the time was selling his belief in it
Of course, if one takes the "politicians lie and sell shit they don't believe in line" (as in it was policy that Taylor spruiked while not having strong convictions on it) then fair enough - but then the LNP should not be surprised to have this supposed backflip weaponised against them

 

[Crankyhawk]

They didn't rely on the market to reduce emissions. Abbott promised and implemented a direct intervention to replace the carbon tax. Turnbull and Frydenberg attempted to implement a market based solution and it was the literal end of Turnbull's premiership.

The market and corporations are people just like you are a person. They are not a different species. But I make a point and you are like "no, don't admit you were wrong this way, admit it the way I want".

There is no avoiding the fact that the parliamentary party have not met the moment for 16 years now and counting on emissions and energy.

And the fact that we did not rely on the market is a sore point for many party members, who tend to be the same ones who supported same sex marriage, voted for The Voice, and want to see the party move away from being culture warriors and once again focus on common-sense solutions to real problems.

I stipulate you will have a problem with this explanation.

I thought there was commentary from the market (ie energy companies) that the lack of a coherent policy from the LNP was undermining their ability to make longer term investment decisions. Will try to find a link which is from around the time

edit
One from 2016

Coalition's 'war on solar' has sector cutting back, industry groups say

Australia's solar energy sector is facing further job losses amid falling numbers of new rooftop installations amid a lack of support during the Abbott-Turnbull governments, industry representatives say.

www.smh.com.au

Australia’s energy sector is in critical need of reform

Australia’s energy policy has lost its way over the past couple of decades, which is unfortunate because the challenges – to move to a low-carbon economy without high prices – have never been tougher.

theconversation.com

"The upshot was that 2013-16 has left the energy industry with huge uncertainty about what is in store, at a time when it craves reassurance more than ever."

 

[The Punter]

I took it to mean own personal policy in how Taylor at the time was selling his belief in it
Of course, if one takes the "politicians lie and sell shit they don't believe in line" (as in it was policy that Taylor spruiked while not having strong convictions on it) then fair enough - but then the LNP should not be surprised to have this supposed backflip weaponised against them

I mean, everything gets weaponised these days, and the general torpor on this issue gives Labor plenty of ammunition.

I thought there was commentary from the market (ie energy companies) that the lack of a coherent policy from the LNP was undermining their ability to make longer term investment decisions. Will try to find a link

That is my recollection as well, but the NEG was an attempt to provide that long-term certainty the market wanted.

 

[Saint]

Not really.

The ABS report makes it clear that electricity prices have fallen in recent months.

But the simple fact of how inflation is measured means that when a government introduces a huge subsidy to lower the cost of a major component of the CPI it has a downward impact on inflation. And when that subsidy is removed a subsequent upward impact is is the result. This impact will be felt over several months as is explained in the ABS assessment in the ABC report linked earlier.

This is NOT to say that the rise in inflation is not a concern or that the full network costs of electricity supply in the eastern seaboard is not a long term issue. it definitely is and this has been acknowledged by the Gov response to the data this week.

But my point is that it’s important to focus on the real factors causing upward pressures on inflation rather than the headline numbers.

Electricity is about to go back up as international gas prices are spiking.

20 years ago, this didn't matter, but now the gas companies can export gas, we get the international price. Somebody tried to tax the profits on price spikes, but the Liberals and moderate ALP weren't having it.

 

[JackFlash]

Energy, food and housing should be the number concern for most Australians besides the obvious crime and safety issues, but i wonder if enough Australians really care? The last five years have not been that good here in OZ, electricity prices have nearly doubled, rising by approximately 90 per cent, while food prices have increased by around 20 per cent, and rents have grown by 25–30 per cent. The daily financial pressures faced by vulnerable Australians is becoming insurmountable. Still, Australians are predicted to spend $6.8 billion between now and Monday over the "Black Friday" weekend sales. I guess all is well?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Energy, food and housing should be the number concern for most Australians besides the obvious crime and safety issues, but i wonder if enough Australians really care? The last five years have not been that good here in OZ, electricity prices have nearly doubled, rising by approximately 90 per cent, while food prices have increased by around 20 per cent, and rents have grown by 25–30 per cent. The daily financial pressures faced by vulnerable Australians is becoming insurmountable. Still, Australians are predicted to spend $6.8 billion between now and Monday over the "Black Friday" weekend sales. I guess all is well?

People would rather spend money and complain (and vote Labor while doing so) than actually do anything about it. It's nihilism on mass, it's naarm-core mate. $7 latte and $250 Salomons, but hey - you voted Labor so something might magically change at some point.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

People would rather spend money and complain (and vote Labor while doing so) than actually do anything about it. It's nihilism on mass, it's naarm-core mate. $7 latte and $250 Salomons, but hey - you voted Labor so something might magically change at some point.

You can buy coffee from Aldi mate. Perhaps you should try cutting back on the smashed avo?

But yeah I agree on the first point, JackFlash does complain a lot.

 

[Festerz]

ABS data released yesterday shows a strong improvement in business confidence and investment:

• Total new capital expenditure rose by 6.4% - the largest increase since March quarter 2021
• Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 11.5%
• Buildings and structures rose by 2.1%
• Estimates for 2025-26 is $191.3b. This is 9.4% higher than Estimate for 2025-26

This strong growth in capex and business confidence, coupled with rising global optimism on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month saw the ASX up 2.3% today.

The worry is of course that this, and stronger than expected household discretionary expenditure, creates unexpected inflationary momentum and has dampened yet further any chance of a rate cut early next year.

The Australian newspaper hid the news on page 2 of today's paper:

 

[JackOutback]

Energy, food and housing should be the number concern for most Australians besides the obvious crime and safety issues, but i wonder if enough Australians really care? The last five years have not been that good here in OZ, electricity prices have nearly doubled, rising by approximately 90 per cent, while food prices have increased by around 20 per cent, and rents have grown by 25–30 per cent. The daily financial pressures faced by vulnerable Australians is becoming insurmountable. Still, Australians are predicted to spend $6.8 billion between now and Monday over the "Black Friday" weekend sales. I guess all is well?

The obvious answer is, not everyone is doing it tough. Those with lots to spend have a little more to spend, and this with not enough, have less. It's the neoliberalism way.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

The obvious answer is, not everyone is doing it tough. Those with lots to spend have a little more to spend, and this with not enough, have less. It's the neoliberalism way.

I would dare suggest the wrong people are doing it tough.

 

[QuietB]

People would rather spend money and complain (and vote Labor while doing so) than actually do anything about it. It's nihilism on mass, it's naarm-core mate. $7 latte and $250 Salomons, but hey - you voted Labor so something might magically change at some point.

Who else can we vote for?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The 2025 edition of the Australian Election Study was released today and provides some interesting trends on voting patterns.

It confirms that the immense unpopularity of Peter Dutton compared with Albanese was a key factor in giving the ALP its biggest margin of victory since 1943.

But of more interest is what it says about voting trends amongst different age groups and genders.

The study points out that whereas women used to be further to the right of men, in their attitude sand vote choices, now we see the opposite where men, on average, are further to the right of women.

The 2025 Australian Election Study results reveal significant gender differences in voting.

- While 37% of men gave their first preference vote to the Coalition, only 28% percent of women did so.

- Labor attracted 5 percent more votes from women, than men.

- The Greens had the most significant gender gap of all, attracting 10 percent more votes from women than men.

- A greater proportion of men cast their vote for a minor party or an independent.

The study authors say this pattern of voter behaviour reflects the modern gender gap, whereby women are further to the left of men. This has been observed in other advanced democracies around the world.

View attachment 2485873


In summary, the Coalition have lost significant support from women, with the proportion of women voting for the Coalition declining by 19 percent over the past 12 years.

"Such a significant group of voters cannot be overlooked.While campaign dynamics, policies and leaders arefactors in the 2025 result, these longer-term changes are gradually reshaping the composition of the electorate and voter behaviour. Both generational change and women’s large scale drift away from the Coalition are key to understanding the historic loss for the Coalition in 2025."

And the study also provides cold comfort for conservative parties in terms of their past reliance on ageing voters.

"Across the democratic world younger voters generally tend to prefer parties and candidates of the left and centre left more so than older voters; over the life course, the typical pattern is for voters to slowly gravitate towards voting for more conservative parties."

"Each Australian Election Study from 1987 generally supports this conclusion: at least as a first approximation, as age increases, support for Labor modestly declines. The 2025 election revealed continued significant slowing and even reversals of this pattern.'

"Even under the conventional theory of drift towards conservative parties over the life course, the trajectory for these cohorts is starting from an unprecedented low level of support for the Coalition. Slightly older cohorts — Millennials in particular — are defying the conventional ‘conservative maturation’ theory, their support for the Coalition falling over the last four elections."

Interesting that Lib + Labor = very similar. While Greens + other wackjobs = roughly the same.

 

[sdfc]

ABS data released yesterday shows a strong improvement in business confidence and investment:

• Total new capital expenditure rose by 6.4% - the largest increase since March quarter 2021
• Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 11.5%
• Buildings and structures rose by 2.1%
• Estimates for 2025-26 is $191.3b. This is 9.4% higher than Estimate for 2025-26

View attachment 2487392
This strong growth in capex and business confidence, coupled with rising global optimism on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month saw the ASX up 2.3% today.

The worry is of course that this, and stronger than expected household discretionary expenditure, creates unexpected inflationary momentum and has dampened yet further any chance of a rate cut early next year.

The Australian newspaper hid the news on page 2 of today's paper:

View attachment 2487398

Info media and telecommunications spending on machinery and equipment up 91%. Looks like data centre investment exploded. Another competitor for resources with decarb. If the AI robots don't hurry up we're going to run short of labour.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Interesting take on this weeks Redbridge polling.

Contrary to much of the commentary here, the Labor primary vote is consistent across all generations with the exception of the Gen Z where it is over 50%.


View attachment 2481369

Will Gen Z stay this way or become more conservative as they age? The ON representation looks too high.

Gen Z might skew a bit more conservative as they age but Millennials are tracking to lay waste the idea that people drift right as they get older according to this;

Millennials are the first generation to move left as they age

Millennials are bucking trends, becoming an increasingly progressive voting bloc and rewriting the long-held rules of politics, writes Isabella Higgins.

www.abc.net.au

Wed 26 November 2025

Millennials came of age as the internet and smartphones redefined the world, and now they are the generation rewriting the rules of Australian politics.

They are defying the long-held wisdom that voters often become more conservative as they age, and are, in fact, becoming more progressive as they mature.

The findings come from the latest Australian Election Study (AES) from the Australian National University, one of the most substantial deep dives into voting trends at federal elections conducted since 1987.

Millennials' support for the Coalition fell from 38 per cent in 2016 to 21 per cent in 2025, while Labor's support rose from 33 per cent to 37 per cent, the latest AES found.

The trend has surprised the experts behind the study, who still observe the "conservative maturation theory" among older Australian generations.

This new phenomenon promises to challenge Australia's conservative parties moving forward, as they attempt to win over this key demographic...

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Guess I could have posted this on one of the footy threads too.

Anyway, sounds seriously rotten and good on the Greens for doing the due diligence Labor should be doing.

AFL clubs implicated with security firm linked to Finks bikie gang

Confidential company files outline MA Services’ strategy of encouraging AFL clubs to give the firm cleaning and security contracts in return for sponsorship.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Gen Z might skew a bit more conservative as they age but Millennials are tracking to lay waste the idea that people drift right as they get older according to this;

Screwing over an entire generation has backfired on the majors.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Guess I could have posted this on one of the footy threads too.

Anyway, sounds seriously rotten and good on the Greens for doing the due diligence Labor should be doing.

AFL clubs implicated with security firm linked to Finks bikie gang

Confidential company files outline MA Services’ strategy of encouraging AFL clubs to give the firm cleaning and security contracts in return for sponsorship.

www.smh.com.au

And good on the Geelong Football Club and the Geelong City Council (who administer Kardinia Park). I hope they were the whistleblowers to AFL House about this!

AFL clubs implicated with security firm linked to Finks bikie gang

Confidential company files outline MA Services’ strategy of encouraging AFL clubs to give the firm cleaning and security contracts in return for sponsorship.

www.smh.com.au

...The move by some AFL clubs to cosy up with MA Services stands in stark contrast to the decision of Geelong’s home ground, Kardinia Park, which cut ties with MA Services after investigations uncovered evidence the firm was using unlicensed subcontractors to conduct work or supplying non-existent or “ghosted” security guards.

MA’s alleged misconduct at the Cats’ home ground adds to that exposed by this masthead on Thursday, with The Age revealing the firm had faced years of persistent allegations from company insiders of serious wrongdoing involving systemic mistreatment and exploitation of staff, including women. Those claims are further supported by internal documents and public court cases...