Arbitrage-Middles Thread

[HumanMeatball]

Yeah you do. They haven’t voided the bet at all so I think it should be sweet

 

[targett]

Carolina vs Atlanta NFL : Round 9
Home Line - Away Exotic Line
(13.50) 1.21 UniBet (By 14+) 7.50 William Hill
4.02%

 

[targett]

Orlando vs Chicago NBA
Over - Under TGS
u207.50 1.91 William Hill o207.50 2.25 Pinnacle
3.2%

 

[targett]

Houston vs Indianapolis NFL Over - Under TGS
u51.50 1.97 UniBet o51.50 2.14 Pinnacle
2.51%

 

[54Dogs]

 

[HumanMeatball]

Kicking myself I didn’t load up more on that 30% arb

 

[HumanMeatball]

Is there actually any decent tools or websites for finding arbs?

 

[targett]

Melbourne City vs Sydney FC A-League Home Asian - Away DNB
(0.00) 2.64 Pinnacle 1.67 TAB Sportsbet
2.24%

 

[targett]

England vs Lebanon (Rugby League World Cup)
Over - Under / Total Tries
(u9.50) 1.87 UniBet
(o9.50) 2.26 TopBetta.com.au
2.28%

 

[targett]

San Antonio vs Charlotte NBA
Over - Under Game Totals
(u201.50) 1.85 Pinnacle
(o201.50) 2.3UniBet
2.58%

 

[X_box_X]

Samoa +12.5 at $1.80 w Crownbet
Tonga -10 at $2 w Topsport

 

[X_box_X]

Samoa over 12.5 pts at $2.04 w Betfair
Samoa under 13.5 pts at $1.99 w Topsport

 

[targett]

Papua New Guinea vs Ireland
Rugby League World Cup
Home Line - Away Line Handicap
(-12.50) 1.89 Pinnacle
(12.50) 2.50 CrownBet
7.15%

 

[ricardogp]

Starting soon...
Tennis: ITF Tokyo
Hosonuma v Cheong
Sportsbet: Hosonuma $4.60
Ladbrokes: Cheong $1.29

Converts Sportsbet bonus bet at 80%

 

[Sabbathen]

ITF Bratislava
Viola $2.10 B365
Desein $2.00 Lads
2.44%

 

[Beardown1023]

I just found this page and get into this stuff myself.
One I had today was Beathard over 170.5 passing yards at $1.88 and under 225.5 at $1.91.
Will post some up for now on

 

[Dan26]

NFL tomorrow

Marvin Jones under 57.5 receiving yards 1.87 Sportsbet
Marvin Jones over 52.5 receiving yards 1.88 Crownbet

 

[Dan26]

NFL tomorrow

Jordy Nelson over 45.5 receiving yards 1.87 Sportsbet
Jordy Nelson under 49.5 receiving yards 1.88 Crownbet

 

[X_box_X]

NFL tomorrow

Jordy Nelson over 45.5 receiving yards 1.87 Sportsbet
Jordy Nelson under 49.5 receiving yards 1.88 Crownbet

To break even long term here, Nelson would have to record 46-49 receiving yards once in every 14, or 7.143% of the time. I would prefer either greater odds, or more margin between the two lines.

 

[Dan26]

To break even long term here, Nelson would have to record 46-49 receiving yards once in every 14, or 7.143% of the time. I would prefer either greater odds, or more margin between the two lines.

At what odds would you take the bet?

 

[X_box_X]

At what odds would you take the bet?

I only bothered looking at Nelson's stats since the start of 2014, and not once (in almost 60 games) did he record between 46-49 receiving yards in a single game. I just don't think you'd end up ahead long term if you took that bet 100 times.

For me to even entertain that middle you posted, I'd want to target a player with a low standard deviation. Inconsistent players who get 20 receivings yards one week and up to 120 the next aren't as likely to make you a long term profit with hundreds of attempts using the middle you posted. A player who rarely falls below 30 and rarely goes above 70 would be more appealing to me, and especially players who have a higher percentage of receiving yards around the target of 46-49.

As a rule, I target players with a low standard deviation with a 10-point middle if I am getting around $1.87 odds. I generally find about five or six of these per week, so I don't bother going for anything less than that.

 

[Dan26]

I only bothered looking at Nelson's stats since the start of 2014, and not once (in almost 60 games) did he record between 46-49 receiving yards in a single game. I just don't think you'd end up ahead long term if you took that bet 100 times.

For me to even entertain that middle you posted, I'd want to target a player with a low standard deviation. Inconsistent players who get 20 receivings yards one week and up to 120 the next aren't as likely to make you a long term profit with hundreds of attempts using the middle you posted. A player who rarely falls below 30 and rarely goes above 70 would be more appealing to me, and especially players who have a higher percentage of receiving yards around the target of 46-49.

As a rule, I target players with a low standard deviation with a 10-point middle if I am getting around $1.87 odds. I generally find about five or six of these per week, so I don't bother going for anything less than that.

You're the master

 

[targett]

Jazine vs Zadar Basketball Croatian
Home Line - Away Line
(24.00) 2.29 Pinnacle
(-21.50) 1.83 TattsBet
1.69 %
middle

 

[Dan26]

NBA New Orleans vs Indiana Pacers

Thadeus Young over 5.5 rebounds sportsbet 2.19
Thadeus Young under 5.5 rebounds Crownbet 1.88

 

[Dan26]

Had another arb on an over/under assists market for an individual player on the Portland game and sportsbet changed the odds from 2.16 to 1.87 as I placed the bet. I came back 10 minutes later and the odds had changed again back up to 2.06

Bastards.