Analysis Assessing the Midfield

[Dylan82]

2019 Post Season update.

Top 50 players for the 2019 season according to this means of ranking (minimum 5 games played):



Top 50 midfield rankings 2019: note once again the highest ranked player is also the Brownlow medallist (since 2010 only twice has that year's medallist placed outside of the top three rankings).

Yeo placing at #2 is the highest rank of an Eagle since Judd being ranked top in 2007.
Shuey consolidates his top 10 rank from 2018 with another this year.
Sheed breaks inside the top 20 with a career best season.
Gaff attains a place inside the top 50 for the first time in his career.

As you can see also, current trading target T.Kelly is ranked #11, a significant improvement from his #38 from 2018.


West Coast are the only club in the competition to have three players ranked inside the top 20.

When compared to the rest of the competition, it becomes apparent just how much quality our midfield now has at its disposal:

​

Club midfield rankings comparison: Top 4 players, post trade period 2018 and post season 2019. Note West Coast is a standout #1 here, ahead of the Bulldogs and GWS.​

We have apparently the best ranked midfield yet were also last for contested possessions this season. Something clearly isn't adding up.


Here is the list of club midfield rankings for the 2019 season:

​

West Coast Eagles midfield rankings 2019: note the improvement from the top tier then a precipitous fall in quality thereafter, particularly from 8th onward.​

This is an image of frustration. The club may well have the greatest amount of top tier midfielders in the competition, yet has no depth at all to support them.

This time last year only two of the above rankings were outside of 300; now it is 8. That is the explanation for the season right there.



Conversely, let's have a look at this season's premiers:

​

Richmond midfield rankings 2019: note every single player here is ranked inside the top 300.​

The profile here is completely different. There are numbers throughout the squad that are capable of providing an impact to the midfield.


Indeed, if we take this further it can be seen that the club is dead last in this area when compared to the rest of the competition:

​

Competition midfield rankings 2019: note the significant drop in quality by West Coast at an earlier stage than their rivals. ​

This season cannot be judged anything other than a missed opportunity.

The midfield had enough quality, but were unable to be supported adequately by the rest of the team.


The evidence when taken together suggests there is potentially something far greater than midfield improvement which needs addressing.

Obviously the procurement of another top-level player such as T.Kelly will enhance midfield output, but unless underlying issues in regard to gameday structure are corrected, I feel the deficiencies identified here will remain and once again limit the team's performance.

Further notes:​

• refer to the OP for the method of ranking calculation.
• this method is far from perfect, but allows an "apples-for-apples" comparison with previous seasons going back to 2005.
• There is a more comprehensive ranking system that covers other positions in addition to midfielders available within the Squad Selection & Ratings resource.
• I will post a further update after the trading period is concluded.

 

[Dylan82]

How the player trading period affected midfields across the competition:



As can be seen 2019 was a very quiet exchange period, with just a single player (T.Kelly) within the top 75 ranked midfielders changing clubs. For comparison, in the 2018 period this figure was six.

With so few moves being made it is clear the club that has benefited the most in regard to midfield supremacy is West Coast.
Not only have they retained the highest rank in the competition for midfield quality, the acquisition of T.Kelly has dramatically improved their midfield depth, moving up from 14th to 3rd.

Some other points of note include:

• Geelong, with the loss of T.Kelly, make the largest fall in terms of quality. If J.Steven is unable to replicate previous form (8th, 18th and 19th during 2016-18) the Cats will be going into 2020 with Dangerfield as a one-man-midfield. They also now have the oldest midfield in the league.
• The losses of B.Deledio, A.Tomlinson and A.Bonar means GWS lose the greatest amount of positions in terms of depth. With a ready-to-go bull in T.Green headed to them in the draft however, I doubt they will be too worried.
• Fremantle made the biggest change in age profile to their midfield, moving from 2nd to 8th oldest - much of this is due to the retirement of Sandilands though.
• The exodus from the Crows has left them with very little depth, particularly in regard to inside midfielders.
• In picking up Ellis-Yolmen, Brisbane improved their midfield depth to 2nd in the competition and addressed a deficiency they had in terms of inside midfield numbers. For a team that is always considered so young, the age profile of Brisbane's midfield is now the 4th oldest of all clubs.
• Sydney are looming for a dark 2020. The worst midfield ranking of all clubs in terms of both quality and depth and almost entirely reliant upon two players who will be respectively 28 and 32 years old next year. T.Papley wants to leave and C.Sinclair is turning 31. Yet the play they made during the trade period was for a full forward with a terrible history of injuries. It really does make one question what they are doing in regard to the management of their list. Fortunately for them, they didn't part with their 1st pick next year - it will probably be #2. They will be in need of it and some.
• St Kilda, despite featuring in more exchanges than any other club, failed to improve their midfield ranking. They still have the highest rating for midfield depth in the competition however, and combined with the 4th youngest age profile, improvements in quality will soon follow organically.
• Western Bulldogs have the youngest midfield age profile in the competition, yet also have the 2nd ranked midfield in terms of quality. It is only a matter of time before they present as a serious challenger to the premiership.
• Richmond rankings are impacted by the number of injuries their players had during the first half of the season. At the start of the 2019 season they were ranked inside the top five clubs for both midfield quality and depth. For the period from the mid-season bye onwards, they are inside the top three for both rankings.

The Eagles now have without question the highest quality midfield at their disposal:




And have improved their midfield depth by a greater margin than any other club:





Indeed, under this ranking system, the club now has one of the strongest midfield groups it has ever assembled:




Which is also the continuance of a trend which has been in place since 2016:





The club is in a very enviable position. One could argue that anything less than a Grand Final appearance in 2020 would be a disappointment considering the arsenal of talent it now has at its disposal.

With the midfield, so long an area of contention and weakness, now one of great strength.

 

[Dylan82]

Time for a mid-season update.

After completion of Round 10 the top 50 under this rating are as follows:


Top 50 players (minimum 4 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.


West Coast are currently the only club with five players placed within the top 50 for this rating.


Indeed, when tallying the combined best six, the club is well in front of the rest of the competition as per expectations at the start of the season.


The trade acquisition of Kelly is already having a significant impact in just half a season.


Beyond this there remains a chasm in depth - this typified 2019 - the difference this year is the obvious inclusion of Kelly and the rejuvenation of Naitanui.


Note the dips in individual output as Kelly is accommodated, but improvement in the team output overall.

The other notable observation is that six of the above top 20 within the club did not even rank inside the top 500 in 2019. That is a significant shift for any club, lest one that is hunting for the premiership. Considering four of the nine matches to Round 10 by the club were played before the tactical shift that liberated Nelson, Duggan and Cole to impact higher up the ground, it will be interesting to see how this progresses through the rest of the season.


Because that next level of midfield support is the weak spot of this team.


Note the few numbers of players in the light green and yellow brackets at West Coast in comparison to premiership rivals.

Development of players to fill this gap will consolidate the dominance that the elite talent at the club is able to provide.


The club's midfield has without question the highest quality available in the competition - and with a terrible 1-3 start growing smaller with each passing week, these ratings are likely to improve further during the rest of the season. The key question mark hangs over the supporting group and what improvement may come from there - the ultimate success or failure of the year will be heavily dependent on this outcome.

 

[Dylan82]

So season 2020 is done.

Here are the top 50 players for the 2020 season according to this means of ranking (minimum 5 games played):


Top 50 midfield rankings 2020: note once again the highest ranked player is also the Brownlow medallist (since 2010 only twice has that year's medallist placed outside of the top three rankings).


West Coast are one of just two clubs (the other being Richmond) to have 5 players ranked inside the top 50 and is the only club in the competition with 4 players inside the top 30.

Naitanui at 14th is just the second time a ruckman has placed inside the top 20 since this system's commencement in 2005 - the other occasion being Sandilands in 2010.

The expectations for the best six from the club after last year's trade period were not unfounded - they ranked clearly ahead of all other clubs:


Club midfield rankings comparison: Top 6 players, post trade period 2019 and post season 2020. Note West Coast is a standout #1 here, ahead of Richmond, who improved significantly. GWS fell a staggering 14 places from 2nd to 16th.


Yet, for all of the strength of the above, the club ranked 15th in the competition for both contested possessions and metres gained per game in 2020.

It is the same story again as the previous year, a lack of support for that top tier of players.


Here is the list of club midfield rankings for the 2020 season:


West Coast Eagles midfield rankings 2020: note the improvement from Naitanui and the quality falling off a cliff beyond Gaff. Alarmingly, Redden has now dropped 78 places over the past two seasons.

A complete lack of assistance for that elite bracket. The story of the season is when members of that group were not available for decisive matches, the club had no-one to call upon and cover their loss.

Indeed, when we look beyond the best six ranked players the club is without question the worst in this area when compared to the rest of the competition:


Competition midfield rankings 2020: note that 3 of the 4 Preliminary finalists occupy the highest positions for players ranked 7-12 and 13-20, whereas West Coast come in at a miserable 17th and 18th.


The 2020 season, despite all of its novelties and upheavals, ended up being a repeat of 2019.

The quality of first choice midfield was the best of any, but the supporting cast were woefully inadequate.

Aside from the procurement of T.Kelly, nothing was done to improve this gaping deficiency and perhaps it should then not come as any surprise that the season delivered a similar result.


The club is not in need of big name targets for its improvement. What needs to take place is the acquisition of a number of B and C grade players who are capable of facilitating a role and elevate that 7-12 group to improve the squad overall.

Whether it occurs at the trade table or through mature-aged draftee selections that can provide immediate contribution, if the club fails to address this area then 2021 is likely to go down the same worn path of underachievement as 2019 and 2020.


Further notes:

• refer to the OP for the method of ranking calculation.
• this method is far from perfect, but allows an "apples-for-apples" comparison with previous seasons going back to 2005.
• There is a more comprehensive ranking system that covers other positions in addition to midfielders available within the Squad Selection & Ratings resource.

 

[Dylan82]

I have neglected this thread so far this year, so time for some retrospective updating.


Here is the outcome of the 2020 trade period on competition midfields:



The fire-sale of Treloar from Collingwood to the Bulldogs being the only exchange of note.

As a result, the Bulldogs entered the season with a midfield unit that was a daunting prospect in both quality and depth.


The midfield of West Coast remained imposing - however that would only be true if it could get out on the ground.

An injury-riddled preseason was set to continue into the 2021 fixture, with midfield output suffering accordingly.

 

[Dylan82]

At the halfway point, here is how things are currently looking in 2021.

After completion of Round 12 the top 50 under this rating are as follows:


Top 50 players (minimum 3 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.


No Shuey or Yeo to be found - injuries have cruelled them.

Yet the club still retains three representatives inside the top 50 in Kelly, Naitanui and Sheed.


Indeed, other than injuries, the story for the club so far this season in this respect is the improvement of players from the supporting group.


With Shuey and Yeo absent, the next tier has improved to help carry the load.


That improvement however is still not enough to prevent a significant slide in the club's overall midfield fortunes during the first half of the season.


Note that the club is worst in the competition for beyond the 6th ranked midfielder.


Considering the scale of the injury crisis that the club has endured (missing entirely two players from last years' top 25), it has performed well under the circumstances. With the exception of perhaps only the Bulldogs, any other team in the competition handed the same situation would have been torn apart.

With the prospect of a full complement available during the second half of the season, the midfield of West Coast will raise to another level and impose itself upon the competition once again.

The key question will be if the improvement that has been seen from the supporting group this season will continue once the stars are all available and playing - if it does then the club will be exceptionally hard to beat regardless of venue.

 

[Dylan82]

Season 2021 is done.

Here are the top 50 players for the 2021 season according to this means of ranking:


Top 50 midfield rankings 2021 (minimum 5 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.
Note O.Wines in 6th position becomes just the third occurrence since 2010 of the Brownlow medallist not finishing within the top three rankings.


West Coast are the only club in the competition to have five players ranked inside the top 50.

Once again, the expectations for the best six from the club were not unfounded - they ranked clearly ahead of all other clubs:


Club midfield rankings comparison: Top 6 players, post trade period 2020 and post season 2021. Note West Coast is, as last year, a standout #1 here, ahead of Brisbane and the two Grand Finalists. A combination of organic youth development and D.Mundy refusing to acknowledge his age saw Fremantle make the biggest gains this season; whereas an injury-plagued year saw Richmond go into freefall.


But as we know all too well, despite the strength of the above, the club ranked 14th in the competition for contested possessions and second-last (only ahead of Collingwood) for metres gained per game in 2021.

It is the same story yet again as the previous two years, a lack of support for that top tier of players.


Here is the list of club midfield rankings for the 2021 season:


West Coast Eagles midfield rankings 2021: note the quality falling off a cliff beyond Gaff and Redden.
It should also be noted that with the exceptions of Yeo, Shuey and Naitanui every player in the above list declined after the mid-season bye.


The same complete lack of assistance to that elite bracket. So when players from that top level under-performed during the second half of the season there was no-one else who was capable of stepping in and stepping up to improve the team. That unfortunately is the story of the 2021 season for West Coast.


Indeed, when we look beyond the best six ranked players the club continues to fail in this area when compared to the rest of the competition:


Competition midfield rankings 2021: note that only North Melbourne and Adelaide rank below West Coast for players ranked 7-20.


The 2021 season was a repeat of the failings observed in 2019 and 2020.

When all available and fit, the quality of first choice midfield was the best of any, but it never got going (not once during 2021 did West Coast feature a match where each of Yeo, Kelly, Shuey, Sheed, Gaff and Redden were able to complete 70% time on ground in the same game) and the supporting cast were woefully inadequate.


The club still appears confident that this squad has another year of contention within it. However the glaring deficiency in its supporting depth is unlikely to be addressed in just one offseason unless the club somehow manages one of the greatest draft hands of all time or fringe players suddenly develop in ways that haven't been seen over the past three years.

It leaves the fortunes of the club in 2022 resting heavily upon the conditioning team and ensuring that the second-oldest list in the competition can defy the odds and stay injury-free throughout the season.

If those injuries should occur then the club is looking down the barrel of another year of disappointment and underachievement.



Further notes:

• refer to the OP for the method of ranking calculation.
• this method is far from perfect, but allows an "apples-for-apples" comparison with previous seasons going back to 2005.
• There is a more comprehensive ranking system that covers other positions in addition to midfielders available within the Squad Selection & Ratings resource.

 

[Dylan82]

Time to boot this back up.


The 2021 post-season resulted in little change, the only exchanges of note being Dunstan leaving St Kilda to add further strength to premiers Melbourne, and Cerra trading from Fremantle to join Carlton.



Going into 2022, the West Coast midfield among the strongest in the competition - on paper.

It was also the oldest with a significant history of recent injuries - getting the pieces fit and on the ground at the same time would be the difference between success and disaster.


Jump forward to now at the halfway point of the season, the top 50 under this rating system appears like this:



Top 50 players (minimum 3 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.


No Yeo, Sheed or Naitanui to be found above. Kelly inside the top 10 appears to be playing almost a lone hand - this doesn't augur well.


Oh dear.

This is the biggest drop in midfield performance recorded under this metric by a club within a single season. It also highlights elsewhere just how reliant the reigning premiers are upon the performance of a small group.


All of our worst held fears have come to pass. The aging midfield has been ravaged by persistent injuries which has prevented its primary components from playing together. Additionally, the rush to get players back prematurely has caused problems with conditioning which have further compounded the issues with injuries.

It means the composition of the midfield this year, particularly in its depth and support, has changed radically:


Our eyes have not been deceiving us - Gaff is playing more inside than any other midfielder on our list aside from Redden and Rioli. As for Redden, he currently rates as the second-most inside bound midfielder in the competition behind only R.Sloane of Adelaide.


Of most alarm with the table above however is that just one player within the top seven [West] is younger than 28. Five are over 30.

It suggests that the worst of this fall may still be yet to to come.


Looking across the competition, it is easy to see why the club finds itself rooted at the bottom of the ladder.


Note how a lack of midfield depth is likely to constrain Carlton and Gold Coast this year. Also, Sydney and Fremantle are putting together very healthy looking profiles in their developing squads.


That profile for the club looks horrible. The eventual returns of Yeo and Sheed during the second half of the season will obviously provide some benefit, but won't escape the fact that the era of success has ended at break-neck speed, with a full rebuild now required to be undertaken.


......
West Coast dropped the most of all clubs in terms of both midfield quality and depth. Note also the incredible growth that is occurring organically at Gold Coast.


The midfield has imploded this year as a result of age, injury, and a continued lack of development within the supporting tier.

That implosion has placed the club on course for the worst finish in its history. Unfortunately, all signs appear to suggest there will be no quick way out of this slump.



Further notes:

• refer to the OP for the method of ranking calculation.
• this method is far from perfect, but allows an "apples-for-apples" comparison with previous seasons going back to 2005.
• There is a more comprehensive ranking system that covers other positions in addition to midfielders available within the Squad Selection & Ratings resource.