AUD/USD Exchange

[BobbyMorri]

Very good point Eagle. The Dollar is raising because the US is falling, not the other way around. Our terms of trade isnt really effected by all of this. Had a quick look at the RBA website and though the TWI has gone up in the last couple of weeks, it really hasnt done much in the year(though it has gone up). I must admit though, i dont really follow the TWI much, so this small increase might actually be quite big. Obama will be happy for this depreciation of the US dollar, as it might simulate that giant economy of theirs.

 

[lewigie]

Loving online shopping atm.

 

[Malifice]

OK fellas (those in the know).

Im heading off on a Motorbike trip around the world in January for a few years, starting with 6 months in the USA.

Anyone prepared to forecast the going rate of the AUD with the USD in Jan 11?

Im getting anwhere from 1.10 at the optimistic scale and 98 cents at the pessimistic.

1.03 seems to be the median.

Anyone care to make an (informed) guess?

 

[r dub 19]

OK fellas (those in the know).

Im heading off on a Motorbike trip around the world in January for a few years, starting with 6 months in the USA.

Anyone prepared to forecast the going rate of the AUD with the USD in Jan 11?

Im getting anwhere from 1.10 at the optimistic scale and 98 cents at the pessimistic.

1.03 seems to be the median.

Anyone care to make an (informed) guess?

If the fed prints more us dollars and we get rate rises (which we should). I'd say $1.03-$1.07

 

[Fire]

OK fellas (those in the know).

Im heading off on a Motorbike trip around the world in January for a few years, starting with 6 months in the USA.

Anyone prepared to forecast the going rate of the AUD with the USD in Jan 11?

Im getting anwhere from 1.10 at the optimistic scale and 98 cents at the pessimistic.

1.03 seems to be the median.

Anyone care to make an (informed) guess?

Its more or less 98 now, so if thats the vibe you are getting, convert later.

 

[Malifice]

If the fed prints more us dollars and we get rate rises (which we should). I'd say $1.03-$1.07

That seems to be the general vibe from the research ive done.

Its more or less 98 now, so if thats the vibe you are getting, convert later.

Good point!

Cant see it dropping from where it is now in any major way, but it should rise.

Been planning this trip for three years, times it perfectly!

Thanks guys.

 

[bigburger]

Gotta love the prognostiocators:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101005-700621.html



Translation: "It might not go below 94, but if it does it might go lower than that or it might not."

Thats how chartist's always talk mate haha.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

So can anyone tell me if it's a wise investment to buy some USD now and sell later?
Assuming it will go down again say in the next 6-12 mths?

 

[r dub 19]

So can anyone tell me if it's a wise investment to buy some USD now and sell later?
Assuming it will go down again say in the next 6-12 mths?

Imo it will be a long long time before we see the aud under 90c.

 

[NitroFan]

Better than a chocolate starfish I guess

 

[bigburger]

So can anyone tell me if it's a wise investment to buy some USD now and sell later?
Assuming it will go down again say in the next 6-12 mths?

Shares are better. Much better. You'd earn bugger all from this imo.

 

[Malifice]

Shares are undoubtably the way to go.

Just make sure you set up a discretionary trust to protect yourself from CGT on sale first.

Speak to a lawyer. And an Accountant.

If you are investing more than @ 50 grand, youll make your money back on their fees in the first year from tax saved alone.

 

[DeanoT]

Shares are better. Much better. You'd earn bugger all from this imo.

Shares are undoubtably the way to go.

Just make sure you set up a discretionary trust to protect yourself from CGT on sale first.

Speak to a lawyer. And an Accountant.

If you are investing more than @ 50 grand, youll make your money back on their fees in the first year from tax saved alone.

The problem with shares is that they are all highly correlated to one another, and they do not offer leverage in any meaningful sense. If you are happy with index like returns, or you are un unsophisticated investor, then passively investing in shares is not a bad way to go.

Not sure what you mean Malifice by, "Just make sure you set up a discretionary trust to protect yourself from CGT on sale first". Eagle87 will be able to give a more correct statement than I, but as I understand it, a discretionary trust doesn't impact your liability for CGT upon sale.

As for suggesting you can't make money from currency/futures trading, I suggest you pick up a book called Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. Just because you can't do it, or haven't tried, doesn't mean others can't. I am not too disappointed with getting on at 0.82 AUD/USD.

As for the AUD, I notice that it has taken a fall in the last 24 hours. Apparently the RBA has hinted it won't raise interest rates on Melbourne Cup day, which has thrown the market into a spin.

EDIT - seems the Chinese raised rates last night, affecting the AUD. Interesting.

 

[bigburger]

not that i know how exactly they work, but a book by a former Goldman Sach top player said that its in bonds that they make the real coin.

What at 6% per annum.

Risk free but no thanks.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Bonds would be a little out of reach for the retail investor. Don't they start at like $500,000?

 

[DeanoT]

What at 6% per annum.

Risk free but no thanks.

You're confusing bond investing with bond trading. Plenty of bond traders make returns many multiples of the yield rate.

Bonds would be a little out of reach for the retail investor. Don't they start at like $500,000?

You can buy govt bonds from as little as $1K.

http://www.rba.gov.au/fin-services/bond-facility/

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

You can buy govt bonds from as little as $1K.

http://www.rba.gov.au/fin-services/bond-facility/

You learn something new every day.

With bond trading, I know the yield of a bond changes as interest rates change but surely there isn't much money in that? I mean, it's always relatively predictable how interest rates will move, isn't that built into the sale price?

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Imo it will be a long long time before we see the aud under 90c.

Hmmmm.

 

[r dub 19]

Hmmmm.

Not under is it?

 

[r dub 19]

It might go below it, or it might stay above it.


Bookmark this.

James?

 

[Eagle87]

Roaring up today ... 99.58 at present ...

 

[Leper]

Roaring up today ... 99.58 at present ...

Yep... but still struggling to head north of 30 Baht in "real" currency.

 

[Moo]

I agee with parity ...I'm getting paid out now because of it.

From a year ago .....pretty glad I cashed my chips in.

 

[Malifice]

Cmon Aussie.

I need it over 1USD by years end.

 

[red+black]

Interest rates up surprisingly. We are again at parity.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/dollar-jumps-through-parity-again-20101102-17ar8.html