Bailey rules out youth policy/bottoming out

[CaptainDavey]

Taken from the HUN and posted in the Natanui thread, deserved its own thread by the looks of it.

MELBOURNE coach Dean Bailey has ruled out considering a youth policy that would guarantee a high draft pick, stating he is out to build a winning culture.

As Essendon and West Coast look intent on bottoming out with a youth-led resurgence, Bailey said yesterday he was intent on building momentum.

"The first two games still represent a bit of a scar there and we just can't accept that," Bailey said.

"For us to develop the list, the best way is to get a winning culture and that is what we really need to do."

Love that last line from Bails, he's certainly bringing over that Port mentality to the Demons

 

[CowboyFromHell]

I like it. We still won't win many games but I'd rather us have a crack and build a mentality of HATING to lose than just accepting it and bottoming out for the sake of it. Thumbs WAY up Bialey.

 

[CaptainDavey]

My dear mother went to a conference in Adelaide and they had David Arnfield giving a motivational speech and he was explaining that at Port, the number 1 priority, the most paramount aspect of the club was winning. Everything else was a compromise. He said they wanted to develop the mentality that every game should be treated as a grand final, as though it were to be your last. Culture stands alone in importance.

To hear that sort of thing then to come here and see people rave about losing games just makes me ill. I'd love nothing more for our club to adopt such a mentality as Port has. It kinda seems a bit silly to think Melbourne would have such spirit...But here's hoping that we can get a bit of spirit in the club starting from last weeks sterling effort.

 

[richskee]

i want a flag in the next 5 years not one in 25

 

[davey_magik]

Exactly what I like to hear, that's the way Bails .

Wait for clowns like malodeez to disagree though.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Good to see Bails has got a set between his legs.

I don't want to join the sheep clubs like essendon trying to copying the hawthorn model, it took them a good 5+ years of drafting to do that and its definite pain for no guaranteed return.

Not only has the priority system changed since hawthorn used this model, there is only 1 full size draft as we now know it, so its likely essendon will get half way through their rebuilding phase then get F__ked up by GC and WS taking the low draft picks. If thats what they're doing then i hope they get nailed, it'll serve them right for coping out.

I'm happy if we considered trading players for low picks, like with johnstone, but i dont want it to comparimise our team being competitive. Draft picks remain important, but we need to have some pride which means winning as many games as possible with our best 22.

 

[Flowerpower]

Good to see Bails has got a set between his legs.

I don't want to join the sheep clubs like essendon trying to copying the hawthorn model, it took them a good 5+ years of drafting to do that and its definite pain for no guaranteed return.

Not only has the priority system changed since hawthorn used this model, there is only 1 full size draft as we now know it, so its likely essendon will get half way through their rebuilding phase then get F__ked up by GC and WS taking the low draft picks. If thats what they're doing then i hope they get nailed, it'll serve them right for coping out.

I'm happy if we considered trading players for low picks, like with johnstone, but i dont want it to comparimise our team being competitive. Draft picks remain important, but we need to have some pride which means winning as many games as possible with our best 22.

Unfortunately people, and I for one am all about a winning mentallity above all else, the current draft system does not allow for teams to be "up" for an extended period.

Clubs that bottom out and rebuild will take 5 years but get there.

Clubs that continue to hover around 9th (ie Richmond in previous years) have no chance to make it further.

Develop a winning culture, yes, but understand winning is now a product of the draft system..

Bring in free agency and then its another ballgame......!!!!!

 

[MicksterD]

I agree and disagree which is a product of the dumb arse draft system

The current draft system demands that you are either on top or on the bottom but the middle dwellers have to rely on having a great recruitment team on board or getting the best out of what they have.

Over the last 10 years Daniher really made the best of what he had i.e. the cattle on hand and his coaching ability. The result was that we didn't win a flag and we didn't get to many new young guns into the side because at the end of the day its the quality of the cattle that wins games.

The fact is that the cattle we currently have aren't good enough to win a premiership and therefore is it going to be detrimental to the long term success of the team if Bailey manages to lift the team to its maximum potential and have us sit back into the mid tier of the 16 teams again?

There is only one thing Id love more than the Dees winning games and thats the Dees winning a premiership and I think we need to add some quality top end players to our team in order to achieve that end.

Should we throw games? Definitely not. But is coming last this year such a bad thing? I don't think so.

 

[w00dy]

Unfortunately people, and I for one am all about a winning mentallity above all else, the current draft system does not allow for teams to be "up" for an extended period.

Clubs that bottom out and rebuild will take 5 years but get there.

Clubs that continue to hover around 9th (ie Richmond in previous years) have no chance to make it further.

Develop a winning culture, yes, but understand winning is now a product of the draft system..

Bring in free agency and then its another ballgame......!!!!!

i disagree...

you say you have to bottom out? when did geelong bottom out?

in the last 10 years geelong have finished:

1998: 12th
1999: 11th
2000: 5th
2001: 12th
2002: 9th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 6th
2006: 10th
2007: 1st

not one bottom 4 finish in the last 10 years... this is proof you don't have to bottom out to build a successful list... st. kilda bottomed out, got heaps of high draft picks, and look what they've acomplished...

i like this approach from bailey, the key is to draft well, not necessarily to get the high picks...

 

[MicksterD]

i disagree...

you say you have to bottom out? when did geelong bottom out?

in the last 10 years geelong have finished:

1998: 12th
1999: 11th
2000: 5th
2001: 12th
2002: 9th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 6th
2006: 10th
2007: 1st

not one bottom 4 finish in the last 10 years... this is proof you don't have to bottom out to build a successful list... st. kilda bottomed out, got heaps of high draft picks, and look what they've acomplished...

i like this approach from bailey, the key is to draft well, not necessarily to get the high picks...

Thats a great point Woody but Geelong is probably the exception to the rule in that they managed to draft well when the odds were against them. No-one is saying that its impossible to do well after being in the middle of the pack, its just much more difficult and the majority of teams don't do well i.e. from memory the Tiges finished 9th more than anyone else and look where they are now...still just below middle!

 

[The Crows Truth]

Thats a great point Woody but Geelong is probably the exception to the rule in that they managed to draft well when the odds were against them. No-one is saying that its impossible to do well after being in the middle of the pack, its just much more difficult and the majority of teams don't do well i.e. from memory the Tiges finished 9th more than anyone else and look where they are now...still just below middle!

cant agree mate. from a crows perspective we have only finished out of the top 8 three times in the last 11 years. and we dont look like bottoming out anytime soon.

imo its all about building the winning culture and having the resources to recruit and develop the young talent. no team has yet won a flag from bottoming out (st kilda has failed, tigers and most probably bullies dont look likely in coming yrs either. hawks are obviously a big chance though).

a few examples of players the crows have drafted AFTER pick 40 (including pre-season and rookie drafts):

bock, rutten, hentschel, johncock, knights, doughty, griffin, mc gregor, porplyzia, mc kay, maric - even goodwin and edwards (but that was over 10 yrs ago)

now those players above are all very solid or better AFL players and none were high draft picks.....

dont rely on bottoming out. but you will need the proper resources and that is obviously another whole issue

cheers

 

[carntheroos4eva]

I reckon that he should play the kids. If he doesn't his team will be the winners of the wooden spoon. Half the list are over the age of 30. The other half are just out of form.
It is a shame that he's inherited an aging list.

 

[bomba4eva]

i disagree...

you say you have to bottom out? when did geelong bottom out?

in the last 10 years geelong have finished:

1998: 12th
1999: 11th
2000: 5th
2001: 12th
2002: 9th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 6th
2006: 10th
2007: 1st

not one bottom 4 finish in the last 10 years... this is proof you don't have to bottom out to build a successful list... st. kilda bottomed out, got heaps of high draft picks, and look what they've acomplished...

i like this approach from bailey, the key is to draft well, not necessarily to get the high picks...

Geelong got extraordinarily lucky with the father son picks though, and that cannot be disuputed. They are the exception to the rule.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Thats a great point Woody but Geelong is probably the exception to the rule in that they managed to draft well when the odds were against them. No-one is saying that its impossible to do well after being in the middle of the pack, its just much more difficult and the majority of teams don't do well i.e. from memory the Tiges finished 9th more than anyone else and look where they are now...still just below middle!

Richmond also have some of the worst drafting history going around of late, second only to freo.

Hawthorn had 2 years out of finals, scrapped a heap of players then finished 15th, 14th & 11th, before showing something last year.

Geelong aren't exactly an exception. West Coast 5th in '99, next 2 years at 13th & 14th(bad years but hardly bottoming out), finals every year since then, grand final '05, premiership '06. Port 7th '99, 14th 2000, 3rd 2001, 1st for the next 3 years & flag 2004.

There's no requirement that says you have to finish down the bottom for more then a year or 2 to successfully rebuild. Last year we were down, this year we'll be down. There's no reason why we can't be on the up next year and a real challenger & top 4 by 2011.

Of our best 22, white & neitz will go soon. Juniors not far behind them. Bruce & whelan only have a few years left. Green is only 27 this year so could have 5 or 6 years left in him yet. Thats a grand total of 5 (white, neitz, junior, bruce & whelan) who are too old for our next flag campaign.

We dont really have that much to clean out, so with some good drafting this year i think there's no reason for us not to win 10 or more games next year.

I'll be disappointed if we don't make finals 2010.

 

[CaptainDavey]

Geelong got extraordinarily lucky with the father son picks though, and that cannot be disuputed. They are the exception to the rule.

They have two elite players from the F/S pick. Ablett and Scarlett.

Blake isn't that good a ruckman, Hawkins is still young and is yet to dominate games and Nablett is shit.

As mentioned in another thread, some of their best players are local boys, I think that is a determining factor as well

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Geelong got extraordinarily lucky with the father son picks though, and that cannot be disuputed. They are the exception to the rule.

Thats crap & i'm sick of people bitching about it. They've got 2 players great players out of it, Gablett & Scarlett. They're both unbelievable players, but if melbourne or essendon had them it doesnt mean either side would've won the premiership last year.

 

[liz]

Thats a great point Woody but Geelong is probably the exception to the rule in that they managed to draft well when the odds were against them. No-one is saying that its impossible to do well after being in the middle of the pack, its just much more difficult and the majority of teams don't do well i.e. from memory the Tiges finished 9th more than anyone else and look where they are now...still just below middle!

cant agree mate. from a crows perspective we have only finished out of the top 8 three times in the last 11 years. and we dont look like bottoming out anytime soon.

You can add Sydney as another team that has managed to stay consistently competitive for the past decade and a bit and has snared a premiership along the way and came as close to another as you can without actually winning it. The Swans' lowest finish in the past decade was 12th in 2002, and they've made the finals 10 years out of the past 12. And like Adelaide, they have found very good players with lowish picks. And also like Adelaide they seem to be defying the prediction that they were due to drop down the ladder this year.

Good to very good players Sydney have found with draft picks 40+ include Brett Kirk, Adam Goodes, Ryan O'Keefe, Amon Buchanan, Nick Malceski, Tadhg Kennelly, Adam Schneider (now traded), Micky O (going back a bit now), Paul Bevan, plus youngsters still establishing themselves but looking good in Kieran Jack and Ed Barlow.

You don't need high draft picks to find quality players, though clearly a smattering of first round picks helps.

 

[Dez!]

i want a flag in the next 5 years not one in 25

And I want you to go play in traffic, preferably when the lights are green and cars are moving.

 

[Supermercado]

I'll take 25 if it's guaranteed. Can do something more useful until 2033.

 

[davey_magik]

For the people who want us to tank, name a side who bottomed out and picked players that won them a flag.

 

[Super-Chief]

This is an interesting topic.

I agree that high picks don't necessarily help. Just look at the number of high picks St Kilda and Carlton have had over the past 10 years. Even our high picks have rarely turned out to be as good as we hoped - Molan a few years ago didn't play a game (I think) and even Col and Brock haven't provided what we hoped.

Hawthorn appear to have done well from the draft but if somebody else had taken Hodge and Franklin they might still be struggling.

The fact is that you need a few top players, the right attitude and a "chemistry" that makes the team click and results in high confidence. If you have these, almost any new player will look good in your side. The Cats had it last year and the Hawks have it this year. The Eagles had it but have lost it.

I like Bailey's philosophy as discussed in this thread, but, if we fail to win many games, I will hope like hell that we get a high draft pick who turns into a champion.

 

[master bate]

Look at the Hawthorn model, they already had Hodge just as we have McLean, they then got the two big forwards but if you take out Roughead and keep Franklin they wouldn't be too much worse, and Ellis and other high picks like Thorpe look great for the future but aren't doing heaps now compared to Rioli at pick 12 (i think) is already playing great footy.

What I'm saying is that it isn't high draft picks that rocket you up the ladder it is cleaning out the list, getting a good group of young players in and letting them develop together. I see no reason why the blokes 24-25 and under can't make the core of a good side, with this year being a down year but steadily improving in the next few. If Bailey can get the best out of these players (and it might take a couple of years and there's some gaps there) then I think it's a finals performing team. I've tried to use the kids who have proven themselves to be up to AFL standard but have thrown a few who I'm not quite 100% on yet (Garland, Frawley, Newton etc) then again I've left a few out who might have a good future (Maric, Grimes, Martin) and left out some of the older players who might have a few good years left (Green, Bruce, Robbo etc).

FB: Garland Frawley Bell
HB:Bartram Rivers Petterd
C: Morton McLean Dunn
HF: Sylvia Miller Bate
FF: Davey Newton Wonaeamirri
Foll: PJ Jones Moloney
Int:........

 

[StingaArmstrong]

Given my current boredom i thought i'd do some stats.

Number of players drafted 1-10 between 1997-2006 to play in premierships = 15
Number of players drafted 50 + between 1997-2006 to play in premierships = 15

Shows that low draft picks don't necessarily bring premiership players. Also note that of the top 10 draft picks only 2 have won brownlow medals.

DB's philosophy of developing a winning culture is EXACTLY what Melbourne needs. Expect to win, not hope to win. If you look at the premiership teams of recent times - Geelong, WCE, Sydney, Port, Brisbane, Essendon, all had winning cultures and players that were prepared to die for each other.

 

[Big Red is back]

i disagree...

you say you have to bottom out? when did geelong bottom out?

in the last 10 years geelong have finished:

1998: 12th
1999: 11th
2000: 5th
2001: 12th
2002: 9th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 6th
2006: 10th
2007: 1st

not one bottom 4 finish in the last 10 years... this is proof you don't have to bottom out to build a successful list... st. kilda bottomed out, got heaps of high draft picks, and look what they've acomplished...

i like this approach from bailey, the key is to draft well, not necessarily to get the high picks...

Geelong were lucky they had a huge number of father son picks which supplemented low finishes of 11th and 12th

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Geelong were lucky they had a huge number of father son picks which supplemented low finishes of 11th and 12th

Huge? I can see only G Ablett and Scarlett having an impact. Hawkins is still too young, N Ablett is gawn and Blake is average at best. It's a shit argument.