Preview Battle for last finals spots ... how it shapes up

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Ladder as of Round 17. I have included the Eagles because Essendon are thought of as vulnerable and they are equal with them. I have included the Lions as Richmond are still a slight chance and the they are equal with them.




The way I see it, 13 wins gets you in. 12 and a decent percentage gives you a good chance. Remember, if we include these team, there are 4 spots up for grabs and 9 teams in the running.

West Coast - 44
Brisbane (H)
Fremantle
Geelong (H)
Port (A)
Collingwood (H)
Hawthorn (A)

Starting to feel the affects of injuries. Will they continue to struggle or find their better form? Brisbane and Port should be wins regardless and will get them their 13 wins. Best we hope they continue on and beat Fremantle and Geelong as well.

Verdict - West Coast to make the 8

Essendon - 44
Hawthorn
Adelaide (A)
North
Carlton
Richmond
Collingwood

On a downward slope but they found something after a slide last year to make the finals and have the players to do so. Every game is potentially tough for the Bombers. Vital for Carlton to win this one and hoping the Hawks, Crows and Pies have no lapses. Anything could happen in the North and Richmond games. Only need 2 wins and their form is hard to predict.

Verdict - In the box seat but jury remains out

Geelong - 40
Adelaide (H)
Hawthorn
West Coast (A)
St Kilda
Bulldogs (SS)
Sydney (SS)

One gimme game and a tough one to end albeit at Skilled. After beating Essendon last week, I can see the Cats getting over the Crows on the suburban ground. Might come down to Saints and Swans games to get them in. Key game here for us is the Saints game. We will know by then how each team is travelling and who we need to win.

Verdict - still a lot of work to do so jury remains out

North - 36
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Essendon
Collingwood
Fremantle (H)
GWS (A)

Easy draw this year for the Roos and they have 3 gimmes and a favouritism game vs Freo in Melbourne. That will get them their 13 wins. Best we concede a spot in the 8 to the Roos and hope they beat the Bombers and Dockers.

Verdict - North to make the 8

Fremantle - 36
Port (A)
West Coast
Adelaide (A)
Richmond (H)
North (A)
Melbourne (H)

Will find it tough against North in Melbourne and Adelaide in Adelaide. Need the other 4. Melbourne, Richmond and Port away are well within their reach. May very well come down to the derby against a weakened Eagles. Pray for an Eagles win here.

St Kilda - 32
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Melbourne
Geelong
GWS
Carlton

Need 5 but percentage is healthy for their position. Will start favourites against 4 including Carlton. Have 3 absolute gimme games. Carlton will probably have to beat them to get in so hopefully Collingwood beat them and then the Saints v Cats result will suit us either way.

Verdict - have some easier games and are not without chances in the other 3. Strong claims.

Carlton - 32
Richmond
Sydney (H)
Brisbane (H)
Essendon
Gold Coast (A)
St Kilda

Not a daunting draw at the start of the season and we have our chances if our intensity is up. However managing this Jeckyll and Hyde team's attitude and injuries are not easy. Crucial that we win against Richmond and Brisbane at least and we come home in the last 3 on the back of Judd's return and possibly others. We are at our weakest right now though so the next two games are danger games.

Verdict - outside chance at best

Richmond - 28
Carlton
Brisbane (A)
Bulldogs
Fremantle (A)
Essendon
Port (H)

Decent draw. Nobody at the top end of the ladder aside from a misfiring Bombers, 3 top 8 rivals and 2 gimme games. Need to win them all but will be in them all.

Verdict - very slim chance but not impossible

Brisbane - 28
West Coast (A)
Richmond (H)
Carlton (A)
Adelaide (H)
Port (A)
Bulldogs (H)

Will beat Dogs, have a show at home vs Tigers, have a chance away vs Port and a chance away against a weakened Blues. Have about the same chance vs a misfiring Eagles at Subi and a soaring Crows at the Gabba .... very slim.

Verdict - Absolute hail mary required in the last second of play

 

[HARKER]

Call me bad, but I'm pretty much resigned to us not making the eight so if we do it will be an absolute highlight.
In a way I was hoping for Richmond to win on Sunday for us to secure a better draft pick.

Is there a ban forthcoming?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Harks, thread had to be made whilst we are still a chance. The North game with Judd's suspension and further early injuries, pretty much killed off any notion I had about our luck turning around.

I know we have no injuries as such from the Dogs game, but given what has transpired this year, I fully expect 3 players to be late changes next week after slipping on the same banana peel in the players race.

 

[HARKER]

Yes, we are a chance but I guess I've just conditioned myself to not get disappointed.
Oddly enough, I had a lot of fun watching Saturday's match under those conditions, expecting to lose and just looking out for the kids.

I want us to beat every team we play from here on in, but if we don't I'll have a pretty good idea why that may be.
Even if we did get all the pieces together, we just haven't given them enough time to gel.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Lets just worry about this week.

 

[rampar]

personally I only see an additional 2 wins for the season. Play the kids, book the surgeries... the year is done.

 

[Big Sim]

Stranger things have happened but its not far off the aeronautical swine category. I'm still a believer but I reckon Peter Slipper is just a bit misunderstood and that Juddy has an Evil Twin under his bed so you get the drift.

I will settle for victories vs Essendon and Richmond as a high note end to the season. Anything more is gravy.

 

[Dramoth]

I see us with potentially 4 wins and one longshot. It all comes down to bodies in the end... Do we get the players back in time to make a difference or will we be playing the same patched up side for 3-4 weeks.

If we lose 2 games by a large margin and our percentage takes a big knock, then the best we can hope for is ninth place.

 

[basil00]

8th spot will be between, Norf, Saints and Dockers. I still think that the Saints will get in. Just hope we push and show some heart between now and the end of the season. I reckon will finish 10-12th.

 

[The Coach]

Harks, thread had to be made whilst we are still a chance. The North game with Judd's suspension and further early injuries, pretty much killed off any notion I had about our luck turning around.

I know we have no injuries as such from the Dogs game, but given what has transpired this year, I fully expect 3 players to be late changes next week after slipping on the same banana peel in the players race.

Good OP and clearly a thread of interest to most but after watching the Tigers closely yesterday, Stig is on the money (which I know you know ODN )

Lets just worry about this week.

 

[Juddys_navy_blues]

No your not bad Harks, im thinking the exact same..

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

personally I only see an additional 2 wins for the season. Play the kids, book the surgeries... the year is done.

This.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Put it this way. For us to make finals, we would have gathered a fair bit of momentum and entered September on the back of a winning streak and a possible knock out final against Collingwood.

We would not be your run of the mill 8th placed team. All except Laidler and Hampson are expected to come back should our season be alive. McInnes and Casboult would be decent enough replacements for those guys, and Watson has come on gangbusters since early in the season when we were flag favourites. If we stay alive, we get them all back and then how far we goes comes down to what is going on between the ears. It's not talent with us, it's mental, convinced of it.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I just did one of those ladder predictor and I had us finishing 13th. Bad I know!

I only have us beating the Suns. Maybe I am thinking about booking the surgeries in and resting the players, but I so know this is wrong. Bit like you Harks...

The Tigers should bounce back with the players they have compared to ours this Saturday.
Sydney should beat us if they are really a top side.
I even think that Brisbane are a chance against us in Melb with Judd still out. Think its at Etihad
Essendon just, though I think they aren't really that good and an upset wouldn't suprise me.
Should beat the Suns up there. Let's not be another Richmond.
And the Saints have the wood over us and I think we will be out of the race by then and them still a chance.

They are all winable games really, but I think we are going to struggle.

2013 We will smash them all I tell you!!!

 

[The_Wookie]

damnit ODN this was going to be the thread I made tonight lol

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Brisbane weren't convincing against the Suns. They do have some good games but maybe they are winding down.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

damnit ODN this was going to be the thread I made tonight lol

Oh and I bet yours would have been filled with pictures and video analysis too. My apologies.

Maybe we should collaborate on something next time?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Brisbane weren't convincing against the Suns. They do have some good games but maybe they are winding down.

I do hope so. It would be disasterous them coming to Melbourne and beating us. I would hate to see the headlines that night.

 

[The_Wookie]

Oh and I bet yours would have been filled with pictures and video analysis too. My apologies.

Maybe we should collaborate on something next time?

Haha i think ill start pming the stuff im thinking of doing in advance.

 

[Kramer1]

I maintian a flickering interest in the finals for no other reason than sliding into eight may see us shape up against Collingwood in the first week of finals. Beating the Pies in a final could erase a lot of the indifference I am currently feeling for season 2012.

 

[Aphrodite]

I maintian a flickering interest in the finals for no other reason than sliding into eight may see us shape up against Collingwood in the first week of finals. Beating the Pies in a final could erase a lot of the indifference I am currently feeling for season 2012.

I like your thinking there Kramer but what my concern is if we did finish 8th and West Coast finish 5th, we would have to travel to W.A.

 

[Kramer1]

I like your thinking there Kramer but what my concern is if we did finish 8th and West Coast finish 5th, we would have to travel to W.A.

After last year and a close run result this year Patersons Stadium shouldn't hold too much fear for us...we could be a very dangerous floater if we snuck into eigth with a relatively healthy list.

 

[Claypigeon]

My ladder predictor results haven't changed much since the last few times I've done it. ..

Possibly being harsh on the Dons as I have us beating them, so they could slot in above Freo and knock Saints out. .. but we'll have judd back then and could be ready to crack into them. .. Carrots owes them one too. ..

 

[Dramoth]

My ladder predictor results haven't changed much since the last few times I've done it. ..

Possibly being harsh on the Dons as I have us beating them, so they could slot in above Freo and knock Saints out. .. but we'll have judd back then and could be ready to crack into them. .. Carrots owes them one too. ..

I think that the all new Bash Brothers (Robbo and Bell) should line up Lonergan in a legal, but lethal hit and take him out of the game...

And Carrots can come wandering over and give him the woooooo in his face as they are taking him off the ground

 

[koshari]

My ladder predictor results haven't changed much since the last few times I've done it. ..

Possibly being harsh on the Dons as I have us beating them, so they could slot in above Freo and knock Saints out. .. but we'll have judd back then and could be ready to crack into them. .. Carrots owes them one too. ..

to
not mention taking geelong a little lightly.