Bigman’s Training Reports

[Scorpus]

Nah you are right as always mate.

Our form was shit in the last month. Only won 4 games and knocked off two preliminary finalist teams.


You think we were in a form slump when we knocked off Collingwood and Hawthorn?

Yes.

We lost the Hawthorn, Collingwood and North games on xScore - so with league average goal kicking from both sides we would have lost those matches. We got lucky to win them all - and we certainly had some very poor patches in all of those games.

Great wins that set us up for finishing 1st, not the best performances from a form perspective

Our form was much better after the bye from the Richmond win through to the Port smashing

And it's quite clear the end of season form carried directly into finals - especially the poor starts against Hawthorn and Collingwood in the H&A were very similar to the Hawthorn final

 

[AFC979810]

Did you watch the games

Sure did.

Also watched a lot of other teams playing during the season. Winning in the AFL is tough. Upsets happen.

The premiers drew with North, Saints beat Geelong, Melbourne beat Brisbane at the Gabba in the greatest comeback ever.

How anyone can look at our last month when we beat two preliminary finalists and say we were in a form slump is crazy.

 

[Scorpus]

How anyone can look at our last month when we beat two preliminary finalists and say we were in a form slump is crazy.

You seem to think a team can't win in a form slump. Of course you can.

 

[AFC979810]

Yes.

We lost the Hawthorn, Collingwood and North games on xScore - so with league average goal kicking from both sides we would have lost those matches. We got lucky to win them all - and we certainly had some very poor patches in all of those games.

Great wins that set us up for finishing 1st, not the best performances from a form perspective

Our form was much better after the bye from the Richmond win through to the Port smashing

And it's quite clear the end of season form carried directly into finals - especially the poor starts against Hawthorn and Collingwood in the H&A were very similar to the Hawthorn final

Xscore. You lost me at Score.

 

[AFC979810]

You seem to think a team can't win in a form slump. Of course you can.

I am arguing that our form wasn't a reason for us losing the 2 finals. Are you agreeing with me?

 

[Scorpus]

I am arguing that our form wasn't a reason for us losing the 2 finals. Are you agreeing with me?

I wouldn't say it was the main reason, but it was a contributing factor

I think the main reason was Nicks' incompetence

 

[Golumless]

We have Rankine in that side against Collingwood and non of the bullshit and we win that game IMO.

That's quite possible, seeing how much of a spark plug Rankine can be for this unit. Especially as Rachele was out injured at this point, and that gun small forwards is one of those things that can change the entire complexion of a football side.

Whilst I'm very critical of our coaching in the Hawthorn game, you could certainly make a case that what does this side in is the lack of genuine star power. After all, no matter what is sprouted about coaching/structure/depth, finals are won/lost by your star players (or lack thereof). Having two in the same sector ripped out of the lineup in the lead up (and one fade out, though I'm not critical of that) on top of the Achillies heel that was our inside midfield group may have made it a bridge too far.

It was a pretty sharp decline. Just two weeks prior to the horrible performance against West Coast, we beat Port Adelaide by a record margin, and smashed Gold Coast prior to that

Directly after playing Port we came out and were five goals down in the first quarter to Hawthorn

Obviously there were many contributing factors but I think in the space of a few weeks Nicks deliberately tried to tighten up our contest work and get into a defensive "grindset" that would win finals. I don't think he ever truly trusted the attacking plan that saw us win big over Port and GC. This backfired and as we went defensive we also began struggling all over the ground including at contests. The fact we looked absolutely clueless for three quarters against West Coast is a big tell, our players didn't seem able to execute the plan against the worst side in the league.

Combine Nicks' finals gameplan with the Rankine saga, supposed sickness and injuries to key players and the 'first time in finals' thing and we get our straight sets disaster

Advanced stats indicate you've got this backwards. For all the talk of this "offensive gameplan" against GC and Port, we were more successful in moving the ball out of our D50 (and defensive half) in both the Collingwood and Hawks finals then we were against either of those teams and our general average in that stretch (indicating we moved away from the defensive grinding style we were employing mid-year). However, I'm sceptical of there being any genuine argument in that space about changes in our ball movement having a genunie influence on our results (good or bad), mainly because there were red flags in a few of our wins against other top 8 teams (and Port) that we had an inside group that can be beaten up for 10-15 minute stretches by good units. Lo-and-behold, that appears in both matches and we lose both matches from those periods (the start of Q3 against Collingwood, and the Q1 burst from the Hawks causes our coaching group to panic).

If there is a game that causes our coaching group to making changes, it's the win against Collingwood where our ball movement stats were diabolically bad (11.5 D50 to F50, 21.2 Def half to Fwd half chains), alongside the loss of Rankine (and I do think the subsequent tick up in ball movement is, ironically, due to this). To the point it probably is a contender for one of the worst performances of any club throughout the year in regards to ball movement, and we were trending that way for a while (but unlike West Coast which was similar, this is the one where you can't question workrate). We do put up one of our most prolific ball movement performances against North the week after, and the quarter final has a serious uptick compared to round 23. Whereas, until then, we were decently consistent in how effective we were at getting the ball out of our D50/defensive half (which is to say, we were consistently bad) and how well we did from defensive half to forward half. A lot of our offensive success really did just hinge on how effective we were at generating shots at goal once we broke through (+ our ability to convert goal opportunities), and in that sense, I do think AFC979810 is on the mony that the Rankine/Rachele loss was a potential death blow of sorts factored alongside our inside midfield weakeness. For all I want to talk about in the Collingwood game, 50 inside 50s for 19 shots with a team that usually hovers just above 50% is a lot of potentially lost momentum.

Equally, I think taking anything out of that West Coast game outside of its one of those odd performances sports throws up where a team has got complacent from a long winning streak, sandwitched between big games, and is against a trash team is disingenious. The US term of "trap games" is worth remembering here, especially on the back of Adelaide beating Collingwood the week after (albiet riding our luck with it, though we deserved that luck by virtue of considerably out working Collingwood). From watching that game, a lot of it did come off as a group who couldn't get up for that game, especially noting that we were below average in just about every workrate related stat compared to our typical season differential (not exactly a good spot to be with a team who is reliant on workrate).

 

[daniel_4tw]

I really didn’t mean to derail the best thread on this board. Sorry!

 

[AFC979810]

I really didn’t mean to derail the best thread on this board. Sorry!

Daaaamn Daniel - back at it again with a ruined thread.

 

[Samcro24]

You don’t go 18-5 due an easy draw.

2 of our losses really should have been wins (GC and Hawks away).

We failed in finals, big time, but the rewriting of history because the team ran out of steam is crazy.

It was a fantastic season and now the boys have proven they can take it to the best teams they can hopefully keep a bit in the tank and go a bit further next year.

I think our finals losses was on Nicks more than the players (and I’m a Nicks optimist). But some of those moves on game day was strange…

We went all out to win those games somewhat understandable having sucked for several years.

The run home looked challenging on paper. But the harder games were at home, easy ones away.

The likes of Collingwood and hawthorn leaving a bit in the tank for the real stuff.

We played those games as finals. Got the Ws. Then were found out a few weeks later.

One astute poster in particular called it fair way out and got howled down by a few. Hate to say he was right. Good looking bloke too, but that’s by the by.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I think you are looking for explanations after the fact. Finals are about the day.

Uh uh

This was debated at length in the back half of the season

You might recall that you were adamant that losing the centre square clearances didn't matter and conceding a huge number of Inside 50s didn't matter and our forwards being efficient with limited supply didn't matter.

It all didn't matter. We were still winning, right?

Those who thought it might lead to us being exposed in September were ridiculed.

The "just a bad couple of moments in September" line is one I fully expect to be pushed (and whole-heartedly believed) by the club but I thought they'd have had very few buyers outside the fabled four walls.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I'm not convinced the club believes the midfield is a weakness

We spent a lot of time chasing midfielders in the off-season