Prediction Blokes in the gun in 2021

[Marstermind]

Their agents have probably told them to hold off.

And that's fair enough. Whilst they may want to stay, the football dept was a total mess last year, and although steps have been made to fix it, you'd probably want to see what it looks like before committing. The club wants players to do the right thing by them, but the club also has to do the right thing for the players.

 

[Snake_Baker]

And that's fair enough. Whilst they may want to stay, the football dept was a total mess last year, and although steps have been made to fix it, you'd probably want to see what it looks like before committing. The club wants players to do the right thing by them, but the club also has to do the right thing for the players.

I reckon it's as simple as an expectation that their stocks will rise.

 

[Rod Stroker]

And that's fair enough. Whilst they may want to stay, the football dept was a total mess last year, and although steps have been made to fix it, you'd probably want to see what it looks like before committing. The club wants players to do the right thing by them, but the club also has to do the right thing for the players.

Didn't stop Corr + Young + Stephenson all from signing when we finished equal bottom, had no coach, several assistant roles unfilled, and a full forward on his way out.

 

[disco_cowboy]

Didn't stop Corr + Young + Stephenson all from signing when we finished equal bottom, had no coach, several assistant roles unfilled, and a full forward on his way out.

yeh but it was the end of the year at that point.

If LDU or Larkey wants to wait and see if they can get a decent offer at years end then good on em - means we will hopefully get a good year out both o them.

Also Corr/Stephenson got a good pay day. Young and Atu promised more opportunity.

 

[Gasometer]

Sugar
Needs a big one

 

[7577969923]

I reckon it's as simple as an expectation that their stocks will rise.

Yep. If LDU has the breakout year we hope he could add $200k per year to his next deal. Same for Larkey if shows he can be a 40 goal plus key forward.

 

[The Warlord]

Hope it clicks for Bonar but just don't see it happening.

 

[shintemaster]

Hope it clicks for Bonar but just don't see it happening.

I hope so too but I'm not convinced either - in a stronger team with less turnover we might be more inclined to hold onto younger players as a project but we're not in that position at the moment IMO. He needs to really step it up and find a place, hoping he can.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I hope so too but I'm not convinced either - in a stronger team with less turnover we might be more inclined to hold onto younger players as a project but we're not in that position at the moment IMO. He needs to really step it up and find a place, hoping he can.

I reckon he's an inside midfielder fighting for a spot in a list overflowing with inside midfielders.

 

[shintemaster]

I reckon he's an inside midfielder fighting for a spot in a list overflowing with inside midfielders.

Same. We don't need him and based on how we've recruited we're less likely to need him in a year or so than today. He's been workmanlike to date but we've not seen any real tricks - that might be mostly how we've played him but its on him to prove he can do more. I'd have Kyron moving into a mid role if needed before him and I think they're similar physically. He's got a bit of time, but we're not short of mids now and he's slower than most of what we've recruited. Best of luck to him though, things can change quickly, if he had the sort of level in him that Dumont pulled out he'd be a valuable asset.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Same. We don't need him and based on how we've recruited we're less likely to need him in a year or so than today. He's been workmanlike to date but we've not seen any real tricks - that might be mostly how we've played him but its on him to prove he can do more. I'd have Kyron moving into a mid role if needed before him and I think they're similar physically. He's got a bit of time, but we're not short of mids now and he's slower than most of what we've recruited. Best of luck to him though, things can change quickly, if he had the sort of level in him that Dumont pulled out he'd be a valuable asset.

Agree re-Kyron.

Midfielders are midfielders.

If they're not predominately playing in midfield rotations, then I can't see the point in playing them as defenders or forwards.

 

[The Warlord]

I hope so too but I'm not convinced either - in a stronger team with less turnover we might be more inclined to hold onto younger players as a project but we're not in that position at the moment IMO. He needs to really step it up and find a place, hoping he can.

The only real vacancy we have is for a dedicated tagger. He's well behind other blokes in every other role.

He's got the physical tools but I think lacks the game smarts to be a success there. Best taggers are SMART. Brady and Ben Jacobs were far from massive physical units but were great taggers through their nous.

 

[Shinboner1]

The only real vacancy we have is for a dedicated tagger. He's well behind other blokes in every other role.

He's got the physical tools but I think lacks the game smarts to be a success there. Best taggers are SMART. Brady and Ben Jacobs were far from massive physical units but were great taggers through their nous.

I hope hayden can fill this role.

 

[shintemaster]

The only real vacancy we have is for a dedicated tagger. He's well behind other blokes in every other role.

He's got the physical tools but I think lacks the game smarts to be a success there. Best taggers are SMART. Brady and Ben Jacobs were far from massive physical units but were great taggers through their nous.

You're right except I reckon Jacobs was quite the unit, not in a traditional way but his core, leg and trunk power was massive for his size.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Given that we're in a development phase , we have to see what the likes of Bonar, WW and KH are capable of before making calls on them. They're all talents. .

 

[koshari]

You're right except I reckon Jacobs was quite the unit, not in a traditional way but his core, leg and trunk power was massive for his size.

he actually had a pretty good tank as well.

 

[Merlin007]

Dumont's an FA, so unlikely to be traded you would think.

An RFA - if we got a good offer, we might be interested in the compo - the list management people will want currency to deal with again in 2021

 

[Tas]

Players I do not think will get renewed unless they have some kind of Herculean season:
Hall (30y 2m)
Campbell (29y 2m)

I think we will need another 1 or 2 young ruckmen and still a lot of question marks on Goldy's eventual replacement, I don't see Goldy getting an extension beyond 2022 so we are either going to poach a surplus ruckman if we look good everywhere else or are going to be looking at a few young options, Campbell isn't the man. I think we will probably looking for someone more mobile, with a good tank.

I would expect Hall to get phased out this year if our other half-forward/mids hold up physically. I don't think he will get another contract. His defensive side of his game is bound to annoy the urine out of the coach, it has every other coach he has played under.

Injury prone players that need to get on and stay on the park or could be in danger:
Tyson (27y7m)
W. Walker (21y 9m)
Garner (27y 0m)
Hayden (21y 7m)

I think all four are in strife if they do not have a solid year in terms of fitness and durability. You wouldn't want to be fishing for a new contract if you broke down physically again.

Players who might find their role in the club no longer exists:
Ziebell (29y 11m)
P. Walker (28y 2m)
Atley (28y 4m)
Dumont (25y 6m)

Most people who try and conjure up their best 18 invariably do not have these players either in the best 18 or in the position where they played their best football/where the club is likely to play them this year. This talk of playing Ziebell down back this year, Walker up forward, it has the real potential to be a career ending move when you are out of contract. I hope they can make it work.

Tarrant, McKay and Corr are the three big defenders, McDonald had a great year last year. Perez looked really promising. We brought in Young for more run out of the back line, that can't sound optimistic if you are Ziebell, Atley or Walker.

With us recruiting so many mids last year, you would expect a number of them to play a fair bit this year. We have also added Stephenson, Menadue, Tyson is back from the dead if a couple of these players click in the middle it can be a career killing move, like how Dal Santo pretty much ended Bastinac's career. New coach, a lot of new players, a lot of unknowns.

Old Age risk alone:
Tarrant (31y 9m) [2021]
Goldstein (32y 6m) [2022]
Cunnington (29y 6m) [2022]

This group is only a concern if they suffer a long-term injury, particularly in the second half of the season, if 2022 would be torpedoed then the club would likely prefer to have them retire early. Otherwise they are core players. Old age is a risk factor, given how long Cunners was out with his back problems last year, you don't want to cop an injury when you are older.

 

[shintemaster]

he actually had a pretty good tank as well.

He was an absolute machine, one of my favourites from the last decade as well. Such a pity - obviously for health reasons - but I honestly think we saw maybe 70% of his ceiling. Hope he's doing okay.

I think we will need another 1 or 2 young ruckmen and still a lot of question marks on Goldy's eventual replacement, I don't see Goldy getting an extension beyond 2022 so we are either going to poach a surplus ruckman if we look good everywhere else or are going to be looking at a few young options, Campbell isn't the man. I think we will probably looking for someone more mobile, with a good tank.

Ya serious Tas? Not saying it will definitely happen but based on last year's form and his injury history he could quite easily go on Harvey style for several more years if he's willing to take short extensions. I have no idea why we'd turf him unless his replacement is smashing it - which doesn't look likely at the moment. Even with all the focus on list refresh there's no reason whatsoever to throw out a ruckman in the top handful in the league unless he's cooked.

 

[Tas]

Ya serious Tas? Not saying it will definitely happen but based on last year's form and his injury history he could quite easily go on Harvey style for several more years if he's willing to take short extensions. I have no idea why we'd turf him unless his replacement is smashing it - which doesn't look likely at the moment. Even with all the focus on list refresh there's no reason whatsoever to throw out a ruckman in the top handful in the league unless he's cooked.

Based on his 2020 form he looked like he could go on forever, but so did Harvey two years before he was given the arse.

The assumption is players break down, have a lot more niggles as they get older. Could you have pictured Cunners missing pretty much the entire season with a back niggle two years ago?

Goldy is great, but he is going to be 34 by the time his contract expires, he may prove me wrong and go beyond that point in time but I think the safe bet is to assume players aren't playing beyond 34 years of age.

 

[shintemaster]

Based on his 2020 form he looked like he could go on forever, but so did Harvey two years before he was given the arse.

The assumption is players break down, have a lot more niggles as they get older. Could you have pictured Cunners missing pretty much the entire season with a back niggle two years ago?

Goldy is great, but he is going to be 34 by the time his contract expires, he may prove me wrong and go beyond that point in time but I think the safe bet is to assume players aren't playing beyond 34 years of age.

I think safe to plan for his phase out - but that's pretty far from him not getting an extension IMO. Cunners didn't miss a season with a back niggle - he had a significant injury to his back. I don't see anything attrition based about it personally.

All players age and all players get more niggles. It just struck me as odd to assume Goldy wouldn't be there at all - I think he is every chance to be there as it stands today. Injury and age can change things quickly but he's closer to his historical peak in 2020 than Harvey was 2 years from the end of his career IMO.

 

[7577969923]

Based on his 2020 form he looked like he could go on forever, but so did Harvey two years before he was given the arse.

The assumption is players break down, have a lot more niggles as they get older. Could you have pictured Cunners missing pretty much the entire season with a back niggle two years ago?

Goldy is great, but he is going to be 34 by the time his contract expires, he may prove me wrong and go beyond that point in time but I think the safe bet is to assume players aren't playing beyond 34 years of age.

Ruckmen seem to be the most likely players of any position to shift clubs. If Xerri doesn't make it then it is highly likely there will be a guy somewhere in the league that is good enough to play senior footy but not getting a game because he is stuck behind an established first ruck.

I would rate Goldy a 75% chance of extending into 2023, and a 50% chance of going again in 2024. The emergence of an absolutely elite young midfield around him may be just the thing to keep the spring in his step.

 

[The Anvil]

Players I do not think will get renewed unless they have some kind of Herculean season:


Players who might find their role in the club no longer exists:
Ziebell (29y 11m)
P. Walker (28y 2m)
Atley (28y 4m)
Dumont (25y 6m)

Patrick Walker is 28yo? Surely not, is this a typo on the DoB for the club site? He looks 10 years younger than that.

 

[Devington]

Patrick Walker is 28yo? Surely not, is this a typo on the DoB for the club site? He looks 10 years younger than that.

He meant Josh Walker.

 

[Tas]

Patrick Walker is 28yo? Surely not, is this a typo on the DoB for the club site? He looks 10 years younger than that.

Oops, meant Josh. Too many Walkers!