Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[Neese]

Was at a uni party and met this guy, I shook his hand and said my first name he replied with Jack Lonie St.Kilda player. No from me.

haha, what a flog

 

[ParapMarkets]

7+8 = 3195 points. Pick 3 is worth 2234 points. We'd have to throw in pick 19 to even it up.

There's no way in hell St Kilda would trade 7&8 for pick 3, I'm not sure they would do that for pick 1 unless there was someone they were hugely excited about.

 

[F_therest]

7+8 = 3195 points. Pick 3 is worth 2234 points. We'd have to throw in pick 19 to even it up.

Exactly...we'd need to throw in our 2018 2nd rounder to make it relatively even.

Can people stop with the pick 3 for pick 7 & 8 hypotheticals? Just so unrealistic and waste of time talking about.

 

[TooBlue14]

7+8 = 3195 points. Pick 3 is worth 2234 points. We'd have to throw in pick 19 to even it up.

If they want Kelly for 3 then they will pay overs just like Hawks did for omeara with them in the first place. They deserve to be held over a barrel

 

[ShanDog]

Exactly...we'd need to throw in our 2018 2nd rounder to make it relatively even.

Can people stop with the pick 3 for pick 7 & 8 hypotheticals? Just so unrealistic and waste of time talking about.

Why are people using the academy and father/son points system to determine if pick trades are fair?

 

[Robertio]

I'd rather use them and turn Gibbs into Kennedy plus.

Yep that's how SOS operates.

 

[Soapy V]

Says a lot about the lack of talent in this draft that a kid whose coming back from injury like that can rocket into top ten calcs

Burton?

 

[SE_Blue]

Was at a uni party and met this guy, I shook his hand and said my first name he replied with Jack Lonie St.Kilda player. No from me.

Good to see that type of flog attitude runs in the family.

 

[F_therest]

Why are people using the academy and father/son points system to determine if pick trades are fair?

I don't solely look at that, they just provide a rough guide.

Forget the points, trading pick 3 for pick 7 & 8 is just so obviously in our favour that there is no chance St Kilda would do it...if you think that's a fair trade, you really have your Carlton bias in full swing.

 

[Soapy V]

Why the rush?
Go into next year with:

FB: Plowman, Jones, Marchbank
HB: Byrne, Weitering, Williamson
C: Docherty, C. Curnow, Murphy
R: Kreuzer, Cripps, Kennedy
HF: SPS, Casboult, Cuningham
FF: Silvagni, McKay, Fisher

I/C from Simpson, E. Curnow, Wright, Pickett, Boekhorst, Lamb, Balic, Lang, ASOS based on form and needs.

Develop Higgins, Constable, Brayshaw, Hayes, Polson, Macreadie, Kerr through the VFL side with leadership and support from Rowe, ASOS, Thomas, Phillips, Graham, Wright, Smedts, Palmer etc.

I like it but a few of those names won't be there in 2018. The sooner some of those kids are able to play AFL the better. If they can throw them straight in. Will develop quicker. The highlighted names should be regulars next year. You also forgot LeBois

Trade Gibbs and get LDU Stephenson Brayshaw then another 4-5 kids and its a very exciting year. Might have to renew my Northern Blues membership

 

[ShanDog]

I don't solely look at that, they just provide a rough guide.

Forget the points, trading pick 3 for pick 7 & 8 is just so obviously in our favour that there is no chance St Kilda would do it...if you think that's a fair trade, you really have your Carlton bias in full swing.

Sure, as a rough guide it has some value. But picks aren't currency and the drafting and trading periods aren't purely objective exercises in economics. A pick is only worth what you think is available in the draft at that number or what it can get you as a commodity on the trade table.

 

[Sheephead]

I have it on fairly good authority that the Saints are big into Rayner, as is North at 4, so 1,2 or 3 is the level they need to get to. 3 for 7 and 8 makes all the sense to me. Points don't matter either, that's only under the bidding system. If Hawks were to reciprocate our assistance from last year they could swap a 2nd for a 5th if they felt so inclined (I know - chill - hypothetical).

Id be happy to drop to 7 and 8. Constable at 7 would be very nice. Trade 8 and something (Gibbs pick) for the 2017 GWS instalment of our 66 game rebuild.

 

[F_therest]

Sure, as a rough guide it has some value. But picks aren't currency and the drafting and trading periods aren't purely objective exercises in economics. A pick is only worth what you think is available in the draft at that number or what it can get you as a commodity on the trade table.

Yes i agree with you and you're talking sense.

But my statement still stands...weighting up everything you just said, putting myself in St Kilda's shoes and what we know so far about the draft, there is a 0.01% chance they would agree to such a trade.

 

[JustaBattler]

But your quotes contradict each other JustaBattler..
If Kelly wants the Saints and they need pick 3 to do the deal and SOS would rather 2 top 10 picks than 1 (knowing Kelly is out of Blues equation) then it is a benefit to the Blues to trade 3 for 7 and 8.
So yes we will be helping "those campaigners" but only to the benefit of us as well.
I don't particularly agree or disagree with this scenario tbh, I was more spit balling as to why SOS would want to chat to the Saints about a deal.
Another scenario is maybe Kelly does want the Blues but GWS want 2 x top 10 picks in this draft.
It could be possible that SOS needs the Saints to give US a chop out!
I suppose all will be revealed in the next few weeks!

IF GWS need 2 first round picks for Kelly AND Kelly nominates Saints THEN Saints dont need Carlton's pick#3 for 7+8, do they?
IF SOS needs picks 7+8 AND has preferred interest in using these picks for other players THEN that is fine.

What I am suggesting is that Carlton in going after more developed players/mids ( if rumours can be believed) see Coniglio/Kelly/Kennedy/Smith and even Scully THEN obviously pick#3 will figure in the equation - and that is where IF Saints need pick#3 and only pick #3 for Kelly THEN we have them over a barrel so to speak and should use the leverage accordingly. IF WE need picks 7+8 to get 1-3 of these types THEN offering pick#3 to Saints makes sense.

My focus is on building midfield depth and quality sooner rather than later - which means developed players under the age of 23/24 to fit into current list build profile and be able to replace Simpson/Murphy and even a departing Gibbs this year or in 2 years.

You have to balance drafting with a core of developed players and Carlton is short of developed players of quality in the right age bracket to remain in a core group pushing to contend by 2020.

Draft alone is not the answer with Gibbs possibly wanting a move underlining the fact.

The biggest disappointment Carlton has had with SOS /Bolton era is the lack of performance from players like: Graham/Buckley/Gorringe/Smedts/Palmer/Boekhurst types - the recruits have all played better than expectations - but none of them is developed enough to play 4 quarters yet and I don't expect any of them to be capable of doing it in 2018 either.

Harder developed bodies and experience matter.

Agree we will see what SOS and Co can achieve with limited spend budget soon enough.

 

[ShanDog]

Yes i agree with you and you're talking sense.

But my statement still stands...weighting up everything you just said, putting myself in St Kilda's shoes and what we know so far about the draft, there is a 0.01% chance they would agree to such a trade.

Yep, very unlikely unless there is a specific reason for them needing pick 3.

 

[Gingerbread man]

I could not be any less interested in getting Scully to the club

 

[ParapMarkets]

If they want Kelly for 3 then they will pay overs just like Hawks did for omeara with them in the first place. They deserve to be held over a barrel

Surely picks 7 & 8 have more value in a trade for them. GWS would then have the option of trading those picks if they wanted a particular player in the draft. Surely they would be more interested in trading those picks with Brisbane for pick 1 to make a certainty of whichever player they wanted.

 

[JustaBattler]

Yep, very unlikely unless there is a specific reason for them needing pick 3.

which would require either (a) draft tampering; OR (b) a known trade for pick outcome and in the case of (b) Brisbane and Suns must also get to figure in discussions not just Carlton...since (c) pick# 1 or 2 > 3

 

[Benaly28]

IF saints want pick 3 then unless it benefits us and us only,they can get stuffed.

 

[Dadda Dave]

IF saints want pick 3 then unless it benefits us and us only,they can get stuffed.

Yeah **** the saints & the horse they rode in on ..

 

[BlueTongue]

Sure, as a rough guide it has some value. But picks aren't currency and the drafting and trading periods aren't purely objective exercises in economics. A pick is only worth what you think is available in the draft at that number or what it can get you as a commodity on the trade table.

Spot on.

 

[Jimmae]

Says a lot about the lack of talent in this draft that a kid whose coming back from injury like that can rocket into top ten calcs

It says a lot more about him; you need to watch him play and see the condition he's come back in.

I have it on fairly good authority that the Saints are big into Rayner, as is North at 4, so 1,2 or 3 is the level they need to get to. 3 for 7 and 8 makes all the sense to me. Points don't matter either, that's only under the bidding system. If Hawks were to reciprocate our assistance from last year they could swap a 2nd for a 5th if they felt so inclined (I know - chill - hypothetical).

Id be happy to drop to 7 and 8. Constable at 7 would be very nice. Trade 8 and something (Gibbs pick) for the 2017 GWS instalment of our 66 game rebuild.

They'll want something else from us, but they may sweeten the pot on top of that with a 3rd round pick or a player.

I wouldn't say no to 7, 8 & 43 for 3 & 23 (from GWS).

 

[BlueTongue]

I could not be any less interested in getting Scully to the club

Ditto. I really don't see any positives to trading Gibbs & recruiting Scully.
He has elite endurance but considering how long he's been in the system I think we could go for way more talented players.

 

[SonOfColin]

Is there any chance we could get Aliir Aliir cheap?
Impressed me last year, and has very much been on the outs.

 

[slashin_velvet]

This makes absolutely 0 sense to me;

• If we would take 7 & 8 for Pick 3, why wouldn't GWS accept 7 & 8 from Saints in order to secure Kelly?
• If GWS have a specific player in mind which requires pick 3 (ie. Rayner), and Kelly nominates Saints so we do a deal to get 7 & 8, why would we be able to 'Trade in' Rayner in 3-4 years time? What makes you think GWS will give him up?
• Why are you so sure Pick 3 will secure the player GWS wants - what if Rayner goes Pick 1?

Too many assumptions to predict how it will all unfold. I'm sure GWS will want the best compensation they can get for Kelly and 7 & 8 is worth more in points.

Had my blue toungue firmly planted in cheek