Bookies fall for it again

[Blues2001]

I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw that the Brisbane Lions had been made equal second flag favourites in the Hun yesterday. But then again, seeing as though its happened many times before, I wasn't that surprised at all.

On the back of a couple of Gabba wins (and a extremely unconvincing win against the comp's wipping boys in perth) they are now back where the bookies always seem to put them...in the top 2-3 fancies for the flag. They still haven't passed any Melbourne test whatsoever. I reckon they'll need to pass it three or four times before they can be thought of as a real flag chance. Sure they may win a Gabba final, but they will eventually have to come to Melbourne.

Why do the bookies always rate the Lions so highly?

Better flag chances in my opinion (not saying these teams will finish above them on the ladder, but they are better FLAG chances):

Essendon
Port
Carlton
Hawthorn
Richmond
Collingwood
Adelaide
Bulldogs

Just my opinion, but I reckon the above teams are all a better chance of actually winning the flag, yet Brisbane are second favourites for the flag.

Am I being too harsh on Brisbane?

 

[CJH]

I actually think you are spot on!

 

[goatmaster]

goatmaster

Agree withe everything bar your headline. Should read Punters fall for it again. A bookie sets the odds at what people will back them at not at what he would back them at. The lions are rated by the media (see how about 1/2 of the tipsters had them in the GF before the season).
It is also about who has won lately. Carlton , Hawthorn & Port all had the bye after previous losses. No reason for people to back them now.

 

[GOALden Hawk]

Totally agree Blues 2001, I don't rate the Lions that highly at all.

I've only ever seen them win once in Melbourne, and that was against Hawthorn in an Ansett Cup match...woohoo!

I think they are an OK side, but Hawthorn beat them in Melbourne and Brisbane last year. I'm going up there in 2 weeks time, and I still believe Hawthorn will win.

I know I wouldn't be backing them for the flag!

 

[Blues2001]

Re: goatmaster

Originally posted by goatmaster
Agree withe everything bar your headline. Should read Punters fall for it again. A bookie sets the odds at what people will back them at not at what he would back them at. The lions are rated by the media (see how about 1/2 of the tipsters had them in the GF before the season).
It is also about who has won lately. Carlton , Hawthorn & Port all had the bye after previous losses. No reason for people to back them now.

Yeah, you're right, although I thought it was a combination of punter money and bookie's opinions which set the odds. You often hear of a bookie say, we're keeping Essendon 'safe' or we're keeping this horse 'safe' because in their opinion they are a better chance than what the money suggests.

I think you are correct about there being no reason to back those other teams now.

 

[goatmaster]

Yes you are right Blues 2001 it is a combination that does affect the odds. You also have to remember that in a long term race like the flag with betting over about 9 months the bookie can lay off very easily. The trick is not to get burned with a flood that shortens a team in a hurry so you pay to much to lay off. What they do is shorten whoever wins by- more if it is impressive.
What you need to look at is backing a team after losses.

 

[Danni]

Well speaking as a Lions supporter - I can never understand why they rate us like that either.

Now for the beginning of last year, that was one thing, coming off the great 1999 season etc etc. But why after we continually non-perform when (and where) it counts, they keep popping us back up there, I have no idea.

 

[joshhem]

Lets just wait and see.......

we're up there now because we beat ESSENDON. Something that not many teams have done and if there is going to be an upset, they've seen brisbane do it. If we can beat the Hawks next round, then I'm going to rate us as a grand finalist too.

We'll just see what happens shall we??

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by joshhem
Lets just wait and see.......

we're up there now because we beat ESSENDON. Something that not many teams have done and if there is going to be an upset, they've seen brisbane do it. If we can beat the Hawks next round, then I'm going to rate us as a grand finalist too.

We'll just see what happens shall we??

So did Carlton...in Melbourne as well. Beating Essendon in Brisbane will mean nothing come that final Saturday in September. Besides, the odds were for the flag, not for the GF. You may make the GF (but I doubt it), but you WON'T win the flag.

 

[sbagman]

Yeah I think I need way more convincing of the Lions. They seem to lack the toughness of other sides, despite arguably having the skill. They need a few really close finishes before I will accept they are mentally up to it. I seem to remember quite a few close losses by the Lions in recent years, which suggests to me they are lacking something...

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by sbagman
Yeah I think I need way more convincing of the Lions. They seem to lack the toughness of other sides, despite arguably having the skill. They need a few really close finishes before I will accept they are mentally up to it. I seem to remember quite a few close losses by the Lions in recent years, which suggests to me they are lacking something...

Agreed - they're great frontrunners - when they're playing at the Gabba and get a few goals up, they'll often end up pummeling teams and everyone thinks how wonderful they are - it gives a distorted view of where they are really at.

 

[Bloodstained Angel]

They are flat track bullies and nothing more.

Just look at the way they give up without a whimper whenever they are in Melbourne.

Never win games at the MCG - never

and gee - guess where the GF is played ?

They'll continue to slaughter all comers in Brisbane and that will be enough to see them at 3rd, 4th or 5th but as usual with these guys, it will see ya later in the Prelim finals.

I'll make the prediction right now - Essendon over the Lions in the Prelim Final by a lazy 53 points.

cheers

 

[dees01]

Brisbane will easily make the eight, maybe Top 4. But coming down to Melbourne is a problem and they did not beat much last week.

 

[Blues2001]

Ouch! This thread is painful to look at now

Hopefully tomorrow it will be even more painful for me!

 

[CyberKev]

Originally posted by Blues2001
Ouch! This thread is painful to look at now

Hopefully tomorrow it will be even more painful for me!

LOL! Its all part and parcel of spending our lives trying to be know it all 'Monday's Experts'... Just imagine how dull life would be if we were right all of the time...

Kevin

 

[Fat Red]

Some idiots trawl through other people's old posts looking for predictions they made to throw in their faces.

But B2001 does it to himself!?

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by Fat Red


Some idiots trawl through other people's old posts looking for predictions they made to throw in their faces.

But B2001 does it to himself!?

What sort of idiot does that make me??

 

[elt]

Originally posted by Blues2001
What sort of idiot does that make me??

To quote George Costanza : "Lord of the Idiots!"

 

[GOALden Hawk]

Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
Totally agree Blues 2001, I don't rate the Lions that highly at all.

I've only ever seen them win once in Melbourne, and that was against Hawthorn in an Ansett Cup match...woohoo!

I think they are an OK side, but Hawthorn beat them in Melbourne and Brisbane last year. I'm going up there in 2 weeks time, and I still believe Hawthorn will win.

I know I wouldn't be backing them for the flag!

Oh dear oh dear!

What was I thinking! To be fair...my opinion did change A LOT after they smashed us at the Gabba...they were the most impressive side we played all season. Still - rather embarrassing!

However I'll stand by my last statement - I reckon Essendon will win tomorrow. I'm surprised they are still favourites - certainly more people on BF have tipped the Lions.

 

[Blues_Brat]

Blues2001, mate I would've hidden this one away and not told a soul! Talk about the quotes that come back to haunt you.

Thing is the bookies seem to be pretty close to the mark more often than not. I should get a bookie to do my footy tipping!