Brownlow Guru Speaks - 2015

[tigerninja]

To be fair Rance got a lot compared with Hurley who was also AA.

8 is not a lot. Both treated poorly of course, not to take anything away from Hurley but Rance was going to get more anyway.

 

[B4Bear]

To be fair Dangers copping a lot of shyte for daring to have an alternative view.

He is copping s**t for being an abusive flog who made a song and dance about a system, because it didn't rate Dangerfield.

Now he is claiming victory because he 'made (yeah right)' money on the Brownlow, and Dangerfield was only 2 votes out of the top 5.

No proof, no betting slips, no nothing. At least Roby posted his tips before the games, not claim he got them right after with no proof (mostly).

Moral victor using hindsight. Sounds like my 11 year old.

 

[ash_1050]

It takes a strong person to criticise someone who has tried and failed when they themselves did not even try.

 

[Dan]

To be fair Dangers copping a lot of shyte for daring to have an alternative view.

Difference of opinion is great, it's what makes the forum what it is. But when bitch, bitch, bitch, over and over......you open yourself up to ridicule.

 

[Confuscius]

id say it's not critiquing the system itself that has him copping a lot of grief but rather how he's gone about it that's done it.

BG said himself that it was a disappointing year so it's not like he's against criticism.

But calling out a thread for brownlow predictions when there are dozens of worse topics posted every day is just over the top already. It's a forum, people will post topics.

But then to slam the omission of Dangerfield in the top 3 as a major error of the system and claim that they would make huge money of those odds is again just even further over the top.

And then to come back again once Dangerfield finished 5th and say that it justifies the claim that he'd finish top 3 is outright ludicrous.

And it's followed up with a mention of a mysterious system that we might be lucky enough to see my next year but it definitely made sweet coin yesterday.

Those reasons are probably why he's copping it

 

[Deliverance]

And how was his assessment of you know, the ones he said to bet on?
Oh thats right they both finished outside the top 10.

Stop talking it up. The system was rubbish and nobody made money on it.

FWIW I had Fyfe then Priddis Mitchell and Dangerfield tied, so I was much much closer.

Not true, betting agencies made millions.

 

[DangerSloane]

8 is not a lot. Both treated poorly of course, not to take anything away from Hurley but Rance was going to get more anyway.

Yeah but thats the thing, key backs rarely get votes.
Neither do ruckmen, but hey no point in accounting for that in the model

 

[Mudeo]

Well $9.50 was overs. So if you were looking for 'value' which this thread apparently was all about, then that's the definition.

Turns out he didn't get a place, but he was most certainly a better chance than 1 in 10.

Its also not irrelevant. I'm comparing the system with what actually happened and it was nowhere near.

But his system was right and you lost... You are still not getting this

 

[bjwilliams]

for the winners?

i bet on it every year so i got a decent idea. this is all from memory though...

2014 priddis: in the 20s (abletts injury made it a very open market)
2013 ablett: 1.5 (the only unbackable favorite to win in recent times)
2012 watson: 5 (shared joint favoritism with cotchin and scott thompson)
2011 swan: 10-1 (judd unbackable favorite)
2010 judd: 10-1 (swan unbackable favorite)
2009 ablett: 2-1 (was clear favorite but not unbackable)
2008 cooney: 10-1 (possible more, definitely wasn't the favorite)
2007 bartel: 10-1 (ablett was the favorite here too)
2006 i was underage lol

funnily enough this season mimics last year where the clear favorite had a huge drop off in the second half of the year. given the favorites have a pretty consistent history of getting beat i can't say i like fyfe at 2-1. value IMO would be someone like hanneberry or mitchell in double figures.

Cooney got into 7-1 for Charlie. Dogs mate put $100 on him and won it.

 

[PepeSilvia]

I haven't been able to post, but greatly enjoyed this thread. Always like your work BrownlowGuru.

Thank you for the A-grade melt too, DangerSloane, seriously fascinating stuff.