Cam Rayner

[CarterS]

you mean the guy that we were desperate to stay? meanwhile Brisbane trying to trade Rayner. Lol. but why would they given his talent?

I think its time to recognise your own bias, what's your evidence for this? Sanderson on Trade Radio? It's called confirmation bias when you interpret new evidence as proof of your own theory.

 

[danster168]

Breathtaking use of mere speculation by people not involved with Brisbane FC or any other FC as evidence of how Rayner is rated by those who matter.

You rating of players draft position value based solely on what they have achieved so far in their careers is obviously pointless. It is not what I asked you to do and in any event it requires all players to be at the same stage of their career to be any sort of fair comparison. In any event you f*cked yours totally even by your own pointless method where you rated Charlie Spargo way ahead of Rayner based on what they had done to that point in their careers, and Rayner had demonstrably done better.

But you need to nail your colours to the mast with Rayner. What pick would he be worth in a trade right here right now? Is he going to turn out a useless pick, or will he be one of the top 5, 10, 15 or 20 players in his draft when all is said and done? You are p1sspoor enough at predicting the past, but have a go at predicting the future like the rest of us danster, put your disgraceful reputation on the line.

Rating players draft position value based on what they've done in their first 5 years to date is very very relevant. like I've said previously, there's multiple players in Rayners draft who have already become stars of the game in the first 5 years of their careers. You can't disregard these players who have already given so much to their clubs. This means that these players have produced 2-3 quality seasons of high level football, which means Rayner is 2-3 seasons behind these guys. For him to break even with guys like Sam Taylor, Brayshaw, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Fritsch etc. then he needs these guys to be terrible for the next 2-3 seasons and Rayner to produce AA-calibre football. Which is just never going to happen.

And no spargo and Rayner have done about the same in their careers thus far. But Rayner will probably surpass him next year. Rayner has basically done not much other than show us that he won't be a full time mid unless he improves his fitness.

In terms of trading, Rayner would be worth a late first rounder. Say pick 14-18.

lol the guy that didn't rate Fritsch who was named in the AA squad talking about reputation. Please, you can't recover from that. And then you did the old 'but but, I don't rate the AA or the bunch of selectors' lol.

How about you nail your colours to your mast and tell me in the 2017 draft, based on what they've produced so far, where is rayner?

 

[MisterMarcus]

I'd love to see Rayner get traded to Melbourne.

The 180-degree spin from Old Mate Danster would be so rapid, it would create a tornado over Jolimont....

 

[Hollow Knight]

1. The fact that there is even an article about him shows that he is considered expendable. You don't get these sort of articles about Fritsch, Oliver, Petracca, etc.

Trade Radio were shipping Petracca off as part of the Lever trade a few years back. Awkward.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Lmao. Brisbane’s list manager told Sando to go and get ****ed with his Rayner rumours. Rayner going nowhere.

A very contrite Sandy trying to backpedal. Great stuff.

 

[Hollow Knight]

This is so delicious to listen to.

Brenton Sanderson clarifies Cam Rayner comments (Trade Afternoons) - Day 3 (28/09/22)

Tail well and truly between legs.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This is so delicious to listen to.

Brenton Sanderson clarifies Cam Rayner comments (Trade Afternoons) - Day 3 (28/09/22)

Tail well and truly between legs.

As is danster168 ’s.

 

[danster168]

As is danster168 ’s.

its too late, he already came out and said Brisbane should trade him. He literally said they copped a lot of flack from Brisbane fans. none of the neutrals were getting on his back about it it seems.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Rating players draft position value based on what they've done in their first 5 years to date is very very relevant. like I've said previously, there's multiple players in Rayners draft who have already become stars of the game in the first 5 years of their careers. You can't disregard these players who have already given so much to their clubs. This means that these players have produced 2-3 quality seasons of high level football, which means Rayner is 2-3 seasons behind these guys. For him to break even with guys like Sam Taylor, Brayshaw, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Fritsch etc. then he needs these guys to be terrible for the next 2-3 seasons and Rayner to produce AA-calibre football. Which is just never going to happen.

And no spargo and Rayner have done about the same in their careers thus far. But Rayner will probably surpass him next year. Rayner has basically done not much other than show us that he won't be a full time mid unless he improves his fitness.

In terms of trading, Rayner would be worth a late first rounder. Say pick 14-18.

lol the guy that didn't rate Fritsch who was named in the AA squad talking about reputation. Please, you can't recover from that. And then you did the old 'but but, I don't rate the AA or the bunch of selectors' lol.

How about you nail your colours to your mast and tell me in the 2017 draft, based on what they've produced so far, where is rayner?

What Rayner has produced so far has been his first 3 seasons, where he was a developing AFL footballer, a season off with an ACL injury, and his more than acceptable 2022 season off the ACL injury.

Loads of very good players from that 2017 draft have had a season that has gone wrong for one reason or another, Rayner, Allen, Daniels, Clark, Taylor, Higgins with injuries, Balta with some failed experimentation with his role.

Players who have produced one elite quality season are probably Taylor, Naughton, Brayshaw, all in 2022, but you can give them all a big tick, they are the best achievers of the 2017 draft class so far.

After these guys you have a host of players who look to be tracking well in their roles, but none have produced anything remarkable to this point. Rayner is in this group along with Uniacke, D. Fogarty, Bailey, Richards, Starcevich, Powell, Allen, Balta, Clark, De Koning, McCartin, Petty, Ballard, Moore, Switkowski, Cerra.

Then you have the players who have produced something worthwhile but not to the level of the above players, Jiath, Spargo, Miers. And another group who have shown a decent level for a time but now appear to be tracking backwards, Stephenson, Worpel. Is Worpel or Stephenson or Miers or Spargo’s career to this point better overall than Rayner’s? I don’t think so, but you might form a different view. However, what we do know is players come in and out of vogue at different times, they develop, they find form, they get worked out, they then improve or don’t. Some show little for a long time then suddenly turn a corner and look the business, like Fogarty and Richards. Some start looking strong then have setbacks, like Hunter Clark. others like Starcevich find their feet and are consistent but they have a definite ceiling. But for all these players, the real game starts from 2023, where they enter their prime.

I am leaving the mature draftees like Kelly, Fritsch, Ryan, Mihocek, Baker out of this comparison because we won’t be able to line them up against the other players until a few more years have passed, but of those only Kelly has produced elite football seasons, and bar Kelly all of these have been very decent performers, but none have produced anything that looks beyond what a good dozen or more of the draft class are tracking to achieve.

Where does Rayner fit in on a performance so far basis? Well there are the mature guys and the top 3 already elite players from the draft class clearly ahead of him. After that he is just in a confusing group of players who have all shown strong glimpses but none have consistently performed for long periods above the average of the group. Rayner’s 2022 was a lot better than what you have ever conceded. And beside that he only played his first 3 seasons, where like almost all of these players he struggled to have a big impact. I would doubt whether in reality there are more than about 10 players from the actual draft class who have produced a better season than Rayner’s 2022, where it must be remembered he was coming off a year out with an ACL. He is up with the best in the draft class at some things, especially winning big contests or dealing well with being outnumbered. That is a hugely valuable ability to have in footy.

 

[danster168]

What Rayner has produced so far has been his first 3 seasons, where he was a developing AFL footballer, a season off with an ACL injury, and his more than acceptable 2022 season off the ACL injury.

Loads of very good players from that 2017 draft have had a season that has gone wrong for one reason or another, Rayner, Allen, Daniels, Clark, Taylor, Higgins with injuries, Balta with some failed experimentation with his role.

Players who have produced one elite quality season are probably Taylor, Naughton, Brayshaw, all in 2022, but you can give them all a big tick, they are the best achievers of the 2017 draft class so far.

After these guys you have a host of players who look to be tracking well in their roles, but none have produced anything remarkable to this point. Rayner is in this group along with Uniacke, D. Fogarty, Bailey, Richards, Starcevich, Powell, Allen, Balta, Clark, De Koning, McCartin, Petty, Ballard, Moore, Switkowski, Cerra.

Then you have the players who have produced something worthwhile but not to the level of the above players, Jiath, Spargo, Miers. And another group who have shown a decent level for a time but now appear to be tracking backwards, Stephenson, Worpel. Is Worpel or Stephenson or Miers or Spargo’s career to this point better overall than Rayner’s? I don’t think so, but you might form a different view. However, what we do know is players come in and out of vogue at different times, they develop, they find form, they get worked out, they then improve or don’t. Some show little for a long time then suddenly turn a corner and look the business, like Fogarty and Richards. Some start looking strong then have setbacks, like Hunter Clark. others like Starcevich find their feet and are consistent but they have a definite ceiling. But for all these players, the real game starts from 2023, where they enter their prime.

I am leaving the mature draftees like Kelly, Fritsch, Ryan, Mihocek, Baker out of this comparison because we won’t be able to line them up against the other players until a few more years have passed, but of those only Kelly has produced elite football seasons, and bar Kelly all of these have been very decent performers, but none have produced anything that looks beyond what a good dozen or more of the draft class are tracking to achieve.

Where does Rayner fit in on a performance so far basis? Well there are the mature guys and the top 3 already elite players from the draft class clearly ahead of him. After that he is just in a confusing group of players who have all shown strong glimpses but none have consistently performed for long periods above the average of the group. Rayner’s 2022 was a lot better than what you have ever conceded. And beside that he only played his first 3 seasons, where like almost all of these players he struggled to have a big impact. I would doubt whether in reality there are more than about 10 players from the actual draft class who have produced a better season than Rayner’s 2022, where it must be remembered he was coming off a year out with an ACL. He is up with the best in the draft class at some things, especially winning big contests or dealing well with being outnumbered. That is a hugely valuable ability to have in footy.

Ok, so I do give Rayner some extra time due to the acl. I think next year he really needs to be heading to AA squad territory to make up the ground. I agree with most of the players that you listed. Other than Naughton who has had multiple elite seasons. I also think he showed to be one of the bulldogs best key defenders early on his career. He has also taken the oppositions best defender for years.

I think De koning, Petty, Bailey, Cerra and Uniacke and Starcevic are probably well ahead Moore, Ballard, Switkowski, Clark, Allen, Will Powell and Rayner (who I put in that group).

Obviously we disagree on Fritsch's position which is what has sparked a lot of this. He made the AA squad and is probably a top 15 forward in the league so I think that puts him in comfortably in the top group for me. But alas, back to Rayner, yes maybe I don't give him enough credit but he is subconsciously held to a higher standard due to his pick 1 status. Rightly or wrongly. I'm not denying Rayner doesn't have traits. He has some elite traits, but he needs to produce more consistently within games as well as during the season. He needs to get fitter and play as a full time midfielder or play forward and kick 50+ goals a season. I know Fritsch doesn't get much of the ball but he kicks goals. All the other stats I care less about. I want goals from my forwards. At Brisbane, they have Daniher, Hipwood, C.Cameron, Bailey and McStay. Rayner is getting the 5th-6th best defender whenever he goes forward, in a team that scores a lot. The counter argument to that is he is getting less usage with all of those other players but I personally think he needs to nail down a position.

I want to use Petracca and Oliver as a good example. Petracca took 5 years to hit his straps. The first 5 years he was wasting away on the half forward line, not doing a whole lot. Just a lot of flashes. Then he got himself fit, got to be a full time midfielder and has been a great player ever since (the last 3 years). He has had 3 elite seasons.

Then we compare him to Oliver who has been a jet from day 1 and won our Best n Fairest in only his 2nd year and has been a 3 x AA, 4x BnF winner, 2x AFLCA winner. And he is 1.5 years younger. He has had 6 elite seasons.

Many people would say that Petracca has the higher trade value because of his upside but in terms of who has produced the most. It's Oliver by a country mile. In fact 3 extra years of elite service. Petracca will never be able to close this gap. So when their careers finish up, barring any big injuries, Oliver will have given the Dees much more value than what Petracca gave us. So that's what I'm saying with Rayner, the longer he takes to hit his straps the more of a failure the pick will be. Failure is probably too harsh a word.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Ok, so I do give Rayner some extra time due to the acl. I think next year he really needs to be heading to AA squad territory to make up the ground. I agree with most of the players that you listed. Other than Naughton who has had multiple elite seasons. I also think he showed to be one of the bulldogs best key defenders early on his career. He has also taken the oppositions best defender for years.

I think De koning, Petty, Bailey, Cerra and Uniacke and Starcevic are probably well ahead Moore, Ballard, Switkowski, Clark, Allen, Will Powell and Rayner (who I put in that group).

Obviously we disagree on Fritsch's position which is what has sparked a lot of this. He made the AA squad and is probably a top 15 forward in the league so I think that puts him in comfortably in the top group for me. But alas, back to Rayner, yes maybe I don't give him enough credit but he is subconsciously held to a higher standard due to his pick 1 status. Rightly or wrongly. I'm not denying Rayner doesn't have traits. He has some elite traits, but he needs to produce more consistently within games as well as during the season. He needs to get fitter and play as a full time midfielder or play forward and kick 50+ goals a season. I know Fritsch doesn't get much of the ball but he kicks goals. All the other stats I care less about. I want goals from my forwards. At Brisbane, they have Daniher, Hipwood, C.Cameron, Bailey and McStay. Rayner is getting the 5th-6th best defender whenever he goes forward, in a team that scores a lot. The counter argument to that is he is getting less usage with all of those other players but I personally think he needs to nail down a position.

I want to use Petracca and Oliver as a good example. Petracca took 5 years to hit his straps. The first 5 years he was wasting away on the half forward line, not doing a whole lot. Just a lot of flashes. Then he got himself fit, got to be a full time midfielder and has been a great player ever since (the last 3 years). He has had 3 elite seasons.

Then we compare him to Oliver who has been a jet from day 1 and won our Best n Fairest in only his 2nd year and has been a 3 x AA, 4x BnF winner, 2x AFLCA winner. And he is 1.5 years younger. He has had 6 elite seasons.

Many people would say that Petracca has the higher trade value because of his upside but in terms of who has produced the most. It's Oliver by a country mile. In fact 3 extra years of elite service. Petracca will never be able to close this gap. So when their careers finish up, barring any big injuries, Oliver will have given the Dees much more value than what Petracca gave us. So that's what I'm saying with Rayner, the longer he takes to hit his straps the more of a failure the pick will be. Failure is probably too harsh a word.

 

[2006_Eagles]

Cam Paigner

 

[scott_the_man]

1. The fact that there is even an article about him shows that he is considered expendable. You don't get these sort of articles about Fritsch, Oliver, Petracca, etc.
2. It would be for all of the reasons outlined in the link I sent.
3. Incorrect. The pick offered for Rayner would be a reflection of what they see his value going forward. It isn't a reflection of what he's done in the last 5 years. Which is little. i.e. total value given since being drafted. Rayner is about 30 in his draft from day of drafted.

I didn't say that I think it will happen. But the fact that articles are written about him show that he probably isn't quite the player you make him out to be. And as the article says, he can't play midfield and he is an average forward.

That first point in the quoted post is probably the most moronic thing I've seen you post Dan. And that's saying something. You've outdone yourself!

 

[danster168]

That first point in the quoted post is probably the most moronic thing I've seen you post Dan. And that's saying something. You've outdone yourself!

yeah because there's a lot of articles out there of the best young talent being suggested as trade bait...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

yeah because there's a lot of articles out there of the best young talent being suggested as trade bait...

Danster your own club even effectively traded out an elite talent in Josh Kelly before he was drafted, so wtf are you on about? Not empty speculation to fill up air time, the club actually traded him, or Bontempelli, take your pick. The pick 1 in that season Tom Boyd was also traded promptly after one promising season. Pick 9 Ben McEvoy was traded after 6 decent seasons with the Saints as he was entering his prime. Pick 13 Tom Lynch of Adelaide fame was traded after two seasons went on to have a very good career. Pick 1 Scully left Melbourne after 2 decent seasons went on to have a number of very good seqsons at GWS. Top 10 picks Caddy & Prestia were traded out of Suns after 2 and 6 seasons both had really good careers. Pick 12 Docherty traded out after 2 seasons. Pick 14 Lever traded out early. From Rayner’s own draft Cerra traded out after 4 promising seasons played fine this year.

Plenty of top end players actually get traded early and go on to have good careers. Some of them were offered by their original club. Rayner has neither been offered nor is he requesting a trade. Brenton Sanderson is not connected to Brisbane at all just pulled his name out of a hat as a suggestion to try to balance up Brisbane’s points ledger. So you need to Calm. The. F*ck. Down.

 

[danster168]

Danster your own club even effectively traded out an elite talent in Josh Kelly before he was drafted, so wtf are you on about? Not empty speculation to fill up air time, the club actually traded him, or Bontempelli, take your pick. The pick 1 in that season Tom Boyd was also traded promptly after one promising season. Pick 9 Ben McEvoy was traded after 6 decent seasons with the Saints as he was entering his prime. Pick 13 Tom Lynch of Adelaide fame was traded after two seasons went on to have a very good career. Pick 1 Scully left Melbourne after 2 decent seasons went on to have a number of very good seqsons at GWS. Top 10 picks Caddy & Prestia were traded out of Suns after 2 and 6 seasons both had really good careers. Pick 12 Docherty traded out after 2 seasons. Pick 14 Lever traded out early. From Rayner’s own draft Cerra traded out after 4 promising seasons played fine this year.

Plenty of top end players actually get traded early and go on to have good careers. Some of them were offered by their original club. Rayner has neither been offered nor is he requesting a trade. Brenton Sanderson is not connected to Brisbane at all just pulled his name out of a hat as a suggestion to try to balance up Brisbane’s points ledger. So you need to Calm. The. F*ck. Down.

Yeah, Brenton Sanderson isn't connected in any way to Brisbane. Nor does he have to be. My point was, you wouldn't find anyone saying that Geelong should trade out Sam De Koning or the bulldogs should trade Sam Darcy etc. it just doesn't happen. If he was as talented as you make him out to be, this thought wouldn't even enter into anyones mind.

Sanderson said it, and I wasn't remotely surprised by his view. I would cash in on rayner if a club was offering a mid round first rounder.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah, Brenton Sanderson isn't connected in any way to Brisbane. Nor does he have to be. My point was, you wouldn't find anyone saying that Geelong should trade out Sam De Koning or the bulldogs should trade Sam Darcy etc. it just doesn't happen. If he was as talented as you make him out to be, this thought wouldn't even enter into anyones mind.

Sanderson said it, and I wasn't remotely surprised by his view. I would cash in on rayner if a club was offering a mid round first rounder.

Lol, in 2016 pundits in the media who expect to be taken seriously were saying Richmond should trade out Cotchin, Martin and others and rebuild. David King actually said Richmond and Carlton had the two worst lists in the AFL at that time. People in the media say all sorts of stupid things, I wouldn’t be hanging your hat on a single voice of no authority plucking Rayner’s name out of thin air to try to make sense of Brisbane’s draft points issue.

 

[scott_the_man]

yeah because there's a lot of articles out there of the best young talent being suggested as trade bait...

Article is irrelevant, it's an opinion by someone and has zero backing. The fact that you think it means anything is exactly why they do it. Clickbait.

 

[danster168]

Meteoric Rise Thoughts on Rayner now being trialled as a defender? Why do so if he was a gun forward or gun mid?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Meteoric Rise Thoughts on Rayner now being trialled as a defender? Why do so if he was a gun forward or gun mid?

Lions obviously think he is the only player on the planet with a chance of stopping Dusty in finals. They must rate Rayner as a future all timer.

 

[Nunez]

Lions obviously think he is the only player on the planet with a chance of stopping Dusty in finals. They must rate Rayner as a future all timer.

Rayner is a strong contested ball winner but a big area of improvement for him was having a bigger impact on the outside. Playing down back is a great way of getting him used to outside ball gets and is a great way to strike a better balance in his game. If he can gather 20+ a game, watch out

 

[#23 Hill]

Meteoric Rise Thoughts on Rayner now being trialled as a defender? Why do so if he was a gun forward or gun mid?

Maybe having Dunkley and Gunston at the club as allowed it. Good ball user Rayner so I could see him being an effective rebound defender off half back. The knock on him as always been that he doesn't get enough of it because he doesn't have the tank to run out four quarters. Don't know if that's been addressed

 

[Nunez]

Maybe having Dunkley and Gunston at the club as allowed it. Good ball user Rayner so I could see him being an effective rebound defender off half back. The knock on him as always been that he doesn't get enough of it because he doesn't have the tank to run out four quarters. Don't know if that's been addressed

He ran a PB and has put a lot of effort in running this pre season.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Meteoric Rise Thoughts on Rayner now being trialled as a defender? Why do so if he was a gun forward or gun mid?

Oh God another whole season of this back-and-forth dick-swinging bullshit.....

 

[danster168]

Oh God another whole season of this back-and-forth dick-swinging bullshit.....

Nah not really. he may turn into an elite back flanker but it will be after failing as a mid and as a fwd. I wish him all the best in his new role.