Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[master bate]

care to justify a rebuild strategy which can take ten years to come to fruition and sometimes never?

depth is better than any time since 2016

My justification would be whatever it was Clarkson said to Dunstall and co to get the job when he first got to Hawthorn and then try to repeat that!

The Pies are a good example of a team that didn't take a decade and lost a flag by a kick. The Dogs might be another one that quickly realised a flag wasn't happening and that they needed to get back in towards the top of the draft to find an Aaron Naughton and Bailey Smith.

Even Port might've done very well on the decision to swap Polec for Duursma and then use the currency to make an aggressive move and exchange Wingard for Rozee.

If the Hawks landed Tom Lynch or Coniglio their strategy was probably right. Unless you can land a star like that as a free agent I think you'll eventually have to go backwards to go forwards and you'll regret not doing it sooner.

 

[Pessimistic]

The pies are an interesting case
from 2012 finishing 4th they went 11th 12th 12th 13th then3rd and a kick from a flag. Their last sub 80%year was 2005 second last. They played finals 2005 to 2013 winning a flag
Since 2013 the lowest percentage was 95%

not exactly bottoming out, and they haven’t been averse to recruiting quality players via trades

 

[master bate]

Basically I don't hear a lot of analysis around why the team that beat Geelong, GWS, Pies, West Coast in the latter part of the year, needs "a lot to go right". Is it because you think 36 was fine for Burgoyne , but 37 is a step too far? Is it because you think Patton and Frost will make the side worse (perhaps as a Melbourne fan I could concede your point on Frost). Do you think Wingard and Scully with full pre-seasons will not make us better? Is it because you think Mitchell's return will make us worse? It seems to me it would be more accurate to say that a lot would need to wrong not for us to make finals rather than the other way around. Some things have gone wrong already, losing Hardwick is definitely a blow (larger than the relatively low rating many outside the club attach to him). Maybe we'll have some more bad luck, and the upsides I've mentioned above will not be enough to counter them. We have had a habit the last few years of starting very poorly and having to fight hard for finals, narrowly missing twice due to leaving the run too late, and go on to not follow late season good form into the start of the following season, so my confidence is somewhat tempered (especially after watching the skill-less debacle that occurred tonight).

Basically I don't see a lot of logic applied to predictions of Hawthorn's trajectory from season to season. People ignore most recent exposed form at AFL level (and no, practice matches don't really count for much), ignore any upsides we might have that could positively impact that form, and predict a large raft of things going wrong that could derail our season, as if those things are not risks for any club. Essentially this thread seems like a well that opposition fans like to come to throw a coin, wishing for a bad season for hawthorn, because they've had too many good ones over the years. Thread needs more logic and less wish fulfilment fantasies.

Geelong lost to Freo when they were about to sack their coach down the stretch and were a 50/50 proposition biding time until finals, not sure that was a great win. GWS you played their NEAFL team in the snow. Collingwood was a good win and so was West Coast - who were up and down but I don't mean to discredit a very solid effort.

Comfortable losses to Essendon and Sydney mid year, twice easily handled by Brisbane and then a loss to North when finals were still a distinct possibility. The good wins aren't enough to erase those losses.

I actually do think Frost alongside Stratton, Frawley and McEvoy will make you worse. Need to pick 3 and surround with good ball users there. 37 might be too far for Burgoyne but more than that I think last year he went from regular difference maker to just getting by in the side. Wingard maybe but I'll need to see it. Scully no, he's always fit, cut off both legs and he'll still be fit - he'll also still struggle to win contests and kick. Patton clearly is better than Roughy on no legs and/or no one but there's a reason GWS didn't even bother trying to get him up for finals.

I suspect Isaac Smith with continue to decline. Henderson won't have a career year worthy of AA. Puop will be unplayable. Stratton might be too.

It's not that I don't think Hawthorn won't be good this year. I probably have them in the 8 at this stage. Just not enough improvement from last year to go from outside the 8 to flag contenders. There's just not the big ticket recruits, or guys in that 50-70 game range ready to make the leap or some kind of drastic remodelling of the team with skills and speed that

Richmond - Nank (filled a big hole), Prestia + Caddy (former top 10 picks in their prime ready to go to another level with fresh coaching) + completely new game style with fresh running players and forward set up + Rance, Jack, Dusty, Cotchin in their prime as elite A graders.

Hawthorn I guess it might be Frost + Patton/Wingard + Where's the game style and where are the superstars?

 

[Pessimistic]

Beyond richmonds big 4, not too many were being described as superstars before 2017.

it will be interesting when those remaining 3 look like retiring, whether they think this bigfooty vibe of aggressive rebuild is for them. I’m tipping it wasn’t in the briefing they gave Tom Lynch

I’m not a big fan of age based predictions, but Richmond have 5 players between 50 and 80 games. Hawthorn have 3, all are currently injured btw

also the squiggle has a High opinion of hawks 2020 - but that movement comes almost entirely form the two absolute smashings of GWS, which squiggle also likes. You mentioned that

 

[Maxabillions]

It's not that I don't think Hawthorn won't be good this year.

I am also in the negative in regards to not thinking they won’t be good this year!

 

[Maxabillions]

It seems likely that Hawthorn’s strategy was based on what some may call an arrogant assumption they’d be able to lure stars like coniglio, Whitfield, lynch etc in lieu of using top end picks to draft stars.

That obviously isn’t happening.

Will be interesting to see if they accept this hasn’t worked or double down.

Of concern is the injuries they already have this year and the fact they are mostly not to the older and more injury prone players on the list. Things could get very ugly if some of those players start to break down throughout the year as well, as is likely.

 

[hk89]

Geelong lost to Freo when they were about to sack their coach down the stretch and were a 50/50 proposition biding time until finals, not sure that was a great win.

Agreed that was a bad loss for Geelong, but Freo can be hard to beat in Perth, perhaps they felt they needed to put in a good one for the embattled coach.

GWS you played their NEAFL team in the snow.

NEAFL? Get your hand off it. There were only 7 changes between that team and the GWS GF team (and not all of those were improvements). What was their excuse when we played them earlier in the year and nearly doubled their score?

Collingwood was a good win and so was West Coast - who were up and down but I don't mean to discredit a very solid effort.

Comfortable losses to Essendon and Sydney mid year, twice easily handled by Brisbane and then a loss to North when finals were still a distinct possibility. The good wins aren't enough to erase those losses.

Yes, the turning point was the two losses to Essendon to Sydney. It was at that point that Wingard started to be fit enough to help out in the midfield more regularly, and Worpel started to stand up. Before then we were battling with an arguably AFL worst midfield. I'm not saying we were good all year. Starting from the WC game the following week from the Sydney loss we were very good except in the North game. We would have beaten WC twice if not for poor skills around goal. Yes, bad kicking is bad footy, but 9-17 to 11-11 was a squandered opportunity with WC hitting the front in the last minute or two. In the second Brisbane game, they didn't handle us easily, and their coach said it felt like a loss in the presser. We kicked 1-11 from set shots. Don't think I've ever seen a worse display from sets shots in a game before. Our inability to convert meant we had to open the game up a little too much around 3qrt time and Brisbane won by a bit more than they should have even given the poor accuracy (they still had less scoring shots). Smashed them in the middle of the ground, with big advantages for clearances, inside 50s to us, but forwards let us down.

I actually do think Frost alongside Stratton, Frawley and McEvoy will make you worse. Need to pick 3 and surround with good ball users there.

I'm assuming the game plan with Frost will largely be for him to give it to Sicily as often as possible, which isn't that different from Frawley. Frost will make us a good deal better because we have one of the best intercepting and rebounding defenders in the competition. Unfortunately we had to play him last year on stopping roles against dangerous forwards because we didn't have the other cattle to do it. Frost and McEvoy playing back means Sicily will be a weapon. Earlier in the season he was leading the competition in rebounds AND intercepts, but dropped off in those figures later in the season when he had to play a more defensive role (not his forte), and it probably cost him AA.

37 might be too far for Burgoyne but more than that I think last year he went from regular difference maker to just getting by in the side. Wingard maybe but I'll need to see it. Scully no, he's always fit, cut off both legs and he'll still be fit - he'll also still struggle to win contests and kick.

He's not in the side to win contests, although he can do it. You might remember that game he played for you guys in his 7th game of AFL footy. 39 possessions, 15 contested playing against a side that finished top 4. Turns out his fitness has been his strongest asset, and he played last year off limited preparation. Has looked pretty good this year, and was one of the few players who was decent against you on Friday night.

Patton clearly is better than Roughy on no legs and/or no one but there's a reason GWS didn't even bother trying to get him up for finals.

According to reports, GWS had no choice, he didn't want to risk a contract by playing, so made the call himself. GWS may well have kept it if not their cap issues.

I suspect Isaac Smith with continue to decline. Henderson won't have a career year worthy of AA. Puop will be unplayable. Stratton might be too.

What do you base all that on? I agree with Poppy, but last year Smith averaged more inside 50s and more rebound 50s than any other year in his entire career, and was also above his career average for possessions. What crystal ball did you use to make that call? I suggest you ask for a refund.

It's not that I don't think Hawthorn won't be good this year. I probably have them in the 8 at this stage.

I did too until I watched Friday night's game With a sneaky chance of top 4 if everything went well with Tom Mitchell, Patton and Frost providing some improvement. We certainly looked bad on Friday (worse than we did in the loss to Saints). However both on paper, and on recently exposed actual AFL game form, I still have some confidence.

Just not enough improvement from last year to go from outside the 8 to flag contenders.

We were top 4 based on the form ladder of the last 9 rounds. We don't need improvement, we just need to reproduce that form. That run was largely against a very rough set of teams too, not just a statistical fluke brought about by an easy run against a bunch of teams outside the 8. 6 of those 9 teams finished in the 8, and we played 3 of the preliminary finalists (again - beating all of them in that window of 9 games).

Richmond - Nank (filled a big hole), Prestia + Caddy (former top 10 picks in their prime ready to go to another level with fresh coaching) + completely new game style with fresh running players and forward set up + Rance, Jack, Dusty, Cotchin in their prime as elite A graders.

Hawthorn I guess it might be Frost + Patton/Wingard + Where's the game style and where are the superstars?

The game style is the game style that had us 4th on the form ladder in the last 9 rounds of last year. The players we'll add to that form are Mitchell, Patton, Frost (with Finn maybe having a chance of breaking into best 22 by seasons end given his body size). Losing Hardwick is a blow, no doubt. We notched up some good wins without Impey, but two small players out of the backline, one of which was important for our run and carry is far from ideal. How well we cover those two will have a large amount to play in where we finish. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in a similar situation to last year, where we get behind the 8 ball in early rounds, and hit some form when those two get back in the side, but perhaps too late to make the 8 again. Certainly if everyone you think is going to go dramatically down hill does, and the recruits have as little impact as you describe, then we'll struggle.

 

[hk89]

clearly the depth isn't what it once was for the Hawks.

Just another data point on this. It was only a practice match, but in terms of our depth sitting at Box Hill, we played your mob's VFL team in a practice game today. Casey Demon's kicked their first goal in the last quarter, and only two for the day, versus our 11. Both teams had about the same number of AFL listed players on the park (about half of each side's best 22 on the day, most of ours fairly young). I'm sure both sides had less of their regular AFL listed VFL players available given the extended bench from Friday night, but I hope Melbourne don't get many injuries, because it sounds like the cupboard is fairly bare at VFL level.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Geelong lost to Freo when they were about to sack their coach down the stretch and were a 50/50 proposition biding time until finals, not sure that was a great win. GWS you played their NEAFL team in the snow. Collingwood was a good win and so was West Coast - who were up and down but I don't mean to discredit a very solid effort.

Comfortable losses to Essendon and Sydney mid year, twice easily handled by Brisbane and then a loss to North when finals were still a distinct possibility. The good wins aren't enough to erase those losses.

I actually do think Frost alongside Stratton, Frawley and McEvoy will make you worse. Need to pick 3 and surround with good ball users there. 37 might be too far for Burgoyne but more than that I think last year he went from regular difference maker to just getting by in the side. Wingard maybe but I'll need to see it. Scully no, he's always fit, cut off both legs and he'll still be fit - he'll also still struggle to win contests and kick. Patton clearly is better than Roughy on no legs and/or no one but there's a reason GWS didn't even bother trying to get him up for finals.

I suspect Isaac Smith with continue to decline. Henderson won't have a career year worthy of AA. Puop will be unplayable. Stratton might be too.

It's not that I don't think Hawthorn won't be good this year. I probably have them in the 8 at this stage. Just not enough improvement from last year to go from outside the 8 to flag contenders. There's just not the big ticket recruits, or guys in that 50-70 game range ready to make the leap or some kind of drastic remodelling of the team with skills and speed that

Richmond - Nank (filled a big hole), Prestia + Caddy (former top 10 picks in their prime ready to go to another level with fresh coaching) + completely new game style with fresh running players and forward set up + Rance, Jack, Dusty, Cotchin in their prime as elite A graders.

Hawthorn I guess it might be Frost + Patton/Wingard + Where's the game style and where are the superstars?

That’s poor analysis.

 

[Hawk_francais]

I don’t know if Hawthorn can succeed while ‘deprioritising’ the draft. Conclusions borne out of our ‘2020 AFL Marsh Cup Premiership Season’ are just laughable. Save it.

 

[Pessimistic]

It seems likely that Hawthorn’s strategy was based on what some may call an arrogant assumption they’d be able to lure stars like coniglio, Whitfield, lynch etc in lieu of using top end picks to draft stars.

That obviously isn’t happening.

Will be interesting to see if they accept this hasn’t worked or double down.

Of concern is the injuries they already have this year and the fact they are mostly not to the older and more injury prone players on the list. Things could get very ugly if some of those players start to break down throughout the year as well, as is likely.

you turn contradictory statements into a negative? The injury thing could happen to any team. If nothing it’s disproving the older players are more injury prone

‘and as far as I know hawks have landed just Frawley and Vickery as free agents. Sure thy have gone after others, but haven’t other teams also? What differentiates the other teams strategies?

 

[old55]

Where is Henderson? He didn't play v MFC and he's not in the injured list? I was interested to see how Langdon and Tomlinson went against Smith, Henderson and Scully who are quality. They both played well.

 

[TylerDurden]

Where is Henderson? He didn't play v MFC and he's not in the injured list? I was interested to see how Langdon and Tomlinson went against Smith, Henderson and Scully who are quality. They both played well.

Was rested. Will play r1.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I don’t know if Hawthorn can succeed while ‘deprioritising’ the draft. Conclusions borne out of our ‘2020 AFL Marsh Cup Premiership Season’ are just laughable. Save it.

Yes fair point

I read somewhere under Clarkson that hawthorn has only ever won 2 or 3 pre season games which suggests how seriously he approaches it

 

[Maxabillions]

you turn contradictory statements into a negative? The injury thing could happen to any team. If nothing it’s disproving the older players are more injury prone

‘and as far as I know hawks have landed just Frawley and Vickery as free agents. Sure thy have gone after others, but haven’t other teams also? What differentiates the other teams strategies?

I think that plan a was to get some star free agents in and didn’t work so they were forced to go to plan b, getting discount players with bad injury histories.

It’s obviously a gamble that needs luck with injuries to pay off. You haven’t had luck so far this year, if players like Scully and Patton or older players start to have issues it could be a rough year.

 

[Slysh]

I think that plan a was to get some star free agents in and didn’t work so they were forced to go to plan b, getting discount players with bad injury histories.

It’s obviously a gamble that needs luck with injuries to pay off. You haven’t had luck so far this year, if players like Scully and Patton or older players start to have issues it could be a rough year.

I mean we have lost Hardwick for an extended period of time, haven't really had any other long term injuries (waiting for results on Lewis).

Bringing in Scully and Patton for pretty much nothing is also not the gamble that you are claiming it is.

 

[Roddy]

Yes fair point

I read somewhere under Clarkson that hawthorn has only ever won 2 or 3 pre season games which suggests how seriously he approaches it

2013 Pre-Season Ladder

1	Brisbane Lions	4	4	0	0	277	186	148.9	16	Grand Final
2	Carlton	4	3	1	0	310	219	141.6	12
3	Geelong	4	3	1	0	301	242	124.4	12
4	St Kilda	4	3	1	0	246	222	110.8	12
5	Richmond	4	3	1	0	245	225	108.9	12
6	Collingwood	4	3	1	0	228	222	102.7	12
7	North Melbourne	4	3	1	0	272	265	102.6	12
8	Essendon	4	2	2	0	271	164	165.2	8
9	Port Adelaide	4	2	2	0	260	222	117.1	8
10	Fremantle	4	2	2	0	264	271	97.4	8
11	Adelaide	4	2	2	0	239	309	77.3	8
12	West Coast	4	1	3	0	249	253	98.4	4
13	Sydney	4	1	3	0	199	232	85.8	4
14	Melbourne	4	1	3	0	195	235	83.0	4
15	Greater Western Sydney	4	1	3	0	209	281	74.4	4
16	Gold Coast	4	1	3	0	187	268	69.8	4
17	Western Bulldogs	4	1	3	0	160	312	51.3	4
18	Hawthorn	4	0	4	0	198	222	89.2	0

 

[TylerDurden]

I think that plan a was to get some star free agents in and didn’t work so they were forced to go to plan b, getting discount players with bad injury histories.

It’s obviously a gamble that needs luck with injuries to pay off. You haven’t had luck so far this year, if players like Scully and Patton or older players start to have issues it could be a rough year.

Both Scully and Patton look 100% at present. Would have to be a fresh injury, which could happen to any player really.

We went hard at Cogs, missed out, but now have significant cap space and early picks for next year. Plus we have NGA pick Connor Downie in this upcoming draft, who is a potential early pick.

Day and Maginess coming through from last year.

The re-tooling is happening on the run.

 

[Maxabillions]

I mean we have lost Hardwick for an extended period of time, haven't really had any other long term injuries (waiting for results on Lewis).

Bringing in Scully and Patton for pretty much nothing is also not the gamble that you are claiming it is.

It's a gamble bringing in injury prone players when you already have a lot of older players in your best 25 who you would think are more likely to breakdown or need to be managed. It could pay off, as you got Scully and Patton and some others cheaply, but it could also go pretty wrong. You have Hardwick and Impey injured, I thought there was a couple of others? Depth could be exposed.

 

[Maxabillions]

Both Scully and Patton look 100% at present. Would have to be a fresh injury, which could happen to any player really.

We went hard at Cogs, missed out, but now have significant cap space and early picks for next year. Plus we have NGA pick Connor Downie in this upcoming draft, who is a potential early pick.

Day and Maginess coming through from last year.

The re-tooling is happening on the run.

Yeah just feel like it won't take much for your depth to get exposed but who knows, we'll see what happens.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

My attitude on pre season games is as long as you don’t get absolutely slaughtered - showing you’re miles off the pace - then don’t worry too much about it. It’s not a great predictor.

 

[Tig017]

Both Scully and Patton look 100% at present. Would have to be a fresh injury, which could happen to any player really.

Delusional.

 

[Tig017]

That’s poor analysis.

You're a poor poster.

 

[Slysh]

Delusional.

Both have had a full pre season, played both pre season games and had no hiccups. In what way are they not 100% fit?

 

[Tig017]

Both have had a full pre season, played both pre season games and had no hiccups. In what way are they not 100% fit?

The same way players can never be 100% fit after 3 ACL injuries, just ask Daniel Menzel or Clay Smith. No, kicking a few goals in an intra club match doesn't change that.

Also I'm still not seeing Scully performing anywhere near the level he was at GWS pre-injury.