Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Boxhead_31]

Think we all know what the solution is

Yep, ban tanking

 

[hawkman]

Finishing Top 4 is fools gold sometimes.

Wingard is the type of player you bring in when you’re already going deep in September - not being knocked out in straight sets in your past couple of finals campaigns.

Scully was always a bit of hit and hope.

Mitchell going down definitely set you backwards, but his absence was only one of a number of factors why the Hawks went down in 2019.

Sure but at the 2018 off season it looked a solid strategy. We were also chasing Lynch as a FA. It didn't work and we wasted a couple of years in the end

I'm content with where the club is heading now. Backline is still solid to good. Lewis stepping up as a key forward makes the future look better there, another good tall forward would be good. Rucks with Reeves and Meek will be fine for the next few years.

Midfield is the issue but it has been the issue for 4 years even with Mitchell and O'Meara there. Midfield was 18th by most measures last year anyway

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Will be going to the elite end of the draft now, bottom 3 locks in 2023 and 2014.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

A few of my own thoughts:

• I still believe we were right to try not going full hard rebuild at the start (i.e. end of our threepeat). Geelong have now demonstrated it is indeed a strategy that can work - as criticised as we and then they were for trying (and Richmond are attempting exactly the same now).
• The reason it didn't work is multifaceted but it's not because we targetted Mitchell and JOM. They were both 23 at the time, most of our flag list were still young enough besides Lewis and Mitchell (who JOM and Tom were to replace), Hawthorn had finished top 4 and both players should have come at an affordable price (Mitchell because he was 5th banana and JOM cos he had missed 2 years of footy).
• Some of the bigger reasons it failed was Roughead got cancer at his peak and was never the same, Rioli unexpectedly retired at 27, we laned 0 of the free agents we targeted (some of whom it is believed made commitments to the club but circumstances changed) and GC 'took a stand' over O'Meara and we ended up paying way more than we should have (because we had committed and did not want to dissuade others from nominating us in future). This trade went to mediations and public appeals for some sense and ended up benefitting StKIlda more than GC anyway.
• Mistakes were definately made though and by the time we traded for Wingard (ironically to replace Rioli) the writing was on the wall and we again coughed up way too much having made the commitment. Other highly criticised trades (Patton, Scully, etc) I don't have an issue with even now as these players cost draft picks that were not even going to be used. They were essentially 'free' players to see if they could offer something.

In terms of now:

• I think it is right that we now look to move on some of our senior players (and look at a harder rebuild as we have been)
• I think it would have been advisable to trade one of O'Meara and Mitchell and not both in an environment with Gunston leaving, McEvoy and Shiels retiring and the sheer amount of senior experience we have lost
• Given the deals received - perhaps trading O'Meara and retaining Mitchell (i.e. we received fair compensation on O'Meara and poor comp on Mitchell) would have been a wiser play as many teams before us have demonstrated that moving on nearly all senior players is not a great strategy - BUT, the deal for Mitchell was a long way down the road it seems before the O'Meara stuff came to fruition, as was Mitchell's desire to get to Collingwood, so options at that stage may have been limited.
• Hawthorn fans may not love this view but for some time they have recommended getting rid of both, highlighting "our midfield is bad", "we may as well, it can't get any worse". On this point, I definitely disagree. Just because a midfield is struggling, doesn't mean it can't get any worse. Of course it can (see Melbourne 10 years ago). Our midfield's issue was more that Tom and JOM had little to no support whereas most teams have 5-7 rotations that were better than our 3rd best mid. Getting rid of your 2 best mids will of course have seen worse results. The good news is, Newcombe has come along, we have some recent draftees that look okay, we've brough in Amon and most importantly, we have a new gameplan that meant we were just as competitive after Mitchell and O'Meara saw less time in there. Still, we are very young (and vulnerable) and I recommend rotating Wingard (with Moore) back through there for his mature body/experience.

Will be a hard road back and need to make every post a winner to return to the latter weeks of finals from here.

 

[H00t]

The top up strategy needed everything to right.

Roughy’s cancer returning in 2016 destroyed our premiership hopes that year. And really should have stopped the top up strategy before it started. What I’m thankful for though is Roughy survived.

2018 was our lightning in a bottle year where we squeaked into the top 4 and if we were ever going to win it. This was the year. A number of players having career best years.

Sure Mitchell broke his leg in 2019 which ended any hope of winning. It didn’t really matter as so many players were on the decline that we never stood a chance.

Ultimately I can see why we went with the top up strategy. But a proper rebuild was always higher percentage play

 

[tonygeeks]

Someone else will have to step up and beat Geelong.

Mitchell will have sent away or retired everyone over the age of 28 other than Breust, Frost and Wingard.

All of Clarkos trades in other than Impey, Scrimshaw and Wingard gone.

Quite a clean out in 2 years.

Pretty funny he’s come in and done what most posters were saying you guys should do years ago

Fair to say to slightly different reactions

 

[Milanista28]

Interesting take from the AFLPA President

The AFL should know already what they intend to give the new Tassie team in terms of concessions/advantages, they should be telling the clubs now so they can properly plan for it.

 

[banzai]

A few of my own thoughts:

• I still believe we were right to try not going full hard rebuild at the start (i.e. end of our threepeat). Geelong have now demonstrated it is indeed a strategy that can work - as criticised as we and then they were for trying (and Richmond are attempting exactly the same now).

Of course it was worth a crack, you werent going to clear out Clarko straight after the 3 peat and he wasnt going to stick around for a full rebuild. I think what Richmond is doing is a bit different, Hawthorn brought in a lot of players from other clubs, Taranto and Hopper are the first 2 we've got since Lynch back in 2018 (Matt Parker midseason draft as well, but hes gone already). It may not work with us but if the worst that can happen is like Hawthorn it pushes a rebuild back 3-4 years then of course you have to have another shot at it with a premiership coach.

 

[blaisee]

If they get some good mids in and supplement that with 1-2 FAs it can turn in 4-5 years

Well that's even longer.

The last final Hawthorn won was the 2015 Grand Final, it is now 2022, I am saying best case they win a final in 2025, you are saying 2026/2027.

You might be right

 

[Gavin Excell]

I

Well that's even longer.

The last final Hawthorn won was the 2015 Grand Final, it is now 2022, I am saying best case they win a final in 2025, you are saying 2026/2027.

You might be right

misread your post
Thought you meant 10 years from now

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Of course it was worth a crack, you werent going to clear out Clarko straight after the 3 peat and he wasnt going to stick around for a full rebuild. I think what Richmond is doing is a bit different, Hawthorn brought in a lot of players from other clubs, Taranto and Hopper are the first 2 we've got since Lynch back in 2018 (Matt Parker midseason draft as well, but hes gone already). It may not work with us but if the worst that can happen is like Hawthorn it pushes a rebuild back 3-4 years then of course you have to have another shot at it with a premiership coach.

I think the similarities are that you are bringing in Taranto and Hopper shortly after your period of success, which is a bit like Hawthorn bringing in Mitchell and O'meara shortly after ours (both were actually younger that Taranto and Hopper now). Richmond aren't deciding - "Riewoldt, Martin and Cotchin are ageing - our run is over - we should go a hard rebuild and sell off any senior player worth something to drop down the ladder and stockpile draft picks for our next assault". Instead, you are 're-tooling', i.e. seeking to "rebuild on the run", remaining competitive and seeing if you can take another shot at a flag without spending years at the bottom. This was Hawthorn's exact strategy pretty much and what we were criticised for. Now Geelong took the same strategy and just won a flag which showed that it wasn't the approach that was incorrect (as was so often argued) but 'merely' the excecution.

 

[Boxhead_31]

The AFL should know already what they intend to give the new Tassie team in terms of concessions/advantages, they should be telling the clubs now so they can properly plan for it.

Will be similar to GWS one would think as the GC model didn't really work

 

[faible]

Will be similar to GWS one would think as the GC model didn't really work

GCS had horrible facilities and brought in bad leaders, plus have (and continue to) regularly botched their list management.

GWS didn't just have better concessions, they also got a lot more right in general.

 

[QuietB]

I think the similarities are that you are bringing in Taranto and Hopper shortly after your period of success, which is a bit like Hawthorn bringing in Mitchell and O'meara shortly after ours (both were actually younger that Taranto and Hopper now). Richmond aren't deciding - "Riewoldt, Martin and Cotchin are ageing - our run is over - we should go a hard rebuild and sell off any senior player worth something to drop down the ladder and stockpile draft picks for our next assault". Instead, you are 're-tooling', i.e. seeking to "rebuild on the run", remaining competitive and seeing if you can take another shot at a flag without spending years at the bottom. This was Hawthorn's exact strategy pretty much and what we were criticised for. Now Geelong took the same strategy and just won a flag which showed that it wasn't the approach that was incorrect (as was so often argued) but 'merely' the excecution.

I largely agree with this.

It has to be said though that Geelong's experience is completely different to Richmond and Hawthorns.

Geelong got a top 3 player in the league (Danger) and another top 10-20 player (Cameron) in the league. That is crazy.

As you rightly point out Hopper/taranto and Mitchell/JOM are not even close to being in the same stratosphere as Danger/Cameron.

Richmond will fail as well. Geelong will not happen again for a very long time.

 

[Ricketz]

Strap yourselves in

Hawthorn 2023 premiers

With Worpel holding the premiership cup as captain!! (Or waterboy)

Bookmark this. Hawthorn will push for the eight next year if they continue their development under Mitchell.

They took some impressive scalps and pushed quality teams like Carlton and Melbourne when they were in form. Forget JOM and Mitchell, they were largely irrelevant this year. Gunston is the only big loss.

A lot of people judging Hawthorn on their ladder position, but there is a lot to like about them.

And you know how much it hurts me to say that.

 

[Cursed Cat]

This is the Hawthorn way: when the going gets tough, the Hawks roll over and tank it.

 

[H00t]

Bookmark this. Hawthorn will push for the eight next year if they continue their development under Mitchell.

They took some impressive scalps and pushed quality teams like Carlton and Melbourne when they were in form. Forget JOM and Mitchell, they were largely irrelevant this year. Gunston is the only big loss.

A lot of people judging Hawthorn on their ladder position, but there is a lot to like about them.

And you know how much it hurts me to say that.

For all Tom Mitchell’s flaws he was vital to us beating you guys and Brisbane.

I expect we will take a backwards step with him out. How much will depend on how our youngsters come on.

I can’t see us pushing top 8. Where we will finish will depend a lot on our fixture and how lucky we get with running into teams that are in or out of form. We were pretty lucky this year. Not sure we will get the same luck next year.

 

[Ricketz]

For all Tom Mitchell’s flaws he was vital to us beating you guys and Brisbane.

I expect we will take a backwards step with him out. How much will depend on how our youngsters come on.

I can’t see us pushing top 8. Where we will finish will depend a lot on our fixture and how lucky we get with running into teams that are in or out of form. We were pretty lucky this year. Not sure we will get the same luck next year.

Geeze, not sure how luck came into the games I watched. Looked like some slick football when the boys were on.

 

[WilloTree]

Really like what Hawks did over the trade period.

Not using any draft currency and getting in 3 players is pretty good going.

They're also holding 2 good picks this year and added a 2nd and 4th next.

Hats off.

 

[H00t]

Geeze, not sure how luck came into the games I watched. Looked like some slick football when the boys were on.

When it worked it was slick football. But teams could also shut it down and we struggled. Our 2022 gameplan was not sustainable with the current team we have.

As enjoyable as it was to watch.

But we got lucky playing Roos twice but also playing Cats, Port and Suns (the second time) when we did. All were at a low ebb. Lions also were poor. Could have been easily 2-2 in those games rather than 4-0

 

[Sirlemsip]

Geeze, not sure how luck came into the games I watched. Looked like some slick football when the boys were on.

I can't see us doing well next year, we should be bottom 4.

However, after getting 15-20 more games into players like Lewis, Ward, Day, Moore, Jiath, etc through 2023 we should be in a position to surprise a few in 2024

 

[Ricketz]

I can't see us doing well next year, we should be bottom 4.

However, after getting 15-20 more games into players like Lewis, Ward, Day, Moore, Jiath, etc through 2023 we should be in a position to surprise a few in 2024

Yeah, fair enough - essentially I agree, your list has some good prospects.

 

[big footy cyril]

That myth was busted when he was rebuilding the dockers from 2016-19.

Just like the myth that the hawks won the premiership in 2022

I’d like to chat with you mate, but literally none of your comment makes sense to me..

 

[big footy cyril]

Is this still the quickest rebuild in AFL history?

Who knows? It’s just starting.

 

[big footy cyril]

Well that's even longer.

The last final Hawthorn won was the 2015 Grand Final, it is now 2022, I am saying best case they win a final in 2025, you are saying 2026/2027.

You might be right

We just have to keep winning one in each decade to keep our enviable record in tact. Something other clubs can only fantasize about