Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[matey]

Clarko from day 1 walking through the door has typified one thing ..... innovation. He will once again revolutionise football and change team strategies on how to build a list, without requiring to bottom out or go into the lottery using early draft picks.

We have not been spending a lot of money sending him overseas every year for no reason!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Until someone can sctually provide data showing a link between age and poor future performance I don't see the point of discussing it tbh.

The evidence from the last 15 or so years says the older your list is, the better future you have. Is there any difference when looking at sides fielded ?

The rule of thumb is that if you're an old team, you need to be winning most of the time. Old teams missing finals is a bad portent - I've posted plenty of stats on it, if a certain mod hasn't deleted them.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The rule of thumb is that if you're an old team, you need to be winning most of the time. Old teams missing finals is a bad portent - I've posted plenty of stats on it, if a certain mod hasn't deleted them.

Are you suggesting Abassi moderator doesn't take too kindly to the stats youve put forward.

 

[Furn2]

The rule of thumb is that if you're an old team, you need to be winning most of the time. Old teams missing finals is a bad portent - I've posted plenty of stats on it, if a certain mod hasn't deleted them.

I've never seen them.

All ive seen is that the older your list, the better you do now on average and the older your list the better you do in the future on average.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Are you suggesting Abassi moderator doesn't take too kindly to the stats youve put forward.

Not Abassi. Although he may not be a fan either.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I've never seen them.

All ive seen is that the older your list, the better you do now on average and the older your list the better you do in the future on average.

Most recent 26yo+ teams to miss finals:

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2019	Ha	9th
2019	Ad	11th
2017	Ha	12th	5th	9th
2012	St	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th	11th
2009	Sy	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th	2nd
2007	Fr	11th	14th	14th	6th	11th	6th
1989	Sy	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th	15th
1989	Br	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th	12th
1988	Sy	7th	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th
1988	Br	13th	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th
1983	Ri	10th	8th	8th	10th	14th	10th
1946	Fi	8th	3rd	7th	7th	5th	5th

 

[blue harvest]

Most recent 26yo+ teams to miss finals:

All I'm seeing in the modern era is within 6 years, 2 out of the 3 over26 sides played in GFs for 1 flag and 2 runner ups and the third side is StKilda.
Good signs for the Hawks!

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2019	Ha	9th
2019	Ad	11th
2017	Ha	12th	5th	9th
2012	St	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th	11th
2009	Sy	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th	2nd
2007	Fr	11th	14th	14th	6th	11th	6th

 

[Ron The Bear]

All I'm seeing in the modern era is within 6 years, 2 out of the 3 over26 sides played in GFs for 1 flag and 2 runner ups and the third side is StKilda.
Good signs for the Hawks!

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2019	Ha	9th
2019	Ad	11th
2017	Ha	12th	5th	9th
2012	St	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th	11th
2009	Sy	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th	2nd
2007	Fr	11th	14th	14th	6th	11th	6th

Harvey performed a (very competent) rebuild at Freo before being sacked.

Sydney is a special case due to COLA and other factors.

All of these teams including St.Kilda had a change of coach inside the five years.

I think the Hawthorn 2019 team has most parallels with North 2016, who fell into the finals and just missed the list.

 

[HairyO]

Hardwick and Lewis being injured didn’t help and should be back for round 2

And Impey within a few weeks of them.

 

[tige19]

How many “Young” teams win flags?

Our list dynamics are continuously changing, we will see guys like Burgoyne/Pop likely go after this season with Big Boy/Henderson/Frawley not long after. We have coverage in most areas with developing players and we always play a strong role in FA.

I think history suggests we’ll be ok.

 

[matey]

Interesting reading this morning ...... very comfortable ignoring the elite end of the draft. Wish we traded pick 6 for a quality player!

2006 AFL DRAFT

1. Bryce Gibbs (has played 266 games across two clubs)

2. Scott Gumbleton (played 35 games for Essendon)

3. Lachlan Hansen (played 151 games for North Melbourne)

4. Matthew Leuenberger (137 games across two clubs)

5. Travis Boak (has played 265 games for Port Adelaide)

6. Mitchell Thorp (played two games for Hawthorn)

 

[Furn2]

Most recent 26yo+ teams to miss finals:

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2019	Ha	9th
2019	Ad	11th
2017	Ha	12th	5th	9th
2012	St	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th	11th
2009	Sy	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th	2nd
2007	Fr	11th	14th	14th	6th	11th	6th
1989	Sy	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th	15th
1989	Br	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th	12th
1988	Sy	7th	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th
1988	Br	13th	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th
1983	Ri	10th	8th	8th	10th	14th	10th
1946	Fi	8th	3rd	7th	7th	5th	5th

And how does that compare with young teams that miss the finals on average ?

 

[WWSD]

Frawley, McEvoy and Henderson are all coming off career best seasons.

Burgoyne plays that “utility” type role where he can save his energy in games which allows him to keep playing at a high level.

What Hawthorn lacks is key position players.

 

[HairyO]

Frawley, McEvoy and Henderson are all coming off career best seasons.

Burgoyne plays that “utility” type role where he can save his energy in games which allows him to keep playing at a high level.

What Hawthorn lacks is key position players.

Like Patton?

 

[Leeda]

Drunk but not in denial.. it is a habit of mine that we take things slowly and with a seemingly revolutionary method..
and we keep our feet on the ground and our head in the clouds... take that dude.. we can do both..

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

Like Patton?

*good key position players.

 

[HairyO]

*good key position players.

According to BF those dont exist.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Frawley, McEvoy and Henderson are all coming off career best seasons.

Burgoyne plays that “utility” type role where he can save his energy in games which allows him to keep playing at a high level.

What Hawthorn lacks is key position players.

Certainly Mcevoy had a good season and probably flies under radar as one of best rucks in league. Can kick a goal too.

Frawley solid but strikes me as someone who could age very quickly

Henderson yes excellent season but a dime a dozen type

 

[4THAWN]

Certainly Mcevoy had a good season and probably flies under radar as one of best rucks in league. Can kick a goal too.

Frawley solid but strikes me as someone who could age very quickly

Henderson yes excellent season but a dime a dozen type

agree with 1st two points

But I hardly reckon Hendo is "dime a dozen".

obviously Brownlow votes are a bad measure but

only 2 wingmen with more brownlow votes in 2019 were Gaff(13) and Duncan(11) beating Hendo's 10. Next best Sidebottom (7) and M.Murphy (6)

 

[Gavin Excell]

He

agree with 1st two points

But I hardly reckon Hendo is "dime a dozen".

obviously Brownlow votes are a bad measure but

only 2 wingmen with more brownlow votes in 2019 were Gaff(13) and Duncan(11) beating Hendo's 10. Next best Sidebottom (7) and M.Murphy (6)

Yes as I said had a good season

Another way of putting it is he is far more replaceable than the other 2

 

[Pessimistic]

Most recent 26yo+ teams to miss finals:

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2019	Ha	9th
2019	Ad	11th
2017	Ha	12th	5th	9th
2012	St	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th	11th
2009	Sy	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th	2nd
2007	Fr	11th	14th	14th	6th	11th	6th
1989	Sy	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th	15th
1989	Br	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th	12th
1988	Sy	7th	7th	13th	12th	15th	15th
1988	Br	13th	10th	14th	15th	14th	13th
1983	Ri	10th	8th	8th	10th	14th	10th
1946	Fi	8th	3rd	7th	7th	5th	5th

Didn’t a poster recently quote the kangaroos? You guys need to get your stories straight before throwing aspersions around

 

[Pessimistic]

Certainly Mcevoy had a good season and probably flies under radar as one of best rucks in league. Can kick a goal too.

Frawley solid but strikes me as someone who could age very quickly

Henderson yes excellent season but a dime a dozen type

pure opinion “strikes me” etc

 

[Pessimistic]

I also see in ladder predictions from the usual suspects that up and coming teams like Carlton and Melbourne don’t rate many finals mentions either.

I found if you have two or more Consecutive seasons with sub 80% percentage, you are at least seven years off being a threat. And that’s when a team actually become a threat, it’s by no means guarteed.

Carlton have had more sub than over 80 recently. It’s University-Fitzroy territory. Huge respect to blues fans who’ve stuck fat.No other supporters have ever been asked to endure that
On my seven year rule, look out for these teams:
Team (sub 80%) first flag threat
GWS (2012-14) 2021
Melbourne (2012-15) 2022 (but in another slump maybe)
St Kilda (2014-15) 2022
Essendon (2015-16) 2023
Brisbane(2014-17) 2024
Carlton (2015-18) 2025
Fremantle(2016-18) 2025

other teams rarely have sub 80 these days especially non vic clubs and Geelong home ground advantage perhaps

then there’s the Gold Coast

 

[Ron The Bear]

And how does that compare with young teams that miss the finals on average ?

That would be looking at it the wrong way, attempting to compare two different populations.

Last 12 sides to make the finals at 26yo+, with five future seasons completed:

Year	Club	Ladder	Year + 1	Year + 2	Year + 3	Year + 4	Year + 5
2014	Fr	6th	3rd	16th	14th	14th	13th
2014	Ge	5th	10th	3rd	3rd	8th	3rd
2014	Sy	2nd	5th	2nd	5th	7th	15th
2013	Ha	1st	1st	1st	5th	12th	5th
2013	Sy	4th	2nd	5th	2nd	5th	7th
2011	Ge	1st	7th	3rd	5th	10th	3rd
2011	St	7th	9th	16th	18th	14th	9th
2010	Ge	3rd	1st	7th	3rd	5th	10th
2010	WB	4th	10th	15th	15th	14th	8th
2008	Sy	5th	12th	5th	6th	1st	4th
2007	Ad	8th	7th	5th	11th	14th	3rd
2007	Sy	7th	5th	12th	5th	6th	1st
2006	Ad	3rd	8th	7th	5th	11th	14th
2005	PA	6th	12th	2nd	13th	10th	10th

A lot more top four finishes in this table than the other one.

 

[threesixpio]

It's one game. You can't predict a trend based off one game.
First round is not the round you pick form off and this wasn't even a normal first round.
There were nice signs but don't go spending the next 3 months being cocky based off one game

...now you tell me