Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Ron The Bear]

We have the most, but 17 is BS. More like 13 and some current successful clubs have 10. 7-10 is about right

Any way if lists get cut dramatically the whole thing is turned on its head. See how that goes. project players will need to develop somewhere else.

I did this a while back. Brooksby, Burgoyne, Ceglar, Frawley, Frost, Gunston, Hartley, Henderson, Impey, McEvoy, Minchington, Mitchell, O'Meara, Patton, Scrimshaw, Scully, Wingard. 17.

Richmond by comparison has 5, following Dan Richardson's 2016 clanger about having recruited too many recycled players.

Yes, if they cut list sizes then it will even up the comp. Another unfortunate (for us) consequence of the virus.

 

[hk89]

This has all stemmed from thinking that the team was ready to win the flag now with just a few tweaks.

I don't think anyone at Hawthorn thought that. Rebuilding from 2016 was always going to take a while, and ditching 13 of your best 22 is very far from 'just a few tweaks'. We're still only 5 years from our last flag. Geelong are 9 and still haven't won a prelim in that time. Just because we haven't won a flag (or a final) since 2015 doesn't make the current strategy a failure. Rebuilding into a flag contender in 5 years is setting a very high bar. Our current ladder position is certainly disappointing, given how we finished at the end of 2019. I expected us to finish top 8 based on our late 2019 form. Hopefully we can salvage something out of the rest of the season.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

The point is that it hasn't worked. Hawthorn has more "recycled" players than any other club with 17. All it's done is kept them mid-table with a possibility of filling one of the last finals spots. "Competitive", and occasionally bobbing up with a win against good opposition, isn't enough for a team that has been one of the two oldest since 2016.

Hawthorn is shuffling the deck chairs and has done well to get this far without totally collapsing. But you can't turn an average older team into a premiership older team.

If the bolded was the case, then yes - you would be right. (Specifically about this year; drawing on recent years performances for trends)

The problem (for both sides of the argument) is that when Hawthorn get it together, they are comfortably in the mix with the other top sides. Great finish to last season (beating all prelim finalists in the run home)

Most mid-ladder teams beat up on the minnows, but aren't that competitive with the top-4. Hawthorn are capable of beating the top 4 easily, but also slumping to embarrassing defeat to the likes of Sydney or Melbourne. The same has been true pretty much every year since Clarkson took over. Slow/Horrible start to the season, gradual build with some impressive skins mid season, then come home like a steam-train. I think if you broke up our seasons into blocks of 5-6 games you would see a traceable theme.

We have also traditionally struggled at GWS stadium, SCG and other small/narrow grounds. Defensively we are fine, but offensively we seem to need space to work in. Our gameplan is built around the MCG and other full-size grounds - York Park in Launceston, and the new WA ground are the closest representation of the MCG, so I fully expected us to 'rebound' from our poor NSW performances. (I admit there were lingering doubts early in the 1st quarter of the Carlton game).

So far we are 3-0 at MCG/Optus and 1-5 at Kardinia/Marvel/Giants/SCG.


Rd.1 Brisbane @ MCG = Hawks play attacking, free running football, control the game after quarter time easily accounting for the Lions going away. Strong win against a contender.
Rd.2 Geelong @ GMHBO = Hawks fighting to a draw around the ground, but struggle to impact offensively. Cats make most of opportunities and then Hawks are completely destroyed in 2nd half, heads dropped. Embarrassing loss against a Contender.
Rd.3 Richmond @ MCG = Hawks dominated Richmond early, who were never in the game. Comfortable win against a genuine challenger.
Rd.4 North @ Marvel = Hawks struggled to overcome Goldstein's domination, but clearly the better side around the ground. Struggle to score. Stopped to a crawl after 3/4 time and the Kangaroos make a huge push late but fell short. Escaped with a win against (IMO) an inferior opponent.
Rd.5 GWS @ Giants = Two early injuries hurt (FF Lewis, HB Scrimshaw), but just didn't come to play - slow and stagnant with poor composure and no pressure intent. Unique travel and accommodation arrangements on the day of game are only excuses, but combined with the injuries perhaps help explain the 2nd half drop. Poor loss to a contender.
Rd.6 Collingwood @ Giants = Early injury to FF Patton hurt, and were blown away in the 1st quarter. Competitive loss to a contender.
Rd.7 Melbourne @ Giants = Early injury to our CHF O'Brien - (who is Carey like against the Demons, "almost" against anyone else), and were shown up against Gawn and Petracca. A Poor loss to a mid-table side.
Rd.8 Sydney @ SCG = First time in a month, no 1st quarter injury to our key forward! Competitive game until the "Papley incident", which ultimately proved the difference. Competitive loss but against a bottom 4 team.
Rd.9 Carlton @ Optus = Comfortable victory against bottom 4 team. An awful lot went wrong in the first 15 minutes of the game, but from then on the game was played on our terms.

Against Top-6 teams: (Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS) = 2-3 with two BAD losses.
Against Middle-6 Teams: (North, Melbourne) = 1-1
Aganist Bottom-6 Teams: (Sydney, Carlton) = 1-1

We should beat Freo, and as a Hawks fan I think we are an even money chance against Eagles. With more games against mid-table teams we are still "close enough if good enough", but the losses to Melbourne and especially Sydney may prove disastrous in a shortened season come finals.

If I was Hawks I'd be asking for games on the biggest grounds they can find and stay out of NSW.

 

[hk89]

"Competitive", and occasionally bobbing up with a win against good opposition, isn't enough for a team that has been one of the two oldest since 2016.

The issue you're ignoring is that our good wins tend to come in blocks. We go through blocks where we are capable of being competitive against top 4 sides. The problem is that we have blocks of the opposite. We need more depth more than we need a full rebuild to help even out the highs and lows, which have often been due to lack of injury coverage. This year I think we've been particularly unlucky with the consequences of COVID, more so than many others above us on the ladder.

You really think the ladder wouldn't be more flattering for us if we'd played 6 games at the MCG instead of 2, in the way that GC has played 6 at Metricon, and GWS 6 at GIANTS stadium? Sure other Vic teams have done it tough too, but I'd love to have played 4 MCG games like Saints have played Marvel 4 times. Or 4 MCG games like Richmond had. 4 for dogs at Marvel. 4 home ground games for Carlton. Even 3 home ground games like Cats, Pies and Bombers got before lockdown would have been an improvement. We got 2. Then they sent us to play 3 games in a row on a ground we've never won a game on. But it's all about our old list right?

But you can't turn an average older team into a premiership older team.

Of course you can. The age is a red herring. The question is whether you can turn an average team into a premiership team. Richmond did it in 2016 to 2017. Do you think the fact that your average age at the end of 2016 was in the mid 24s was a massive factor in why you won the flag the next year? Or do you think recruiting the likes of Prestia and Caddy and a change of game plan was a bigger factor? Of course it is more difficult if all your really good players and key contributors are about to fall off the age cliff in the following year, but that clearly isn't the case. Most of our old players have left or already fallen. When we comfortably beat Richmond earlier in the year, we had 1 player over 30 in our top 10 super coach scorers. It has been rarely more than a couple all season.

 

[PenAndPaper]

I did this a while back. Brooksby, Burgoyne, Ceglar, Frawley, Frost, Gunston, Hartley, Henderson, Impey, McEvoy, Minchington, Mitchell, O'Meara, Patton, Scrimshaw, Scully, Wingard. 17.

Richmond by comparison has 5, following Dan Richardson's 2016 clanger about having recruited too many recycled players.

Yes, if they cut list sizes then it will even up the comp. Another unfortunate (for us) consequence of the virus.

Just because they were at another club doesn't mean they were 'recycled'. From that list I will give you Ceglar, Brooksby, Hartley, Henderson & Minchington as they were all delisted by their former clubs but the other's are not 'recycled'.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The issue you're ignoring is that our good wins tend to come in blocks. We go through blocks where we are capable of being competitive against top 4 sides. The problem is that we have blocks of the opposite. We need more depth more than we need a full rebuild to help even out the highs and lows, which have often been due to lack of injury coverage. This year I think we've been particularly unlucky with the consequences of COVID, more so than many others above us on the ladder.

You really think the ladder wouldn't be more flattering for us if we'd played 6 games at the MCG instead of 2, in the way that GC has played 6 at Metricon, and GWS 6 at GIANTS stadium? Sure other Vic teams have done it tough too, but I'd love to have played 4 MCG games like Saints have played Marvel 4 times. Or 4 MCG games like Richmond had. 4 for dogs at Marvel. 4 home ground games for Carlton. Even 3 home ground games like Cats, Pies and Bombers got before lockdown would have been an improvement. We got 2. Then they sent us to play 3 games in a row on a ground we've never won a game on. But it's all about our old list right?

Which games would Hawthorn have won elsewhere? No, don't give me Sydney. Oldest team should beat the youngest anywhere.

You're clutching at straws. In denial.

Of course you can. The age is a red herring.

Name me one senior team that was a non-finalist leading up to a flag.

The question is whether you can turn an average team into a premiership team. Richmond did it in 2016 to 2017.

Richmond was a young-ish team building up. I'm not going to pretend I saw it coming.

Hawthorn has nowhere to go. They're at the ceiling.

Why do you think it is that Hawthorn has an occasional good win but can't produce that form consistently?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Just because they were at another club doesn't mean they were 'recycled'. From that list I will give you Ceglar, Brooksby, Hartley, Henderson & Minchington as they were all delisted by their former clubs but the other's are not 'recycled'.

Recycled as in developed/mature, who can come in and play right away. As in alternative to the draft.

 

[hk89]

Which games would Hawthorn have won elsewhere?

Pies, GWS and Cats based on the fact that our most recent games against all 3 of those at the MCG last year were wins. The missing piece of our MCG dominance was Tigers and Lions, and we achieved that this year. Would have liked our chances against Sydney at the G too. COVID has robbed us of top spot.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Look, these are the oldest premiership teams (h&a average) of the last 50 years.

Avg Age	Club	Year	Year-3	Year-2	Year-1	Premiers
26.82	Haw	2015	2nd	1st	1st	1st
26.68	Geel	2011	2nd	1st	3rd	1st
26.30	Bris	2003	5th	1st	1st	1st
26.11	Haw	1989	1st	2nd	1st	1st
26.11	Carl	1995	7th	2nd	5th	1st
26.01	Haw	2013	7th	3rd	2nd	1st
25.98	Syd	2012	12th	5th	6th	1st
25.91	Carl	1982	1st	4th	1st	1st
25.85	Haw	2014	3rd	2nd	1st	1st
25.82	P.A.	2004	5th	3rd	4th	1st
25.78	Haw	1991	1st	1st	5th	1st
25.73	W.C.	2018	2nd	7th	6th	1st
25.71	Haw	1988	2nd	1st	2nd	1st
25.65	Geel	2009	10th	1st	2nd	1st
25.64	N.M.	1975	12th	6th	2nd	1st
25.63	Ess	1985	5th	2nd	1st	1st
25.62	N.M.	1996	5th	3rd	3rd	1st
25.53	Carl	1981	4th	1st	4th	1st
25.52	Haw	1986	1st	2nd	2nd	1st
25.48	Bris	2002	4th	5th	1st	1st

The only two you could accuse of coming from nowhere are North 1975 (a true outlier as they were the youngest team in 1972-73 and the oldest in 1975 thanks to the 10-year rule), and Sydney 2012 (COLA).

Hawthorn at 27.58 in 2020 and coming off 12th-5th-9th-X is such a highly improbable contender any time soon as to be laughable.

 

[Scotland]

Which games would Hawthorn have won elsewhere? No, don't give me Sydney. Oldest team should beat the youngest anywhere.

You're clutching at straws. In denial.

It's been an odd couple of pages. Hawthorn would probably be better performed without COVID (like every team, except Adelaide) but Richmond are 3-1 since leaving Vic, Geelong are 2-2 and weren't far off being 3-1, Port went 4-1 in Qld, Saints are 3-1 since they left... better teams are winning.

 

[hk89]

Look, these are the oldest premiership teams (h&a average) of the last 50 years.

You have an unhealthy age obsession, and are too myopic to realise why it makes no sense.

A bunch of teams have also won without even being in the 8. There is no reason to think an average old team can't become a good old team in the current environment. This is much easier to do now that we have much more flexible player movement rules. The lack of this type of thing happening in the historical data - with completely different player movement rules - is completely irrelevant. You can't look past your age obsession to see why things have changed, and why more teams are going for on the run rebuilds rather than completely rebuilding since free agency kicked in. Free agency makes your entire data set a moot point. You might as well point to Hawthorn players' lack of ability to exploit the drop kick as evidence of why they can't succeed in the current competition.

 

[Pessimistic]

Look, these are the oldest premiership teams (h&a average) of the last 50 years.

Avg Age	Club	Year	Year-3	Year-2	Year-1	Premiers
26.82	Haw	2015	2nd	1st	1st	1st
26.68	Geel	2011	2nd	1st	3rd	1st
26.30	Bris	2003	5th	1st	1st	1st
26.11	Haw	1989	1st	2nd	1st	1st
26.11	Carl	1995	7th	2nd	5th	1st
26.01	Haw	2013	7th	3rd	2nd	1st
25.98	Syd	2012	12th	5th	6th	1st
25.91	Carl	1982	1st	4th	1st	1st
25.85	Haw	2014	3rd	2nd	1st	1st
25.82	P.A.	2004	5th	3rd	4th	1st
25.78	Haw	1991	1st	1st	5th	1st
25.73	W.C.	2018	2nd	7th	6th	1st
25.71	Haw	1988	2nd	1st	2nd	1st
25.65	Geel	2009	10th	1st	2nd	1st
25.64	N.M.	1975	12th	6th	2nd	1st
25.63	Ess	1985	5th	2nd	1st	1st
25.62	N.M.	1996	5th	3rd	3rd	1st
25.53	Carl	1981	4th	1st	4th	1st
25.52	Haw	1986	1st	2nd	2nd	1st
25.48	Bris	2002	4th	5th	1st	1st

The only two you could accuse of coming from nowhere are North 1975 (a true outlier as they were the youngest team in 1972-73 and the oldest in 1975 thanks to the 10-year rule), and Sydney 2012 (COLA).

Hawthorn at 27.58 in 2020 and coming off 12th-5th-9th-X is such a highly improbable contender any time soon as to be laughable.

yet hawthorn will secure another flag before 12-13 -14 -15 of the current 18 teams. look at history, I see you love it.

 

[Ron The Bear]

It's been an odd couple of pages. Hawthorn would probably be better performed without COVID (like every team, except Adelaide) but Richmond are 3-1 since leaving Vic, Geelong are 2-2 and weren't far off being 3-1, Port went 4-1 in Qld, Saints are 3-1 since they left... better teams are winning.

Of their remaining games I'd probably give them Adelaide, Freo (this week) & Gold Coast. Line ball Essendon & Dogs. Up against it v St.Kilda, Port and WC.

8-10, 9-9 or 10-8 is about where they're at. Mid-table.

 

[Ron The Bear]

yet hawthorn will secure another flag before 12-13 -14 -15 of the current 18 teams. look at history, I see you love it.

7/17 have played in a GF since Hawthorn's last. Maybe if you get Dank to Dingley. Or a club falls over and there's a merger.

 

[Scotland]

Of their remaining games I'd probably give them Adelaide, Freo (this week) & Gold Coast. Line ball Essendon & Dogs. Up against it v St.Kilda, Port and WC.

8-10, 9-9 or 10-8 is about where they're at. Mid-table.

They were a 7-12 team last year and are a 7-12 team this year, IMO. Which is fine, but the recruiting has absolutely targeted the short term.

Hawks vs Freo this week will be interesting, almost double the experience between the two sides and that is with Mundy and Fyfe both playing on the weekend. Dockers have let Neale and Brad Hill go the last two years to bring in Hogan and have used 8 first round picks in 4 years. The two teams aren't that far apart and right now they should be.

 

[hk89]

but Richmond are 3-1 since leaving Vic,

Only played one opponent on the opponent's home ground, and lost. Lost to us on MCG too.

Geelong are 2-2 and weren't far off being 3-1

Only team they beat on the opposition home turf was Freo. So one better than us when having to play
away against home teams during the Hub.

Port went 4-1 in Qld, Saints are 3-1 since they left...

Port have done very well. Probably the best performed team from a COVID impact point of view. Saints did well
at AO beating both Port and Crows, but you'd have expected them to also win both games against Swans and Dockers
playing them aware from Perth and SCG, but managed to lose to Freo.

No doubt those teams travelled out of their state better than us, but how many of them got sent to play 3 of their 4 games on an oval they'd never
won on?

Will be interesting to see how our next two games go at Optus. Freo have had some ordinary losses, but a couple of decent
wins against Saints and Pies, so not really sure how to rate them. At least we should start with some more confidence next week, but
the first quarter against Carlton was still fairly ugly and Carlton have a rep for falling asleep so not really sure if we've turned a corrner
yet. Definitely looked better with Breust and Impey back.

 

[Scotland]

We've played HAAAHHAHH with two of those home games in Qld. Bizarre thing to get worked up about. No clubs except Brisbane and Gold Coast have 'won' the fixture to this point.

 

[WWSD]

We've played HAAAHHAHH with two of those home games in Qld. Bizarre thing to get worked up about. No clubs except Brisbane and Gold Coast have 'won' the fixture to this point.

Hawthorn always get screwed when it comes to the fixture. That’s a fact. The only positive I take out of this is the easy part is coming. lol

 

[hk89]

We've played HAAAHHAHH with two of those home games in Qld. Bizarre thing to get worked up about. No clubs except Brisbane and Gold Coast have 'won' the fixture to this point.

True, but some have lost the fixture relative to others, and we are clearly one of those. 2 games at our home ground in 9 rounds, who has done worse?

 

[Scotland]

Freo started with an away game in Melbourne then 5 games in a row in Qld. Took them until Round 7 to play in Perth. Competitive in all games, went 2-3 in the Qld hub and now only back playing in Perth because COVID has exploded in Victoria. Under normal circumstances would Freo be a contender?

 

[hk89]

Freo started with an away game in Melbourne then 5 games in a row in Qld. Took them until Round 7 to play in Perth. Competitive in all games, went 2-3 in the Qld hub and now only back playing in Perth because COVID has exploded in Victoria. Under normal circumstances would Freo be a contender?

A simple no would have sufficed. Freo have had one more home ground game than us, and one less win, so no I don't think they'd be a contender, but my question was has anyone had less home ground games than us, and you respond with an example of a team that has one more than us. Freo had a pretty rough start on the road, and didn't get a win until round 5 , and that was against the bottom team. I'd agree with you that they are an example of a team that appears to have also lost the COVID dice roll so far. I still don't think they'll have lost as badly as we have once the season is done.

Our issue is that the AFL did stuff like gave us a home game at Marvel and a game against Geelong in Geelong which without COVID would have been at the MCG. Then Victoria was completely screwedCOVID wise, meaning we'll never get to a reasonable number of home ground games, and those Vic teams that had a bunch of home ground games first up will have a continued advantage against us fixture wise. The best we can hope for now is that we stay in Perth for a while given the dimensions of Optus seem to be the closest match for the MCG. A home ground crowd would of course be nice, but we will likely not be getting any more of those for the year either. I believe we had 0 games scheduled at GIANTS stadium in the original fixture, and we end up with 3 on a ground we've never won at. The only thing the AFL could have done to screw us harder was to keep us in Sydney for longer.

I'm somewhat worried about next week against Freo, that tough start has given them a ladder position that probably makes them look worse than they are. They've beaten saints and pies in the last 4 weeks, and while solid losses, were not completely blown away by WC and Cats. Whereas we've only beaten Carlton in the last 5 weeks, and were deplorable in all of our losses. On paper you could easily argue they should go in favourites.

 

[matey]

In an unprecedented season Port, Lions, Tigers and WC peaking too early. Will be an outsider, a team that will finish in the bottom half of the top 8 will salute ...... Clarko the master is timing it beautifully

 

[Ricmel]

Rebuilding into a flag contender in 5 years is setting a very high bar. Our current ladder position is certainly disappointing, given how we finished at the end of 2019. I expected us to finish top 8 based on our late 2019 form. Hopefully we can salvage something out of the rest of the season.

Turning into a flag contender in "5 years" would in fact be outstanding. But Hawks recruiting over the last 4 or 5 years certainly suggests the club still believed they were a contender requiring a few top ups.

Recruiting Mitchell I can understand - you get 8 - 10 years out of him and build a midfield around him. O'Meara did not cost much and also could be part of the next good Hawks team.

But players like Scully, Wingard and Patton - unless you think Hawks are a contender in 2020 - 22, it is unlikely any of these will be critical to another flag tilt and they are really just limiting the opportunity to develop talent. At this stage, given the lack of draft options and reducing "destination" appeal, you would think Hawks are currently a few years off being a genuine contender again. There are a pack of clubs - Port, Carlton, Bombers, Saints, Dogs, GC, Brisbane, GWS, Pies - that looks set to be regular finals participants over the next 3 - 4 years and I think Hawks will struggle to catch up in that period.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Turning into a flag contender in "5 years" would in fact be outstanding. But Hawks recruiting over the last 4 or 5 years certainly suggests the club still believed they were a contender requiring a few top ups.

Recruiting Mitchell I can understand - you get 8 - 10 years out of him and build a midfield around him. O'Meara did not cost much and also could be part of the next good Hawks team.

But players like Scully, Wingard and Patton - unless you think Hawks are a contender in 2020 - 22, it is unlikely any of these will be critical to another flag tilt and they are really just limiting the opportunity to develop talent. At this stage, given the lack of draft options and reducing "destination" appeal, you would think Hawks are currently a few years off being a genuine contender again. There are a pack of clubs - Port, Carlton, Bombers, Saints, Dogs, GC, Brisbane, GWS, Pies - that looks set to be regular finals participants over the next 3 - 4 years and I think Hawks will struggle to catch up in that period.

maybe they had a few strong yeses from FAs who would have filled the remaining holes and they were scuppered at the last minute by secret ambassadorial payments ?

 

[PenAndPaper]

Turning into a flag contender in "5 years" would in fact be outstanding. But Hawks recruiting over the last 4 or 5 years certainly suggests the club still believed they were a contender requiring a few top ups.

Recruiting Mitchell I can understand - you get 8 - 10 years out of him and build a midfield around him. O'Meara did not cost much and also could be part of the next good Hawks team.

But players like Scully, Wingard and Patton - unless you think Hawks are a contender in 2020 - 22, it is unlikely any of these will be critical to another flag tilt and they are really just limiting the opportunity to develop talent. At this stage, given the lack of draft options and reducing "destination" appeal, you would think Hawks are currently a few years off being a genuine contender again. There are a pack of clubs - Port, Carlton, Bombers, Saints, Dogs, GC, Brisbane, GWS, Pies - that looks set to be regular finals participants over the next 3 - 4 years and I think Hawks will struggle to catch up in that period.

You do realise that Wingard is the same age as O'Meara & Mitchell, while Patton is only a year older, right?

So if by your wording that O'Meara could be in our next good team, all of them could be as well.