Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Ricmel]

maybe they had a few strong yeses from FAs who would have filled the remaining holes and they were scuppered at the last minute by secret ambassadorial payments ?

Maybe. There is always luck involved. But I think this thread is more about the broad strategy rather than play by play trades.

I must say, Hawks have since the mid 70s always been very active recruiting players from interstate and other clubs. And you have to say based on results they have done it outstandingly well.

But I think where the game has shifted on them in the last 5 or 6 years is simply how ready national draft players are to play AFL. Matt Rowell is an extreme example but there are lots of examples now of draft picks coming into clubs and having big first and second year impact - Rowell, Rozee, the Kings, Rankine, Walsh, Georgiades, Stephenson, Hopper etc etc.

Draft science has improved dramatically and TAC football is heavily overseen by the AFL so the TAC players are playing AFL style footy in their undrer age years, They come in very ready.

I think Hawks have been late to pick up this shift.

 

[Ricmel]

You do realise that Wingard is the same age as O'Meara & Mitchell, while Patton is only a year older, right?

So if by your wording that O'Meara could be in our next good team, all of them could be as well.

Yeah I do. But I don't think Wingard is a structurally important player and as much as I wish all the best for Patton, I really hope he makes it, the questions that hung over him would have made it a safer bet to look for a KPF via draft. I'm not so much making commentary about their age - more about their ability to either make the Hawks a contender now or to be playing impactful enough footy in 4 or 5 years time. I don't think Wingard or Patton will do either. I think Mitchell will and I think O'Meara is worth the risk. He has probably more than paid off already.

 

[Pessimistic]

Maybe. There is always luck involved. But I think this thread is more about the broad strategy rather than play by play trades.

I must say, Hawks have since the mid 70s always been very active recruiting players from interstate and other clubs. And you have to say based on results they have done it outstandingly well.

But I think where the game has shifted on them in the last 5 or 6 years is simply how ready national draft players are to play AFL. Matt Rowell is an extreme example but there are lots of examples now of draft picks coming into clubs and having big first and second year impact - Rowell, Rozee, the Kings, Rankine, Walsh, Georgiades, Stephenson, Hopper etc etc.

Draft science has improved dramatically and TAC football is heavily overseen by the AFL so the TAC players are playing AFL style footy in their undrer age years, They come in very ready.

I think Hawks have been late to pick up this shift.

They simply haven't had those picks to select those players. Only option would have been to trade out players who clearly didn't want to go - and hawks have been blasted in here also for trading out Burton.
That seems to be the constant, anything to criticize hawthorn.

 

[Ricmel]

They simply haven't had those picks to select those players. Only option would have been to trade out players who clearly didn't want to go - and hawks have been blasted in here also for trading out Burton.
That seems to be the constant, anything to criticize hawthorn.

There is also a group of supporters that cling like limpets to the faith that their club can do no wrong.

It is way too complicated to try and unwind Hawthorns trading the period 2015 - 2019. What we can say was there was certainly a path for Hawthorn to have picked up Aaron Naughton in 2017 (if we were just focussing on KPFs). But broadly Hawks traded draft picks for established players in this period and whilst that has worked for them in the past, right now it does not seem to have paid off

 

[Pessimistic]

There is also a group of supporters that cling like limpets to the faith that their club can do no wrong.

It is way too complicated to try and unwind Hawthorns trading the period 2015 - 2019. What we can say was there was certainly a path for Hawthorn to have picked up Aaron Naughton in 2017 (if we were just focussing on KPFs). But broadly Hawks traded draft picks for established players in this period and whilst that has worked for them in the past, right now it does not seem to have paid off

Naughton wasnt in your list. St kilda took Hunter Clarke with the pick they traded form the hawks the year before. They ended up paying more than they expected for Omeara and Wigard. to me thats just more evidence theres competition to obtain these players, evidence that 'topping up' isnt such a heinous crime in your actual list management profession.

And can do no wrong? Thorp, Dowler, Vickery, Orourke, Lovell Hartung suggests otherwise. But 6 howlers 05-16 is not too bad.

Just Hypothetical but Pendlebury, Selwood, Toby McClean, McStay best alternatives

 

[Ricmel]

Naughton wasnt in your list. St kilda took Hunter Clarke with the pick they traded form the hawks the year before. They ended up paying more than they expected for Omeara and Wigard. to me thats just more evidence theres competition to obtain these players, evidence that 'topping up' isnt such a heinous crime in your actual list management profession

If Hawks had of held onto 2017 pick 10 and second rounder, they could have traded or at least been in the hunt for Naughton (pick 9). Or there are any number of mids there to be picked up.

It is really not the point I am trying to make. As I said, we can't unwind previous years but certainly had the Hawks participated more actively in the draft during that period they would likely have two very good under 22s on the list at the moment.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

If Hawks had of held onto 2017 pick 10 and second rounder, they could have traded or at least been in the hunt for Naughton (pick 9). Or there are any number of mids there to be picked up.

It is really not the point I am trying to make. As I said, we can't unwind previous years but certainly had the Hawks participated more actively in the draft during that period they would likely have two very good under 22s on the list at the moment.

Or two bog average players battling for a spot in the team, using specific players to try and paint a picture is impossible to do.

 

[hk89]

Turning into a flag contender in "5 years" would in fact be outstanding. But Hawks recruiting over the last 4 or 5 years certainly suggests the club still believed they were a contender requiring a few top ups.

I don't see it that way. I think we saw that we were exiting our core midfield group and wanted a new one, and wanted it now. The age of the midfield we recruited, gives us another 3-4 years to recruit the rest of the pieces.

But players like Scully, Wingard and Patton - unless you think Hawks are a contender in 2020 - 22, it is unlikely any of these will be critical to another flag tilt and they are really just limiting the opportunity to develop talent.

Nonsense. Wingard is younger than Mitchell who you've just said makes sense because we'll have him for 8+ years. Patton is pretty much exactly the same age as Mitchell. Scully may or may not be around when we are in a position to seriously compete, but provides a couple of years of coverage when Henderson and Smith retire, giving us time to develop or recruit/draft another outside mid.

Just because you make some short term decisions doesn't mean the club doesn't have an eye to the future as well. There is no reason not to pick up players that help your competitiveness right now , especially if they cost you very little like Scully and Patton did. Losing cultures at Melbourne and Carlton shows what happens when you only care about the future, and think running a shit load of losses through your kids will not hamper them mentally down the track.

 

[Pessimistic]

If Hawks had of held onto 2017 pick 10 and second rounder, they could have traded or at least been in the hunt for Naughton (pick 9). Or there are any number of mids there to be picked up.

It is really not the point I am trying to make. As I said, we can't unwind previous years but certainly had the Hawks participated more actively in the draft during that period they would likely have two very good under 22s on the list at the moment.

about 40% of draftees become 10 year players. Hawthorn is achieving that even without having access to early picks most years

when you trade for a known quantity (right player, right role etc) you maybe only get 40% of the ten years. if you get more than that, you'll likely pay more than a draft pick

Theres no right answer, You just go into a trade or a draft with your eyes open.

 

[Pessimistic]

Scully and Henderson. Hawks could have reasonably expected Hill and Rioli have played longer, and Hartung to have worked out better. Theres a bit of retrofitting there

 

[PenAndPaper]

Yeah I do. But I don't think Wingard is a structurally important player and as much as I wish all the best for Patton, I really hope he makes it, the questions that hung over him would have made it a safer bet to look for a KPF via draft. I'm not so much making commentary about their age - more about their ability to either make the Hawks a contender now or to be playing impactful enough footy in 4 or 5 years time. I don't think Wingard or Patton will do either. I think Mitchell will and I think O'Meara is worth the risk. He has probably more than paid off already.

I agree with most of this but Wingard is probably one of our most important players structurally due to his ability to play fwd/mid & providing some X factor. I do have my doubts on Patton but we do have Lewis & drafted Jeka as young developing KPF but Jek is definitely a couple years away still.

 

[NeXus Nick]

The problem with Hawthorn is that their coach is a sooky lala.

 

[TylerDurden]

The problem with Hawthorn is that there coach is a sooky lala.

And the GOAT.

 

[stfan]

St kilda took Hunter Clarke with the pick they traded form the hawks the year before.

The trade was the Saints pick 10 and 68 in exchange for Hawk's first round pick and 2016 picks 23 and 36.

So St Kilda gained in total from that trade Long and Battle in the same year and Hunter Clark the following year. 105 games played and counting with all 3 currently being first 22 players.

Pick 68 was on traded by the Hawks as steak knives in the Jordan Lewis trade twice and ended up being Dylan Clarke at the Dons who has done little

 

[Pessimistic]

The problem with Hawthorn is that there coach is a sooky lala.

"Hawthorn Problems" (Threepeat screwed our list management)

 

[Pessimistic]

The trade was the Saints pick 10 and 68 in exchange for Hawk's first round pick and 2016 picks 23 and 36.

So St Kilda gained in total from that trade Long and Battle in the same year and Hunter Clark the following year. 105 games played and counting with all 3 currently being first 22 players.

Pick 68 was on traded by the Hawks as steak knives in the Jordan Lewis trade twice and ended up being Dylan Clarke at the Dons who has done little

Hawthorn 2016

T Mitchell O'Meara Vickery fa

Morrison 74 M Lewis 76

Hanrahan 14 Cousins 46 Nash B

 

[stfan]

Hawthorn 2016

T Mitchell O'Meara Vickery fa

Morrison 74 M Lewis 76

Hanrahan 14 Cousins 46 Nash B

My mistake then, I did not realise that you gained all of those players with just the one trade, and effectively the one first round pick. Thought it is not the case is it.

2016 was a pretty handy rebuilding year for the Saints. All bargain buys

Jack Steele

Hunter Clark

Josh Battle

Ben Long

Rowan Marshall (Rookie)

Koby Stevens (retired due to concussion)

Ed Phillips

 

[WWSD]

Scully and Henderson. Hawks could have reasonably expected Hill and Rioli have played longer, and Hartung to have worked out better. Theres a bit of retrofitting there

Rioli retiring at 28 has really hurt. Hawthorn still haven’t found a replacement for him yet. Hopefully there’s some quality small forwards available in this years draft. It’s the biggest deficiency on the Hawks list at the moment.

Here’s what I’m hoping plays out in this years draft...

First pick: best available inside midfielder
Second pick: best available key position player
Third pick: Conor Downie (NGA)
Fourth pick: small forward
Fifth pick: small forward

 

[WWSD]

My mistake then, I did not realise that you gained all of those players with just the one trade, and effectively the one first round pick. Thought it is not the case is it.

2016 was a pretty handy rebuilding year for the Saints. All bargain buys

Jack Steele

Hunter Clark

Josh Battle

Ben Long

Rowan Marshall (Rookie)

Koby Stevens (retired due to concussion)

Ed Phillips

Who is rated higher at St Kilda. Gresham or Billings?

 

[stfan]

Who is rated higher at St Kilda. Gresham or Billings?

Billings.

Gresham is flashier. Billings just gets his job done.

 

[Spook]

My mistake then, I did not realise that you gained all of those players with just the one trade, and effectively the one first round pick. Thought it is not the case is it.

2016 was a pretty handy rebuilding year for the Saints. All bargain buys

Jack Steele

Hunter Clark

Josh Battle

Ben Long

Rowan Marshall (Rookie)

Koby Stevens (retired due to concussion)

Ed Phillips

Off topic sorry Mods.

Just Steele and Marshall would make 2016 a very successfully recruiting year for the Saints .

Does battle play mid or high forward? Possessions aren’t huge but does good things with the ball. Gets meters, Kicks goals and has good efficiency.

Also I consider Hill, Ryder, Jones and Butler the best ever 1 season trade success. exactly what the saints needed. Even though Hill’s form is down a bit we all know his quality. Ryder is the perfect support for a young Marshall, They are both dynamic, goal kickers and give flexibility To the ruck/forward/in the hole positions. Jones is the hard inside mid you needed, actually he can play both side and outside. And Butler kicks goals and lays tackles, that’s all you want from a small forward.
Most importantly the Saints have a solid experienced coach now. it’s Good to see the Saints looking good after 5 of the last 7 years in the bottom 5..... They deserve it because making good decisions isn‘t luck and most importantly to me, they play great to watch footy

 

[Randy Campbell]

Rioli retiring at 28 has really hurt. Hawthorn still haven’t found a replacement for him yet. Hopefully there’s some quality small forwards available in this years draft. It’s the biggest deficiency on the Hawks list at the moment.

Here’s what I’m hoping plays out in this years draft...

First pick: best available inside midfielder
Second pick: best available key position player
Third pick: Conor Downie (NGA)
Fourth pick: small forward
Fifth pick: small forward

There is no replacement.

 

[stfan]

Off topic sorry Mods.

Just Steele and Marshall would make 2016 a very successfully recruiting year for the Saints .

Does battle play mid or high forward? Possessions aren’t huge but does good things with the ball. Gets meters, Kicks goals and has good efficiency.

Last season with injuries to key backs he played most of the year at CHB and did very well.

This year with Howard and Carlisle both available and fully fit, has been forward and wing and general utility in the forward line and midfield. In 2018 his 6 games were mainly as a forward.

Rats sees him as a utility player. His tank is Riewoldt like and so can run all day.

Also I consider Hill, Ryder, Jones and Butler the best ever 1 season trade success. exactly what the saints needed.

Don't forget Howard. Ryder was the "steak knives" in gaining Howard. We now have a back 6 in 2020 where all are good both offensively or defensively. Prior to 2020 players were often one of the other.

Even though Hill’s form is down a bit we all know his quality. Ryder is the perfect support for a young Marshall, They are both dynamic, goal kickers and give flexibility To the ruck/forward/in the hole positions. Jones is the hard inside mid you needed, actually he can play both side and outside. And Butler kicks goals and lays tackles, that’s all you want from a small forward.
Most importantly the Saints have a solid experienced coach now. it’s Good to see the Saints looking good after 5 of the last 7 years in the bottom 5..... They deserve it because making good decisions isn‘t luck and most importantly to me, they play great to watch footy

Yes Rats is our most important "recruit".

Many years of poor and often down right odd recruiting, but 2016 St Kilda turned the corner. Though 2015 did net both Carlisle and Gresham, but with Freeman trade a bust.

PS. We still lack one true gun inside mid. Though Steele is hitting his straps, but he needs a gun buddy in addition to Gresham as a sidekick.

 

[Draft Pick]

How many Premierships have those players won?

That’s like me simply being happy the Kings have better youth than the Lakers.

Would you take those Bulldog players over the current young Hawthorn players though. That is the point of the post.

Of course most players 23 years and under haven’t been involved in a premiership.

 

[Pessimistic]

Last season with injuries to key backs he played most of the year at CHB and did very well.

This year with Howard and Carlisle both available and fully fit, has been forward and wing and general utility in the forward line and midfield. In 208 his 6 games were mainly as a forward.

Rats sees him as a utility player. His tank is Riewoldt like and so can run all day.



Don't forget Howard. Ryder was the "steak knives" in gaining Howard. We now have a back 6 in 2020 where all are good both offensively or defensively. Prior to 2020 players were often one of the other.



Yes Rats is our most important "recruit".

Many years of poor and often down right odd recruiting, but 2016 St Kilda turned the corner. Though 2015 did net both Carlisle and Gresham, but with Freeman trade a bust.

PS. We still lack one true gun inside mid. Though Steele is hitting his straps, but he needs a gun buddy in addition to Gresham as a sidekick.

‘hoping you have an excellent not just a good year. Will sting not to see it live