Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[La Dispute]

Largely against the original point though, Carlton have almost completely rebuilt the list in 5 years. Looking at them now they are a decent young team with some holes to fix but have a good core.

People projecting a list is well over 5 years away from competing is silly. The amount of turnover each year shows that.

Docherty is a good half back flank, can call him an A grader if you want but he is not someone you build a list around. Carlton had Cripps and only Cripps, they were in no better position than we are now.

If we get it right and nail everything we will be contending in 5 years, if we get it wrong and mess it up we will be a cellar dweller in 5 years. reality is we will probably be somewhere in between those two extremes but will have to wait and see.

It's not hard to project if your club keeps making the same list management errors. Hopefully for Hawthorn's sake their list management team takes a far more balanced approached to their list build and if they need to sacrifice early picks they do so for players who are worth them.

Docherty is a guy you can build a list around in the same way Hodge is a guy you can build a list around. He's not only a talented player, he's effectively an on field coach and brings all the intangibles with his leadership, courage and composure in pressure situations.

 

[NeXus Nick]

Gibbs came into his own in the years just prior to and just after Judd retired and was a very good inside/outside mid for 4-5 years at Carlton. His peak was superior to O'Meara's, who has plateaued into an average player with appalling footskills.

The less said about Wingard the better, but my general opinion of him drops on an almost weekly basis. He's a complete fraud of a footballer, one of if not the biggest downhill skiers in the league, and certainly the most disappointing recent acquisition for Hawthorn.

So yes, it's pretty clear I rate neither of those guys and don't expect anything out of them over the next 5 years.

Cripps and Docherty are more than just 'good' - they are AA players, and looked that they'd develop into stars from their first seasons at Carlton. There are no young players at Hawthorn who you can say will become surefire stars.

Anyway mate, we know where your chips are stacked - Keep fighting the good fight.

As much as I hate Carlton I have to agree here. Carlton and Hawthorn are on opposite trajectories IMHO. Carlton are on the way up and Hawthorn are on the way down. Will it play out this way....maybe. If Carlton get impatient and start making ridiculous offers to 27 year olds (like my team), they may get derailed. If Carlton keep going to the draft they will be top 4 by 2023. If Hawthorn keep topping up they will be mid table for another 2 to 3 years and then they will crash down to the bottom and remain there for 5 years. Irrespective of what Hawthorn do, they will not play finals for at least another 5 years and IMHO it will be at least 10 years.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

It's not hard to project if your club keeps making the same list management errors. Hopefully for Hawthorn's sake their list management team takes a far more balanced approached to their list build and if they need to sacrifice early picks they do so for players who are worth them.

Docherty is a guy you can build a list around in the same way Hodge is a guy you can build a list around. He's not only a talented player, he's effectively an on field coach and brings all the intangibles with his leadership, courage and composure in pressure situations.

Yeah i think that is key and i am not saying it is a sure thing to happen. i have been totally on board with the clubs decisions to this point to attempt the rebuild on the run. I think and hope the club is well aware of what needs to happen this off season, if it doesn't that is where they lose my support of the direction the club is going.

I am excited of what the future holds, it may be rough at times but get it right and we have seen how quickly clubs can rebound.

The thought of adding Phillips, Hollands or maybe Macrae is exciting. Hope one of them is around when we pick this year.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

As much as I hate Carlton I have to agree here. Carlton and Hawthorn are on opposite trajectories IMHO. Carlton are on the way up and Hawthorn are on the way down. Will it play out this way....maybe. If Carlton get impatient and start making ridiculous offers to 27 year olds (like my team), they may get derailed. If Carlton keep going to the draft they will be top 4 by 2023. If Hawthorn keep topping up they will be mid table for another 2 to 3 years and then they will crash down to the bottom and remain there for 5 years. Irrespective of what Hawthorn do, they will not play finals for at least another 5 years and IMHO it will be at least 10 years.

If you think that you probably don't know much about building lists.

 

[La Dispute]

As much as I hate Carlton I have to agree here. Carlton and Hawthorn are on opposite trajectories IMHO. Carlton are on the way up and Hawthorn are on the way down. Will it play out this way....maybe. If Carlton get impatient and start making ridiculous offers to 27 year olds (like my team), they may get derailed. If Carlton keep going to the draft they will be top 4 by 2023. If Hawthorn keep topping up they will be mid table for another 2 to 3 years and then they will crash down to the bottom and remain there for 5 years. Irrespective of what Hawthorn do, they will not play finals for at least another 5 years and IMHO it will be at least 10 years.

St Kilda went about list years trade period in exactly the right manner. They hadn't made finals since 2011, so had plenty of youngish guys on the list who talent, but just needed to fill in the gaps and inject some pace into the team. Obviously bringing in Ratten helps, but from a personnel POV St Kilda nailed it.

 

[Mofra]

St Kilda went about list years trade period in exactly the right manner. They hadn't made finals since 2011, so had plenty of youngish guys on the list who talent, but just needed to fill in the gaps and inject some pace into the team. Obviously bringing in Ratten helps, but from a personnel POV St Kilda nailed it.

King, Coffield, Clark, Billings... yep they have the top ten players to add experience to.
A little different to the Hawks who added experience and now are trying to bring kids in (Day)

 

[Ambrosia]

Anyway mate, we know where your chips are stacked - Keep fighting the good fight.

What? I'm not arguing Hawthorn are in good shape I just don't think trading away there best players is a smart way to improve their list. I mean there are plenty of Carlton supporters saying their young team is crying out for mature players and the club has chased all of Shiel, Papley, Coniglio extremely hard. Why would Hawthorn trading out players in their prime be a good idea?

I thought about leaving Gibbs off the list as he did provide good value for 3 seasons and then got overs at the trade table - so agree that is line ball.

Call Cripps and Docherty what you want the fact remains that only those 2 and Jones from Carlton's u25s in 2015 have made it as AFL footballers. I'm backing the Hawthorn development team to better than that with the below group. I mean they already have with Howe, Hardwick, Scrimshaw, Worpel, Day and Lewis without even taking into account that more likely than not some of the below unproven names will forge an AFL career.



Just to be clear I have Carlton well ahead of the Hawks in terms of list strength now and am not trying to argue otherwise.

 

[Hot Diggity]

Carlton are in a much better position for finals and potentially to contenders in the next 3-5 years than the Hawks are. You're delusional about your list state compared to theirs if you can't see that.

I'm not delusional. Read what the original poster said:

"Took hawks a whole 17 years to win another premiership after the 1991 until clarko came around. You had a whole line in the sand moment against the bombers who were I intimidated you for a while.
Granted you have been a very well organisation in the current era but this hubris is unwarranted.Carlton and Melbourne going through the same thing you guys did in the 90s and 2000s at the moment. No reason we can’t turn it around."

Carlton and Melbourne are not going through the same thing we did in the 90s and 2000s. Their performance is sustained mediocrity with no sign of a revival akin to what Clarko pulled off.

If Carlton are potentially contenders, they wouldn't blow lead after lead after lead. If Melbourne were, they'd have not gone from a prelim to second last in a season.

Hawthorn is in no shape to contend, and blind Freddy can see that. But to equate Melbourne's and Carlton's state to ours between early 90s - mid 200s is so far off the mark it isn't funny. Melbourne has been a byword for incompetence since the 1960s, and Carlton's admin has made sure it has taken misstep after misstep since Parkin left.

 

[Hot Diggity]

Cool. Thanks. Means you know I'm right if you had to go there after one post.

Anything incorrect about what I posted?

No matter. Enjoy you're current trajectory

The only thing that is incorrect is a Fremantle fan sitting on your high horse lecturing Hawthorn fans about what makes a successful list...

 

[Ambrosia]

Largely against the original point though, Carlton have almost completely rebuilt the list in 5 years. Looking at them now they are a decent young team with some holes to fix but have a good core.

Don't really agree that Carlton are a good example as their list was just completely ****ed. I've been critical of certain aspects of Carlton's rebuild (I mean Matt Shaw wtf) but it's quite clear they've gotten the meat and potatoes right bringing in Weitering, Mckay, Curnow, Setterfield, Williamson, Kennedy, Fisher, Cunningham, Marchbank, Pittonet, Silvagni, SPS, Newman, Martin, Mcgovern, Plowman, Gibbons and Walsh over 4 draft and trade periods (only listed players I felt have made it). Any other club that hadn't stuffed up their drafting 7 straight years prior would be back up the ladder challenging by now.

The upside for Carlton is they're still average so can add even more quality picks to a good young core. The downside being they still have work to do with quite a few older stop gap players still getting games.

 

[freofc1994]

Don't really agree that Carlton are a good example as their list was just completely f’ed. I've been critical of certain aspects of Carlton's rebuild (I mean Matt Shaw wtf) but it's quite clear they've gotten the meat and potatoes right bringing in Weitering, Mckay, Curnow, Setterfield, Williamson, Kennedy, Fisher, Cunningham, Marchbank, Pittonet, Silvagni, SPS, Walsh, Newman, Martin, Mcgovern,Plowman and Walsh over 4 draft and trade periods (only listed players I felt have made it). Any other club that hadn't stuffed up their drafting 7 straight years prior would be back up the ladder challenging by now.

The upside for Carlton is they're still average so can add even more quality picks to a good young core. The downside being they still have work to do with quite a few older stop gap players still getting games.

Walsh is that good it looks like 2 of him?

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The upside for Carlton is they're still average

This made me lol

 

[WWSD]

I don't think that's comparable, Richmond had a whole core of good or great players in prime age group. Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards at the end of 2016 before topping up and trading/drafting well. Richmond didn't need an entire rebuild, we just needed a new gameplan to support that core of guns. I don't see comparable quality at the Hawks, but I don't want to turn this into a Richmond thing.

What I'm saying is the Hawks might need to make some calls to get in good picks, but they don't have a heap of currency, so sacrificing a couple of mid 20s players for some gun 18 year olds might need to be the risk to take. Who do they have on their list with trade value?

Pick 4 isn’t a good pick? Most teams are tied to a F/S or an academy pick. Hawthorn aren’t. Hawthorn has four picks inside the top 50.

 

[WWSD]

Is Scully cooked?

He’s an expensive version of Billy Hartung.

 

[Ambrosia]

This made me lol

There probably is more eloquent way to put it but I mean there's the 19 players I named plus Cripps, Docherty and Jones with plenty of football ahead of them. They've still got Dow, LOB, Stocker, Kemp and Phillip as recent top 20 selections who have plenty of upside and their 2020 first rounder projects to a high value pick. They're almost like an expansion team which given they shouldn't have the same retention issues as GWS and GC puts them in good stead.

 

[WWSD]

So trade out Sicily for a high draft pick in the hopes to get someone better than him? That makes sense.

Even though Hawthorn will likely have to go down a rebuild path at the end of the year, no Hawthorn player wants to leave.

 

[juss]

Pick 4 isn’t a good pick? Most teams are tied to a F/S or an academy pick. Hawthorn aren’t. Hawthorn has four picks inside the top 50.

That's a good pick if it remains that way, but it's the hardest year to make drafting decisions with the draftees not playing footy in their crucial development year.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Would they have gotten any compo if they let Shaun Burgoyne sign with GC last year ?

Might have been letter to let him go in hindsight ?

 

[WWSD]

Would they have gotten any compo if they let Shaun Burgoyne sign with GC last year ?

Might have been letter to let him go in hindsight ?

It would’ve been a pick in the 50s.

 

[raffrox]

The only thing that is incorrect is a Fremantle fan sitting on your high horse lecturing Hawthorn fans about what makes a successful list...

You've responded with nothing but snipes at Freo when addressing my comments.

You realise that our footy knowledge and intelligence is not related to the teams we support? You aren't more right because you support the Hawks. You know that don't you?

The Hawks look like 2016-2018 Dockers last night. Tired players and negating game plan. No chance of winning but made sure that the loss didn't hurt too much. At least we were one of the youngest teams in the league over the last few years. Hawks one of the oldest. Two best midfielders who will never be the same due to injuries as well.

Snipe all you like. You've got some pain ahead.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Would they have gotten any compo if they let Shaun Burgoyne sign with GC last year ?

Might have been letter to let him go in hindsight ?

Almost certainly no compo and if it was it would have been nothing of note.

He will be offering more around the club (and on game day) than anything else we would have gotten for him.

 

[hk89]

The difference being we will shed our older players in Murphy, Kreuzer, Simpson and Curnow over the next few years and it'll be a relatively easy transition as none of these players are in our best 5 players. All their positions are covered by young players: Fisher, Williamson, TDK, Kennedy. Hawthorn are still very reliant on older players.

This is basically a lie. Part of the problem we have is that unlike teams like Geelong we are not able to rely on our older players, and have got very little out of them for a couple of years now (in general, there are some exceptions). This has left too much work to the younger and mid-range age players. This year we've also got nothing out of our mid range age players, and that has been out biggest issue. When the entire team is underperforming , both old, middle and younger aged it is hard to beat anyone - except Carlton of course.

Our approach has hardly been a failed strategy - what it is is a prolonged build.

Haha. Comedy gold. So when Hawthorn fails to win another flag with this list, we'll say its not a failed strategy, we've just got a very prolonged rebuild? Carlton are still shit. You lost to us, and we're currently in danger of losing to Adelaide when we meet them such is our shitness. Carlton are the best proof that following an opposite strategy to the one we've taken may not have worked out appreciably better. 5 spoons in 20 years "not a failed strategy". LOL.

 

[Kram]

The only thing that is incorrect is a Fremantle fan sitting on your high horse lecturing Hawthorn fans about what makes a successful list...

We are experts at seeing it first hand.

Clarko got a big head, lost the plot and butchered the Hawthorn list with looney moves like selling the farm for a beaten up O'Meara.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

We are experts at seeing it first hand.

Clarko got a big head, lost the plot and butchered the Hawthorn list with looney moves like selling the farm for a beaten up O'Meara.

What is with all the Clarko pot shots? I am so confused, do they know the inner workings of our list management?

We as a club made this decision, Clarko obviously involved but not alone.

The pot shots are boring and lame.

 

[WWSD]

Are Sydney tied to that academy player with their first round pick?