Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[matty_hawk]

Scrimshaw

Sorry, the question mark may have been misplaced. Gunston is an example of a player who was drafted to an interstate club, and also has the mentality to be a top line player.

 

[Caj]

Sorry, the question mark may have been misplaced. Gunston is an example of a player who was drafted to an interstate club, and also has the mentality to be a top line player.

That's a fair call and a great example matty, but I don't think there was ever any suggestion that Gunston downed tools while he was in Adelaide

Anyway I guess only time will tell, Scrimshaw clearly has the physical tools to become a very good player, and he may well do so. The signs he has shown so far at the Hawks have been very positive.

 

[Foucault1989]

The jury is still out on whether Hawthorn will crash and burn or rise up again. I hope they crash and burn but not prepared to call that yet.

 

[FairKouta]

Hey dummy I never said Lewis was better than Naughton. One plays as a forward/2nd ruck whilst the other is a utility.

I honestly couldn’t care if Hawthorn don’t win another Premiership for a while or whether they completely bottom out. As a supporter I have seen 5!

Now as for Brisbane being better they won 3 flags and played in 4 Grand Finals. Hawthorn won 4 flags, played in 5 Grand Finals and have made the top four 7 times under Clarkson. Who was better for longer and had a more dominant period of sustained success? It certainly wasn’t Brisbane.

Hawthorn had arguably the greatest forward-line in AFL history from 2011-2015. The Hawks also had a better back six. The Lions had a better midfield. That’s it.

.

Lels yeah nah. That Brisbane team was better in their 3 peat. Also don't resort to name calling. This was a reasoned argument minus the name calling.

 

[TheFourPillars]

The jury is still out on whether Hawthorn will crash and burn or rise up again. I hope they crash and burn but not prepared to call that yet.

The crux for the reason of many of the replies in this thread

 

[marty36]

The crux for the reason of many of the replies in this thread

Hawthorn will fall, its the way the comp is set up they must and it will be forced on them

You cant have 3 teams continually at the bottom the comp will destroy itself if that is the case

All teams in the near future will see themselves at the bottom for a period then rise again, rules will be changed to ensure this occurs, if GC get priority picks this year its to ensure they rise.

But lets be honest if 3 to 4 teams stay at the bottom they may aswell fold

 

[Pessimistic]

Brisbane 3 peat team was chock full of talent. by the time hawthorn re peat ed systems are much more in vogue. Better players suppressed their talent, role players looked better to play a system.

Brisbane had a bigger salary cap, had to play more away finals (although having a melbourne fitzroy support base gets overlooked) but also spooned in 98 with pretty much the same team (3 years before threepeat)

Hawks slipped in a fourth flag 4 years before their threepeat, looked stronger in defence and attack and posted successive grand final thrashings, not seen since the sixties

 

[Foucault1989]

The crux for the reason of many of the replies in this thread

Totally...but can you blame them? I mean as a Hawthorn fan you should take it as a compliment. Year after year Hawthorn beat up lesser teams like mine on the field. Hawthorn bullied carlton mercilessly. Online, Hawthorn fans have been super arrogant and why wouldn't you be with so much on field success? However all those other envious fans will revel in the joy of digging their heels in when and if Hawthorn fall. You dont forget watching your team getting belted year after year - both on the scoreboard and in general play. I personally hope Hawthorn fall dramatically and spend a decade as cellar dwellers like my pathetic football team so I can give it back.

This is just the circle of bigfooty life/trolling. You enjoy the good times and strut around but in the bad times you have to endure a bunch of nuffy fans who barely know your list provide their expert and often retrospective commentary like:

"Taking Jacob Weitering at pick 1 was a mistake" ...18 months into his footy career...

 

[marty36]

Totally...but can you blame them? I mean as a Hawthorn fan you should take it as a compliment. Year after year Hawthorn beat up lesser teams like mine on the field. Hawthorn bullied carlton mercilessly. Online, Hawthorn fans have been super arrogant and why wouldn't you be with so much on field success? However all those other envious fans will revel in the joy of digging their heels in when and if Hawthorn fall. You dont forget watching your team getting belted year after year - both on the scoreboard and in general play. I personally hope Hawthorn fall dramatically and spend a decade as cellar dwellers like my pathetic football team so I can give it back.

This is just the circle of bigfooty life/trolling. You enjoy the good times and strut around but in the bad times you have to endure a bunch of nuffy fans who barely know your list provide their expert and often retrospective commentary like:

"Taking Jacob Weitering at pick 1 was a mistake" ...18 months into his footy career...

Clubs would fold if the bottom three wasn't turned over, the AFL need to ensure that happens

 

[TheFourPillars]

Clubs would fold if the bottom three wasn't turned over, the AFL need to ensure that happens

They can't ensure anything all they can do is put a set of rules in place. The better clubs work within those rules and continue being successful. Its just way things have been. I can't see it changing too much in the future.

Edit: this isn't true just for Hawthorn but there are other clubs that fall into this category

 

[Pessimistic]

Maybe its not a shortage of on field talent, but more a shortage of admin talent

Having said that, half the teams lose every week regardless of how the club is going

Maybe one successful club out of 18 is not enough to sustain the entire competition - particularly if theres a tendency for up to three clubs to be very close to the top for three or so years running.

we've had three clubs get a run of five years winning three of the premierships in the last two decades.

the last premier club to get taken down by its salary cap was essendon 2000-01, on the 1 in 18 rule it should be bubbling up now

 

[Gralin]

Hawthorn will fall, its the way the comp is set up they must and it will be forced on them

You cant have 3 teams continually at the bottom the comp will destroy itself if that is the case

All teams in the near future will see themselves at the bottom for a period then rise again, rules will be changed to ensure this occurs, if GC get priority picks this year its to ensure they rise.

But lets be honest if 3 to 4 teams stay at the bottom they may aswell fold

All these rules are doing is dragging the level of the competition down in the hope that we get any given sunday type situation

Which ignores the fact that in the NFL it's not any given Superbowl.

You will still have the successful teams and the continual failures, some teams may swap between those groups but well run clubs are well run clubs, rules to artificially get results can only do so much

 

[Pessimistic]

Part of Hawthorns successful admin came direct from Port Power, who were strong in 01-03 and then premiers in 04. Been not so great since, but in 01-04 they continued to be strong - so much so when they had a long injury list and still winning I wondered if they were really under the salary cap (they probably werent)

 

[stfan]

Don't be mad because it went over your head, and Hawks will not cough up pick 5-ish for Brad Hill.


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If so that will be as Clarko does not want him. Freo have him contracted for is it 2 more years? So if another clubs (not just the Hawks) wants to prize him free second rounders will not get it done.

Clarko has shown that he likes players who can play now, and so I think it is more likely that you will at least try to trade the rather pick than keep it. A suitable deal may not happen of course.

I could see that the Blues for example may be keen to get him to add to their young mids. With a good group of young players adding a 26 year old would be a good fit for them.

 

[marty36]

All these rules are doing is dragging the level of the competition down in the hope that we get any given sunday type situation

Which ignores the fact that in the NFL it's not any given Superbowl.

You will still have the successful teams and the continual failures, some teams may swap between those groups but well run clubs are well run clubs, rules to artificially get results can only do so much

The AFL can and will manipulate the comp, GWS was manufactured and play to different rules they are solid and very competitive as are Sydney, but they clearly need to be for the game to grow

Brisbnae have found a way back, GC is the AFLs next project its been a long continual and hard journey, but it will be fixed, you will see priority picks this year and maybe some extra funding maybe a few sponsorship deals for players.

These states need a leg up for the sport to grow

Over time its very easy to manipulate drafting and salary caps and enforcement of these rules can be rigid, the game can easily be manipulated it doesnt get results immediatly but over time it will

 

[Luv_our_club]

If so that will be as Clarko does not want him. Freo have him contracted for is it 2 more years? So if another clubs (not just the Hawks) wants to prize him free second rounders will not get it done.

Clarko has shown that he likes players who can play now, and so I think it is more likely that you will at least try to trade the rather pick than keep it. A suitable deal may not happen of course.

I could see that the Blues for example may be keen to get him to add to their young mids. With a good group of young players adding a 26 year old would be a good fit for them.

Can Freo ask more for Brad Hill if he was traded to Hawthorn than they gave up for him?

He was contracted to Hawthorn.
The club moved him for compassionate reasons.
The Hawks took unders on the trade.
He was younger, had more footy in him.

Perhaps his reputation has grown at Freo, but only because he entered his prime at Freo. He was always a gun.

If Brad wants to come to us, then Freo owe the Hawks a fair trade. Or you could just argue the Hawks were too generous.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Can Freo ask more for Brad Hill if he was traded to Hawthorn than they gave up for him?

He was contracted to Hawthorn.
The club moved him for compassionate reasons.
The Hawks took unders on the trade.
He was younger, had more footy in him.

Perhaps his reputation has grown at Freo, but only because he entered his prime at Freo. He was always a gun.

If Brad wants to come to us, then Freo owe the Hawks a fair trade. Or you could just argue the Hawks were too generous.

I think we were just paying them back for the Croad trades.

 

[Pinnell]

Can Freo ask more for Brad Hill if he was traded to Hawthorn than they gave up for him?

He was contracted to Hawthorn.
The club moved him for compassionate reasons.
The Hawks took unders on the trade.
He was younger, had more footy in him.

Perhaps his reputation has grown at Freo, but only because he entered his prime at Freo. He was always a gun.

If Brad wants to come to us, then Freo owe the Hawks a fair trade. Or you could just argue the Hawks were too generous.

You'd have to think you made out like bandits with Trent Croad, so doubt they feel they owe you anything

Edit : missed the above post and beaten to it

 

[stfan]

Can Freo ask more for Brad Hill if he was traded to Hawthorn than they gave up for him?

He is clearly a better player now. So yes.

Your likely pick probably a bit overs. So you get a later pick back.

 

[Gralin]

The AFL can and will manipulate the comp, GWS was manufactured and play to different rules they are solid and very competitive as are Sydney, but they clearly need to be for the game to grow

Brisbnae have found a way back, GC is the AFLs next project its been a long continual and hard journey, but it will be fixed, you will see priority picks this year and maybe some extra funding maybe a few sponsorship deals for players.

These states need a leg up for the sport to grow

Over time its very easy to manipulate drafting and salary caps and enforcement of these rules can be rigid, the game can easily be manipulated it doesnt get results immediatly but over time it will

Sure they can influence things but they can't control the result.
Hawks are feeling the pinch of equalisation right now, but if the AFL could get the outcome they wanted the Suns would be up there and GWS would have already won a flag.

Plus you'd have Carlton, Essendon, Richmond and Collingwood all looking like contenders.

They push and prod to achieve their result but they their actions don't always produce the outcome they want

 

[Guardian Hawk]

In answer to the op...

Whilst Hawthorn 'can' succeed, the likelihood (and early indicators) are that they probably will not. Elite KPP talent, midfield depth and the right list profile are lacking at the moment and they are difficult to replace.

With that said, I don't think 'ignoring the draft' is the problem - in fact, I am confident the trades they have made have overall left Hawthorn in a better position than they would have been had they drafted instead. Comparing the players traded in against those drafted at those picks demonstrates this pretty well.

The reason Hawthorn is struggling is it has come off a long period of dominance and has lost a generation of elite talent, during which time younger talent (and yes, early picks) have not been available. It is, of course, the price any club would be willing to pay.

Like all Hawthorn supporters I hope Hawthorn bounces back but all of the talk of getting in Hill, Coniglio and Patton this off season and being straight back in premiership contention is nothing more than hope and has to be viewed as highly unlikely.

Look forward to how the next few years pans out and what Clarko comes up with.

 

[Brishawk]

What is changing that is unique to Hawthorn? It is more than some recent trades have paid substantially overs in terms of draft picks paid. So I think the discuss is more on that the trade price has been too high on some trades.

Cats, Tigers, Pies have all been huge traders in recent years. Cats have become more and moreso.

Tigers too also on becoming successful have gained additional benefit through the FA largess that mainly favours clubs at the top, despite the AFL originally thinking it would level the playing field and instead has had the reverse affect.

Lions traded for Neale in a deal that included their pick 6.

Port too have gone from poor trading to good trading.

Value in versus value out. As I mentioned above what will be seen over the next few years is whether or not the Hawks have sacrificed too much potential value in over some immediate value in.

It isn’t value in v value out. It’s opportunity v opportunity cost. Picks 30-50 perform virtually identically. You will often see hawthorn acquire a 3rd round pick or 4th round pick back when giving up a first and a second. The largest drop off in expected outcome of picks is between the first two picks and picks 3-5. After that the drop off is modest. If you want elite talent the odds of acquiring it at any pick aft the first 2 is substantially lower. Yes the first round is better than later rounds but we are still talking about 3-6 picks in the range of 3-20 to get one AA player.

Hawthorn traded pick 14 for Tom Mitchel. That pick had about a 1/6 chance of producing an AA player in an average draft. Even if hawthorn kept the pick and were lucky enough to get a similar quality player it would be five years before the new recruit would get close to Tom Mitchell level. Meanwhile Breust, Gunston, shiels, Smith, Frawley, Stratton, Birchall, McEvoy etc. all pass by their prime and need replacing. So the opportunity cost of recruiting via the draft is obscenely high if you think you have a group that could win a flag with more aa talent around them.

Taking the view that omeara and wingard came at too high a cost ignores the complete list position. It also ignores the entire list management that occurred in each of those seasons.

Mitchell, omeara, wingard, Scully, scrimshaw are all top 10 pick quality talent. Only a single top 10 pick was traded. The opportunity cost of these trades is simply not what people believe it is.

 

[HairyO]

Based on this year's form and those players age, no club would.

So who is floating that?

Im sure if you added up the value of all the Hawthorn players it would be 2 or 3 x 1st round, 6 or 8 x 2nd round, a few would be 3rd rounders and the rest would be steak knives.

If we then did the same for St Kilda it would 4 or 5 x 1st round, 6 or 8 x 2nd round, etc.

Imagine if we then did Carlton. Would be 8 or 10 x 1st round, 8 or 10 x 2nd round, etc.

BigFooty would therefore conclude that Carlton is the best team of the 3. Then St Kilda. Then Hawthorn.

Yet...

 

[HairyO]

Well if they are massively overrated why do you want them?

We dont. We want Coniglio, Whitfield, the good McGovern and maybe Peter Wright. What we end up with will be far less of course.

Im pretty sure the goal is to get the best players possible with the picks you have, whether you use the picks at draft time, or earlier to facilitate trades.

The method of getting the player really doesnt matter. What matters is that you fill the holes.

 

[mattwa]

Other supporters - 'you can't keep trading out 1st round picks, you need elite '1st round' talent'

Clarko trades out 4 years' worth of 1st round picks and brings in:
Mitchell @ age 23 (pick 14)
O'Maera @ age 23 ('mini-draft' pick 1 - would clearly have been top 5 if he went to normal draft)
Wingard @ age 25 (pick 6)
Scully @ age 27 (pick 1)
Scrimshaw @ age 21 (pick 7)

Other supporters - 'no, you need to bring them in as 18 year olds or it doesn't count'

Scully is not worthy of being on this list cmon hes lucky to be playing and is 50% of the player he was for the Giants in 16/17.
Wingard you clearly overpaid for
Omeara and Mitchell were great gets
Scrimshaw looks good but early days but signs are positive

3/5