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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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QuietB said:
History is everything. It is the reason the Hawks are where they are. Winning has a price and the Hawks are currently paying it.

The question is will they have to pay as much as others have had to?

And history says they won’t.
Click to expand...

so even though the hawks are a middle of the road side, players are going to leave , and play at a discount, for the privilege?

Just like Shiels and Lynch right?
 
Pessimistic said:
Over that period, how does the premiership strike rate compare to the rest of the teams? eg the strike rate is 1/18 in 2018 and 1/16 in 2004
you mention as strike rate of 3/25 which is 1/8 ? not sure if I've interpreted you correctly (honestly)
Click to expand...

Three things were implied

- Hawthorn's recent record is typical of a club going over the cliff

- there are exceptions to the general rule

- two of those exceptions (1975 and 2017) are themselves exceptions - West Coast through the temporary acquisitions of Mitchell & Petrie and subsequent retirement of Priddis which changed their midfield style, and North 1975 where Wade, Davis and Rantall were briefly acquired via the ten-year rule. North 1997 appears a reasonable comparison to current-day Hawthorn, ladder position aside.

YearClubLosses 1.5+LadderAvg Age+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
2019Ha611th*26.43*
2017WC86th26.771st2nd*
2016NM88th27.6315th9th14th*
2012St69th26.3516th18th14th9th11th16th13th*
2005PA76th26.8212th2nd13th10th10th16th14th6th
2003Br71st26.302nd11th13th10th10th6th13th15th
2000WB78th25.7410th12th16th14th9th6th13th3rd
1997Ca911th25.9311th2nd3rd6th16th15th11th16th
1997Me716th25.574th14th2nd11th6th14th7th8th
1997NM64th25.732nd1st4th13th8th10th10th7th
1996Ha88th26.4215th13th9th6th4th10th9th15th
1990Br914th25.5815th14th13th12th8th3rd8th16th
1990Sy913th25.8812th15th15th15th12th2nd8th5th
1989Br910th26.3214th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th
1989Sy77th26.4613th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th
1988Br813th26.0910th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd
1988Sy67th26.177th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd
1983Ri710th26.188th8th10th14th10th14th11th13th
1975NM91st25.642nd1st2nd3rd5th8th4th3rd
1966NM67th24.848th12th8th12th9th12th6th2nd
1946Fi98th27.473rd7th7th5th5th3rd6th11th
1945St612th26.3911th12th12th11th9th10th12th9th
1934NM812th26.2812th11th12th9th9th12th9th9th
1925Ha712th26.3811th12th12th10th10th11th12th11th
1925WB711th26.6810th10th7th9th11th5th7th7th
1908Ge610th25.599th5th6th4th5th4th9thDNP

Such teams finishing below 6th were less able to weather the storm in the short term.
 
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Ron The Bear said:
Three things were implied

- Hawthorn's recent record is typical of a club going over the cliff

- there are exceptions to the general rule

- two of those exceptions (1975 and 2017) are themselves exceptions - West Coast through the temporary acquisitions of Mitchell & Petrie and subsequent retirement of Priddis which changed their midfield style, and North 1975 where Wade, Davis and Rantall were briefly acquired via the ten-year rule. North 1997 appears a reasonable comparison to current-day Hawthorn.

YearClubLosses 1.5+Ladder+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
2019Ha611th*
2017WC86th1st2nd*
2016NM88th15th9th14th*
2012St69th16th18th14th9th11th16th13th*
2005PA76th12th2nd13th10th10th16th14th6th
2003Br71st2nd11th13th10th10th6th13th15th
2000WB78th10th12th16th14th9th6th13th3rd
1997NM64th2nd1st4th13th8th10th10th7th
1997Me716th4th14th2nd11th6th14th7th8th
1997Ca911th11th2nd3rd6th16th15th11th16th
1996Ha88th15th13th9th6th4th10th9th15th
1990Sy913th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th5th
1990Br914th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th16th
1989Sy77th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th
1989Br910th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th
1988Br813th10th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd
1988Sy67th7th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd
1983Ri710th8th8th10th14th10th14th11th13th
1975NM91st2nd1st2nd3rd5th8th4th3rd
1966NM67th8th12th8th12th9th12th6th2nd
1946Fi98th3rd7th7th5th5th3rd6th11th
1945St612th11th12th12th11th9th10th12th9th
1934NM812th12th11th12th9th9th12th9th9th
1925Ha712th11th12th12th10th10th11th12th11th
1925WB711th10th10th7th9th11th5th7th7th
1908Ge610th9th5th6th4th5th4th9thDNP

Such teams finishing below 6th were less able to weather the storm in the short term.
Click to expand...
1997 North were an old side missing the one of greatest players in history. Not sure Hawthorn have another Carey in the wings ruled out with a shoulder injury
 

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Ron The Bear said:
Three things were implied

- Hawthorn's recent record is typical of a club going over the cliff

- there are exceptions to the general rule

- two of those exceptions (1975 and 2017) are themselves exceptions - West Coast through the temporary acquisitions of Mitchell & Petrie and subsequent retirement of Priddis which changed their midfield style, and North 1975 where Wade, Davis and Rantall were briefly acquired via the ten-year rule. North 1997 appears a reasonable comparison to current-day Hawthorn.

YearClubLosses 1.5+Ladder+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
2019Ha611th*
2017WC86th1st2nd*
2016NM88th15th9th14th*
2012St69th16th18th14th9th11th16th13th*
2005PA76th12th2nd13th10th10th16th14th6th
2003Br71st2nd11th13th10th10th6th13th15th
2000WB78th10th12th16th14th9th6th13th3rd
1997Ca911th11th2nd3rd6th16th15th11th16th
1997Me716th4th14th2nd11th6th14th7th8th
1997NM64th2nd1st4th13th8th10th10th7th
1996Ha88th15th13th9th6th4th10th9th15th
1990Br91th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th16th
1990Sy913th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th5th
1989Br910th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th
1989Sy77th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th
1988Br813th10th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd
1988Sy67th7th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd
1983Ri710th8th8th10th14th10th14th11th13th
1975NM91st2nd1st2nd3rd5th8th4th3rd
1966NM67th8th12th8th12th9th12th6th2nd
1946Fi98th3rd7th7th5th5th3rd6th11th
1945St612th11th12th12th11th9th10th12th9th
1934NM812th12th11th12th9th9th12th9th9th
1925Ha712th11th12th12th10th10th11th12th11th
1925WB711th10th10th7th9th11th5th7th7th
1908Ge610th9th5th6th4th5th4th9thDNP

Such teams finishing below 6th were less able to weather the storm in the short term.
Click to expand...

I like it. theres a lot of financial basket cases in there though. Is there something we don't know?
 
Hawthorn 1996 Brisbane 2003 Port 2005 are the teams which could look back on a successful period as justification.

St Kilda went the bottom out clearly, and made bugger all difference
 
blaisee said:
Take out the Tasmanian government subsidy, and the pokies money ( both of which are not sustainable long term ) and you will not be too far from the truth
Click to expand...

Now you are being ridiculous. Through soft caps etc Hawks are subsidising many other clubs. Managing the TPP cap well too (unlike 1996) I think the hawks 1925 accounts are lost


Can't understand why essendon's not in the list either, they are the case study for riches to rags
 
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its free real estate said:
1997 North were an old side missing the one of greatest players in history. Not sure Hawthorn have another Carey in the wings ruled out with a shoulder injury
Click to expand...

I've added the average team ages for comparison. It's not that North was an historically old team, but rather that the competition was in a state of flux where several young teams were highly competitive - St.Kilda, the Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane and Port among them.

Crocker (31), Laidley (30), Schwass (28), Rock (27) were the oldest players who departed after 1997-98 before they won in 1999.

It should be noted that team ages are not directly comparable across eras; for example it was customary for premiership teams in the 1960's to be aged under 24.

Currently the competition is very old, with five teams older than 26, which may serve to soften Hawthorn's decline. This has only been seen once previously, in the post-war period 1919-24.
 
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Hang on though, you can identify clubs which lost 6 or more games while having an average age 1.5 years more than the opponents in 1908?

Hmmm wcha talking bout willis?

in any case a 3 from 25 strike rate is probably twice the success rate of all other starters ever in the premiership race, even though a good half of the 25 were financially challenged.

Not that I don't see your point, if its related to opponents, they are likely a significant bit older than previous decades too, better medical and fitness support etc.
 
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Ron The Bear said:
I've added the average team ages for comparison. It's not that North was an historically old team, but rather that the competition was in a state of flux where several young teams were highly competitive - St.Kilda, the Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane and Port among them.

Crocker (31), Laidley (30), Schwass (28), Rock (27) were the oldest players who departed after 1997-98.
Click to expand...
True, list profiles were very different then.
 
How do opposition supporters rank Coniglio right now? Just curious.

I guarantee 100% there will be changed perception and he will be rated a whole lot differently come October. :$:thumbsu:
 

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Good on you Cogs for using your Free Agency to go to a bottom 8 club like Hawthorn.

A team that is over the cliff, no superstars and destined to be crap for years to come.

Good to see a gun using FA to go to a battling club.
 

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its free real estate said:
Coniglio is a decent player but if he chooses to join Hawthorn it’s obvious his knee is worse than many suspect and he’s simply looking for a fat paycheck without the pressure to play 25 games a year.
Click to expand...
this is real nice areas......sort of tinfoil hat combined with salt and BF hyperbole.....
 
blaisee said:
that's fine

These views aren't really controversial... unless you go Hawthorn

Worpel is top 6 in the league in clangers, and at the same age, Cleve Hughes averaged more goals per game than Mitchell Lewis
Click to expand...
Oh wow.
He's top 30 in the comp for contested ball. At the age of 20. So most of his kicks are quick kicks under pressure.
I'm glad he's ours.
 
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WWSD said:
How do opposition supporters rank Coniglio right now? Just curious.

I guarantee 100% there will be changed perception and he will be rated a whole lot differently come October. :$:thumbsu:
Click to expand...

One of the best midfielders in the competetion.

Not the dynamic flashy kind like Dangerfield, Fyfe or Martin who can turn games with 15 minutes of brilliance but rarely beaten and always one of the best players on the field.

Make no mistakes, if he signs with you and GWS don't match and force a trade you will be much better next year with him and Mitchell returning.
 
WWSD said:
IN
Mitchell
Coniglio
Patton
Scrimshaw
Top 10 draft pick


OUT
Roughead
Puopolo
Birchall
Smith

The ins are better than the outs! :$:thumbsu:
Click to expand...

How come you have the injury ins, but not the outs? ie Impey with his ACL

Cogs is not yet acquired and if he chooses the Hawks and if GWS then match any Hawks offer then then Hawks will have to trade and then there goes the Top 10 pick plus more.
 
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