Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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PetterdHoisted

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Actually, Tigers 2016 did have some similarities to Hawthorn 2019.

The year before, Tigers had finished 5th before a dramatic drop down the ladder in 2016. Similar to Hawthorn finishing 4th before a a dramatic drop down the ladder in 2019 (after losing our best player in the offseason).

The similarities end there though. Hawthorn's drop down the ladder was predictable with their best Midfielder out, given their depth weaknesses in that area. A tougher draw didn't help either. Richmond were also considerably worse than Hawthorn towards the end of the 2016 season compared to Hawthorn in 2019. 3 of Richmonds last 6 games of the year were losses by 70, 88 and 113. Their only win during that period was 15 points against their fellow bottom 8 team, Collingwood. Hawthorn's last 6 games of 2019 included 3 wins against top 8 sides (by 24, 56 and 38), our biggest loss in those last 6 games was 27 against the team that finished second. (an unrelated aside, that 113 belting from Sydney in the final round was an amazing display for those who like to watch Hawthorn players running around in other team's jumpers, Kennedy 37 disposals, T.Mitchell 34 disposals, Lance Franklin 7 goals, Ben McGlynn 5 goals (his last ever H&A game) - all that Hawthorn talent and it still wasn't enough to win them the flag that year. Thank god we finally got one player heading back in the other direction).

So given how Richmond were travelling at the end of 2016, Hawthorn have a much more favourable launching platform from their 2019 season than Richmond had in 2016. Richmond got a couple of key recruits in the 2016 off season that allowed them to supplement their high quality top 4 with some much needed midfield depth. Hawthorn will be injecting the 2018 Brownlow medal winner into their midfield depth, and already had a fairly well functioning midfield in the last part of the season (after struggling with Mitchell's loss in the first half with Worpel still finding his feet, and Wingard coming off an injury marred pre-season).

Hawthorn don't have a coach on the verge of being sacked like Richmond did in 2016. Who knows, perhaps that was their secret weapon? Hardwick finally pulling his finger out once his job was on the line?

You extrapolate our end of year form, and Mitchell's return, and we should be confident of playing finals again in 2020. That is not a cliff. More like a yoyo. Hopefully we can stabilise the yoyoing for 2020/2021.
Yo-yo, not cliff. Exactly. My god how do people still not get this. Hawthorn desperately needed to go off a cliff, but Clarko's legacy-obsession didn't allow it. What occurred as a result is exactly as I predicted 3 years ago, after a bit of yo-yo-ing they have settled perfectly at 9th, middling at its absolute finest. It was so obvious.

They need a coach who is not so over-burdened with GOAT labels that he/she can contemplate a genuine rebuild. What is the plan this year? Roughie went out playing VFL, Burger is leaving? Poppy? they'll bring in a few good ones, sure, but you need to just to stand still with so much aging elite talent going out the door each year. Hence the iterating towards 9th.

So here we are, 3 years after it was clear the Hawks golden age was over. They have achieved things, but in the end nothing significant, finishing just outside finals or going out in straight sets. Critically though they got nothing (virtually) for Hodge, for Roughie, for Cyril, for Pops, for Burgoyne etc. All that currency burned on the alter of Clarko's ego.

3 years ago, I called for them to put all these guys on the table to get a set of first round draft picks and start building the next golden generation. HK89 you were just one of many harsh critics of my idea, but surely now you must wish you could go back in time? You could be seeing the green shoots of the next golden generation just starting to peek through now- certainly Tom Lynch would be a Hawk not a Tiger- and you could still have picked up Worpel, Scrimshaw etc. with late round picks in any case.

I think it's instructive that the reason the Hawks arent playing finals this is year is the emergence of a Lions team built from ashes that honestly looks to me like it will seriously contend for the next 5 years at least.
 

matey

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Yo-yo, not cliff. Exactly. My god how do people still not get this. Hawthorn desperately needed to go off a cliff, but Clarko's legacy-obsession didn't allow it. What occurred as a result is exactly as I predicted 3 years ago, after a bit of yo-yo-ing they have settled perfectly at 9th, middling at its absolute finest. It was so obvious.

They need a coach who is not so over-burdened with GOAT labels that he/she can contemplate a genuine rebuild. What is the plan this year? Roughie went out playing VFL, Burger is leaving? Poppy? they'll bring in a few good ones, sure, but you need to just to stand still with so much aging elite talent going out the door each year. Hence the iterating towards 9th.

So here we are, 3 years after it was clear the Hawks golden age was over. They have achieved things, but in the end nothing significant, finishing just outside finals or going out in straight sets. Critically though they got nothing (virtually) for Hodge, for Roughie, for Cyril, for Pops, for Burgoyne etc. All that currency burned on the alter of Clarko's ego.

3 years ago, I called for them to put all these guys on the table to get a set of first round draft picks and start building the next golden generation. HK89 you were just one of many harsh critics of my idea, but surely now you must wish you could go back in time? You could be seeing the green shoots of the next golden generation just starting to peek through now- certainly Tom Lynch would be a Hawk not a Tiger- and you could still have picked up Worpel, Scrimshaw etc. with late round picks in any case.

I think it's instructive that the reason the Hawks arent playing finals this is year is the emergence of a Lions team built from ashes that honestly looks to me like it will seriously contend for the next 5 years at least.
Completely different to the view of the GOAT in how the Hawks have transitioned from a three peat, building nicely towards contending for more silverware in the near future. You need to listen to him a lot more closely. I think I will believe GOAT instead of all the BF buffoons.

One thing I do agree with you is the Lions will be up their for the next 5 years ...... playing against the Hawks during Sep!
 

BJK#5

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Yo-yo, not cliff. Exactly. My god how do people still not get this. Hawthorn desperately needed to go off a cliff, but Clarko's legacy-obsession didn't allow it. What occurred as a result is exactly as I predicted 3 years ago, after a bit of yo-yo-ing they have settled perfectly at 9th, middling at its absolute finest. It was so obvious.

They need a coach who is not so over-burdened with GOAT labels that he/she can contemplate a genuine rebuild. What is the plan this year? Roughie went out playing VFL, Burger is leaving? Poppy? they'll bring in a few good ones, sure, but you need to just to stand still with so much aging elite talent going out the door each year. Hence the iterating towards 9th.

So here we are, 3 years after it was clear the Hawks golden age was over. They have achieved things, but in the end nothing significant, finishing just outside finals or going out in straight sets. Critically though they got nothing (virtually) for Hodge, for Roughie, for Cyril, for Pops, for Burgoyne etc. All that currency burned on the alter of Clarko's ego.

3 years ago, I called for them to put all these guys on the table to get a set of first round draft picks and start building the next golden generation. HK89 you were just one of many harsh critics of my idea, but surely now you must wish you could go back in time? You could be seeing the green shoots of the next golden generation just starting to peek through now- certainly Tom Lynch would be a Hawk not a Tiger- and you could still have picked up Worpel, Scrimshaw etc. with late round picks in any case.

I think it's instructive that the reason the Hawks arent playing finals this is year is the emergence of a Lions team built from ashes that honestly looks to me like it will seriously contend for the next 5 years at least.
Boy oh boy what a post.

Did you also predict us losing our best player for the year 3 seasons ago?

What makes you say that Lynch would be a Hawk?

And the Lions is the example of what we should have done? Because I personally am not real keen on going a decade without finals. Rebuilding through the draft is ******* hard and I am more than happy with the rebuild model we have taken.
 

QuietB

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Yo-yo, not cliff. Exactly. My god how do people still not get this. Hawthorn desperately needed to go off a cliff, but Clarko's legacy-obsession didn't allow it. What occurred as a result is exactly as I predicted 3 years ago, after a bit of yo-yo-ing they have settled perfectly at 9th, middling at its absolute finest. It was so obvious.

They need a coach who is not so over-burdened with GOAT labels that he/she can contemplate a genuine rebuild. What is the plan this year? Roughie went out playing VFL, Burger is leaving? Poppy? they'll bring in a few good ones, sure, but you need to just to stand still with so much aging elite talent going out the door each year. Hence the iterating towards 9th.

So here we are, 3 years after it was clear the Hawks golden age was over. They have achieved things, but in the end nothing significant, finishing just outside finals or going out in straight sets. Critically though they got nothing (virtually) for Hodge, for Roughie, for Cyril, for Pops, for Burgoyne etc. All that currency burned on the alter of Clarko's ego.

3 years ago, I called for them to put all these guys on the table to get a set of first round draft picks and start building the next golden generation. HK89 you were just one of many harsh critics of my idea, but surely now you must wish you could go back in time? You could be seeing the green shoots of the next golden generation just starting to peek through now- certainly Tom Lynch would be a Hawk not a Tiger- and you could still have picked up Worpel, Scrimshaw etc. with late round picks in any case.

I think it's instructive that the reason the Hawks arent playing finals this is year is the emergence of a Lions team built from ashes that honestly looks to me like it will seriously contend for the next 5 years at least.
I too am astounded that the Hawks have not won another three peat since their last three peat :rolleyes: It is obviously Clarko's ego

Three years ago the Hawks were reigning premiers you pigeon.
 

Luv_our_club

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Clarko having won 4 flags (tagged as GOAT) is not a burden on his decision making.

The real burden for a coach is when you have been coaching for at least 5 years and never won a flag. Desperation sets in.

Clarkson's reputation gives him the license to take his time and to make potentially unpopular decisions. All his messaging to Hawk members is about having patience because we are aiming for silverware, not just the W's.
 

Ron The Bear

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Hawks fans have resorted to arguing with Carlton fans about who's in a better place.

How the mighty have fallen.
The contrast is interesting. Article in the HS states Burgoyne is being offloaded because the Hawks "need to lower the age profile of their list". Meanwhile Carlton is making room for Betts (33 in Nov) and Jacobs (32 in April)...
 

Catters 070911

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This is one of the most honest answers given in this whole thread. Very refreshing given the dribble from others.

Well, I will give you one example.


Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.
 

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Sixpence

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The contrast is interesting. Article in the HS states Burgoyne is being offloaded because the Hawks "need to lower the age profile of their list". Meanwhile Carlton is making room for Betts (33 in Nov) and Jacobs (32 in April)...
This is why you don't read the Hun! Burgoyne has been offered the standard one year extension we give to all our players over 30. If he leaves, it'll simply be to get a better deal. He's still playing better footy than minimum 70% of players, so it's ridiculous to offload him just to reduce our age profile and appease dickheads on the internet (not you RTB, but others here).
 

BJK#5

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Well, I will give you one example.


Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.
We are trying to build a core group of players that will be peaking at the same time.

None of those guys were going to be a part of our next premiership.

Sicily, Mitchell, O’meara, Wingard, Scully, Breust, Gunston, Impey etc are all in a similar age bracket. I don’t think we are building for the next dynasty. We are developing a list that should be competitive at the top end to give us another shot at a premiership.
 

Sixpence

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Well, I will give you one example.


Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.
They were offloaded for their benefit, not ours. How do people not understand this? Why do you think they went for peanuts? All of them got better deals at their next club then what we could have offered.

Wingard is only 4 years older than Burton and significantly better. Not a slight on Burton, but they're not at the same level.
 

Ron The Bear

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This is why you don't read the Hun! Burgoyne has been offered the standard one year extension we give to all our players over 30. If he leaves, it'll simply be to get a better deal. He's still playing better footy than minimum 70% of players, so it's ridiculous to offload him just to reduce our age profile and appease dickheads on the internet (not you RTB, but others here).
In fairness to the HS, Burgoyne's looming departure appears similar to the exits of Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell, which I thought were bold but correct calls at the time given Tom Mitchell & O'Meara were coming in, along with the surprising Henderson (and the bust Vickery).
 

Catters 070911

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They were offloaded for their benefit, not ours. How do people not understand this? Why do you think they went for peanuts? All of them got better deals at their next club then what we could have offered.

Wingard is only 4 years older than Burton and significantly better. Not a slight on Burton, but they're not at the same level.

But you must think Hawthorn are only five years off a flag and not ten, because you brought in an older player, hoping he will be part of your next flag.

I also question what you say about Wingard. Sure, he is a more talented player, but he goes missing a bit, and I have always seen him as a downhill skiier. If his effort matched his talent, he might be your best player in the side, but he hasn't shown this work ethic yet.

I highly rated Burton, and thought that he would be the new general in your backline going forward.

Besides, you better hope Wingard is good, considering that Port got Burton and a draft pick, who I think they used to get Connor Rozee from. So, to win that deal, Wingard's career going forward would want to be better than it has been so far.
 

Mappa

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Well, I will give you one example.

Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.
Burton was drafted as a midfielder, and is not a cornerstone of any backline. He is, and will be a fine player, but cornerstone is overstating it a little. Chad Wingard is 4 years older than Burton, so we didn't exactly trade a late model Holden for an EH. 26 is hardly over the hill.

Stats can be used to prove anything, but i do now that went backwards in almost every metric from 2017 to 2018.

I don't know the inner workings of the Hawthorn Football Club, but I suggest a successful club like ours doesn't just trade away young talent (and one that had the number 5 presented to him) for no reason. Maybe something happened, maybe he turned out to be a goose, maybe he didn't. Maybe we just saw something better in Wingard. If we are wrong on it, I'll happily admit that, but I'll give Wingard a season or two in our colours before making that judgement.
 

Mappa

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Wingard will be jet next year in the midfield. I am looking forward to the pre season
It takes a while to get rid of bad habits. Look at Frawley and look at Lake as just two examples. Watching Wingard at the back end of the season he was chasing and tackling and doing a lot of uphill skiing stuff. I'm looking forward to him proving a lot of people wrong in 2020
 

Catters 070911

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Burton was drafted as a midfielder, and is not a cornerstone of any backline. He is, and will be a fine player, but cornerstone is overstating it a little. Chad Wingard is 4 years older than Burton, so we didn't exactly trade a late model Holden for an EH. 26 is hardly over the hill.

Stats can be used to prove anything, but i do now that went backwards in almost every metric from 2017 to 2018.

I don't know the inner workings of the Hawthorn Football Club, but I suggest a successful club like ours doesn't just trade away young talent (and one that had the number 5 presented to him) for no reason. Maybe something happened, maybe he turned out to be a goose, maybe he didn't. Maybe we just saw something better in Wingard. If we are wrong on it, I'll happily admit that, but I'll give Wingard a season or two in our colours before making that judgement.

Just taking an outsider's point of view, for what that's worth.

I would rather have Ryan Burton at my club than Chad Wingard (though I would take a Wingard who plays up to his level of talent, and pulls his finger out).
 

PetterdHoisted

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Boy oh boy what a post.

Did you also predict us losing our best player for the year 3 seasons ago?

What makes you say that Lynch would be a Hawk?

And the Lions is the example of what we should have done? Because I personally am not real keen on going a decade without finals. Rebuilding through the draft is ******* hard and I am more than happy with the rebuild model we have taken.
The risk is there for the decade long bottom-out, but the upside is a golden generation. Surely that's better than middling..?

(only the Dees ruin my argument, they are an elite draft pick side...but they are beyond any logical understanding)
 

Luv_our_club

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Well, I will give you one example.


Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.
i don't know why it baffles you.

1. Hawthorn predicted Lewis and Mitchell were close to the end. They got that call right and rebuilt their midfield in 3 years.

2. Burton was not rated highly within the club. Time will tell if they got that call right. Burton is not a spud, but he wan't what Clarkson wanted. His coach's votes in the BNF in 2018 were the lowest average of any player.

3. Hawthorn never declared they were pursuing a pure youth policy and bottoming out. People assumed. A simple answer to your confusion could be that there is more than 1 way to build a list.
 

Catters 070911

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i don't know why it baffles you.

1. Hawthorn predicted Lewis and Mitchell were close to the end. They got that call right and rebuilt their midfield in 3 years.

2. Burton was not rated highly within the club. Time will tell if they got that call right. Burton is not a spud, but he wan't what Clarkson wanted. His coach's votes in the BNF in 2018 were the lowest average of any player.

3. Hawthorn never declared they were pursuing a pure youth policy and bottoming out. People assumed. A simple answer to your confusion could be that there is more than 1 way to build a list.

Funny how different players are rated after the fact.
 

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