Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[tommyk72]

I think the most exciting thing about this is that, if it does lead to success, it will completely change the way list management is looked at. Yet again, Clarko would be a pioneer in the AFL.

The method of measuring "succeed" as a premiership is too narrow. For me, if they hawks make the top 4 (again - like last year) or even a GF in the next four years then it shows that the method has worked. Given the injuries we've had this year, the development of some exciting youngsters, and our form against those clubs in the top 8 (we've nearly lost more to the bottom 10 than the top 8) I don't think this would be unfathomable.

If we make it again, watch everyone who has posted in this thread go quiet as their list management teams completely change their approach to drafting and trading. That being said, I think we've already begun seeing shifts. Look at what Essendon have already done. They haven't had a first rounder for two years (ironically picking up a Hawthorn academy player with their first pick in 2018), and they won't have one (unless they trade out a good player) in 2019.

Think people need to get their heads out of the sand and see that the draft use is already changing, and it's only going to keep coming. As always, Hawthorn is the tall poppy as we're leading the way.

 

[detox]

He was a top ten pick...

If we just overlook how good he has been this year, that’s all that matters according to this thread isn’t ?

This thread: You need a top ten pick.

A) We have Scrimshaw who is one and is performing like it.

This thread: There's no evidence that he is going to be good. Trade Bruest & Gunston for top ten picks.

 

[stfan]

Think people need to get their heads out of the sand and see that the draft use is already changing, and it's only going to keep coming. As always, Hawthorn is the tall poppy as we're leading the way.

What is changing that is unique to Hawthorn? It is more than some recent trades have paid substantially overs in terms of draft picks paid. So I think the discuss is more on that the trade price has been too high on some trades.

Cats, Tigers, Pies have all been huge traders in recent years. Cats have become more and moreso.

Tigers too also on becoming successful have gained additional benefit through the FA largess that mainly favours clubs at the top, despite the AFL originally thinking it would level the playing field and instead has had the reverse affect.

Lions traded for Neale in a deal that included their pick 6.

Port too have gone from poor trading to good trading.

Value in versus value out. As I mentioned above what will be seen over the next few years is whether or not the Hawks have sacrificed too much potential value in over some immediate value in.

 

[tommyk72]

What is changing that is unique to Hawthorn? It is more than some recent trades have paid substantially overs in terms of draft picks paid. So I think the discuss is more on that the trade price has been too high on some trades.

Cats, Tigers, Pies have all been huge traders in recent years. Cats have become more and moreso.

Tigers too also on becoming successful have gained additional benefit through the FA largess that mainly favours clubs at the top, despite the AFL originally thinking it would level the playing field and instead has had the reverse affect.

Lions traded for Neale in a deal that included their pick 6.

Port too have gone from poor trading to good trading.

Value in versus value out. As I mentioned above what will be seen over the next few years is whether or not the Hawks have sacrificed too much potential value in over some immediate value in.

But then the question should be ‘Can Hawthorn’, it really should be titled either:

A/ Can clubs...

or

B/ Have hawthorn paid too much for players...

I think the more interesting question it question A.

 

[Pessimistic]

Scrimshaw seems to have somehow made the jump to "top end talent" with very little evidence

Elite draft pick?

 

[Gavin Excell]

I think the most exciting thing about this is that, if it does lead to success, it will completely change the way list management is looked at. Yet again, Clarko would be a pioneer in the AFL.

The method of measuring "succeed" as a premiership is too narrow. For me, if they hawks make the top 4 (again - like last year) or even a GF in the next four years then it shows that the method has worked. Given the injuries we've had this year, the development of some exciting youngsters, and our form against those clubs in the top 8 (we've nearly lost more to the bottom 10 than the top 8) I don't think this would be unfathomable.

If we make it again, watch everyone who has posted in this thread go quiet as their list management teams completely change their approach to drafting and trading. That being said, I think we've already begun seeing shifts. Look at what Essendon have already done. They haven't had a first rounder for two years (ironically picking up a Hawthorn academy player with their first pick in 2018), and they won't have one (unless they trade out a good player) in 2019.

Think people need to get their heads out of the sand and see that the draft use is already changing, and it's only going to keep coming. As always, Hawthorn is the tall poppy as we're leading the way.

And Essendon are travelling as well as hawks are

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks and Clarkson themselves had a better way to use one example. Their success was built on an entirely different list model - the elite talent of the draft. This is quite clearly a different way than their prior years and there is an assumption that it's going to lead to premierships, some have quoted within 3 years mind you, with little other argument than because Clarko.

My challenge is to argue a little deeper and explain why and how, no one really offers anything better in response.

Im surw you wont accept it, but the alternative after 2016 was to watch the midfield fall off a cliff as has been said many times in here anyway.
The 2009 team had about 8 survivors who made 2012-16. This was bolstered in even parts by trades in whos average age on arrival was 26, and young and not so young kids through the draft and rookie draft.

Some of the players were quite old hence there was discussion hawks had overpaid. For mine the key recruits were hale and lake at each end and smith and hill on each wing

2009 was a very young team whereas this time hawks have been one of the oldest for 4 years. The current 6 trade ins averaged 24 on arrival. We still overpaid in the main but they have taken their spots over departed players down a couple of years average even though three years have passed.

You are right about diminishing returns but the club seems to be backing itself to make it up with late draft project players. I actually think box hill watchers are more excited about these guys than in 2009.
They each seem to have an x factor but need considerable work to be well rounded players. The numbers game tells you some wont get enough opportunity so wont make it.

You keep asking which of our players would play in the next premiership. In 2009 it was 12 players. The other 10 werent even on the list then. The youf obviously wasnt neccesarily in the plan

Bailey 23 Roughead 22 Lewis 23 Mitchell 27 Sewell 25 Birchall 21 Hodge 25 Guerra 27 Franklin 22 Shiels 18 Rioli 20 and rookie Suckling 19 and bruest 19
Of course just eight made it to the 2015 flag

 

[WWSD]

And Essendon are travelling as well as hawks are

Essendon have been travelling well since 2004.

 

[tommyk72]

And Essendon are travelling as well as hawks are

They made the mistake of actually using the number one pick that they had access to.

 

[stfan]

They made the mistake of actually using the number one pick that they had access to.

Twice...

 

[matey]

Scrimshaw seems to have somehow made the jump to "top end talent" with very little evidence

6 ft 4 in, beautiful kick, moves well, strong mark, good hands at ground level for his size and has guts. Will be a gun .... future AA. And we got him for peanuts!

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Is it an economic choice?

Feel like after north, the Hawks would have the most existential fears of spending time at the bottom

 

[matey]

Is it an economic choice?

Feel like after north, the Hawks would have the most existential fears of spending time at the bottom

If a $2 raffle can do it Hawks will be ok at their $90 million new home. A club with more premierships than the tigs that’s hilarious!

 

[Pessimistic]

In 91 after a run of premierships. 9900 members
In ‘15. 72,900. Thered be more than 9900 gold members

 

[PetterdHoisted]

If a $2 raffle can do it Hawks will be ok at their $90 million new home. A club with more premierships than the tigs that’s hilarious!

Yeah true, Hawthorn struggle town ain't, amazing to be gifted a new home base by a rich fan- flight centre guy wasn't it? In same boat as Dees/Bombers there, grass roots and raffles not req.

So Existential is a bit strong, but they have had some stinker crowds even recently - Carlton Hawks ? is this what they are worried about?

 

[hawkman]

1 stinker of a crowd on Mother's Day. The rest have been ok

 

[Sirlemsip]

This thread: You need a top ten pick.

A) We have Scrimshaw who is one and is performing like it.

This thread: There's no evidence that he is going to be good. Trade Bruest & Gunston for top ten picks.

Other supporters - 'you can't keep trading out 1st round picks, you need elite '1st round' talent'

Clarko trades out 4 years' worth of 1st round picks and brings in:
Mitchell @ age 23 (pick 14)
O'Maera @ age 23 ('mini-draft' pick 1 - would clearly have been top 5 if he went to normal draft)
Wingard @ age 25 (pick 6)
Scully @ age 27 (pick 1)
Scrimshaw @ age 21 (pick 7)

Other supporters - 'no, you need to bring them in as 18 year olds or it doesn't count'

 

[Pessimistic]

So the biggest downer on us was 30k plus on a disgusting weather day. (MCG West Coast)

Yet it was the fourth best for the round, third best in victoria, bettered by games under a roof each involving two melbourne teams of about 40k

 

[Wojcinski]

When Geelong traded out many first round picks, it was to fill list gaps left after years of success. Geelong had lots of players in the 28 and over bracket, and lots in the 22 and under with not much in between. Between 2014 and 2018 Geelong was known to push out older players, and in this time made 10 player trades and 3 FA signings. Hawthorn is following the Geelong model of success.

 

[Caj]

6 ft 4 in, beautiful kick, moves well, strong mark, good hands at ground level for his size and has guts. Will be a gun .... future AA. And we got him for peanuts!

All of the bolded is correct, however there's a reason you got him for peanuts.

He is mentally soft as evidenced by his lack of application on the Gold Coast, and he still has a really poor tank which he hasn't managed to address after 3 pre-seasons.

 

[Caj]

Other supporters - 'you can't keep trading out 1st round picks, you need elite '1st round' talent'

Clarko trades out 4 years' worth of 1st round picks and brings in:
Mitchell @ age 23 (pick 14)
O'Maera @ age 23 ('mini-draft' pick 1 - would clearly have been top 5 if he went to normal draft)
Wingard @ age 25 (pick 6)
Scully @ age 27 (pick 1)
Scrimshaw @ age 21 (pick 7)

Other supporters - 'no, you need to bring them in as 18 year olds or it doesn't count'

Mitchell - tick
O'Meara - tick, however you had to spend 2 1st round draft picks to acquire him instead of 1
Wingard - ? still too early to determine what he can become at the Hawks, elite talent if it can be harnessed, but he's been teasing his whole career
Scully - fail, even at his peak he's never been anything better than an average AFL player, he doesn't look to have come back that well from his injury
Scrimshaw - ? Has talent, but does he have the application to make it long term

 

[Pessimistic]

I think the most exciting thing about this is that, if it does lead to success, it will completely change the way list management is looked at. Yet again, Clarko would be a pioneer in the AFL.

The method of measuring "succeed" as a premiership is too narrow. For me, if they hawks make the top 4 (again - like last year) or even a GF in the next four years then it shows that the method has worked. Given the injuries we've had this year, the development of some exciting youngsters, and our form against those clubs in the top 8 (we've nearly lost more to the bottom 10 than the top 8) I don't think this would be unfathomable.

If we make it again, watch everyone who has posted in this thread go quiet as their list management teams completely change their approach to drafting and trading. That being said, I think we've already begun seeing shifts. Look at what Essendon have already done. They haven't had a first rounder for two years (ironically picking up a Hawthorn academy player with their first pick in 2018), and they won't have one (unless they trade out a good player) in 2019.

Think people need to get their heads out of the sand and see that the draft use is already changing, and it's only going to keep coming. As always, Hawthorn is the tall poppy as we're leading the way.

Also look at the total numbers drafted each year. it went up during the Gold Coast and GWS drafts, but the totals since have been closer to the totals found before those drafts. there hasn't been a 12% increase. Rookie blurs those figures though
Players probably staying on lists a little longer on average

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

All of the bolded is correct, however there's a reason you got him for peanuts.

He is mentally soft as evidenced by his lack of application on the Gold Coast, and he still has a really poor tank which he hasn't managed to address after 3 pre-seasons.

He had niggle after niggle, which were poorly managed at the Suns. Couldn’t wait to get out of the joint.

That’s not being “mentally soft”, it’s being smart.

 

[Caj]

He had niggle after niggle, which were poorly managed at the Suns. Couldn’t wait to get out of the joint.

That’s not being “mentally soft”, it’s being smart.

Could you imagine a newly drafted Luke Hodge or Sam Mitchell not giving their all because they were drafted to an interstate club?

No, neither can I.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hodge himself admitted he was a bit of a waster in younger years

Its really refreshing to hear how non hawk posters value these guys now thy have left the club. It didnt always seem so