Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Sirlemsip]

Jees... new opposition supporters in the thread, same old stupid arguments...

Who cares where the new players come from - Draft or trade it doesn't matter.

You are going to struggle to find equal quality replacements when your 'outs' include future hall of famers (if not Legends) in S. Mitchell and Hodge.

In reality:
T. Mitchell ~ S. Mitchell
O'Maera ~ Hodge
Wingard ~ Rioli
Scully ~ Hill
Impey ~ ?

Then we are hoping for others to come along like:
Scrimshaw ~ Birchall
Lewis ~ Roughy
Hanrahan ~ Puopolo
Ross ~ Gunston 2.0

Who cares if we bring in a the traded players at age 23/24/25 rather than drafting 18 year olds?
Every year you might have 3 or 4 first year players that will play with truly high quality output throughout a full season - this year you have Walsh, Rozee, Stack, and not many others. Majority will take until 23 to become consistent players.

 

[Pessimistic]

When the young guys came in before the 2011-2016 run, most of them cracked 20 before being given regular spots

Edit. I looked again. Only 4 players including rookies are currently 19yo

 

[MightyHawks]

There isn't enough quality to go around at 18 clubs, on field or off.

I totally disagree with this

Clubs have got more and more professional in an effort to do better than the opposition

Yet there will always be 6 teams in the bottom 6

If you doubled the talent both on and off field then you'd still have people saying there isn't enough talent around as some clubs will always underperform

 

[Ron The Bear]

I totally disagree with this

Clubs have got more and more professional in an effort to do better than the opposition

Yet there will always be 6 teams in the bottom 6

If you doubled the talent both on and off field then you'd still have people saying there isn't enough talent around as some clubs will always underperform

It's all relative I guess. But not so long ago we had a well-resourced club running a dodgy injection scheme with no record-keeping. Clubs propped up through AFL appointments. And the oldest competition since wartime as clubs hang onto mediocre older players in preference to youth.

 

[MightyHawks]

It's all relative I guess. But not so long ago we had a well-resourced club running a dodgy injection scheme with no record-keeping. Clubs propped up through AFL appointments. And the oldest competition since wartime as clubs hang onto mediocre older players in preference to youth.

Genuine question and not to derail the thread - do you believe that club didn't keep records?

"Clubs propped up through AFL appointments" - there's no question that the fixturing helps to accentuate imbalances in the resources of the clubs

Nothing wrong with older players IMO - clubs like the Dees have culled older players when they shouldn't have

If teams had a list of 52 players then I think you'd find that more older players would still be on senior lists

 

[Richo83]

It's all relative I guess. But not so long ago we had a well-resourced club running a dodgy injection scheme with no record-keeping. Clubs propped up through AFL appointments. And the oldest competition since wartime as clubs hang onto mediocre older players in preference to youth.

I think the preference for older players (which has been trending this way for a while now) is largely driven by a) the fact that the AFL is a very contested and congested game, which devalues skinny teens and b) the game is increasingly structured and coach gameplans are increasingly complicated, meaning many draftees have to go through an apprenticeship to understand the game they're playing. There may be too many clubs but I think good coaching, talent identification and development, and administration matters more than raw talent.

 

[stfan]

In reality:
T. Mitchell ~ S. Mitchell
O'Maera ~ Hodge
Wingard ~ Rioli
Scully ~ Hill
Impey ~ ?

Then we are hoping for others to come along like:
Scrimshaw ~ Birchall
Lewis ~ Roughy
Hanrahan ~ Puopolo
Ross ~ Gunston 2.0

Everyone on that list on the left is a lesser player than the one on the right.

The Mitchells are the closest to being equal, but the others all have massive daylight between then. Note that the Scully of today, with his ankle, is not the same player that he was in the past.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Everyone on that list on the left is a lesser player than the one on the right.

The Mitchells are the closest to being equal, but the others all have massive daylight between then. Note that the Scully of today, with his ankle, is not the same player that he was in the past.

Okay so we aren't as good as one of the best teams of all time... Luckily we don't have to be that good to win a flag.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Genuine question and not to derail the thread - do you believe that club didn't keep records?

"Clubs propped up through AFL appointments" - there's no question that the fixturing helps to accentuate imbalances in the resources of the clubs

Nothing wrong with older players IMO - clubs like the Dees have culled older players when they shouldn't have

If teams had a list of 52 players then I think you'd find that more older players would still be on senior lists

Well, no. But you can't say those who were responsible weren't "professional" people, even if they acted unprofessionally.

They've extracted people from your club to ensure other clubs are run correctly. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast to name a few. Presumably the clubs couldn't attract the required quality on their own.

OK the player age thing is somewhat cyclical, but the number of games played by teenagers after 19 rounds is down by a third on 2012, the first year of 18 teams. The average age of debutants is nearly 21, the highest since 1991. As Richo83 says, in many club systems, a mediocre older player has more currency than a kid with talent.

 

[MightyHawks]

Well, no. But you can't say those who were responsible weren't "professional" people, even if they acted unprofessionally.

They've extracted people from your club to ensure other clubs are run correctly. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast to name a few. Presumably the clubs couldn't attract the required quality on their own.

OK the player age thing is somewhat cyclical, but the number of games played by teenagers after 19 rounds is down by a third on 2012, the first year of 18 teams. The average age of debutants is nearly 21, the highest since 1991. As Richo83 says, in many club systems, a mediocre older player has more currency than a kid with talent.

Some clubs have trouble attracting talent & some clubs have trouble identifying talent. The AFL tried to even out the players, and that didn't even the competition out enough so are now trying to even out the off field talent

To me it seems crazy that the AFL would put so much resources into the Giants and Suns yet not ensure they had really good medical departments

Some clubs don't have the financial resources to pay the best people either

Regarding the player age thing do you think there's value in clubs recruiting players like Puopolo/Smith/Stratton who a bit older than 18 and can have a bigger impact in the first year than the average player?

Is there value in recruiting Gunston for a first round pick instead of using it on an 18 year old? The Crows put the first 2 years and 14 games into him?

If a club had the opportunity to do a Gunston deal every year - trade their first round pick for a 20 year old former first round pick who you've watched develop in their first 2 years and you now have even more certainty that they will be a good player (or trade their second round pick for a 20 year old former second round pick) - do you do that trade every single year?

 

[WWSD]

It depends how you define competitive. Hawks are currently equal 13th on the ladder.

Five losses this year by under 20 points without the number one player at the Hawks. What could’ve been.

 

[WWSD]

I don't think he's given a strong indication either way. If he tells the club he believes he's taken the list as far as he can, they would probably come to terms.

You seem to know a lot about the history of the game and stats so I’ll ask you this question as I’m curious. Do you know the current all-time AFL record for games played without a goal kicked? Stratton hasn’t kicked a goal since 2010 and of course he holds the record for current active listed players. How does he stack up against past players is what I want to know.

 

[Ron The Bear]

You seem to know a lot about the history of the game and stats so I’ll ask you this question as I’m curious. Do you know the current all-time AFL record for games played without a goal kicked? Stratton hasn’t kicked a goal since 2010 and of course he holds the record for current active listed players. How does he stack up against past players is what I want to know.

There is actually a Stats board for this sort of thing but I'll indulge it here .

Stratton is getting up there.

Cons	Player	Clubs	Career	Gms	Gls
219	Dibbs, Charlie	Co,Ge	1924-1936	223	1
214	Carter, Rod	Fi,Sy	1974-1990	293	1
182	Potter, Ted	Co	1963-1972	182	0
172	Malarkey, Gary	Ge	1977-1986	172	0
167*	Stratton, Ben	Ha	2010-2019	184	1
166	Gardiner, Les	Es	1943-1953	166	0
163	Thorp, Vic	Ri	1910-1925	263	7
162	McCormack, Basil	Ri	1925-1936	199	1
162	Shanahan, Jamie K.	St,Me	1992-1999	162	0
157	Regan, Jack	Co	1930-1946	196	3
154	Synman, Ian	St	1958-1969	154	0
151	Gallagher, Jim R.	WB	1951-1960	151	0
150	Sullivan, Tony	Me	1967-1979	191	1
…	…	…	…	…	…
116*	Davis, Phil (eq 59th)	Ad,GWS	2010-2019	158	7
109*	Brown, Nathan J. (eq 73rd)	Co,St	2008-2019	180	7

 

[WWSD]

There is actually a Stats board for this sort of thing but I'll indulge it here .

Stratton is getting up there.

Cons	Player	Clubs	Career	Gms	Gls
219	Dibbs, Charlie	Co,Ge	1924-1936	223	1
214	Carter, Rod	Fi,Sy	1974-1990	293	1
182	Potter, Ted	Co	1963-1972	182	0
172	Malarkey, Gary	Ge	1977-1986	172	0
167*	Stratton, Ben	Ha	2010-2019	184	1
166	Gardiner, Les	Es	1943-1953	166	0
163	Thorp, Vic	Ri	1910-1925	263	7
162	McCormack, Basil	Ri	1925-1936	199	1
162	Shanahan, Jamie K.	St,Me	1992-1999	162	0
157	Regan, Jack	Co	1930-1946	196	3
154	Synman, Ian	St	1958-1969	154	0
151	Gallagher, Jim R.	WB	1951-1960	151	0
150	Sullivan, Tony	Me	1967-1979	191	1
…	…	…	…	…	…
116*	Davis, Phil (eq 59th)	Ad,GWS	2010-2019	158	7
109*	Brown, Nathan J. (eq 73rd)	Co,St	2008-2019	180	7

Cheers! Thanks man.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Regarding the player age thing do you think there's value in clubs recruiting players like Puopolo/Smith/Stratton who a bit older than 18 and can have a bigger impact in the first year than the average player?

Is there value in recruiting Gunston for a first round pick instead of using it on an 18 year old? The Crows put the first 2 years and 14 games into him?

If a club had the opportunity to do a Gunston deal every year - trade their first round pick for a 20 year old former first round pick who you've watched develop in their first 2 years and you now have even more certainty that they will be a good player (or trade their second round pick for a 20 year old former second round pick) - do you do that trade every single year?

Good question. I guess if your club's judgement is impeccable in that area and you're trying to bolster an already-strong position, then you go for the ready-made player. The risk is that you miss a Franklin or a Judd, but of course those players are exceedingly rare. The club usually requires an existing strong culture to integrate the player; it often doesn't work for struggling clubs. It's not generally a way up from the bottom. And if the player doesn't fire right away, it can lead to supporter angst as they have a natural preference for "home-grown" players.

In Hawthorn's case a relevant question is whether, following the departure of say Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Birchall (after Rioli, Hodge, Gibson, Mitchell, Lewis, Hill) the strong culture still exists. It needs to be rebuilt to some extent.

St.Kilda/Draper is a very interesting scenario. Offering $1.8m "sight unseen" at the top level demonstrates extreme confidence in someone's opinion.

 

[Dede]

Five losses this year by under 20 points without the number one player at the Hawks. What could’ve been.

But the number 1 player this year hurt his knee and will be out all next year? Impey imo been the most important player for the hawks and given it looks likely Smith might move it looks bleak..

 

[Hawkk]

But the number 1 player this year hurt his knee and will be out all next year? Impey imo been the most important player for the hawks and given it looks likely Smith might move it looks bleak..

Impey has been great, but honestly our best player so far this year (he was a steal for what it’s worth)

We will get be getting the reigning Brownlow medalist back for what it’s worth

 

[its free real estate]

And the oldest competition since wartime as clubs hang onto mediocre older players in preference to youth.

I wonder if this is because sports science (“sports science”) is so much better. The major grand slam winners in tennis seem very old by historical standards, the youngest is Djokovic at 32, which is older than the age Pete Sampras retired

 

[HeHateMe]

But the number 1 player this year hurt his knee and will be out all next year? Impey imo been the most important player for the hawks and given it looks likely Smith might move it looks bleak..

Henserson is our best player this year.

But....
Not wrong that impey is a massive loss and imo a harder hole to cover.

 

[Pessimistic]

Everyone on that list on the left is a lesser player than the one on the right.

The Mitchells are the closest to being equal, but the others all have massive daylight between then. Note that the Scully of today, with his ankle, is not the same player that he was in the past.

If you think about it, this would be the case for every club replacing players...due to the fact the latter group has never played out their career yet.

its all potential and opinion. And lets be honest, trawl through BF and you can find some terrible predictions/opinions given hindsight. This thread needs to be looked at through that lens

 

[Cadillac]

Geelong is the benchmark IMO.

Look at the players introduced in the past two years - Kelly (25), Atkins (23), Ratugolea (21), Henry (20), Miers (20), Clark (18). Throw in Dahlhaus, Rohan and Ablett and there's nine new faces who are pretty much best 22 every week.

How many more average games from Dahlhaus until his spot in the side is questioned ?

 

[Ron The Bear]

How many more average games from Dahlhaus until his spot in the side is questioned ?

At face value his output is underwhelming compared to 2-3 years ago. Picked every single week though, so must be fulfilling the role asked of him.

 

[tommyk72]

To what?

2013 26.01 2nd oldest team
2014 25.85 4th
2015 26.82 1st
2016 26.49 2nd
2017 26.14 2nd
2018 26.13 1st
2019 26.43 1st

So essentially our lost age is being kept extremely similar to the composition of our three peat. Makes sense to me.

 

[Upgrayedd]

But the number 1 player this year hurt his knee and will be out all next year? Impey imo been the most important player for the hawks and given it looks likely Smith might move it looks bleak..

Dont think Smith will move

And Impey is a huge loss.I dont think he's been our "Best" player however he's had his absolute best year and that year when players go from good to elite, Earlier in the season when our forwardline Cohesion was suffering he went up forward and helped spark some good inside 50 movements as a high forward. Scrimshaw who was huge for us went down and he went back as that general role of dictating the play and movement and we looked great as well.

Absolute loss but i think Scrimshaw should grow next year and we can cover the Impey loss. Hurts however and you know he's the type of player coaches love, That level headed guy who can go plug a hole anywhere you need and go a good job at.

 

[Upgrayedd]

To what?

2013 26.01 2nd oldest team
2014 25.85 4th
2015 26.82 1st
2016 26.49 2nd
2017 26.14 2nd
2018 26.13 1st
2019 26.43 1st

Oh noes we're on average 0.8% older then the current premiers, time to cut 40% of our list and play the youth!

**** man, May as well post a list that we carry a fair amount of Ranga's and as such we are disadvantaged at Perth due to the sunnier climate.