Opinion Can the Hawks make finals in 2024?

[FisherHawk]

We won 9 games in 2006 and went on to play finals in 07. Admittedly Mitch and Hodge had 5 years in the system and Bud and Rough were coming into their prime. I think its very realistic to go better than 7 wins and maybe win another 5 to make it 12 next year. Can only hope.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I think we’ll win 9-11 games this year. 11 games probably won’t scrape into the 8 in a 23 game season. Would be ecstatic to be wrong but I think we are following Adelaide’s present trajectory and next year will be our cusp of finals seasons.

 

[cs61]

On my count 15 very winnable games or games that are 50/50, just based on my view of our form last year. I think any game at MCG or Tassie we are going to be a very hard side to beat against pretty much everyone given our run and the way we play. I would think we could confidently aim for 9 of these. If we want to make finals we probably need to win 10 or 11 out of 15.

Bombers at G
Cats at G
North at Marvel
Swans at G
Dogs at Marvel
Saints at UTas
Lions at Marvel
Crows at G
Giants at UTas
Tigers at G
Eagles at Optus
Dockers at UTas
Blues at G
Tigers at G
North at Utas

Next are the games where opponent would start favourite and we'll have to play at our very best to be a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if we create an upset and win 1 or 2 like last year that we aren't expected to. We also match up OK against the Pies so some might argue they could be in the above group. If we want finals probably need to win 3 or more of these games.

Demons at G
Pies at AO
Suns at Herritage Bank
Port at AO
Geelong at GMHBA
Pies at G
Crows at AO
GWS at Manuka

It's not an easy draw, it won't hand us a finals spot. But if we are good enough there is an opportunity to improve on last year, and there are some very winnable games if we are good enough. Also its possible the draw can become a bit meaningless as a lot can come down to when you get a side. Carlton and Fremantle in the first couple of months were a different side to later in the year. We got Freo at the worst time who had set themselves and their season's chances on that game, where they were being walked over only weeks prior to that. Similarly we went from a side that anyone would beat in first two rounds, and Footy Classified were saying how unfair it was that some sides would get us twice ... including the Saints and Dogs... both who we ended up beating one of the two games, and we ended up being a tricky side to play against later in the year.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

On my count 15 very winnable games or games that are 50/50, just based on my view of our form last year. I think any game at MCG or Tassie we are going to be a very hard side to beat against pretty much everyone given our run and the way we play. I would think we could confidently aim for 9 of these. If we want to make finals we probably need to win 10 or 11 out of 15.

Bombers at G
Cats at G
North at Marvel
Swans at G
Dogs at Marvel
Saints at UTas
Lions at Marvel
Crows at G
Giants at UTas
Tigers at G
Eagles at Optus
Dockers at UTas
Blues at G
Tigers at G
North at Utas

Next are the games where opponent would start favourite and we'll have to play at our very best to be a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if we create an upset and win 1 or 2 like last year that we aren't expected to. We also match up OK against the Pies so some might argue they could be in the above group. If we want finals probably need to win 3 or more of these games.

Demons at G
Pies at AO
Suns at Herritage Bank
Port at AO
Geelong at GMHBA
Pies at G
Crows at AO
GWS at Manuka

It's not an easy draw, it won't hand us a finals spot. But if we are good enough there is an opportunity to improve on last year, and there are some very winnable games if we are good enough. Also its possible the draw can become a bit meaningless as a lot can come down to when you get a side. Carlton and Fremantle in the first couple of months were a different side to later in the year. We got Freo at the worst time who had set themselves and their season's chances on that game, where they were being walked over only weeks prior to that. Similarly we went from a side that anyone would beat in first two rounds, and Footy Classified were saying how unfair it was that some sides would get us twice ... including the Saints and Dogs... both who we ended up beating one of the two games.

Blues should be in the other group. They should be as good as this year and they thumped us with ease when we played. Let's not get carried away with the Blues side of the past and how they were our bunnies for years. The Demons were too and currently their on a streak against us. On paper they should be beating us comfortably at this stage. 2025 however different story.

 

[Brant]

The Demons were too and currently their on a streak against us. On paper they should be beating us comfortably at this stage. 2025 however different story.

That would be a steak of about 1. Didn't we draw with them just last year?

 

[Sixpence]

That would be a steak of about 1. Didn't we draw with them just last year?

No, lost by 10.

 

[Brant]

No, lost by 10.

Stupid football...

 

[FB19]

On my count 15 very winnable games or games that are 50/50, just based on my view of our form last year. I think any game at MCG or Tassie we are going to be a very hard side to beat against pretty much everyone given our run and the way we play. I would think we could confidently aim for 9 of these. If we want to make finals we probably need to win 10 or 11 out of 15.

Bombers at G
Cats at G
North at Marvel
Swans at G
Dogs at Marvel
Saints at UTas
Lions at Marvel
Crows at G
Giants at UTas
Tigers at G
Eagles at Optus
Dockers at UTas
Blues at G
Tigers at G
North at Utas

Next are the games where opponent would start favourite and we'll have to play at our very best to be a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if we create an upset and win 1 or 2 like last year that we aren't expected to. We also match up OK against the Pies so some might argue they could be in the above group. If we want finals probably need to win 3 or more of these games.

Demons at G
Pies at AO
Suns at Herritage Bank
Port at AO
Geelong at GMHBA
Pies at G
Crows at AO
GWS at Manuka

It's not an easy draw, it won't hand us a finals spot. But if we are good enough there is an opportunity to improve on last year, and there are some very winnable games if we are good enough. Also it’s possible the draw can become a bit meaningless as a lot can come down to when you get a side. Carlton and Fremantle in the first couple of months were a different side to later in the year. We got Freo at the worst time who had set themselves and their season's chances on that game, where they were being walked over only weeks prior to that. Similarly we went from a side that anyone would beat in first two rounds, and Footy Classified were saying how unfair it was that some sides would get us twice ... including the Saints and Dogs... both who we ended up beating one of the two games, and we ended up being a tricky side to play against later in the year.

I think injuries will be a critical factor given our good run this year. Of the tough group hard to see more than 2 wins and in the other group I expect we are significant underdogs in 5 games (swans dogs lions crows blues). Pinch 2 of those then split the others would be 9 wins. To be honest would be very happy with that development and especially if some fringe players come on well as part of it.

 

[Mitch75]

I for one, will be very disappointed if we don’t win 12 games next year. We’ve added 80-100 goals potency to our forward line in the off season and the midfield is starting to hit that ripe match experience of between 50-100 games each. It will be disappointing if, despite the seemingly tough draw, we can’t win 12-14 games. The start of the year will be crucial though. Could conceivably be 0-5 after the first five games, in which case another bottom 4 finish beckons. Or, with a bit of luck, we could be 3-2 and looking primed to have a tilt at finals. For those who think I’m dreaming, it’s worth remembering that Richmond couldn’t hit the side of a barn twelve months before they won the 2017 flag. And Melbourne were similarly shite two years out from their recent premiership.

 

[tl92]

I for one, will be very disappointed if we don’t win 12 games next year. We’ve added 80-100 goals potency to our forward line in the off season and the midfield is starting to hit that ripe match experience of between 50-100 games each. It will be disappointing if, despite the seemingly tough draw, we can’t win 12-14 games. The start of the year will be crucial though. Could conceivably be 0-5 after the first five games, in which case another bottom 4 finish beckons. Or, with a bit of luck, we could be 3-2 and looking primed to have a tilt at finals. For those who think I’m dreaming, it’s worth remembering that Richmond couldn’t hit the side of a barn twelve months before they won the 2017 flag. And Melbourne were similarly shite two years out from their recent premiership.

Richmond and Melbourne had both played finals in the years before their drop down the ladder. I love your optimism but don’t think they’re overly comparable situations. I think we will improve, where we finish could be anywhere from 7-16. The competition is so even that injuries and a bit of luck will go a long way.

 

[kirbatron]

I think deep down we dont know (just yet) how good this squad will become... wouldn't be shocked if we won 6 or won 10.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I for one, will be very disappointed if we don’t win 12 games next year. We’ve added 80-100 goals potency to our forward line in the off season and the midfield is starting to hit that ripe match experience of between 50-100 games each. It will be disappointing if, despite the seemingly tough draw, we can’t win 12-14 games. The start of the year will be crucial though. Could conceivably be 0-5 after the first five games, in which case another bottom 4 finish beckons. Or, with a bit of luck, we could be 3-2 and looking primed to have a tilt at finals. For those who think I’m dreaming, it’s worth remembering that Richmond couldn’t hit the side of a barn twelve months before they won the 2017 flag. And Melbourne were similarly shite two years out from their recent premiership.

Melbourne finished fourth, helping send us on our way in straight sets, before dropping down and then surging straight back up and winning the flag.

 

[FB19]

I for one, will be very disappointed if we don’t win 12 games next year. We’ve added 80-100 goals potency to our forward line in the off season and the midfield is starting to hit that ripe match experience of between 50-100 games each. It will be disappointing if, despite the seemingly tough draw, we can’t win 12-14 games. The start of the year will be crucial though. Could conceivably be 0-5 after the first five games, in which case another bottom 4 finish beckons. Or, with a bit of luck, we could be 3-2 and looking primed to have a tilt at finals. For those who think I’m dreaming, it’s worth remembering that Richmond couldn’t hit the side of a barn twelve months before they won the 2017 flag. And Melbourne were similarly shite two years out from their recent premiership.

Sorry you mean when Melbourne won the 2021 Gold Logie right? #covidflagsdontcount

 

[Mitch75]

Richmond and Melbourne had both played finals in the years before their drop down the ladder. I love your optimism but don’t think they’re overly comparable situations. I think we will improve, where we finish could be anywhere from 7-16. The competition is so even that injuries and a bit of luck will go a long way.

My point is a team’s development isn’t always linear. And hopefully ours won’t be. Richmond won 8 games with a percentage of under 80% the year before they won the flag… Melb in 2019 won a measly 5 games with a percentage of under 80%. I agree with the poster above who split the games into winnable and not-so-winnable. Looking at those lists, we could win 10 of those games against teams in that first bracket. And two or three wins against the others is possible. I don’t subscribe to the theory that teams like Carlton, who beat us comfortably this year, will surely do it again next year. That’s bs.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

That would be a steak of about 1. Didn't we draw with them just last year?

Take that game out a couple of years back we haven't beaten them since Cyril's last match (2018).

 

[dixyland]

They're likely still a bottom four side. Better than WCE and Norf, but in a battle with Richmond, Geelong, GC, Dogs, and Freo for the next few places.

 

[KermitJagger]

If there are any parallels that may work for us, it'd either be Fremantle 2021 to 2022, Brisbane 2018 to 2019 or Adelaide 2022 to 2023 if they hadn't screwed themselves over at the end of the season. Similar age profiles, but all evidence that things can change quickly.

I think Melbourne, Richmond and recently Freo are more evidence of progression not being linear. For everyone saying we won't see good progress until 2025, I'd argue that Melbourne and Richmond are examples of where young squads hit good form early before a slight correction in the opposite direction. We might do that this year, we might make and impact finals, we certainly did back in 2008 to great effect.

Hard to know what happens though. Just expect anything.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

No,
I think we should be winning an about 10 games next season. I don’t think we will drop games like Richmond, GWS, crows ect; that we did this season, and a bit of natural improvement should see us around that mark.

 

[Turly]

Here's the core of our list that will be 27 and under come the start of the 2024 season:

27 - Hardwick
25 - Scrimshaw
24 - CJ
23 - Blanck
21 - Mitchell, DGB, Serong
20 - D'Ambrosio
19 - Weddle, Macdonald

25 - Meek, Reeves, Nash, Worpel, Morrison
23 - Maginess
22 - Newcombe, Day
20 - Ward, Mackenzie
19 - Hustwaite

27 - Chol
25 - Lewis
24 - Moore
21 - MacDonald, Ginnivan, Butler
20 - Ramsden
19 - JOS, Bennetts

That's a promising list on paper. IMO the best players amongst that group are/will be - Newcombe, Day, Ward, Mackenzie, MacDonald, Moore, Lewis, Weddle. Most of them have years of development left.

I reckon we will be pushing for finals in 2025/2026, when most of that group are entering the 24/25 territory. It would be a huge success of we pushed for finals this coming season given the age of most of the players, which is why I think we will miss out again and end up in the same range we've been in over the last four seasons.

The main issue with the list above is obviously the lack of KPP. Hopefully over the next two years we are able to poach or trade for them. Ideally Ramdsen, Blanck, DGB, Serong (and Weddle?) develop and emerge as legitimate KPP's.

Amon missing from that list too (unless I’m blind which is definitely possible).

 

[Turly]

Amon missing from that list too (unless I’m blind which is definitely possible).

Whoops. 27 and under

 

[dermott]

That would be a steak of about 1. Didn't we draw with them just last year?

2021 we drew with them

 

[wizzard400]

It's the offseason, there's lots to ponder.

Can Hawthorn make the jump and contend for finals in 2024?

If you can't be optimistic about your side in the off-season you're likely following an absolutely trash side, so I'm going to present the case for, in part.
I know others will present the case against, likely highlighting that we need to go passed others, that development and improvement isn't always linear, what if injuries etc.

But let's focus on what we know and what went right in 2023.

Remember when we “gutted the midfield” and "will struggle to win 3 games"? Well what actually happened was that we went from the worst clearance side in the comp to amongst the best in the course of half a season with the new group.
By the end of 2023 this new Hawthorn midfield, the youngest in the comp, averaged more Centre Clearances per game than every side in the comp, bar the top 4 finishing Power and Lions sides.

Now while we took a good third of the season to take advantage of the new midfields performances at the clearances(no doubt hindered by the loss of Lewis over that time, Gunston heading North and McEvoy retiring), according to Rob McCartney on Hawks Insiders from Round 10, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won. During that period Hawthorn played 9 games against the eventual finalists, knocked off the Dogs and lost to the Tigers in the final moments of the game.
We did all this with what could often be described as a makeshift or clumsy forward line, and will head into 2024 with 3 additions via trade, of which all are capable of at least 20 goals each(some might suggest that Chol and Ginnivan are more than capable of double that).

In the Fig.1 overview below you can see that despite our slow start the year these young Hawks defeated their fair share of top 8 sides, and lost as many close ones as sides that were tipped to play finals.
It's not beyond the realms that Hawthorn could've had 10 wins on the board by the end of 2023, and what makes for a strong argument that we have a good chance of rising is that we enter 2024 without trying to facilitate so much change in the most important part of the ground.

Fig.1
View attachment 1854047
(D) = draw


Remember also when “the youngsters will struggle to run out the season”? The stats below in fig.2 show that the youngsters and the side as a whole continued to push hard even against much more seasoned sides, and as I posted in the preseason thread the system with which we played with over that period is a more than fair chance to become the baseline of what our accepted output should be in 2024.
Does that mean we sit 1st in numerous CD rankings in 2024? No.
Does that mean we win the flag? No.
Does it mean we win enough games to make finals? Not necessarily.

But it does mean that while our midfield and forward half took at least 7-8 rounds to come out of the fog(and return of Lewis), we should be far more competitive from the very first bounce in 2024, and we should be more than capable of winning the majority of games against sides in the bottom 6, of which we do have quite a few, considering our 16th placed finish in 2023.

fig.2
View attachment 1854043

In short, we could have quite easily had 10 wins in 2023, despite the rebuilding of the midfield and having Fergus Greene as our key forward for a third of the year, and with that in mind for 2024 I'd be amazed if the internal benchmark for a successful season is anything less than 10 wins with so much growth to come across the list and the additions to our forward half...certainly after my quick look at the draw I think that 10 wins is entirely achievable and that puts us right in the frame to be challenging for finals should we sneak a couple of unexpected wins early in the year.


What say you?

There’s certainly a compelling case to be made.

But like you rightly pointed out, we would need a few things to fall our way. The biggest of which I would argue is luck with injuries. We don’t have the same depth as other sides have.

Out of all the teams that finished 6th to 15th I feel all of them could make finals bar maybe Richmond. So it’s going to be a bit of a log-jam to see who ends up making it.

 

[Gut Runner]

I think the forward line will take time to gel... We've added some good players but they need to find a way to work together.

Key defender still an issue.

I see these issues as the most likely as to why we don't make finals.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

There’s certainly a compelling case to be made.

But like you rightly pointed out, we would need a few things to fall our way. The biggest of which I would argue is luck with injuries. We don’t have the same depth as other sides have.

Out of all the teams that finished 6th to 15th I feel all of them could make finals bar maybe Richmond. So it’s going to be a bit of a log-jam to see who ends up making it.

Injuries will play their part, no doubt.
But I actually don't think our depth is too much of an issue, particularly if you put together a 22. You'll likely have guys like Morrison, Frost, Meek, MacKenzie, DGB, Mitchell and maybe even Jiath, Impey and Gunston all playing at Box Hill if you do.

As it stands in 2007 our list was 16th for experience with an average games played of 47.
In 2024 our average games played at Round 1 will be 59.6.

In 2007 our average was 22.7, while in 2024 it will be 23.7.

In 2007 we had Franklin kick 73 goals as a standout.
Rough 40.
Boyle 32.
Dixon 24.
Hodge(23), Lewis(14) and Crawf(10) combined for 47 goals from the middle.

Can we get 55 out of Lewis, 40 out of Chol, 35 from Punky and 40 combined from Wiz and Ginni, and then also get 45 goals from Moore(20), Newcombe(15), Worpel(10)? How many can Croc, Amon and Weddle kick?

I don't think it's beyond the realms of belief that our forward line which is probably the most potent it's been since Rough/Cyril retired can get the job done each week, particularly if our midfield continues its progression at the coalface.

Regardless with Wiz, Chol, Punky and Ginnivan in there we're likely going to be treated to some pretty exciting goals in 2024.

 

[cryptor]

Injuries will play their part, no doubt.
But I actually don't think our depth is too much of an issue, particularly if you put together a 22. You'll likely have guys like Morrison, Frost, Meek, MacKenzie, DGB, Mitchell and maybe even Jiath, Impey and Gunston all playing at Box Hill if you do.

As it stands in 2007 our list was 16th for experience with an average games played of 47.
In 2024 our average games played at Round 1 will be 59.6.

In 2007 our average was 22.7, while in 2024 it will be 23.7.

In 2007 we had Franklin kick 73 goals as a standout.
Rough 40.
Boyle 32.
Dixon 24.
Hodge(23), Lewis(14) and Crawf(10) combined for 47 goals from the middle.

Can we get 55 out of Lewis, 40 out of Chol, 35 from Punky and 40 combined from Wiz and Ginni, and then also get 45 goals from Moore(20), Newcombe(15), Worpel(10)? How many can Croc, Amon and Weddle kick?

I don't think it's beyond the realms of belief that our forward line which is probably the most potent it's been since Rough/Cyril retired can get the job done each week, particularly if our midfield continues its progression at the coalface.

Regardless with Wiz, Chol, Punky and Ginnivan in there we're likely going to be treated to some pretty exciting goals in 2024.

54 goals from Breust in 2024. Has increased his previous season tally by 7 goals each season for the last few seasons.