Changes/discussion v Carlton round 8

[dlanod]

Reminder: still looking for preview writers for week 11-13 and later in the year!

 

[Tom14]

Joyce has been decent defensively I reckon. In his 5 games he's had 10 intercept marks, ~5 intercept disposals/game and has only lost 1 of 9 contested one on ones.

Do have to caveat that he's given away 10 free kicks in 5 games - equal most for us with Joe who has played all 7. Fair few of those would have led to shots on goal as well. Has the highest rate of free kicks against of any defender - but small sample size and he's still learning.

 

[JasRulz63]

Do have to caveat that he's given away 10 free kicks in 5 games - equal most for us with Joe who has played all 7. Fair few of those would have led to shots on goal as well. Has the highest rate of free kicks against of any defender - but small sample size and he's still learning.

To be fair, half of those were against the Bulldogs where if he looked at Ugle Hagan the wrong way, he'd give up a free kick. A quick review of that game, showed that two of his free kicks led to goals (one JUH had marked anyway, and the other was that bs "block" off the ball that only Dogs forwards get). Two of the free kicks he gave away were silly HTBs.

 

[mpal6]

Do have to caveat that he's given away 10 free kicks in 5 games - equal most for us with Joe who has played all 7. Fair few of those would have led to shots on goal as well. Has the highest rate of free kicks against of any defender - but small sample size and he's still learning.

He's getting pulled up far more times than other defenders, it's easier to ping a Joyce than a May for the same infringement. Free kicks is one area I won't hold against him.

He's less than 20 games into his career and still improving. I'd give him a good consistent run to see if he can settle down one tall defensive post.

 

[mpal6]

Joyce was rubbish against GWS, so why presume he will be good against Carlton. Why drop an in form player for an out of form player? As for the need for a ‘bigger player’ - Joyce is 2 or 3 centimetres taller. Not a lot there. If I flipped the people bagging Lester the bird, it is less than the distance from my knuckle to the tip of my finger. Lester has superior athleticism and he showed his intentions as a defender yesterday - PUNCH and SPOIL. Dropping Lester for Joyce would be madness.

My last word. Over to you Fagan.

I've a lot of respect for both Lester and Answerth for the commitment and attitude they show everytime they step on the field. But I don't rate either for a clash against top 4 teams. Valuable depth sure, not best 22.

Based on whom we have on the list, Joyce has the size and pace to keep up with talls. Joyce can play on say a Hawkins and provide a contest. More importantly it releases Andrews to do intercept, which he can't if Lester is playing. Balance looks better with Joyce inspite of his relative shortcomings in other areas.

 

[CarterS]

We have 2 very winnable home games after this, if we can win this one we have a big chance of being 8-2.

I think Carlton played themselves back into form on the weekend and this will be a tougher game than people think.

 

[Dalions]

I think Carlton played themselves back into form on the weekend and this will be a tougher game than people think.

No doubt they would have gained a bit of confidence after beating the witches hats but to say they played themselves into form from a glorified training drill is a bit of a stretch.
I am not for one minute suggesting that Carlton will be easy beats, we will have to be on, especially down there.

 

[mpal6]

We have 2 very winnable home games after this, if we can win this one we have a big chance of being 8-2.

I think Carlton played themselves back into form on the weekend and this will be a tougher game than people think.

I'm also thinking they would've been under much bigger pressure had they lost or just scraped through against west coast, ala Bulldogs game against us. Carlton winning by 100 works very well for us, we can expect a bit more relaxed build up.

 

[McIvor]

He's getting pulled up far more times than other defenders, it's easier to ping a Joyce than a May for the same infringement. Free kicks is one area I won't hold against him.

He's less than 20 games into his career and still improving. I'd give him a good consistent run to see if he can settle down one tall defensive post.

I hate that umps are such whmps that they are harsher on players of the likes of Joyce or players in there first 1-4 years than the likes of Cotchin, Pendles, Selwood and known players like May. Cotchin did the exact same thing as Kiddy, albeit he didnt correctly dispose of it (Kiddy i think handballed it) and its not HTB, but it is for Kiddy. It angers me to no end even in neutral games.

 

[Dalions]

I hate that umps are such whmps that they are harsher on players of the likes of Joyce or players in there first 1-4 years than the likes of Cotchin, Pendles, Selwood and known players like May. Cotchin did the exact same thing as Kiddy, albeit he didnt correctly dispose of it (Kiddy i think handballed it) and its not HTB, but it is for Kiddy. It angers me to no end even in neutral games.

Not sure with the Cotchin one but the Umpire was definitely on the wrong side of the play to make a definitive call on Kiddy.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Carlton board seems very confident, 108-point point wins will do that for you. I really want to see players come in who will rip into Carlton, and Dev and Prior are the ones who will definitely fill that role.

 

[jjami15]

Carlton board seems very confident, 108-point point wins will do that for you. I really want to see players come in who will rip into Carlton, and Dev and Prior are the ones who will definitely fill that role.

One thing is for sure that these two lads don’t mind the hard stuff. I would hope that these are the two brought in but not confident at all.

 

[dlanod]

Expected score ladder after round 7 -




Main takeaway for me is that the Saints have been very lucky with their opponent's conversion rate; and the Dees are massively performing over expectation in both offense and defense.

Copying this across because I did notice one particular outlier at sixth in actual ladder position versus their expected score...

 

[Quested]

Joyce in for Lester
Prior for Rich
Ah Chee for Zorko
Fort for Gunston

Could also be a good game for Lyons bigger body in the mid.

I'm not a fan of too many changes, but I think Gunston needs to come out, so whether that's Fort, Robertson or Fullerton I don't mind.

 

[BrisVegasDru]

Is he injured?

i read he suffered a concussion incident in the vfl

 

[Gadzorks]

On Gunston - after Charlie's haul last week he mentioned Gunston as important.

Along the lines of Gunston's knowledge and his experience is teaching the forwards a lot and improving cohesion.

Sometimes individual stats tell the story, sometimes they don't.

Gunston will stay until the coaches and players believe his experience is no longer necessary.

And that is not now. It's taken weeks to get to this point, can easily fall apart again.

 

[Gadzorks]

Because his disposal and tank are below average. Lyons is will probably always be the preferred option.


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Matho as sub would be awesome. Lift the team with his energy, wrecking ball on tired opposition bodies.

I'd like to see that.

 

[twhowler]

HUGE match I reckon.

5-2 is a real tipping point as this part of the season. 6-2 is a great launching pad. 5-3 is middling. We also have away games for the rest of the year against Adelaide / Collingwood / Melbourne / St Kilda which all loom as more difficult. So if we lose this i struggle to see us avoiding more than 7 losses and hence not being top 4.

We would also lose a lot of the 'no good away from home' chat if we won in Melbourne on a Friday night. So far this year our TOUGH away games, against parochial crowds, have been a shocking loss vs Port and a lacklustre loss v dogs. We have done well to win on the road since but one game was a neutral one vs lowly North, and win v Giants at their second home ground at which they haven't won at since 2019.

Saints / Pies / Port / Geelong all have pretty easy matches. If we lose we lose a game to them all.

As to the match, simple to say but win the midfield and we should be fine. I would replace Zorko's midfield minutes with Berry and get him targeting Cripps. Carlton's midfield has been derided as too slow but that mainly applies when they don't win the ball. We should be wary of being too small ie. a starting CBA of Neale / Clugga / Ashcroft. Ashcroft has been fantastic but does drift in and out of games. To be expected with someone in their first year on the ball. The beauty of Dunkley is he gives us some size but also actually gets the ball.

My CBA midfield would be:

Neale / Dunkley / Berry most minutes
Followed by McCluggage / Aschroft
Cameos from Rayner / Bailey

Wing a combo of Wilmot / Ah Chee (comes in for Zorko) / Bailey / Clugga

I'm not sure what the key is but we have to figure out a way to get Rayner more involved. We often speak about how much of a bull he is. He is also highly skillful and calm. The left-foot pass in the Collingwood game off one step, in the second quarter, to Wilmot maybe? Sublime. On the wing on the weekend he got it in traffic and put out a perfectly weighted pass to a player running right on the boundary line who didn't have to break stride.

Prior straight swap for Rich.

I would bring Joyce in because i think he is a break-glass for Curnow.

So Joyce to Silvagni, Andrews to Mckay, Payne to Curnow. Payne's athleticism gives him the nod on Curnow. Harris has a good tank too and McKay is getting up the ground a lot.

Daniher and Hippy told to do what they need to every week - especially whomever is on Weitering - get the ball to ground as a minimum.

The other key to the forward line at Docklands is space. It's funny how everyone talks about it being fast and a key forward heaven. It being smaller i think the challenge is to give your forwards space and being able to use the corrier. The dogs cluttered us up a lot in round 3 on both fronts. We need 2/3 of our key forwards leading up the ground and creating space. And we need to be braver with ball movement. The 45 kicks / corridor kicks always look a bit risker at Docklands. We just would not pull the trigger v the dogs. We had no Rich but he has not been brave this year anyway. Kiddy was very out of sorts that night, i hope he has been told you are replacing Rich, get the ball in your hands, take the game on. Prior should be given the chance too - he's a good kick and importantly keeps the ball low. Mckenna is the other option to run it out. We have NO dare last time so let's hope we have learnt!

 

[McIvor]

On Gunston - after Charlie's haul last week he mentioned Gunston as important.

Along the lines of Gunston's knowledge and his experience is teaching the forwards a lot and improving cohesion.

Sometimes individual stats tell the story, sometimes they don't.

Gunston will stay until the coaches and players believe his experience is no longer necessary.

And that is not now. It's taken weeks to get to this point, can easily fall apart again.

Gunston could be important for the fact that Weitering may match up on him and Jack is smart enough to lead into spaces thereby pulling Weitering out of where we want him to be and ultimately sacrificing his own game, which would be pretty smart.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Gunston could be important for the fact that Weitering may match up on him and Jack is smart enough to lead into spaces thereby pulling Weitering out of where we want him to be and ultimately sacrificing his own game, which would be pretty smart.

Not happening

 

[Elixuh]

Our defenders will have their work cutout for them to nullify (mainly) Curnow but also McKay. Both have been getting a big ride with the umps in front of goal as well.

I'd persist with Gunston. He is at the very least keeping a defender accountable + using some smarts. At this stage I'd back him in and then reassess at the bye if necessary.

I think if we keep our pressure up around the ball we can make Carlton look very second rate.

 

[Tassie4ever]

Not sure with the Cotchin one but the Umpire was definitely on the wrong side of the play to make a definitive call on Kiddy.

I'm not one to bag out the umpires as our game is a bugger to adjudicate. BUT if anyone thinks having 4 field umpires has improved our game I give you yesterdays Collingwood game. As someone who dislikes intensively everything black and white I thought their last quarter effort was a disgrace. As one of the commentators observed the Collingwood player being benched with a bleeding head might just be a clue to a head high contact. Just maybe.

Our game on Saturday featured a couple of howlers but it didn't determine the outcome. Yesterdays clangers could well have.

The other continuing mystery.to me is the ruck contests which are often a pick it out of your bum thing. Let them go at it I say.

Stop interfering with our game.

End of rant.

Sent from my SM-N920I using Tapatalk

 

[Tom14]

Our defenders will have their work cutout for them to nullify (mainly) Curnow but also McKay. Both have been getting a big ride with the umps in front of goal as well.

I'd persist with Gunston. He is at the very least keeping a defender accountable + using some smarts. At this stage I'd back him in and then reassess at the bye if necessary.

I think if we keep our pressure up around the ball we can make Carlton look very second rate.

Excluding playing Norf and the remaining 14 fit players at west coast, Carlton are averaging just 68 points for a game. Curnow playing well, but McKay has been dreadful at kicking for goal and the rest of the forwards don't do much.

Take out our two games against our weakest opponents (Norf and Freo by ladder, though you could argue GWS) and we average 88 points for game.

The only hesitation I have about this one is our form away from home.

 

[Elixuh]

Excluding playing Norf and the remaining 14 fit players at west coast, Carlton are averaging just 68 points for a game. Curnow playing well, but McKay has been dreadful at kicking for goal and the rest of the forwards don't do much.

Take out our two games against our weakest opponents (Norf and Freo by ladder, though you could argue GWS) and we average 88 points for game.

The only hesitation I have about this one is our form away from home.

Yeah, pressuring the ball will kill their supply and nullify Curnow. Not so worried about McKay but he takes a lot of nice grabs, so it is just dependent on whether he can kick or not.

 

[martinson]

All of the players suggested as possible ins wouldn't disgrace themselves so not concerned which way we go. Though I do have my own preferences like everyone else.

I'd like to find a way of getting Fort and Ah Chee in but thinking neither will happen.

Payne should go to Curnow match up wise. Harris to McKay.

Zorko is a big out, he gives us so much more energy , but win the M/F and we win this game.

Our backs are good enough to cover their forwards if their M/F doesn't get off the chain. Other end we need to put some defensive work into Weitering because he's going to outmark and probably out position any of the talls we have there.

 

[M Malice]

Does Berry go straight to Cripps at the opening bounce or do we wait and see how the game unfolds?