Prediction Changes v Freo (3:15pm Sunday @ Marvel)

[Shacf501]

Vanders hasn't played VFL since 2023, I have to imagine the match committee is planning to bring him straight back in again. I don't agree with it as I know his role and strengths are important, but he has barely played in the last month and there are just a few ahead of him at the moment with Ads ready to come back in.

What I want:

In - Ads (as sub)
Out - Sanders (tough, but a little down on form at the wrong time)


What I think will happen:

In - Ads (as sub), VDM
Out - Sanders, Croft (maybe?)


I would have McNeil play a forwarding tagging job on Jordan Clark this week off half back.


Some very tough calls this week.

I think with Sanders it isn't his ability in terms of getting the ball it's his willingness to defend and scrap like his life depends on it.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Don’t see Treloar as a certainty. He’d be very handy to have obviously but they’d want to be confident he isn’t likely to reinjure his calf given the stakes. Might be better to play a few weeks of VFL before returning for the final if we make it.

 

[VitalDread]

Regardless how we play

It will def be better than my golf swing at 9am that morning

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Darce isnt exactly a shrinking violet when the ball hits the ground either!

Treloar for Sanders or Garcia is a clear upgrade on either. One of them is going to be unlucky

Garcia gets a nod for his aggression. Humbly at times, but will need that mongrel.

 

[Outback Footy]

2025 Fixture Double Ups (top nine side):
Adelaide: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, West Coast, Hawthorn
Brisbane: Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Hawthorn
Geelong: Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond
Collingwood: Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne
Fremantle: Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Collingwood, Port Adelaide
Gold Coast: Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide
GWS: West Coast, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong, Gold Coast
Dogs: North Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Essendon

Easiest runs were Geelong and Freo and the Freo fans are whingeing they didnt get to play bombers, norf or tiges more often. I edited this to show top 9 double ups.

 

[True Dog]

Probably won’t but I’d bring in Lachie Jacques as the sub, think he provides us a lot of flexibility around the ground

Hell of a game to debut in though

Agree it won't be this week but he'll play senior footy next year I'm certain. So much to like about him.

 

[dogwatch]

If Dolan and VDM are declared available it seems likely that we will have only one or two players on the injured list this week.

That's Weightman who is out for the year. And perhaps Gallagher who I think has a soft tissue injury. Hamstring?

There's JUH unavailable of course but that's not an injury as such.
Also not sure where Harmes is at. He may still be unavailable for illness or personal reasons. After such a long break he wouldn't be considered for the Freo game even if declared fit.

Fingers crossed they can all stay fit and healthy. That's an amazingly short unavailability list compared to what we've had most years as we near the finals. And on that list only Weightman would be a walk up start for the best 22.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Darce isnt exactly a shrinking violet when the ball hits the ground either!

Treloar for Sanders or Garcia is a clear upgrade on either. One of them is going to be unlucky

All of Naughton, Darcy and Croft are pretty handy at ground level, so maybe we can get away with the three pronged attack when Croft adjusts to the level.

I think one problem when it was JUH, Darcy and Naughton was the JUH often wasn’t that competitive when the ball hit the deck and Darcy wasn’t as confident as he is now. There were games JUH was switched on and it was fine, but when he wasn’t there just wasn’t enough pressure.

Croft also plays either end so it gives us options.

 

[Anja_Nees]

If Dolan and VDM are declared available it seems likely that we will have only one or two players on the injured list this week.

That's Weightman who is out for the year. And perhaps Gallagher who I think has a soft tissue injury. Hamstring?

There's JUH unavailable of course but that's not an injury as such.
Also not sure where Harmes is at. He may still be unavailable for illness or personal reasons. After such a long break he wouldn't be considered for the Freo game even if declared fit.

Fingers crossed they can all stay fit and healthy. That's an amazingly short unavailability list compared to what we've had most years as we near the finals. And on that list only Weightman would be a walk up start for the best 22.

Harmes offers a lot but I think we’d be gunshy after bringing him in off a break in the final last year.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

After a long season where we were Bontless for 5 games and Samless for 6 it comes down this. Seems like it is always the last game that decides our finals fate. I know this board will go into melt down if we lose. This will be based on one game we need to win not on the season as a whole.

I would have taken 14 wins and 140% every day of the week before the season if I knew Cody, Jamarra would not play a game. ADZ plays virtually no part and the Bont and Sam miss large chunks. OK our win record is not good against top 8 teams but it is hard not to feel one more win and we would be favoured to make top 4.

Changes

Ins I think you must go with ADZ
Outs McNeill

 

[Doggies7]

I think with Sanders it isn't his ability in terms of getting the ball it's his willingness to defend and scrap like his life depends on it.

Definitely. Those fringe mids have to have a lot of strings to their bow and the defending and scrapping is non-negotiable. It really stood out last week especially in a few of those ground balls next to Kennedy, Garcia, Baker etc who attack it like wild animals.

Not writing Sanders off at all, probably just something he has never really had to do too much of just being such a natural ball winner his whole junior career.

 

[Doggies7]

Might be a little awkward in the Treloar household if Adam takes Ryley's spot in the team this week

 

[The Inbetweener]

Confident we won this one, but $3.60 for Freo is pretty ridiculous

 

[dogwatch]

Might be a little awkward in the Treloar household if Adam takes Ryley's spot in the team this week

Or there could be an eviction if Sanders holds his spot at Adz' expense.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Or there could be an eviction if Sanders holds his spot at Adz' expense.

Hope Adam is not serving up beef wellington.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

If Adz is good to go then in for McNeil my only change.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I think the hawks probably beat the lions with Hipwood and Berry added to their outs. You think the pies, GC (2 wins), GWS all win. This means we finish 8th if we win and percentage between hawks, pies and GC determine 3rd, 4th and 5th and who we play. GWS are too far behind on percentage and will play the lions on my prediction. GC and pies likely to have the better percentage and we will play the hawks 5th V 8th.

 

[X_box_X]

I think the hawks probably beat the lions with Hipwood and Berry added to their outs. You think the pies, GC (2 wins), GWS all win. This means we finish 8th if we win and percentage between hawks, pies and GC determine 3rd, 4th and 5th and who we play. GWS are too far behind on percentage and will play the lions on my prediction. GC and pies likely to have the better percentage and we will play the hawks 5th V 8th.

Wow!

I wasn't aware of that. Huge loss. He was due to play his 200th match. Structurally it hurts a lot too.

 

[Golden_6]

Confident we won this one, but $3.60 for Freo is pretty ridiculous

It is quite ridiculous. I have us as favourites but it should be closer to $1.70/$2.10 sort of split.

Freo had won something like 11 of 12 games before laying an egg last week. They have a midfield that has caused us issues in the past forward of the ball and a bunch of quick half forwards and damaging tall forwards that could easily expose our lack of transition defence.

 

[DueWest]

Tricky week for team selection including that the Footscray VFL team doesnt play this week due to it being wildcard week

In that case if Treloar and Harmes are not in seniors there is no game time which makes it harder if we do make finals

In Treloar and out McNeil

Think Sanders just stays in ahead of McNeil albeit he is way out of touch and coming off a sub game and not sure if they would make him sub two weeks in a row although he is the obvious choice.

If VDM is ok just give him another week off

 

[Libba39]

Going to go against the grain here.

Would be a massive risk to bring Trelaor in after one game (albeit a good one) in the reserves, and throw him into a finals-like intensity game.

If he pinged a calf in the first qtr there would be hell to pay.

I'm saying we don't play him.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

2025 Fixture Double Ups (top nine side):
Adelaide: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, West Coast, Hawthorn
Brisbane: Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Hawthorn
Geelong: Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond
Collingwood: Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne
Fremantle: Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Collingwood, Port Adelaide
Gold Coast: Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide
GWS: West Coast, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong, Gold Coast
Dogs: North Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Essendon

Easiest runs were Geelong and Freo and the Freo fans are whingeing they didnt get to play bombers, norf or tiges more often. I edited this to show top 9 double ups.

Geelong seems to always get the easiest run, it’s more than just a coincidence.

 

[Unorth]

Tim has usually been a factor in our worst/most disappointing losses over the last few years. When he gets well beaten in big games, typically against other teams with strong midfields, relying on Bont/Ed/Libba and co to overpower through a huge ruck discrepancy doesn’t really work out for us.

Needs to stand up with a big 4 quarter performance when it truly matters. If Darcy/Jackson get on top like Meek last year we will find it very difficult to win. Doesn’t have to get 3 votes but has to at least break even with them. Our backline will get destroyed if their midfield gets clean possession from the middle and puts in repeat entries.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

This year, we seem down for the mids winning it out of the middle, we are good at bringing it back from defence to our offence, but it puts a lot of unnecessary strain on our defenders. I think having Treloar back offsets this, and I would play him and be ready to sub him out if anything happens.

Freo have Serong as their best mid, and Dunkley sat on him, but their other very good mid is Young who was held back last week and will be in this week. It’s all or nothing for us.

I also like Crofty’s aggression and his footy smarts, is he better than McNeil, or do we go to tall if we keep him in at McNeil’s expense.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I also like Crofty’s aggression and his footy smarts, is he better than McNeil, or do we go to tall if we keep him in at McNeil’s expense.

Croft came in for Poulter