Prediction Changes v Freo (3:15pm Sunday @ Marvel)

[lachy]

Other than his early season goal kicking, Sanders doesn’t have much hurt factor. He has ostensibly been in an outside role all season, but has played it like an inside mid and handballs 2/3 of the time. E.g. he’s 6th at the club for handball receives per game, but not even in the top 20 for kicks or metres gained per game. He has the lowest metres per disposal of all 36 players that have played a game for us this year.

Here’s a recent example where his reluctance to drive us forward by foot resulted in a poor decision, a wasted scoring opportunity and a costly turnover:

View attachment 2404118

We’ve tried to find a role for him for two years and the results have been patchy. I said when we drafted him that he had no obvious role in the senior team for a few years. But we’ve taken the Ed Richards approach and wedged him into the side where we can to get games into him.
He was doing enough for most of the season by being a useful link in chains and kicking a few goals. But his involvements have tapered off recently and when you’re not getting it much as a wingman or half forward you need your possessions to be impactful. Sanders’ aren’t.

You are correct in pointing out the Ed Richards approach in building him up. Will point out Richards struggled alot at half forward.

Until his strength reaches its top end he will be patchy.

New draftees do not complete the full pre season until the 4th year, until then players even players drafted in the first 3 can have down patches, very few don't.

He will end up a solid B grader, which will eventually slot in well as an in and under mid who with strength and fitness built up over the next couple of years will also improve all aspects of pressure.

In the meantime he will be patchy in development

 

[Proffessor]

Hmm that's not entirely true. We loved Watson sure, but immediately after the trade there were articles suggesting the trade up was for whoever of Watson or Sanders fell through to us. The recruiters have a fair idea of how the top 10 looks like shaking out from a decent way back, and Cal's Phantom draft in September before the trade and then in Oct after the trade both had Watson going before Sanders (to the eventual Hawks pick).

I'm sure we would have grabbed Watson if he slipped through, but I'm sure in Power's mind the trade up was to grab Sanders knowing he is 95% likely to be there at that selection and Watson gone.

Article straight after the trade linking us to Watson and Sanders -

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1051386...-pick-no4-from-gold-coast-suns-in-first-trade

I said most of the speculation, not all.
And as the article you linked highlights. We traded up to pick 4, but of course following AFL competition shenanigans, that got bumped down to 6, hence we were denied an opportunity to draft Watson.

I’m not criticising Sanders, or the trade, which notably also involved us getting Jordan Croft.
I still think Sanders has a bright future. Just trying to point out that the trade wasn’t all about us specifically getting him and hence I think people should avoid the temptation of associating the the total cost and motivation for that trade with the kid when they are judging his performance.

 

[cherrypie]

Pick 6 has had a pretty shocking run.
View attachment 2403552

I really wanted us to take Scharenberg but am content with how Bont has turned out. Shame for Scharenberg with his injuries, killed his career before it got going

 

[MaxiBont]

You are correct in pointing out the Ed Richards approach in building him up. Will point out Richards struggled alot at half forward.

Until his strength reaches its top end he will be patchy.

New draftees do not complete the full pre season until the 4th year, until then players even players drafted in the first 3 can have down patches, very few don't.

He will end up a solid B grader, which will eventually slot in well as an in and under mid who with strength and fitness built up over the next couple of years will also improve all aspects of pressure.

In the meantime he will be patchy in development

Which is a fine outcome for a pick 6

 

[BigFloppa]

Sanders will.be a very good midfielder in the medium to long term like a Travis Boak

10

Travis Boak

Age

37

Ht

183cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

11.6

4star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.4

4star

type. Just chill the **** out man who cares its just footy and spring is almost here so go outside and smell the jasmine and watch the birds go about their business life's a gift so let's just enjoy it without stressing over how many career coaches votes Sanders gets and whether that mathematically justifies trading pickle blah blah for pickle 6 go outside and enjoy the small of freshly cut grass and give your loved ones a big hug and breath in that fresh spring air

 

[low impact and reckless]

Because simply your looking at the last 3 weeks as judgement on a second year player and what we gave up to get him and Croft like it is some evidence of a mistake by our club.

Sick to death of posters making out we as a club are poor, settle for medioracy, never learn from mistakes when we have never been better run on or off the field than we are now.

I agree that Sanders needs a rest and has to show something in the VFL final next week to get back into pur AFL team. But to not acknowledge that he is getting close to being a best 22 which is what you want from a number 6 pick in a draft is simply nonsense

Blimey - he's a kid.A kid played out of position.Played out of position so McNeill and VDM have a spot in the team. Poor team selection has slaughtered him

 

[JohnnySteel]

Sanders is a pure mid. It’s actually a real credit to him that he has even been able to adapt to play other positions when it doesn’t suit his natural game & skills.

 

[HK_Bulldog]

Sanders is okay, was getting a lot of praise mid year. However, if we didn’t do the trade and give up our 2024 first, I think we would’ve had Murphy Reid. Give me Reid any day of the week over Sanders.

 

[MaxiBont]

Sanders is okay, was getting a lot of praise mid year. However, if we didn’t do the trade and give up our 2024 first, I think we would’ve had Murphy Reid. Give me Reid any day of the week over Sanders.

If Luke Darcy didn’t root we wouldn’t have Sam Darcy.

No point thinking about hypotheticals for who we didn’t draft.

 

[Angak]

I feel for Ryley. He has played nearly every round this year and then gets dropped in the last game before the finals. There’s no VFL game this weekend to help him earn a recall either.

However it shouldn’t be seen as a selection disaster. Sanders’ form has been below his best recently while Arty has been impressive in VFL games since his return from a hamstring strain.

Also Sanders is merely playing to decide whether he wants to stay with the Dogs or join the Tassy Devils startup. No massive pressure compared to Arty whose whole career is on the line.

The change in the lineup might end up telling us a bit about both players.

I think his performance in the last quarter against the Demons was the catalyst for his recent exclusions. Season on the line, finals-like pressure, every contest mattered. He came up short in a few big moments, and the one that stands out is when he ran over the ball with a meek effort. We still scored from that play, I think through Garcia, but I reckon Bevo would have been concerned with how weak he was over the ball. In that situation you need to be strong and desperate. He wasn’t.

The following week he was the sub. I can’t say for certain, but I think those last quarter efforts played a big part in him losing his spot as an automatic starter.

 

[TiAn_]

Sanders will.be a very good midfielder in the medium to long term like a Travis Boak type. Just chill the **** out man who cares its just footy and spring is almost here so go outside and smell the jasmine and watch the birds go about their business life's a gift so let's just enjoy it without stressing over how many career coaches votes Sanders gets and whether that mathematically justifies trading pickle blah blah for pickle 6 go outside and enjoy the small of freshly cut grass and give your loved ones a big hug and breath in that fresh spring air

Come outside and catch these hands

 

[Zgope1]

Sanders is a pure mid. It’s actually a real credit to him that he has even been able to adapt to play other positions when it doesn’t suit his natural game & skills.

I agree that he’s adapted well in other positions and been a real positive at times.

Having said that, for a pure mid, he is currently a bad mid at afl level

 

[Al dente]

I really wanted us to take Scharenberg but am content with how Bont has turned out. Shame for Scharenberg with his injuries, killed his career before it got going

me too.
that famous story of how Sharenberg 'tanked' his interview with us so that he'd get to the pies. worked out well if true

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Probably a tad early to write off a guy that’s played 22 games for us this year in his second year.

I’ve written a very long-winded reply to this thread, then deleted it after reading this. Nothing more needs to be said. He’s done well but the omission is fair enough. We don’t need to be analysing a career that hasn’t even happened yet.

 

[Al dente]

I think his performance in the last quarter against the Demons was the catalyst for his recent exclusions. Season on the line, finals-like pressure, every contest mattered. He came up short in a few big moments, and the one that stands out is when he ran over the ball with a meek effort. We still scored from that play, I think through Garcia, but I reckon Bevo would have been concerned with how weak he was over the ball. In that situation you need to be strong and desperate. He wasn’t.

The following week he was the sub. I can’t say for certain, but I think those last quarter efforts played a big part in him losing his spot as an automatic starter.

Sanders is caught in between at the moment.
give him an inside mid role and he looks more intense and committed.
in other roles he zones and coasts and doesnt committ fully enough.

Freijah has these tendencies as well, i reckon theres a couple of times every week where he could have made a tackle or smother but zones off instead.

i wonder if its a fitness or a decision making thing. neither of them are soft

 

[adogsfan5]

Sando is Libbas replacement. Simple as that. Just can’t get into the midfield at the moment. He’ll be fine.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Last 2 games at Marvel average winning margin 91 points, I would love a stress free game on Sunday.

 

[stefoid]

Last 2 games at Marvel average winning margin 91 points, I would love a stress free game on Sunday.

nah, last thing we want is to roll into finals off a couple of easy games. Also, we want to stress test Croft and Arty.

 

[Angak]

Unbelievable Jones finish steals back the lead

Arty Jones shows all his skills with a sensational snap on the run

www.afl.com.au

Arty has the tools to be our super sub. Come on late with leg speed to get involved in a few goals. Like that Carlton match last year.

I’ve held stocks in Arty for years and never sold. I know some on here had written him off, but I always felt that was a bit unfair. He came in at about 65kg, so of course he wasn’t going to impact straight away. But the talent was there, the character was there, the energy was there.

He was always a long term project. He had to learn how to eat, train, and build his body before he could show it. Some kids burst onto the scene, others need time. Arty is the latter.

Even when he was overrunning balls in the VFL, it wasn’t because he hesitated. He was attacking the footy at full speed. It was only a matter of time before his technique and lower body strength caught up so he could gather cleanly at pace.

He still has a way to go. At 180cm he isn’t small, but he has more weight to add and will get tested against stronger bodies. In time though, imo he’ll be locked into the best 22 and pushing into the top bracket of half forwards.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Other than his early season goal kicking, Sanders doesn’t have much hurt factor. He has ostensibly been in an outside role all season, but has played it like an inside mid and handballs 2/3 of the time. E.g. he’s 6th at the club for handball receives per game, but not even in the top 20 for kicks or metres gained per game. He has the lowest metres per disposal of all 36 players that have played a game for us this year.

Here’s a recent example where his reluctance to drive us forward by foot resulted in a poor decision, a wasted scoring opportunity and a costly turnover:

View attachment 2404118

We’ve tried to find a role for him for two years and the results have been patchy. I said when we drafted him that he had no obvious role in the senior team for a few years. But we’ve taken the Ed Richards approach and wedged him into the side where we can to get games into him.
He was doing enough for most of the season by being a useful link in chains and kicking a few goals. But his involvements have tapered off recently and when you’re not getting it much as a wingman or half forward you need your possessions to be impactful. Sanders’ aren’t.

Yeah, the difference between this year and last year is that Sanders is far fitter and understands the flow of the game, so has found ways to run to the right positions to win more of the ball than last year.

But there are still the lingering question marks about his ball use and decision making like you said and it's no better than last year.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

nah, last thing we want is to roll into finals off a couple of easy games. Also, we want to stress test Croft and Arty.

Would you prefer a tough game and we lose.

 

[Zgope1]

Sando is Libbas replacement. Simple as that. Just can’t get into the midfield at the moment. He’ll be fine.

wow! one of the best tacklers ever replaced by one of the worst defensive instinct midfielders i've ever seen! It's an interesting strategy Cotton let's see how it works out for them!

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Arty is not taking Sanders place, its not like for like.
Arty is replacing VDM/McNeil/Poulter.
Sanders can't yet replace the inside mids, and his outside game isn't enough to keep him in the midfield rotations.

Yeah Arty is fighting for the Vanders and McNeil spots. Arty has the highest ceiling IMO as he is also clean and damaging. He just hasn't had the strength - until now!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I was messing around with some numbers and wanted to highlight how unusual it was for Sanders' reluctance to kick.

I did a very quick and dirty kick/handball analysis.

+1 for every kick in which your possession was not an uncontested mark, handball receive, or kick-in
+0 if you kick the ball after an uncontested mark, handball receive or kick-in
-1 if you take a kick-in, uncontested mark or handball receive and fail to kick the ball.

League average is a bit below 0.00 for this

In other words the time in which players do a chain of handball happens slightly more often than a player kicking the ball after winning their own contested possession, and we should balance this out for every player (not exactly this but you get the idea).

Ryley Sanders is last in the league at -122, Andy McGrath is 2nd last at -111
Andy McGrath has over 100 more touches than Sanders though.

Min 300 disposals on the season

Sanders is -0.31 per possession
McGrath is 2nd worst in the league with "merely" -0.22 per possession.

And at least McGrath averages 13 metres per possession, so despite being the only player in the ballpark as Sanders in terms of being handball happy he makes up for it with some run and carry.

And at also at least McGrath actually wins far more of the ball on a per minute basis (contested/uncontested whatever, he's still getting to the right spots to win it).

Sanders averages 9 metres gained per possession.

Sanders is unique in the league with his unwillingness to kick the ball when accounting for the nature of how he wins his possession.

It's a good thing that he's kicked 11 goals where by definition they were often metres gained kicked, otherwise he's been woeful for using his kicking to help kick goals for us as a team.

I'm not being biased for his recent form, I'm taking the whole season as it is.

I can't believe people don't see this as there being genuine question marks over his value as a future AFL player. If this sort of mindset continues he will always be limited as a value-add player, and this is before we even take pick 6 into context or whatever.

 

[manutd/dogs]

Sando Butters is Libbas replacement. Simple as that. Just can’t get into the midfield here at the moment. He’ll be fine.

FTFY