Prediction Changes vs. Brisbane

[Sheeds]

I think the issue a lot of Port supporters have is they look at the performances of the club from a long term perspective. Ken obviously has this view you need to support senior players regardless of form and showing faith in players brings out the best in them.

We have obviously sat back and seen Port miss finals 7 of the last 9 years including the last two so rewarding mediocrity and poor performance from senior players has generally has not worked all that well for us. For all the improvement Port claim to have made we are still in a logjam with other teams. But most our losses have been close losses and the attitude of close enough is good enough is an ingrained cultural problem

 

[Byron!!!]

Young just has to hit the scoreboard more. Just doing his job isn't enough - but at least he DOES his job, unlike Ah Chee.

Neade is exactly what this team needs. A defensive forward who can provide a chop out for Sam Gray off the bench and really help lock the ball in our forward line so our defence can set up against transition.

When Pittard was dropped for Houston, it was understandable because Pittard was meant to be the running line breaker that helped us move the ball even better - but he's done none of that. So Houston comes back in and - like I said at the beginning - our prospects of winning the flag will rise and fall with his development. Jasper will come back in - if he comes back in - for one of Hartlett/Byrne-Jones/Broadbent (Byrne-Jones for mine. I think Pittard would offer more in the same role). But Houston stays in the side from now on.

People crying because Howard or Atley weren't selected are just pathetic cry babies who want their bottle. Howard had a good performance, which is why he is listed second emergency, but he's not John Butcher, where we have to bring him in quick just in case the pixie dust fades. He's putting pressure on Trengove, who puts pressure on Hombsch. Anyone who thinks we're going to play 3 key forwards in our forward line (Dixon, Howard, Trengove) is as nuts as anyone who thinks we're going to play 4 key defenders in our backline (Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey, Jonas).

The thing about our performance this year is that no one could say we've had the kind of performance that most teams have had this year where everything we touch turns to gold against a quality opponent. Even last year against Collingwood we had a game like that. We've been smacking lower teams without being impressive, because the way we've done it people can feel that we are still off.

We're right in this. When Kern says that he reckons Marshall will get an opportunity by the end of the year, it makes me excited. When I know that Drew and Atley are stringing good form together but they have to bide their time while we give existing players an opportunity to see if they can perform in our system, I understand it.

Make no mistake, this is about winning the flag this year, but also winning it next year and the year after. Finding out who is up to it, and who isn't.

I think the possibility of Hinkley playing those 4 key defenders is a little less nuts than the 3 key forwards, as in the past Jonas has played on medium/small players, although after the last showdown he may never do again!


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[bringbackbucky]

If you could trade someone mid-season I'd be happy to shop Jasper around immediately. You never overpay for a half back flanker - especially not one who doesn't know what foot he kicks with...

 

[KenOath]

For all the improvement Port claim to have made we are still in a logjam with other teams. But most our losses have been close losses and the attitude of close enough is good enough is an ingrained cultural problem

This is the part that is annoying me the most at the moment...if you listened to the talk coming out of the club you'd think we were entrenched in the top 4 and pushing for a top 2 spot and home finals.

Yet, the reality is we are 6-5, sitting 5th on the ladder going into this round on an equal number of wins as the 10th placed side! The fact is we are very much closer to being 10th on the ladder than we are to being 1st or 2nd! This season could fall in a hole very, very quickly!

 

[Schulzenfest]

Anyone who thinks we're going to play 3 key forwards in our forward line (Dixon, Howard, Trengove) is as nuts as anyone who thinks we're going to play 4 key defenders in our backline (Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey, Jonas).

So, first addressing the three KPF's point:

Adelaide - Walker, Jenkins, McGovern
Carlton - Casboukt, Weitering, Curnow
Essendon - Daniher, Hooker, Stewart
Fremantle - McCarthy, Kersten, Taberner
GWS - Cameron, Patton, Lobb
NM - Waite, Brown, Wood
STK - Riewoldt, Bruce, Membrey
SYD - Franklin, Reid, whichever of Tippett/Naismith/Sinclair is resting ruck

Are all of those coaches 'nuts'?

Now as for the four KPD's point, I can think of a certain coach who once had Carlile, Trengove, Hombsch and Jonas in his best 22. Funnily enough, the only year that said coach had all four of them in his best 22 was easily his most successful year ever as a coach. Do you think that particular coach is 'nuts'?

 

[Janus]

So, first addressing the three KPF's point:

Adelaide - Walker, Jenkins, McGovern
Carlton - Casboukt, Weitering, Curnow
Essendon - Daniher, Hooker, Stewart
Fremantle - McCarthy, Kersten, Taberner
GWS - Cameron, Patton, Lobb
NM - Waite, Brown, Wood
STK - Riewoldt, Bruce, Membrey
SYD - Franklin, Reid, whichever of Tippett/Naismith/Sinclair is resting ruck

Are all of those coaches 'nuts'?

Now as for the four KPD's point, I can think of a certain coach who once had Carlile, Trengove, Hombsch and Jonas in his best 22. Funnily enough, the only year that said coach had all four of them in his best 22 was easily his most successful year ever as a coach. Do you think that particular coach is 'nuts'?

I said anyone who thinks WE are going to play 3 key forwards/4 key backs is nuts. What other teams are setup for is a completely different system. Ours is focussed on team defence.

 

[240volt]

Jake Barrett is miles better than Neade both offensively and defensively and they picked him up as a GWS discard in the rookie draft.

Just shows how strong GWS are and will be for many years to come.

 

[TeeKray]

I think the issue a lot of Port supporters have is they look at the performances of the club from a long term perspective. Ken obviously has this view you need to support senior players regardless of form and showing faith in players brings out the best in them.

We have obviously sat back and seen Port miss finals 7 of the last 9 years including the last two so rewarding mediocrity and poor performance from senior players has generally has not worked all that well for us. For all the improvement Port claim to have made we are still in a logjam with other teams. But most our losses have been close losses and the attitude of close enough is good enough is an ingrained cultural problem

This is a really important point about standards. When you have such a sustained lack of success, the bar is inevitably lowered in terms of what constitutes success. Even I find myself thinking sometimes 'gee, it'd be nice if we just played finals' because that marker of success (even though it's not success, it's mediocrity) has eluded us for so long.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I said anyone who thinks WE are going to play 3 key forwards/4 key backs is nuts. What other teams are setup for is a completely different system. Ours is focussed on team defence.

So if our set-up in 2014 with Carlile (easily replaceable by Clurey), Trengove, Jonas and Hombsch got us to a preliminary final and our set-ups ever since haven't even taken us to an elimination final, why is it 'nuts' to suggest that it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to revert to the old structure?

Howard (or Eddy, or probably even Marshall) is a more natural forward than Trengove. Trengove is a much better stopping defender than Hombsch. Hombsch is a much better intercept defender than Hartlett. Move one of those forwards into Trengove's role, Trengove into Hombsch's role and Hombsch into Hartlett's role and we're suddenly immediately better equipped to play team defence than we are now, as well as giving us a forward line which actually has forwards in it.

 

[Jack Grange]

Excellent defender? Serious? The guy has no tank. Yes you will see a couple good chases and a tackle or 2. But you miss the time his opponent storms out of defense (as he out of camera) with hands on knees sucking in the big ones. He is not a serious AFL footballer and only is some icing on cake if playing in a gun team in form. Not in a team that cant beat an opposition team near the 8 or a team that rolls over when a team challenges and close game. He is another roll over and watch team loose player. We have enough of them. Atley, Drew, Howard, Frampton and others dont have this history. We have nothing to loose. Its impotent selections imo

Agree... we now have Jake along with Sam Gray, Impey manning our fwd line. Jake unfortunately is not going to be best 22 going forward so introducing Atley would have been more appropriate. Any one of Young, SPP, Chad, R Gray, S Gray etc can run around like Jake does (and doesn't kick anywhere enough goals). Atley can play inside and rotate with Wines, SPP, Ebert, Boak, Chad etc. Atley and Drew for that matter ARE THE FUTURE dare i say it not Jake. Poor selection.

 

[Jonts]

Young just has to hit the scoreboard more. Just doing his job isn't enough - but at least he DOES his job, unlike Ah Chee.

Neade is exactly what this team needs. A defensive forward who can provide a chop out for Sam Gray off the bench and really help lock the ball in our forward line so our defence can set up against transition.

When Pittard was dropped for Houston, it was understandable because Pittard was meant to be the running line breaker that helped us move the ball even better - but he's done none of that. So Houston comes back in and - like I said at the beginning - our prospects of winning the flag will rise and fall with his development. Jasper will come back in - if he comes back in - for one of Hartlett/Byrne-Jones/Broadbent (Byrne-Jones for mine. I think Pittard would offer more in the same role). But Houston stays in the side from now on.

People crying because Howard or Atley weren't selected are just pathetic cry babies who want their bottle. Howard had a good performance, which is why he is listed second emergency, but he's not John Butcher, where we have to bring him in quick just in case the pixie dust fades. He's putting pressure on Trengove, who puts pressure on Hombsch. Anyone who thinks we're going to play 3 key forwards in our forward line (Dixon, Howard, Trengove) is as nuts as anyone who thinks we're going to play 4 key defenders in our backline (Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey, Jonas).

The thing about our performance this year is that no one could say we've had the kind of performance that most teams have had this year where everything we touch turns to gold against a quality opponent. Even last year against Collingwood we had a game like that. We've been smacking lower teams without being impressive, because the way we've done it people can feel that we are still off.

We're right in this. When Kern says that he reckons Marshall will get an opportunity by the end of the year, it makes me excited. When I know that Drew and Atley are stringing good form together but they have to bide their time while we give existing players an opportunity to see if they can perform in our system, I understand it.

Make no mistake, this is about winning the flag this year, but also winning it next year and the year after. Finding out who is up to it, and who isn't.

When did Ken say that about Marshall

 

[PortWTF]

Young just has to hit the scoreboard more. Just doing his job isn't enough - but at least he DOES his job, unlike Ah Chee.

Neade is exactly what this team needs. A defensive forward who can provide a chop out for Sam Gray off the bench and really help lock the ball in our forward line so our defence can set up against transition.

When Pittard was dropped for Houston, it was understandable because Pittard was meant to be the running line breaker that helped us move the ball even better - but he's done none of that. So Houston comes back in and - like I said at the beginning - our prospects of winning the flag will rise and fall with his development. Jasper will come back in - if he comes back in - for one of Hartlett/Byrne-Jones/Broadbent (Byrne-Jones for mine. I think Pittard would offer more in the same role). But Houston stays in the side from now on.

People crying because Howard or Atley weren't selected are just pathetic cry babies who want their bottle. Howard had a good performance, which is why he is listed second emergency, but he's not John Butcher, where we have to bring him in quick just in case the pixie dust fades. He's putting pressure on Trengove, who puts pressure on Hombsch. Anyone who thinks we're going to play 3 key forwards in our forward line (Dixon, Howard, Trengove) is as nuts as anyone who thinks we're going to play 4 key defenders in our backline (Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey, Jonas).

Young: Agree
Neade: Mostly agree, but I don't think we can have both him and S Gray in the team when S Gray is not playing predominantly in the midfield.

Byrne-Jones: Don't agree. My feeling is he takes the oppositions best small forward. Pittard, Broadbent and Hartlett are not suited to this role. I don't know if Houston can do this as he may not be fast enough and seems more of an interceptor than stopper.

I honestly don't know why we can't have Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey and Jonas in the side. We pretty much play a back six with a +1. That would leave Trengove, Clurey and Jonas as our 3 key talls, DBJ, Broadbent and Houston as smaller defenders, with Hombsch as a floater. Just drop Hartlett, he isn't offering much. Admittedly there isn't much run there, Pittard in form would provide that and could replace a tall.

Howard has now played half a dozen games in the SANFL. He would offer more than Trengove up forward. Why wait?

 

[Jonts]

Schulzenfest missed out on WCE too
Who earlier this year and arguably in their best 22 have
Kennedy, Mcgovern, Darling and lycett/nicnat up forward
They're still a brilliant example of a team defence imo

 

[240volt]

Carn there wouldnt be one person here that knew exactly what would happen tonight

Its always been shuffling the fringe player deckchairs with Ken. I dont buy that Jasper has been dropped. He is "sore" or "injured"

In my opinion its one of the reason our players are so soft. There is no fear of being dropped if you are one of the "core group"
They can play shit week after week after week and they know they are safe

Nothing will change while Ken is in charge.

Neade in was always going to happen. Young in was always gonna happen. Same With Toumpas and Ah Chee. Its those same deckchairs over and over again.
This was a perfect opportunity to make a real statement. Atley should have been in. Howard should have been in. Hartlett and S Gray should have been out.. Hell perhaps even R Gray. Put this soft as butter group on notice.

I wish Ken had some Luke Beveridge sized balls

Agree with you 110% but its not going to change while we have the coaching staff we have. Now let's say we make the 8 this year i would guess that will be looked at as a good year and Ken will keep his job. If by some miracle we win one final he would be odds on for a contract extension. This club has ment so much to me all my life and have never even had a passing thought of them losing. Lets just say we go down this weekend miss the 8 finish around 12th
What would be the repercussions come seasons end?

 

[Schulzenfest]

Neade is exactly what this team needs. A defensive forward who can provide a chop out for Sam Gray off the bench and really help lock the ball in our forward line so our defence can set up against transition.

Oh shit I missed this bit before:

A) A defensive forward is a nice thing to have. We don't need a bench defensive forward to come on when the first defensive forward is on the bench. Sam Gray is a fit bloke, he spends what, maybe 15-20% of gametime on the bench? If we're using up one of the limited spots in our side on somebody who's there solely to fill a defensive forward role for 20% of game time then our priorities are truly rooted.

B) Even assuming that everything I posted in a) is wrong and that we do need to ensure we have a defensive forward on the field at all times, we already have Impey. Impey is better than Jake Neade at every aspect of football, including defensive pressure.

I agree with you that we need a defensively minded forward in the side. But we sure as **** don't need three of them.

 

[finbarr]

To quote a friend of mine who rarely frequents this board, "how are all 3 of Neade, Sam Gray and Impey in the same side when we have a full list to pick from?".

 

[Janus]

So if our set-up in 2014 with Carlile (easily replaceable by Clurey), Trengove, Jonas and Hombsch got us to a preliminary final and our set-ups ever since haven't even taken us to an elimination final, why is it 'nuts' to suggest that it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to revert to the old structure?

Howard (or Eddy, or probably even Marshall) is a more natural forward than Trengove. Trengove is a much better stopping defender than Hombsch. Hombsch is a much better intercept defender than Hartlett. Move one of those forwards into Trengove's role, Trengove into Hombsch's role and Hombsch into Hartlett's role and we're suddenly immediately better equipped to play team defence than we are now, as well as giving us a forward line which actually has forwards in it.

Hombsch isn't playing the role of a stopping defender. His role is to be strong in the air and fill the central role of a back three. Trengove could play this role.

But saying Hombsch could play Hartlett's role is ignorance. Hamish isn't an intercept defender - at least, that's not all he is. He's meant to play the sort of game Chad Cornes used to play for us - the defender who pushes up the ground and joins in the play. Hombsch can't do that.

Has he been doing that? Apart from the Hawthorn game, not really. But here's the thing - an in form Pittard could quite easily, and that's why Pittard has been dropped and Hamish stays in - Hartlett has at least played his role once. Pittard hasn't in any game this year.

Jasper is going to put pressure on Hartlett and Broadbent to perform. I think the balance is spot on. The only player I'd put in the forward line for a premiership assault is Todd Marshall, because he's agile enough to not change our dynamic. But not quite yet. Gotta tame the beast before you let it out of its cage.

 

[Rexie J]

To quote a friend of mine who rarely frequents this board, "how are all 3 of Neade, Sam Gray and Impey in the same side when we have a full list to pick from?".

Can we assume your reply was short and somewhat pithy

 

[Pappaya]

To quote a friend of mine who rarely frequents this board, "how are all 3 of Neade, Sam Gray and Impey in the same side when we have a full list to pick from?".

Is it just coincidence that Choco and Ken share the midget KPF philosophetish or does the board build player height limits into the head coach contract?

 

[GremioPower]

This is a really important point about standards. When you have such a sustained lack of success, the bar is inevitably lowered in terms of what constitutes success. Even I find myself thinking sometimes 'gee, it'd be nice if we just played finals' because that marker of success (even though it's not success, it's mediocrity) has eluded us for so long.

Baby steps. Once you start making the finals every year, the bar rises...

 

[finbarr]

Can we assume your reply was short and somewhat pithy

I didn't need to say anything.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Jasper is going to put pressure on Hartlett and Broadbent to perform. I think the balance is spot on. The only player I'd put in the forward line for a premiership assault is Todd Marshall, because he's agile enough to not change our dynamic. But not quite yet. Gotta tame the beast before you let it out of its cage.

I agree with Marshall but I also think Howard has the mobility and pace to play this role. He could be an upgraded Rhys Stanley, tall, quick, aggressive and mobile.

I would have liked to see Howard picked but really his knee reco wasn't even 12 months ago yet. They would be managing him carefully and would know full well where he is placed in his recovery. The 8 goals against West was a great return but the intensity of an AFL game is light years ahead of what he will experience at sanfl level, even an AFL game against Brisbane. Ken ruled him out so early in the week I think because they are continuing to manage his recovery.

Young shouldn't have been dropped instead of Toumpas in the first place so that's just reverting to what the situation should have been. Really there's been all sorts of talk all year about Young carrying an injury since the Adelaide game, shoulder popping in and out like toast at a soup kitchen. If the game against West showed anything, it's that he is fit again so he deserves the chance.

I would have liked Atley to get a game this week. He has to be close.

I hope we smash them, I can't stomach this talk of people saying they hope we lose to prove some point.

 

[finbarr]

Is it just coincidence that Choco and Ken share the midget KPF philosophetish or does the board build player height limits into the head coach contract?

I could understand it somewhat last year. Contrary to the prevailing view of this board John Butcher was a garbage option. But now we have quality options all coming off big performances and solid form lines. It boggles the mind.

 

[chiwigi]

Outs are fine, ins are fairly boring.Replace Neade with Atley and that's a pass. Then replace Young with Howard and it's probably a good week.

Sort of the changes that I don't feel hugely excited about nor greatly disappointed in.

Saved me typing it, yet I am typing this, so I may as well have typed it.

 

[Sleezy]

You know we'll trade Hartlett for Shaun Atley....

#MarginalGains