I dont think this has been posted yet...
Predictions for "U18" 2005 AFL draftees
I judge them to have "made AFL" when they have played a decent number of good AFL games over a sustained period (i.e. not merely getting games when their club's list is decimated by injuries, or due to just their size or pace presenting them with premature opportunities).
The categories generally reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.
This was another flaky draft, very much like 2000 but without a single standout (2000 had Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Didak as clear top 3 picks). In terms of "sure fire" outstanding CVs for very early picks, this was an unlucky year for a club to have picks anywhere in the first 6 or so. Nevertheless I suspect as many '05 draftees will sustain AFL careers as in most previous years, although I suspect as many will come from after about pick 20 as before. I think there are a few serious bargains.
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Will be TOP SHELF (in order of how good I think they might become):
HURN, Shannon (13) [WCE] "Big stage" player who gives the impression he has been biding time. Was my #1 for the 2005 draft for almost 2 years but it's now time to unwrap the pressy. O.P. (and corresponding ability to get and keep himself in top condition) a real concern so may need to be handled delicately for some time (at less than optimum conditioning, as has been the case for some years). We made need to be patient in this respect as he probably won't hit the ground running but he is a definite talent. Balanced, smart, knows how to find the pill and regularly pin-points 50-60m passes.
MUSTON, Beau (22) [Haw] A more prolific Jarred Brennan with big "X" and hurt factors. Very much in the mould of a young Kouta. Hard-running acrobat, albeit more athlete than natural footballer and, as such, my prediction for him assumes complete recovery from his knee injury (else all bets are off).
CLARK, Mitchell (9) [Bri] Enigmatic talent who has almost everything ability-wise when in the right frame of mind. Definite AFL position if (!) he wants to apply. I spent more time analysing him than any other player and I still feel uncomfortable re the risk of him being high maintenance. Still has a lot to learn about footy and application but, when switched on, his skills are breath-taking. Upside versus risk but, like Hurn (and Franklin last year), I think he is a "big stage" player who has been in need of the challenge of AFL.
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Will be AT LEAST GOOD (I didn't bother too much about the order but its very(!) roughly in the order of their upside with some allowance for my level of confidence in them achieving it) A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it.
DEMPSEY, Courtenay (19) [Ess] Slippery, smooth, daring. Bit of magic. Raw, skinny but potential game-breaker.
OAKLEY-NICHOLLS, Jarrad (8) [Ric] Silky tallish speedster. More Porsche than 4WD but has X-factor. Big upside.
MCKINLEY, Ben (29) [WCE] 6' purposeful type known for big grab on lead but his work-rate, ethic and smarts are equally impressive. So-so pace - so so what? Value in other ways and will prove more versatile than commonly perceived.
HOOPER, Rhan (41) [Bri] Skinny dashing free-wheeling ball-carrier with a few tricks. Needs to treat opponents with more respect but seems a centre-stage performer and is likely to embrace AFL. There's not much of him but he is another potential game-breaker.
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] This is a huge call for a rookie but I believe this kid is severely underrated. Athletic newby ruck with wingman pace. Vision and quick hands in close, and inside ethic. Great upside but will have to bide his time.
THOMAS, Dale (2) [Col] Not routinely special at anything and kicking is mixed bag but a quickish terrier dasher with a bit of everything. Works hard both ways, is consistent game by game, and has game-breaking flair.
MURPHY, Marc (1) [Car] Creative predator and linker. Not outside per se and gets his share of good clearances but is more smart predator than hard-nut. Not lightning quick but quickish and provides run, has smarts and vision, reads play and ball well. Kicking over short distance can be very good, albeit not routinely, but struggles for depth and does his share of floaters. I felt Murphy would be best suited to a team that already had quality First Dibs onballers and/or quality rucks (eg Hawthorn). Carlton does not fit that description. I disagree with the popular perception of him as a traditional in 'n under rover. I see him as more a footy-smart swoop-through creator and linker. He will be a good AFL player but not of the class or impact of a Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hodge, Judd, Ball, Cooney or Griffen.
JONES, Nathan (12) [Mel] When only a ute will do. Clean. Very powerful motor, low km. Extra bull-bar. Current RWC.
ANTHONY, John (37) [Col] Versatile, pacy, athletic, hard-running physical tall.
DOUGLAS, Richard (16) [Ade] 68kg as very top-age. Ability to bulk up is my only query. Quality user, speed, smarts, hands, overhead. Tick all boxes ... except size.
BAILEY, Max (18) [Haw] Raw mobile giant with good ethic and smarts. Will need time but great upside.
DRUM, Marcus (10) [Fre] Quality person and good TAC form in 2005 but didn't impress me quite as much upside-wise as he did in 2004 (didn't show opponents as much respect, zoning off too often, and kicking was dicey). Good reader and ultra cool. Loves to carry the ball and links very well, albeit lacking a little zip (although pace has improved). Courageous and strong overhead but may struggle to bulk up enough for KP. Will make AFL but must make more of his kicks hurt.
MILLS, Wayde (25) [Bri] Reliable young plumber. No job too big. Work 24/7. Blue-collar but no-one is more dedicated. Never say die. Raw but will succeed through sheer persistence and focus.
VARCOE, Travis (15) [Gee] Electrifying bottom-age skinny flashy dasher with exciting upside but inconsistent kick.
RYDER, Patrick (7) [Ess] Athletic short ruck. Cruises too much instead of pushing himself but undoubted skills and athleticism. Would be in the top group if there was a guarantee that he will lift his intensity / work rate. That's the query though, even allowing for him being bottom-age.
HUGHES, Cleve (24) [Ric] Fast-lead marking forward. Reliable kick for goal. Very top-age but intensity and ethic are on the up and his potency with it
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] Disappointing '05 (excuses) after looking real AFL in 2004. I'm keeping faith as he is a genuine footballer, albeit of so-so pace.
SWALLOW, Andrew (43) [Kan] Quick, dashing goer. Courageous accountable ball carrier with vision in close but must eliminate tunnel vision when on the run. Makes this group despite dodgy kicking because I believe his main technique fault (transference of COM) should be fixable.
THORNTON, Kristin (54) [Syd] Smart bottom-age HBF/wing. Good user (hand or foot). Dual-sided. Vision and quick hands, especially clever in close. Can accumulate, or shut opponent down. Skinny but versatile.
LOWER, Nick (30) [Por] Quality user. Very slick inside. Strong overhead. Unaccountable but creative, cool, balanced. Needs to push himself more and make more use of his pace.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] Skilled improver. Quick, clever. Good traffic management and stop-play / traffic clearances (incl centre bounce). Lights up a game for 20min. When/if he starts showing up for 100 minutes, will be AFL and probably still will be even if he doesn't.
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THE FOLLOWING WILL PLAY PLENTY OF AFL AND QUITE LIKELY BE GOOD BUT I DOUBT WILL BE AS GOOD AS TOUTED (in draft order):-
ELLIS, Xavier (3) [Haw] Very smart, ultra confident, outside finisher who plays his own game and treats opponents with no respect. I admire his skills but can he lift intensity enough and bulk up enough to reached the heights others have predicted?
KENNEDY, Josh (4) [Car] Physical KPP. Not silky but adept, reliable. Blue overalls, rock-solid goer. Excellent work and team ethic, can think quickly but lacks zip off the mark, is not especially reliable overhead and is an iffy kick.
DOWLER, Beau (6) [Haw] Slim leading forward, fairly reliant on marking. Excellent timer of leads, reliable overhead and usually a very good kick for goal. A bit one-trick but it's a good trick. Query below the knee and pace / agility (although has improved a lot) and I suspect he might always be slimmish.
PFEIFFER, Darren (17) [Ade] Fearless 6' dasher and high-flyer but kicking, decision-making and accountability a worry. Will play AFL but his hurt factors worry me.
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EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite" or nearly so:
STANLEY, Daniel (21) [Col] All-round strong goer who plays tall. Gives 110%, good reader, good defensively but disposal decision-making and especially kicking bother me, as does balance. Will play AFL but is perhaps too NQR for any sustainable specific AFL role.
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These players caused me MUCH ANGST in assessing their AFL potential (in draft order) -
PENDLEBURY, Scott (5) [Col] Switched back to footy from basketball only recently. Improving. Good work rate, especially hard running and 2nd and 3rd efforts. Lacks physicality but is ultra confident and has a touch of class and an attractive range of attributes. Some of his best work (especially evasion, vision and feeds) is from inside traffic, despite him being essentially an outside type, albeit good overhead. Tempting. Not the "certainty" one would expect of a #5 pick but, forced to call, I think he will be a handy player who will play some good AFL games. Could even be much better than handy but I have some concerns I'd need to see him address before I'd predict that with great confidence.
HIGGINS, Shaun (11) [WBD] "Read well, get own ball, dispose quickly and usually reliably with good vision". That's good but is it enough? Bottom-age, very highly rated and will certainly play AFL but is not blessed with pace, plays a mainly short game, and is unaccountable. Forced to call, I think he will be a handy player who will play some very good AFL quarters.
IBBOTSON, Garrick (26) [Fre] Reactive bottom-age pacy late starter. Moves well but is intensity query. Didn't play footy until about 14 and sometimes it shows. Predator (maybe too predator?) whose best role might be sweeper across half-back. Forced to call, I expect him to play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
OBST, Alan (48) [Ade] A "take them on, give you run from the backline/wing" slim tall who is a bit quicker than his DC times suggest but not quick per se. I see him as a tall HBF, perhaps even wing. Will furnish into a nice athletic build but I don't see him as AFL KP due to unlikely strength. (Struggles body on body even at U18 level). Trademarks are (a) Contest the mark, gather the spill then run the ball downfield. Finish off with a dubious kick. ( Run, contest, 2nd effort, 3rd effort, run. Rapid improver in last year or so. Works hard off the ball. Runs hard both ways. Can be relied upon for quick recovery and 2nd and 3rd efforts. Very good evasion and agility on the run but he is not a quick thinker or reliable decision-maker. Elements of Brent Staker. Forced to call, I think he will play AFL games and will suit Adelaide's style but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
LONERGAN, Sam (50) [Ess] Clearance specialist who gives his all. Dedicated (and has had to face some logistical obstacles in his U18 time) but class query, lacks zip off the mark, and kicking is unreliable. Strong overhead but 6cm reach disadvantage won't help at AFL level. Forced to call, I think he will play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity. Much will depend on his ability to address his kicking reliability.
LAIDLAW, Matthew (51) [Syd] Very top-age but an improver. Intensity query (doesn't seem to push himself enough) but has balance, poise, and quite good pace when he cares to use it. Forced to call, I think he will play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
LOOBY, Tim (R40) [Por] Josh Hunt comparisons but with more dash and not as routinely footy-smart. Big improver in 2005. Query re how much upside left. Forced to call, I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
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UP AGAINST IT (from National & Preseason drafts, in draft order) - I'd like to see every committed draftee succeed but these would surprise me: (Almost every draftee gets AFL games these days. I'm talking about sustained AFL careers)
BIRCHALL, Grant (14) [Haw] Somewhat outside linker. Good pace but waste of height. Small man trapped in a big man's body. Has a bit but frustrates me. Plays too cheap for mine and I'm not convinced he is special enough in any one aspect.
BOWER, Paul (20) [Car] Agile bottom-age tall defender. NQR. Bigger on zoning off and creating ball movement than on body to body accountability. Struggles on the gorillas but provides very good run out of defence. What do you do with a tall? He roves the spill and creates space extremely well with excellent reflexes, evasion and timing and he likes to free-wheel through space and set up play downfield. What do you do with a tall defender who plays that style but lacks some pace and who doesn't play body on body enough (although improving) and is not a strong contested mark? What AFL role?
COOK, Ryan (23) [Col] Unusual type - like Pendlebury, is an outsider who nevertheless gets plenty of hardball inside "stationery" traffic and also works hard at harassing any nearby opponent who has the ball. Good endurance, covers ground and is team-orientated with god intentions. Bottom-age improver but too many flaws - positioning / smarts, hands, disposal, hurt factors. Can look quick over a few metres but I'm dubious of his pace beyond that.
ADDISON, Dylan (27) [WBD] Nice size, moves quite well but doesn't impact enough.
RIGGIO, Matt (28) [Kan] Nice-size, hard-running mop-up utility and linker. Too mop-up / reactive. Not special in any single attribute. Keeps himself in good fitness nick and works hard but seems immature off-field compared to most of his peers. Bit too NQR is various aspects.
SPANGHER, Matthew (34) [WCE] Disciplined, hard-working, hard-running tall defender but probably NQR for AFL re pace, kicking, and overhead judgement / positioning.
OWEN, Stephen (35) [Gee] Nice size, quick off the mark but doesn't impact enough.
EDWARDS, Jake (36) [Car] Quick, tall improver who will get the most out of himself but suffers significant reach disadvantage and kicking can be dodgy.
WARNOCK, Robert (42) [Fre] Dedicated 205cm mobile ruck with nice skills but at only 80kg as extremely top age is likely to always be too skinny for AFL. To put his weight into context, he is 5cm taller than Guy Richards who has a similar frame. When Richards was drafted he was a bottom-aged 78kg, 3kg heavier than Robbie was at the same age and Robbie is 5cm taller. Richards 5 years into his AFL time has increased his weight by an impressive 20% but is still skinny.
CARLILE, Alipate (44) [Por] Top-age disciplined last-line negating defender a la Prestigiacomo but doesn't mind a little dash either. Fined down since '04 and has continually improved over the past 2 years (with still plenty of scope through further chiselling / conditioning) but I suspect lacks enough tricks for AFL.
GAMBLE, Ryan (47) [Gee] Too enigmatic. Many attractive tricks but gets caught in no-mans land too often (runs around as if he were an umpire or a club runner) and doesn't push himself. Rose from U19s to Seniors in the one year but was nevertheless inconsistent. Allowances have to be made as he missed virtually 2 months with a broken jaw and had also moved from rural SA to Adelaide for '05 but I suspect he will always be inconsistent. Best kicks are excellent but he is also capable of the odd mongrel. Not genuinely reliable overhead but big leap, can take a screamer and attacks his marks. Speed on the run is acceptable, although not flash, but he is slow off the mark. Poor running style, a la an Olympic walker.
NEAGLE, Jay (39) [Ess] Much potential improvement once chiselled down (a la Ling) but significant class query.
BUCKLEY, Simon (53) [Mel] 189cm athlete rather than footballer. Long kick but lacks smarts.
BRABAZON, Ryan (59) [Syd] Trademark is "fairly clean hands to get at edge of traffic, then cool sidestep out of trouble, then accurate feed or kick, showing good vision, then run on immediately to link up through space. Run, run, run." Slightly older than top-age, outsidish midfield ball-magnet who has improved enormously this year in poise, hurt factors, intensity, positioning, and pace (from a low base in all cases). What we have now is a kid with borderline acceptable pace who gets a fair share of his own ball, routinely looks for options (regardless of pressure), gets much greater value from his disposals, and thinks his way out of trouble. In short, he now earns most of his possessions and he makes the opposition pay for a good proportion of them. Team man, leader. Big engine. Indefatigable. Runs hard and routinely supplies a linking option. Plays smallish but also mainly outsidish - not a combination I strongly like in a player who does not have at least "very good" pace and is not a ball-carrier. He's still a bit too NQR for AFL in some key areas for his type - pace (especially off the mark), versatility, depth, build / strength, ground level, is not a ball-carrier, 5cm reach disadvantage. For what specific AFL role is he well suited? He isn't quite quick enough for an outside mid and not quite clean enough, strong enough and maybe inside enough for inside mid.
BARTRAM, Clinton (60) [Mel] Hard-running goer but lacks class, has a 6cm reach disadvantage and kicking lets him down. Handy, but not special, pace. If he were to make AFL, it would probably have to be as a run-with. He probably doesn't have enough tricks or silk for other roles. That would play to his major attribute viz endurance.
NEVILLE, Heath (68) [Mel] Athletic 6' HBF. Gets own ball but query disposal, accountability & play-reading.
ILES, Sam (P 2) [Col] Very top-age hard-running trier but really lacks smarts and poise. Plays too much in the style of a trier in an under 12 game. Runs "non-stop" from contest to contest but doesn't participate enough when he gets there. Quality person, very committed off-field, and has great endurance but is too reactive, is not clean and gets poor hurt factors from his possessions (He is quite a good kick when under no pressure but otherwise does too many turnovers, dinky "nothing" kicks, unnecessarily rushed disposals, some poor decision-making).
WHITE, Matthew (P 5) [Ric] Predator hard-running compulsive quick dasher. Ankle problems throughout '05. Hard worker on and off field. Fierce tackler. Will break the play open and carry the ball but is not clean or quick-thinking enough and disposal / hurt factor a worry.
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BARGAINS (Late picks i.e. >40, excluding F/S, who could belie their draft position) (in draft order).
HOOPER, Rhan (41) [Bri] (See above)
SWALLOW, Andrew (43) [Kan] (See above)
THORNTON, Kristin (54) [Syd] (See above)
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] (See above)
LOWER, Ed (R10) [Kan] Looks genuine AFL at times but needs to lift work-rate and make better use of speed. Tends to play big quarters rather than solid games at this stage.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] (See above)
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] (see above)
ELLIOTT, Sam (R53) [Ade] Natural "First Dibs" onballer, also dangerous up forward. 2005 marred by injury. Is better than that. Question is, how much better? I like. I would have had him in the "Will be at least good" category except that Adelaide already has a welter of his type so opportunities won't come easily.
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ROOKIES WITH A FUTURE (Rookies who I think might make AFL) (in draft order):
NB: I realise these are very big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability.
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] (See above)
LOWER, Ed (R10) [Kan] (See above)
CORR, Cathal (R14) [StK] The coalminer's coalminer. Iffy kicking and not at all silky but plays tall (excellent overhead, handy reach advantage) and with uncompromising ferocity and has quick hands. Unfashionable, rough around the edges, volatile and needs to improve kicking reliability (and technique) but I'd like him in the trenches with me. Improving all the time.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] (See above).
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] (See above)
COX, Shannon (R33) [Col] Very poor early '05 but improved heaps (form, focus, application) in 2nd half of the year. Query ability to maintain focus and application but he has some special attributes and shows promise as a work in progress.
ELLIOTT, Sam (R53) [Ade] (See above)
I considered including
REDDEN, Thomas (R29) [Ade]. However in recent times he seems to have more of the stereotype muso persona than that of a fully-committed AFL aspirant and he might also struggle for opportunities due to Adelaide's list. Lacks pace over a distance and awareness is only so-so but is otherwise a genuine footballer. Poor-man's version of Michael Tuck (even his on-field demeanour) - good overhead, tireless, never gives in, covers heaps of ground, often looks to be in cruise mode but always manages to be where the action is. Has a footy brain, albeit a "bit junkyard dog"ish and currently inclined to try to do too much. Always looks tired but never stops running. Despite lack of pace, I think he can make AFL if he adheres to the off-field dedication expected of an AFL player ... but that's the query.
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MISSED OUT on being drafted but I rate them
ARMFIELD, Dennis - Is raw but a quick-thinking, hard-working, courageous dasher who is strong overhead, physical, and mentally tough. Ex rugby kid with plenty of upside. No-one else in AFL recruiting is on the same page as me re this kid but I see definite AFL potential. I hope he doesn't think his AFL chances are gone. He owes it to himself to aspire to play AFL. I believe he is THE kid who snuck under the radar and I expect him to have a big year in WAFL Seniors in 2006.
EBERT, Ricky - Not pacy but is a quality user with vision and balance. Genuine footballer.
ADAMS, Leigh - Compact but versatile, smart, dangerous. Bottom-age natural footballer who I expect will get drafted in 2006.
GRANT, Grae - Enigmatic and doesn't push himself enough on-field but has range of silky skills when switched on. Will get drafted in 2006 if he lifts his mental toughness. It's in his own hands.
KELLEHER, Brad - In-between height but good kick, pace, hands, versatility and smarts. Needs to push himself more though.
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I also believe Andrew Banjanin, Sam Gosbell and Andrew Fairchild deserved to be rookied ahead of many who were. Banjanin is a weight query but an ideal developing ruck Rookie whose 2005 was ruined by injury (mainly O.P.). Gosbell is a quick, hard-running, smart, balanced, accountable, strong 186cm defender who is very good overhead and copped a couple of injuries. Fairchild has had his last 2 seasons disrupted by O.P. and hamstring injury. Not super quick and I don't know much about his character but is very strong overhead, especially on a lead, and a goer on his day. Was highly unlikely to get rookied but I think he is underrated. Another rapidly improving smokey was Andrew Crosby. 188cm dual-sided utility who has gained in confidence very recently. Quick brain and genuine smarts. Nice height and broad range of attributes (incl overhead, vision, athleticism, ethic) for a utility, albeit still a somewhat outside one. Scott Bricknell's kicking in 2005 was very disappointing and probably cost him his draft chances but he is a balanced, assured, natural "ruck-rover". David Marcius, who has worked hard on his game and pace for good U18 results, and Nick Lynch, a strong overhead, quick forward with dicey kicking, could also consider themselves unlucky but may not have the scope for further improvement that some others have.
Predictions for "U18" 2005 AFL draftees
I judge them to have "made AFL" when they have played a decent number of good AFL games over a sustained period (i.e. not merely getting games when their club's list is decimated by injuries, or due to just their size or pace presenting them with premature opportunities).
The categories generally reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.
This was another flaky draft, very much like 2000 but without a single standout (2000 had Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Didak as clear top 3 picks). In terms of "sure fire" outstanding CVs for very early picks, this was an unlucky year for a club to have picks anywhere in the first 6 or so. Nevertheless I suspect as many '05 draftees will sustain AFL careers as in most previous years, although I suspect as many will come from after about pick 20 as before. I think there are a few serious bargains.
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Will be TOP SHELF (in order of how good I think they might become):
HURN, Shannon (13) [WCE] "Big stage" player who gives the impression he has been biding time. Was my #1 for the 2005 draft for almost 2 years but it's now time to unwrap the pressy. O.P. (and corresponding ability to get and keep himself in top condition) a real concern so may need to be handled delicately for some time (at less than optimum conditioning, as has been the case for some years). We made need to be patient in this respect as he probably won't hit the ground running but he is a definite talent. Balanced, smart, knows how to find the pill and regularly pin-points 50-60m passes.
MUSTON, Beau (22) [Haw] A more prolific Jarred Brennan with big "X" and hurt factors. Very much in the mould of a young Kouta. Hard-running acrobat, albeit more athlete than natural footballer and, as such, my prediction for him assumes complete recovery from his knee injury (else all bets are off).
CLARK, Mitchell (9) [Bri] Enigmatic talent who has almost everything ability-wise when in the right frame of mind. Definite AFL position if (!) he wants to apply. I spent more time analysing him than any other player and I still feel uncomfortable re the risk of him being high maintenance. Still has a lot to learn about footy and application but, when switched on, his skills are breath-taking. Upside versus risk but, like Hurn (and Franklin last year), I think he is a "big stage" player who has been in need of the challenge of AFL.
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Will be AT LEAST GOOD (I didn't bother too much about the order but its very(!) roughly in the order of their upside with some allowance for my level of confidence in them achieving it) A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it.
DEMPSEY, Courtenay (19) [Ess] Slippery, smooth, daring. Bit of magic. Raw, skinny but potential game-breaker.
OAKLEY-NICHOLLS, Jarrad (8) [Ric] Silky tallish speedster. More Porsche than 4WD but has X-factor. Big upside.
MCKINLEY, Ben (29) [WCE] 6' purposeful type known for big grab on lead but his work-rate, ethic and smarts are equally impressive. So-so pace - so so what? Value in other ways and will prove more versatile than commonly perceived.
HOOPER, Rhan (41) [Bri] Skinny dashing free-wheeling ball-carrier with a few tricks. Needs to treat opponents with more respect but seems a centre-stage performer and is likely to embrace AFL. There's not much of him but he is another potential game-breaker.
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] This is a huge call for a rookie but I believe this kid is severely underrated. Athletic newby ruck with wingman pace. Vision and quick hands in close, and inside ethic. Great upside but will have to bide his time.
THOMAS, Dale (2) [Col] Not routinely special at anything and kicking is mixed bag but a quickish terrier dasher with a bit of everything. Works hard both ways, is consistent game by game, and has game-breaking flair.
MURPHY, Marc (1) [Car] Creative predator and linker. Not outside per se and gets his share of good clearances but is more smart predator than hard-nut. Not lightning quick but quickish and provides run, has smarts and vision, reads play and ball well. Kicking over short distance can be very good, albeit not routinely, but struggles for depth and does his share of floaters. I felt Murphy would be best suited to a team that already had quality First Dibs onballers and/or quality rucks (eg Hawthorn). Carlton does not fit that description. I disagree with the popular perception of him as a traditional in 'n under rover. I see him as more a footy-smart swoop-through creator and linker. He will be a good AFL player but not of the class or impact of a Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hodge, Judd, Ball, Cooney or Griffen.
JONES, Nathan (12) [Mel] When only a ute will do. Clean. Very powerful motor, low km. Extra bull-bar. Current RWC.
ANTHONY, John (37) [Col] Versatile, pacy, athletic, hard-running physical tall.
DOUGLAS, Richard (16) [Ade] 68kg as very top-age. Ability to bulk up is my only query. Quality user, speed, smarts, hands, overhead. Tick all boxes ... except size.
BAILEY, Max (18) [Haw] Raw mobile giant with good ethic and smarts. Will need time but great upside.
DRUM, Marcus (10) [Fre] Quality person and good TAC form in 2005 but didn't impress me quite as much upside-wise as he did in 2004 (didn't show opponents as much respect, zoning off too often, and kicking was dicey). Good reader and ultra cool. Loves to carry the ball and links very well, albeit lacking a little zip (although pace has improved). Courageous and strong overhead but may struggle to bulk up enough for KP. Will make AFL but must make more of his kicks hurt.
MILLS, Wayde (25) [Bri] Reliable young plumber. No job too big. Work 24/7. Blue-collar but no-one is more dedicated. Never say die. Raw but will succeed through sheer persistence and focus.
VARCOE, Travis (15) [Gee] Electrifying bottom-age skinny flashy dasher with exciting upside but inconsistent kick.
RYDER, Patrick (7) [Ess] Athletic short ruck. Cruises too much instead of pushing himself but undoubted skills and athleticism. Would be in the top group if there was a guarantee that he will lift his intensity / work rate. That's the query though, even allowing for him being bottom-age.
HUGHES, Cleve (24) [Ric] Fast-lead marking forward. Reliable kick for goal. Very top-age but intensity and ethic are on the up and his potency with it
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] Disappointing '05 (excuses) after looking real AFL in 2004. I'm keeping faith as he is a genuine footballer, albeit of so-so pace.
SWALLOW, Andrew (43) [Kan] Quick, dashing goer. Courageous accountable ball carrier with vision in close but must eliminate tunnel vision when on the run. Makes this group despite dodgy kicking because I believe his main technique fault (transference of COM) should be fixable.
THORNTON, Kristin (54) [Syd] Smart bottom-age HBF/wing. Good user (hand or foot). Dual-sided. Vision and quick hands, especially clever in close. Can accumulate, or shut opponent down. Skinny but versatile.
LOWER, Nick (30) [Por] Quality user. Very slick inside. Strong overhead. Unaccountable but creative, cool, balanced. Needs to push himself more and make more use of his pace.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] Skilled improver. Quick, clever. Good traffic management and stop-play / traffic clearances (incl centre bounce). Lights up a game for 20min. When/if he starts showing up for 100 minutes, will be AFL and probably still will be even if he doesn't.
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THE FOLLOWING WILL PLAY PLENTY OF AFL AND QUITE LIKELY BE GOOD BUT I DOUBT WILL BE AS GOOD AS TOUTED (in draft order):-
ELLIS, Xavier (3) [Haw] Very smart, ultra confident, outside finisher who plays his own game and treats opponents with no respect. I admire his skills but can he lift intensity enough and bulk up enough to reached the heights others have predicted?
KENNEDY, Josh (4) [Car] Physical KPP. Not silky but adept, reliable. Blue overalls, rock-solid goer. Excellent work and team ethic, can think quickly but lacks zip off the mark, is not especially reliable overhead and is an iffy kick.
DOWLER, Beau (6) [Haw] Slim leading forward, fairly reliant on marking. Excellent timer of leads, reliable overhead and usually a very good kick for goal. A bit one-trick but it's a good trick. Query below the knee and pace / agility (although has improved a lot) and I suspect he might always be slimmish.
PFEIFFER, Darren (17) [Ade] Fearless 6' dasher and high-flyer but kicking, decision-making and accountability a worry. Will play AFL but his hurt factors worry me.
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EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite" or nearly so:
STANLEY, Daniel (21) [Col] All-round strong goer who plays tall. Gives 110%, good reader, good defensively but disposal decision-making and especially kicking bother me, as does balance. Will play AFL but is perhaps too NQR for any sustainable specific AFL role.
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These players caused me MUCH ANGST in assessing their AFL potential (in draft order) -
PENDLEBURY, Scott (5) [Col] Switched back to footy from basketball only recently. Improving. Good work rate, especially hard running and 2nd and 3rd efforts. Lacks physicality but is ultra confident and has a touch of class and an attractive range of attributes. Some of his best work (especially evasion, vision and feeds) is from inside traffic, despite him being essentially an outside type, albeit good overhead. Tempting. Not the "certainty" one would expect of a #5 pick but, forced to call, I think he will be a handy player who will play some good AFL games. Could even be much better than handy but I have some concerns I'd need to see him address before I'd predict that with great confidence.
HIGGINS, Shaun (11) [WBD] "Read well, get own ball, dispose quickly and usually reliably with good vision". That's good but is it enough? Bottom-age, very highly rated and will certainly play AFL but is not blessed with pace, plays a mainly short game, and is unaccountable. Forced to call, I think he will be a handy player who will play some very good AFL quarters.
IBBOTSON, Garrick (26) [Fre] Reactive bottom-age pacy late starter. Moves well but is intensity query. Didn't play footy until about 14 and sometimes it shows. Predator (maybe too predator?) whose best role might be sweeper across half-back. Forced to call, I expect him to play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
OBST, Alan (48) [Ade] A "take them on, give you run from the backline/wing" slim tall who is a bit quicker than his DC times suggest but not quick per se. I see him as a tall HBF, perhaps even wing. Will furnish into a nice athletic build but I don't see him as AFL KP due to unlikely strength. (Struggles body on body even at U18 level). Trademarks are (a) Contest the mark, gather the spill then run the ball downfield. Finish off with a dubious kick. ( Run, contest, 2nd effort, 3rd effort, run. Rapid improver in last year or so. Works hard off the ball. Runs hard both ways. Can be relied upon for quick recovery and 2nd and 3rd efforts. Very good evasion and agility on the run but he is not a quick thinker or reliable decision-maker. Elements of Brent Staker. Forced to call, I think he will play AFL games and will suit Adelaide's style but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
LONERGAN, Sam (50) [Ess] Clearance specialist who gives his all. Dedicated (and has had to face some logistical obstacles in his U18 time) but class query, lacks zip off the mark, and kicking is unreliable. Strong overhead but 6cm reach disadvantage won't help at AFL level. Forced to call, I think he will play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity. Much will depend on his ability to address his kicking reliability.
LAIDLAW, Matthew (51) [Syd] Very top-age but an improver. Intensity query (doesn't seem to push himself enough) but has balance, poise, and quite good pace when he cares to use it. Forced to call, I think he will play some AFL games but I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
LOOBY, Tim (R40) [Por] Josh Hunt comparisons but with more dash and not as routinely footy-smart. Big improver in 2005. Query re how much upside left. Forced to call, I'm sceptical about AFL longevity.
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UP AGAINST IT (from National & Preseason drafts, in draft order) - I'd like to see every committed draftee succeed but these would surprise me: (Almost every draftee gets AFL games these days. I'm talking about sustained AFL careers)
BIRCHALL, Grant (14) [Haw] Somewhat outside linker. Good pace but waste of height. Small man trapped in a big man's body. Has a bit but frustrates me. Plays too cheap for mine and I'm not convinced he is special enough in any one aspect.
BOWER, Paul (20) [Car] Agile bottom-age tall defender. NQR. Bigger on zoning off and creating ball movement than on body to body accountability. Struggles on the gorillas but provides very good run out of defence. What do you do with a tall? He roves the spill and creates space extremely well with excellent reflexes, evasion and timing and he likes to free-wheel through space and set up play downfield. What do you do with a tall defender who plays that style but lacks some pace and who doesn't play body on body enough (although improving) and is not a strong contested mark? What AFL role?
COOK, Ryan (23) [Col] Unusual type - like Pendlebury, is an outsider who nevertheless gets plenty of hardball inside "stationery" traffic and also works hard at harassing any nearby opponent who has the ball. Good endurance, covers ground and is team-orientated with god intentions. Bottom-age improver but too many flaws - positioning / smarts, hands, disposal, hurt factors. Can look quick over a few metres but I'm dubious of his pace beyond that.
ADDISON, Dylan (27) [WBD] Nice size, moves quite well but doesn't impact enough.
RIGGIO, Matt (28) [Kan] Nice-size, hard-running mop-up utility and linker. Too mop-up / reactive. Not special in any single attribute. Keeps himself in good fitness nick and works hard but seems immature off-field compared to most of his peers. Bit too NQR is various aspects.
SPANGHER, Matthew (34) [WCE] Disciplined, hard-working, hard-running tall defender but probably NQR for AFL re pace, kicking, and overhead judgement / positioning.
OWEN, Stephen (35) [Gee] Nice size, quick off the mark but doesn't impact enough.
EDWARDS, Jake (36) [Car] Quick, tall improver who will get the most out of himself but suffers significant reach disadvantage and kicking can be dodgy.
WARNOCK, Robert (42) [Fre] Dedicated 205cm mobile ruck with nice skills but at only 80kg as extremely top age is likely to always be too skinny for AFL. To put his weight into context, he is 5cm taller than Guy Richards who has a similar frame. When Richards was drafted he was a bottom-aged 78kg, 3kg heavier than Robbie was at the same age and Robbie is 5cm taller. Richards 5 years into his AFL time has increased his weight by an impressive 20% but is still skinny.
CARLILE, Alipate (44) [Por] Top-age disciplined last-line negating defender a la Prestigiacomo but doesn't mind a little dash either. Fined down since '04 and has continually improved over the past 2 years (with still plenty of scope through further chiselling / conditioning) but I suspect lacks enough tricks for AFL.
GAMBLE, Ryan (47) [Gee] Too enigmatic. Many attractive tricks but gets caught in no-mans land too often (runs around as if he were an umpire or a club runner) and doesn't push himself. Rose from U19s to Seniors in the one year but was nevertheless inconsistent. Allowances have to be made as he missed virtually 2 months with a broken jaw and had also moved from rural SA to Adelaide for '05 but I suspect he will always be inconsistent. Best kicks are excellent but he is also capable of the odd mongrel. Not genuinely reliable overhead but big leap, can take a screamer and attacks his marks. Speed on the run is acceptable, although not flash, but he is slow off the mark. Poor running style, a la an Olympic walker.
NEAGLE, Jay (39) [Ess] Much potential improvement once chiselled down (a la Ling) but significant class query.
BUCKLEY, Simon (53) [Mel] 189cm athlete rather than footballer. Long kick but lacks smarts.
BRABAZON, Ryan (59) [Syd] Trademark is "fairly clean hands to get at edge of traffic, then cool sidestep out of trouble, then accurate feed or kick, showing good vision, then run on immediately to link up through space. Run, run, run." Slightly older than top-age, outsidish midfield ball-magnet who has improved enormously this year in poise, hurt factors, intensity, positioning, and pace (from a low base in all cases). What we have now is a kid with borderline acceptable pace who gets a fair share of his own ball, routinely looks for options (regardless of pressure), gets much greater value from his disposals, and thinks his way out of trouble. In short, he now earns most of his possessions and he makes the opposition pay for a good proportion of them. Team man, leader. Big engine. Indefatigable. Runs hard and routinely supplies a linking option. Plays smallish but also mainly outsidish - not a combination I strongly like in a player who does not have at least "very good" pace and is not a ball-carrier. He's still a bit too NQR for AFL in some key areas for his type - pace (especially off the mark), versatility, depth, build / strength, ground level, is not a ball-carrier, 5cm reach disadvantage. For what specific AFL role is he well suited? He isn't quite quick enough for an outside mid and not quite clean enough, strong enough and maybe inside enough for inside mid.
BARTRAM, Clinton (60) [Mel] Hard-running goer but lacks class, has a 6cm reach disadvantage and kicking lets him down. Handy, but not special, pace. If he were to make AFL, it would probably have to be as a run-with. He probably doesn't have enough tricks or silk for other roles. That would play to his major attribute viz endurance.
NEVILLE, Heath (68) [Mel] Athletic 6' HBF. Gets own ball but query disposal, accountability & play-reading.
ILES, Sam (P 2) [Col] Very top-age hard-running trier but really lacks smarts and poise. Plays too much in the style of a trier in an under 12 game. Runs "non-stop" from contest to contest but doesn't participate enough when he gets there. Quality person, very committed off-field, and has great endurance but is too reactive, is not clean and gets poor hurt factors from his possessions (He is quite a good kick when under no pressure but otherwise does too many turnovers, dinky "nothing" kicks, unnecessarily rushed disposals, some poor decision-making).
WHITE, Matthew (P 5) [Ric] Predator hard-running compulsive quick dasher. Ankle problems throughout '05. Hard worker on and off field. Fierce tackler. Will break the play open and carry the ball but is not clean or quick-thinking enough and disposal / hurt factor a worry.
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BARGAINS (Late picks i.e. >40, excluding F/S, who could belie their draft position) (in draft order).
HOOPER, Rhan (41) [Bri] (See above)
SWALLOW, Andrew (43) [Kan] (See above)
THORNTON, Kristin (54) [Syd] (See above)
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] (See above)
LOWER, Ed (R10) [Kan] Looks genuine AFL at times but needs to lift work-rate and make better use of speed. Tends to play big quarters rather than solid games at this stage.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] (See above)
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] (see above)
ELLIOTT, Sam (R53) [Ade] Natural "First Dibs" onballer, also dangerous up forward. 2005 marred by injury. Is better than that. Question is, how much better? I like. I would have had him in the "Will be at least good" category except that Adelaide already has a welter of his type so opportunities won't come easily.
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ROOKIES WITH A FUTURE (Rookies who I think might make AFL) (in draft order):
NB: I realise these are very big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability.
MCENTEE, Luke (R 3) [Haw] (See above)
LOWER, Ed (R10) [Kan] (See above)
CORR, Cathal (R14) [StK] The coalminer's coalminer. Iffy kicking and not at all silky but plays tall (excellent overhead, handy reach advantage) and with uncompromising ferocity and has quick hands. Unfashionable, rough around the edges, volatile and needs to improve kicking reliability (and technique) but I'd like him in the trenches with me. Improving all the time.
SIMPKIN, Jonathan (R16) [Syd] (See above).
HOCKING, Heath (R20) [Ess] (See above)
COX, Shannon (R33) [Col] Very poor early '05 but improved heaps (form, focus, application) in 2nd half of the year. Query ability to maintain focus and application but he has some special attributes and shows promise as a work in progress.
ELLIOTT, Sam (R53) [Ade] (See above)
I considered including
REDDEN, Thomas (R29) [Ade]. However in recent times he seems to have more of the stereotype muso persona than that of a fully-committed AFL aspirant and he might also struggle for opportunities due to Adelaide's list. Lacks pace over a distance and awareness is only so-so but is otherwise a genuine footballer. Poor-man's version of Michael Tuck (even his on-field demeanour) - good overhead, tireless, never gives in, covers heaps of ground, often looks to be in cruise mode but always manages to be where the action is. Has a footy brain, albeit a "bit junkyard dog"ish and currently inclined to try to do too much. Always looks tired but never stops running. Despite lack of pace, I think he can make AFL if he adheres to the off-field dedication expected of an AFL player ... but that's the query.
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MISSED OUT on being drafted but I rate them
ARMFIELD, Dennis - Is raw but a quick-thinking, hard-working, courageous dasher who is strong overhead, physical, and mentally tough. Ex rugby kid with plenty of upside. No-one else in AFL recruiting is on the same page as me re this kid but I see definite AFL potential. I hope he doesn't think his AFL chances are gone. He owes it to himself to aspire to play AFL. I believe he is THE kid who snuck under the radar and I expect him to have a big year in WAFL Seniors in 2006.
EBERT, Ricky - Not pacy but is a quality user with vision and balance. Genuine footballer.
ADAMS, Leigh - Compact but versatile, smart, dangerous. Bottom-age natural footballer who I expect will get drafted in 2006.
GRANT, Grae - Enigmatic and doesn't push himself enough on-field but has range of silky skills when switched on. Will get drafted in 2006 if he lifts his mental toughness. It's in his own hands.
KELLEHER, Brad - In-between height but good kick, pace, hands, versatility and smarts. Needs to push himself more though.
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I also believe Andrew Banjanin, Sam Gosbell and Andrew Fairchild deserved to be rookied ahead of many who were. Banjanin is a weight query but an ideal developing ruck Rookie whose 2005 was ruined by injury (mainly O.P.). Gosbell is a quick, hard-running, smart, balanced, accountable, strong 186cm defender who is very good overhead and copped a couple of injuries. Fairchild has had his last 2 seasons disrupted by O.P. and hamstring injury. Not super quick and I don't know much about his character but is very strong overhead, especially on a lead, and a goer on his day. Was highly unlikely to get rookied but I think he is underrated. Another rapidly improving smokey was Andrew Crosby. 188cm dual-sided utility who has gained in confidence very recently. Quick brain and genuine smarts. Nice height and broad range of attributes (incl overhead, vision, athleticism, ethic) for a utility, albeit still a somewhat outside one. Scott Bricknell's kicking in 2005 was very disappointing and probably cost him his draft chances but he is a balanced, assured, natural "ruck-rover". David Marcius, who has worked hard on his game and pace for good U18 results, and Nick Lynch, a strong overhead, quick forward with dicey kicking, could also consider themselves unlucky but may not have the scope for further improvement that some others have.
