Combined BigFooty Phantom Draft

[nob2210]

Hey people...

So over the last 4 or 5 weeks I've been compiling a statistical analysis of all phantom drafts done (of at least 50 picks or more) so far on this board. OK, maybe it's just a spreadsheet at the moment, but hopefully it will give some indication as to how BigFooty sees this year's draftees. When done, it will include the players in order of their average pick, but also their highest pick, lowest pick and the pick they were selected at most.

Before I post results though, I need a few things from you...

1. How many more people are thinking of including a draft of at least the first 50 picks but haven't posted yet?
2. Of the ones already posted, is anyone going to update theirs to make it at least 50 picks?
3. Is there any other stats you wish for me to try to include?
4. When do you think I should post results? I was thinking two days before the draft...

Let me know what you guys think...

 

[Hagla]

Sounds good nob. I haven't done a draft or anything but would be interested to see the results. Hopefully dosser11 gets a move on to get his up to 50.

 

[Wally Matera]

You have far too much time on your hands.

 

[lionshine]

Quigley will have one up soon. I suggest you take a few days out of your life to read and analysis that one though

 

[GloblFotbalCrsis]

I have changed my phantom a bit since posting it and I know a few other do as well. Would you update the collective one or just leave it as it was when this occurs?

 

[the mighty T]

Quigley will have one up soon. I suggest you take a few days out of your life to read and analysis that one though

I'm taking some annual leave for the experience

 

[nob2210]

Quigley will have one up soon. I suggest you take a few days out of your life to read and analysis that one though

Haha - good thing I'm only really worried about the analysis of numbers. Will definitely book in a day for it though...

 

[nob2210]

I have changed my phantom a bit since posting it and I know a few other do as well. Would you update the collective one or just leave it as it was when this occurs?

Will try and change it as you guys do. Have already done this for Knightmare's and Chris25's drafts and will do the same with all of them.

Forgot to mention that I will also not be including any drafts that have F/S pickups in the wrong spot, so if you want yours included make sure Daniher, Viney and Hunter are in the right spots.

 

[Tazwegian]

Awesome. I was thinking about doing this also, but am way too lazy. Glad someone else has stepped up.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Before I post results though, I need a few things from you...

1. How many more people are thinking of including a draft of at least the first 50 picks but haven't posted yet? Quigs, Thunderstuck, Foj1 (not sure he will still do his), maybe myself
2. Of the ones already posted, is anyone going to update theirs to make it at least 50 picks?
3. Is there any other stats you wish for me to try to include? Highest drafted position, lowest, average...
4. When do you think I should post results? I was thinking two days before the draft...If you had the will power, you could start now and then as each mock draft gets added, you can show movements in ratings. That will show bolters and sliders.... Once again that is a massive effort.

Let me know what you guys think...

Those are just some thoughts.

 

[nob2210]

Those are just some thoughts.

Thanks mate.

What I might do is try to give a top 50 so far at some stage tonight, then a final list day before the draft...

 

[nob2210]

OK - here are some of the results so far. Have limited this analysis to just the top 50 picks for each draft. If they weren't picked in the top 50, they weren't included. On that basis, here are a few notes...

• There were 13 mock drafts used at this stage. They came from Knightmare, Chris25, roos_fanatic08, TJ1996, willoblue, juzzo, son of god, GloblFotbalCrsis, Snoop Dog, Sin City, FiveStrings, Quigley and the Phantom Board Mock Draft. I know some of them have been updated, and I have endeavoured to update my results at the same time but may have missed some.
• To be included, a player needed to have been selected in at least 5 drafts. In order to get my 50 players exactly, the 2 lowest ranked players on average who were chosen exactly 5 times (Brant Colledge and Michael Close) were excluded.
• I have not included any Team Board Phantoms as the lack of knowledge of some posters (myself included) may skew the results. I may include them for the real thing.
• Order given is in terms of the players average pick, not where he has been picked most.

I will put 10 players in per post...

 

[nob2210]

Pick #1 - Lachie Whitfield
Average Pick - 1.08
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 1 (12/13)
Lowest Pick - 1
Highest Pick - 2

Pick #2 - Jimmy Toumpas
Average Pick - 2.62
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 2 (9/13)
Lowest Pick - 2
Highest Pick - 5

Pick #3 - Brodie Grundy
Average Pick - 4.23
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 3 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 1
Highest Pick - 12

Pick #4 - Oliver Wines
Average Pick - 5.15
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 4 (7/13)
Lowest Pick - 4
Highest Pick - 9

Pick #5 - Sam Mayes
Average Pick - 6.77
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 9 (7/13)
Lowest Pick - 5
Highest Pick - 9

Pick #6 - Lachlan Plowman
Average Pick - 7.46
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 3 & 6 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 3
Highest Pick - 22

Pick #7 - Jonathan O'Rourke
Average Pick - 7.54
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 3 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 3
Highest Pick - 16

Pick #8 - Jake Stringer
Average Pick - 8.92
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 6 & 9 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 3
Highest Pick - 16

Pick #9 - Jackson Macrae
Average Pick - 9.77
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 11 (5/13)
Lowest Pick - 5
Highest Pick - 16

Pick #10 - Joe Daniher
Average Pick - 10
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - (13/13)
Lowest Pick - 10
Highest Pick - 10

 

[nob2210]

Pick #11 - Kristian Jaksch
Average Pick - 11.85
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 8 (6/13)
Lowest Pick - 8
Highest Pick - 20

Pick #12 - Troy Menzel
Average Pick - 11.92
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 12 (5/13)
Lowest Pick - 4
Highest Pick - 16

Pick #13 - Nick Vlaustin
Average Pick - 13.46
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 13 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 7
Highest Pick - 23

Pick #14 - Dayle Garlett
Average Pick - 14.08
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 15, 18 & 19 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 5
Highest Pick - 20

Pick #15 - Ben Kennedy
Average Pick - 15.46
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 15 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 9
Highest Pick - 22

Pick #16 - Tom Clurey
Average Pick - 16.23
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 14 (7/13)
Lowest Pick - 12
Highest Pick - 24

Pick #17 - Mason Shaw
Average Pick - 17.31
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 17 (9/13)
Lowest Pick - 11
Highest Pick - 24

Pick #18 - Taylor Garner
Average Pick - 17.62
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 13 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 9
Highest Pick - 42

Pick #19 - Josh Simpson
Average Pick - 20.31
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 19 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 13
Highest Pick - 29

Pick #20 - Jesse Lonergan
Average Pick - 20.38
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 23 (5/13)
Lowest Pick - 8
Highest Pick - 26

 

[nob2210]

Pick #21 - Tim Membrey
Average Pick - 20.92
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 21 (5/13)
Lowest Pick - 13
Highest Pick - 34

Pick #22 - Sam Colquhoun
Average Pick - 23.62
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 25 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 18
Highest Pick - 30

Pick #23 - Tanner Smith
Average Pick - 23.69
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 20, 22, 24 & 26 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 18
Highest Pick - 37

Pick #24 - Nathan Hrovat
Average Pick - 24.23
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 21 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 18
Highest Pick - 35

Pick #25 - Jack Viney
Average Pick - 27.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 27 (13/13)
Lowest Pick - 27
Highest Pick - 27

Pick #26 - Nathan Wright
Average Pick - 27.58
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 28 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 23
Highest Pick - not selected (36)

Pick #27 - Nicholas Graham
Average Pick - 28.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 29 (5/13)
Lowest Pick - 19
Highest Pick - not selected (35)

Pick #28 - Liam McBean
Average Pick - 28.23
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 26 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 20
Highest Pick - 39

Pick #29 - Tim O'Brien
Average Pick - 28.75
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 30 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 18
Highest Pick - not selected (37)

Pick #30 - Aiden Corr
Average Pick - 32.71
Number of Drafts Picked - 7/13
Most Common Pick - 45 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 14
Highest Pick - not selected (45)

 

[nob2210]

Pick #31 - Jason Pongracic
Average Pick - 33.67
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 30, 35 & 43 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 25
Highest Pick - not selected (43)

Pick #32 - Matthew Haynes
Average Pick - 33.75
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 28, 32 & 34 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 23
Highest Pick - not selected (49)

Pick #33 - Tim Broomhead
Average Pick - 33.92
Number of Drafts Picked - 12/13
Most Common Pick - 31 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 24
Highest Pick - not selected (46)

Pick #34 - Rory Atkins
Average Pick - 35.31
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 34 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 26
Highest Pick - 47

Pick #35 - Matthew McDonough
Average Pick - 35.50
Number of Drafts Picked - 8/13
Most Common Pick - 31 & 42 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 28
Highest Pick - not selected (46)

Pick #36 - Dean Towers
Average Pick - 36.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 32 & 38 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 20
Highest Pick - 49

Pick #37 - Spencer White
Average Pick - 36.91
Number of Drafts Picked - 11/13
Most Common Pick - 33, 36 & 47 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 24
Highest Pick - not selected (47)

Pick #38 - Andrew Boston
Average Pick - 37.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 7/13
Most Common Pick - 33 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 24
Highest Pick - not selected (45)

Pick #39 - Adam Carter
Average Pick - 37.23
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 36 & 37 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 29
Highest Pick - 49

Pick #40 - Nick Rodda
Average Pick - 37.29
Number of Drafts Picked - 7/13
Most Common Pick - 46 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 25
Highest Pick - not selected (49)

 

[nob2210]

Pick #41 - Jackson Thurlow
Average Pick - 37.57
Number of Drafts Picked - 7/13
Most Common Pick - 42 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 30
Highest Pick - not selected (42)

Pick #42 - Marvin Warrell
Average Pick - 38.60
Number of Drafts Picked - 5/13
Most Common Pick - N/A
Lowest Pick - 31
Highest Pick - not selected (49)

Pick #43 - Brodie Murdoch
Average Pick - 39.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 5/13
Most Common Pick - N/A
Lowest Pick - 30
Highest Pick - not selected (48)

Pick #44 - Tom Temay
Average Pick - 40.17
Number of Drafts Picked - 6/13
Most Common Pick - N/A
Lowest Pick - 32
Highest Pick - not selected (49)

Pick #45 - Laine Wilkins
Average Pick - 40.63
Number of Drafts Picked - 8/13
Most Common Pick - 43 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 29
Highest Pick - not selected (49)

Pick #46 - Sam Lowrie
Average Pick - 41.25
Number of Drafts Picked - 8/13
Most Common Pick - 40 (4/13)
Lowest Pick - 33
Highest Pick - not selected (47)

Pick #47 - Marco Paparone
Average Pick - 41.50
Number of Drafts Picked - 8/13
Most Common Pick - 41 & 48 (2/13)
Lowest Pick - 31
Highest Pick - not selected (48)

Pick #48 - Kamdyn McIntosh
Average Pick - 41.64
Number of Drafts Picked - 11/13
Most Common Pick - 46 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 26
Highest Pick - not selected (47)

Pick #49 - Tim Sumner
Average Pick - 42.22
Number of Drafts Picked - 9/13
Most Common Pick - 48 (3/13)
Lowest Pick - 30
Highest Pick - not selected (48)

Pick #50 - Lachie Hunter
Average Pick - 50.00
Number of Drafts Picked - 13/13
Most Common Pick - 50 (13/13)
Lowest Pick - 50
Highest Pick - 50

 

[GloblFotbalCrsis]

Did you include my draft as I had Simpson at 13 (because of http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/151058/default.aspx) and you said the lowest he went was 15

 

[nob2210]

Did you include my draft as I had Simpson at 13 (because of http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/151058/default.aspx) and you said the lowest he went was 15

Yep, sorry. Misread the spreadsheet...

 

[Tazwegian]

Did you include my draft as I had Simpson at 13 (because of http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/151058/default.aspx) and you said the lowest he went was 15

Recount!

 

[GloblFotbalCrsis]

Hey nob2210 thanks for doing this by the way, and what dates are you planing to reveal the rest of the data?

 

[nob2210]

Hey nob2210 thanks for doing this by the way, and what dates are you planing to reveal the rest of the data?

Just finished of this version - will be putting up the final results probably on Wednesday.

The hardest thing to work out is what to do with the guys who aren't picked for every draft. For example, Mason Wood was selected in 4 drafts with an average selection of 34.50. Makes it tough to slot him in somewhere. If I have time for the final cut, I think I'll find all the guys that have been selected with a top 50 pick at some stage (currently 91 players), and where they haven't been selected in the top 50, see if they have been selected outside that and include those picks as well...

Any other advice on what can be changed?

 

[GloblFotbalCrsis]

Just finished of this version - will be putting up the final results probably on Wednesday.

The hardest thing to work out is what to do with the guys who aren't picked for every draft. For example, Mason Wood was selected in 4 drafts with an average selection of 34.50. Makes it tough to slot him in somewhere. If I have time for the final cut, I think I'll find all the guys that have been selected with a top 50 pick at some stage (currently 91 players), and where they haven't been selected in the top 50, see if they have been selected outside that and include those picks as well...

Any other advice on what can be changed?

not really, you have done a great job

 

[Tazwegian]

For players that don't get selected, maybe just give them a +10% penalty on the total number of players in that draft. So for a draft that has a total of 70 picks, any player not selected gets 77. A player not selected in 100 gets selected at 110. So there would be a larger penalty, as there should, for not being selected in a larger draft. This should make your averages easier to work out. A player who doesn't get selected in half the drafts, but goes pretty high in the other half, doesn't deserve the average he would get for just those drafts that he is selected in.

Also, if there is just one draft that is an outlier in a non selection, then I'd eliminate it for that selection. For example, if some phantom drafter doesn't choose Whitfield at all, but he is #1 in everyone elses, then just eliminate that outlying result. A player who is widely tipped to go high doesn't deserve a massive hit to his average based on one person's opinion.

 

[nob2210]

For players that don't get selected, maybe just give them a +10% penalty on the total number of players in that draft. So for a draft that has a total of 70 picks, any player not selected gets 77. A player not selected in 100 gets selected at 110. So there would be a larger penalty, as there should, for not being selected in a larger draft. This should make your averages easier to work out. A player who doesn't get selected in half the drafts, but goes pretty high in the other half, doesn't deserve the average he would get for just those drafts that he is selected in.

Also, if there is just one draft that is an outlier in a non selection, then I'd eliminate it for that selection. For example, if some phantom drafter doesn't choose Whitfield at all, but he is #1 in everyone elses, then just eliminate that outlying result. A player who is widely tipped to go high doesn't deserve a massive hit to his average based on one person's opinion.

Yeah first half of that post was pretty much what i was thinking of doing. Was thinking just adding ten onto the draft if a player wasn't selected, but that percentage works better. The other problem is for someone like Ben Jacobs, he isn't selected in some drafts because they were done before he nominated, not because the Phantom author didn't think he'd get picked.

Not sure about the second paragraph. Just looking at someone like Quigley's draft, who is universally seen as one of the more knowledgeable, he has a few guys lower down compared to everyone else (Plowman 22, Garner 42). Don't think that means we should discount his opinion...