Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[Footy Matt]

Let me summarise my previous post.

If we go back to 2019 mode, even if totally vaccinated, 80,000 people per year die in Australia from covid (if my assumptions are correct).

I get it, you would rather have things back in 2019 mode and have 80,000 covid deaths a year than be in 2020/21 mode and have 8,000 or 800 covid deaths a year.

160,000 people die each year anyway, its just how half of them die that's different, i.e. strapped to a ventilator with no family by their side.

Your entitled to that opinion, just don't expect me to vote for you.

What I think we should do, and I've been saying this since my first post is:
- Allow those under 50 (that are not vulnerable) to go back to business as usual once immunised.
- Lower the pension age to 60 or introduce a universal wage that kicks in at age 50
- Maintain a decent level of social distancing in situations where you are exposed to people over 50 (or who are vulnerable).
- If you are vulnerable don't be a dumbass.

So basically - be Japandanavia (take the best practices from both).

I could live with it if they implemented most of those suggestions, but what I’m struggling to understand is what continuing to put crippling restrictions on society is going to achieve in the long run, even looking at it from an egocentric health perspective? If everyone who wants to be is vaccinated, how does opening right up the moment that happens differ from opening up a couple of years down the track? The people who don’t get vaccinated or don’t reach immunity are going to get the disease eventually regardless, because the vaccine is the last line of defence? Restrictions and social distancing would just drag the pandemic out longer.

Additionally, current research on the vaccine has it 100% effective at preventing severe life-ending illness regardless, so where do your number of death examples come from? Are you solely talking about people who refuse to vaccinate?

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday it will require a negative Covid-19 test from all air passengers entering the United States -- a move it says may help slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Air passengers will be required to get a viral test within three days before their flight to the United States departs, and to provide written documentation of their lab results, or documentation of having recovered from Covid-19, the agency said in a statement to CNN.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield is expected to sign the order on Tuesday and it will go into effect on January 26.
"Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continue to emerge in countries around the world, and there is evidence of increased transmissibility of some of these variants," the CDC said in a statement. "With the US already in surge status, the testing requirement for air passengers will help slow the spread of the virus as we work to vaccinate the American public."

 

[DaTBird187]

View attachment 1039721

Fans pack the streets of Tuscaloosa, Alabama after the local Crimson Tide team won the National College Chamopionship on Monday. Alabama recorded 24,000 COVID infections in the last week. One suspects that that figure might rise in the next few days.

Natural selection.

 

[DaTBird187]

This doesn’t really answer your question but is interesting nevertheless

Kamlesh Campaigneri

 

[raptalia]

As I said, I just did the maths.
I'm not medically trained and so my assumptions of what the definition of certain medical terms mean may be absolutely incorrect.
And as sobrave said, perhaps only 1/5th of the US has got it and who knows, that may be a worst case.

I'm putting on my bush epidemiologist's hat and putting my best guess of numbers out there as a starting point so I can better understand and then better plan for the next few years.

Please note I have not taken herd immunity into account.

Yeah, I am not really sure how these immunologists work it out. They often say that you only need 70% of the population to be vaccinated to develop herd immunity. I am never sure what happens to the other 30% who are not vaccinated.

As for the numbers infected official figures in the UK suggest that at least one person in 30 in the greater London area had been or is infected with COVID. I imagine it is probably similar in other densely populated parts of Europe and the US. On that basis if London was not in lockdown and you walked around the streets for an hour you would probably come into contact some one who has the virus.

One in THIRTY people in London have Covid - four times higher than a month ago

ONE in thirty people in London have Covid, four times higher than a month ago. But it could be as high as one in 25, experts say, as the capital faces the brunt of the highly contagious new variant…

www.thesun.co.uk

In any case there will always be a percentage of the population who will not bother to get vaccinated. The COVID virus will probably mutate around the vaccines which will be modified to suit so we will have to get a different jab every year just as we do with the influenza vaccine. The other thing the immunologists keep telling us is that vaccines are not a silver bullet so it looks like we will be living with this virus for some years and we will have to treat it as we do influenza- keep our shots up to date.

Once the vaccine is rolled out there will have to be an end to lock downs and international travel will have to open up. The only problem is we do not want a situation where the health system becomes overloaded with people who are not vaccinated. Hopefully at least 70% of the Australian population with take the opportunity to get vaccinated.

 

[DaTBird187]

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday it will require a negative Covid-19 test from all air passengers entering the United States -- a move it says may help slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Air passengers will be required to get a viral test within three days before their flight to the United States departs, and to provide written documentation of their lab results, or documentation of having recovered from Covid-19, the agency said in a statement to CNN.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield is expected to sign the order on Tuesday and it will go into effect on January 26.
"Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continue to emerge in countries around the world, and there is evidence of increased transmissibility of some of these variants," the CDC said in a statement. "With the US already in surge status, the testing requirement for air passengers will help slow the spread of the virus as we work to vaccinate the American public."

If ever a horse had bolted.

 

[PA88]

I hope that was a typo and you meant late 2021. Even the government said themselves that they expect to have everyone who wants to be vaccinated done by end of October so there is no reason not to go back to normal beyond this point. Even if the vaccine is only 60-70% effective (and 100% effective at combatting life ending illness according to data), that’s more effective than even the flu vaccine. What is having restrictions after October 2021 going to achieve? Government have always said they need to find a balance between health and economical outcomes. Well, everyone who wants to be vaccinated getting vaccinated is as good as it’s going to get from a health perspective. They need to start putting 100% focus on the economy and letting everything else take it’s course from there.

I don't see normality within the country in 2021.

 

[chickentendies]

Waste of time me coming on here... Don't understand anything you guys are saying...

My understanding is that Eddie Dingle is Daniel Andrews #1 fanboi and I leave it at that

 

[FishingRick04]

This doesn’t really answer your question but is interesting nevertheless

thankyou for the share

 

[raptalia]

No backpackers and the locals do not want the work so SA will fly in workers from Vanuatu to pick the crops that will otherwise rot on the trees. Vanuatu has only had 1 case of COVID and the fly ins will do 14 days in quarantine so it seems a reasonable solution. I reckon once here these guys could get plenty of work around the country.

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www.adelaidenow.com.au

Of course the argument is if local workers were paid at the minimum wage growers would have more locals applying. On the other hand if that happens the consumer will have to be prepared to pay more for fruit and veg. This seems like a reasonable compromise provided the fly ins do not get exploited by labour hire companies etc.

Push to grant minimum wage rates to fruit pickers opposed by farmers

Unions want fruit pickers to be granted the minimum wage instead of according to how much produce they pick, but farmers and food producers say the change is unnecessary.

www.abc.net.au

Australia is not the only country facing a problem in getting crops picked. The UK, which uses thousands of pickers from Central Europe, and the US were both faced with labour shortages over the northern summer. In the UK Boris put money first, allowed thousands of pickers from Central Europe into the country then wondered where the sudden spike in COVID cases came from.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Queensland health authorities have spent the night scrambling for answers over how six existing cases of the UK’s highly infectious COVID strain were linked to the same quarantine hotel despite having no contact.

Queenslanders fear the state is “on the brink” of a nightmare after it was revealed that the cases had no direct contact with each other except for the fact they all stayed on the same floor of the hotel, the seventh floor.
Queensland’s Health Chief Dr Jeanette Young has already admitted that authorities are “struggling” to find out how the virus escaped and spread so quickly, while Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has warned the cluster could have implications for all Australian states and territories.
“This is a new highly infectious strain, we do not want to see this getting out in the community. This is of concern, this is of national concern, not just to Queensland, but every where else”.

Virus nightmare: QLD ‘on the brink’

Queensland health authorities have spent the night scrambling for answers over how six existing cases of the UK’s highly infectious COVID strain were linked to the same quarantine hotel despite having no contact.

www.news.com.au

 

[raptalia]

Queensland health authorities have spent the night scrambling for answers over how six existing cases of the UK’s highly infectious COVID strain were linked to the same quarantine hotel despite having no contact.

Queenslanders fear the state is “on the brink” of a nightmare after it was revealed that the cases had no direct contact with each other except for the fact they all stayed on the same floor of the hotel, the seventh floor.
Queensland’s Health Chief Dr Jeanette Young has already admitted that authorities are “struggling” to find out how the virus escaped and spread so quickly, while Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has warned the cluster could have implications for all Australian states and territories.
“This is a new highly infectious strain, we do not want to see this getting out in the community. This is of concern, this is of national concern, not just to Queensland, but every where else”.

Virus nightmare: QLD ‘on the brink’

Queensland health authorities have spent the night scrambling for answers over how six existing cases of the UK’s highly infectious COVID strain were linked to the same quarantine hotel despite having no contact.

www.news.com.au

Another day, another leak from Hotel Quarantine, this time it is Queensland.

Queensland is 'on the brink of a nightmare' yet they will still have 18,000 people at a cricket match.

 

[Footy Matt]

A blind man could have seen this coming.

Hope they’re happy putting 25 million people in the firing line because of a few Australians overseas getting homesick.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

What a dick.

 

[davesnothere]

No backpackers and the locals do not want the work so SA will fly in workers from Vanuatu to pick the crops that will otherwise rot on the trees. Vanuatu has only had 1 case of COVID and the fly ins will do 14 days in quarantine so it seems a reasonable solution. I reckon once here these guys could get plenty of work around the country.

No Cookies | The Advertiser

No Cookies

www.adelaidenow.com.au

Of course the argument is if local workers were paid at the minimum wage growers would have more locals applying. On the other hand if that happens the consumer will have to be prepared to pay more for fruit and veg. This seems like a reasonable compromise provided the fly ins do not get exploited by labour hire companies etc.

Push to grant minimum wage rates to fruit pickers opposed by farmers

Unions want fruit pickers to be granted the minimum wage instead of according to how much produce they pick, but farmers and food producers say the change is unnecessary.

www.abc.net.au

Australia is not the only country facing a problem in getting crops picked. The UK, which uses thousands of pickers from Central Europe, and the US were both faced with labour shortages over the northern summer. In the UK Boris put money first, allowed thousands of pickers from Central Europe into the country then wondered where the sudden spike in COVID cases came from.

The cost of quarantine and flights?
Thinking paying locals that 5000 per picker extra in the pocket might get a few out there doing the job?

 

[Grave Danger]

Natural selection.

Call 'em Deacon Blues

 

[Interstater]

Good article that has helped me understand these terms.

Coronavirus vaccines only need to be 50 per cent efficacious according to the WHO — why? - ABC News

Vaccines approved by regulators so far have only been found to reduce the severity of COVID-19, and it's still not known if they can prevent those inoculated from getting infected in the first place, spread coronavirus to others, or how long the protection might last.
...
"Efficacy is how well the vaccine works in a clinical trial. Effectiveness asks: 'How does it work out in the real population?'" Dr Esterman told the ABC.
...
What we do know is that the approved Western vaccines' reported efficacy rates are well beyond 50 per cent, with Pfizer's at 95 per cent, Moderna's at 94.5 per cent, and Oxford-AstraZeneca's with an average of 70.4 per cent (this vaccine had two separate efficacy rates as a result of accidental dosages).
Australia has secured 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 53.8 million of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
...
For the vaccine to work, the body reads the protein as foreign, and triggers an immune response which produces antibodies that fight the virus, and remembers it for the next time.

So whose ass do I have to kiss to get my family the 95% efficacy vaccine, knowing at best only 5 million of the 25 million of us can currently get it.

 

[Interstater]

A blind man could have seen this coming.

Hope they’re happy putting 25 million people in the firing line because of a few Australians overseas getting homesick.

What about foreign cargo coming to shore on foreign ships with foreign crews?
What about Australian cargo being delivered to foreign ships with foreign crews for the return journey?

Look, I think we should be using the military and quarantining people at military bases rather than city hotels, but I'm not sure what happens with cargo systems.

Unfortunately until we get more data on the effectiveness of vaccines we really don't know the answer, but yes if we regularly have issues with hotel quarantine then we need to either improve the processes or consider a different system. Particularly with the more virulent strains.

I'm going to an in-laws wedding this Saturday.
My head says I shouldn't but divorce would suck.
How many beers do you need to have to get your mind off covid?

 

[Eddie Dingle]

What about foreign cargo coming to shore on foreign ships with foreign crews?
What about Australian cargo being delivered to foreign ships with foreign crews for the return journey?

Look, I think we should be using the military and quarantining people at military bases rather than city hotels, but I'm not sure what happens with cargo systems.

Unfortunately until we get more data on the effectiveness of vaccines we really don't know the answer, but yes if we regularly have issues with hotel quarantine then we need to either improve the processes or consider a different system. Particularly with the more virulent strains.

I'm going to an in-laws wedding this Saturday.
My head says I shouldn't but divorce would suck.
How many beers do you need to have to get your mind off covid?

7.

Then just be a campaigner.

You’ll be in so much s**t you’ll forget all about Rona.

 

[TeeKray]

A blind man could have seen this coming.

Hope they’re happy putting 25 million people in the firing line because of a few Australians overseas getting homesick.

It's not really about that though, it's about the legalities of citizenship and nationality. We're more than happy to isolate people who are already in Australia from their families indefinitely, both interstate and overseas.

 

[Andre]

No backpackers and the locals do not want the work so SA will fly in workers from Vanuatu to pick the crops that will otherwise rot on the trees. Vanuatu has only had 1 case of COVID and the fly ins will do 14 days in quarantine so it seems a reasonable solution. I reckon once here these guys could get plenty of work around the country.

A better solution would be a Sugar tax, set at a high enough level to make the cost of Fruit and Vegetables picked by those on at least the minimum wage better value. Divert some of the many millions saved on medical costs due to heart disease, cancer etc. caused by reducing obesity due to this to a bit more in welfare payments and low income tax offsets for the increased costs and it's a win-win of reduced unemployment and a healthier population in general.

 

[glitch01]

A blind man could have seen this coming.

Hope they’re happy putting 25 million people in the firing line because of a few Australians overseas getting homesick.

Yeah, because expats are only trying to come home because they’re homesick......




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Interstater]

In some ways Japan is similar to Sweden, depending on its citizens (and others) to do the right thing.
They are now however having to tighten the rules.

Japan further tightens quarantine measures | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Starting Thursday, all people entering Japan will be asked to self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival and keep location data on their devices amid a rapid surge of infections in the country.

The government says violators could have their names and other personal information made public and foreigners could have their resident status revoked.

To tighten virus countermeasures, Japan suspended entry of all foreigners in principle from Thursday.

Japanese nationals and foreigners with resident status are allowed into the country. But they will be asked to agree to self-quarantine measures.

 

[chickentendies]

No backpackers and the locals do not want the work so SA will fly in workers from Vanuatu to pick the crops that will otherwise rot on the trees. Vanuatu has only had 1 case of COVID and the fly ins will do 14 days in quarantine so it seems a reasonable solution. I reckon once here these guys could get plenty of work around the country.

No Cookies | The Advertiser

No Cookies

www.adelaidenow.com.au

Of course the argument is if local workers were paid at the minimum wage growers would have more locals applying. On the other hand if that happens the consumer will have to be prepared to pay more for fruit and veg. This seems like a reasonable compromise provided the fly ins do not get exploited by labour hire companies etc.

Push to grant minimum wage rates to fruit pickers opposed by farmers

Unions want fruit pickers to be granted the minimum wage instead of according to how much produce they pick, but farmers and food producers say the change is unnecessary.

www.abc.net.au

Australia is not the only country facing a problem in getting crops picked. The UK, which uses thousands of pickers from Central Europe, and the US were both faced with labour shortages over the northern summer. In the UK Boris put money first, allowed thousands of pickers from Central Europe into the country then wondered where the sudden spike in COVID cases came from.

They will absolutely get exploited by the farmers and labour companies lol

 

[raptalia]

75% of the Japanese population either do not want the Olympics in 2021 or they want the Games postponed.

Olympics’ epic snub in Tokyo survey

Amid alarming new cases of infection and concerns of a possible second coronavirus wave hitting Tokyo, fewer than one in four people in Japan want the Olympics to take place in 2021.

www.news.com.au

I am not sure how they will hold a fully functional Olympics complete with crowds in July. The Japanese will need to turn things around big time in the six months they have left. They will need to get at least 70,000,000 people fully vaccinated by July to have any chance of crowds. Even then there is the question of international travel and the risk posed by fly in athletes. Unless things change Australian athletes face two months quarantine prior to the games and two weeks upon return to Australia. Athletes may also need to be isolated in the Games Village and that would be a nightmare to enforce.

This from IOC President thoms Bach had this to say...
Last week, Bach said the games could offer a “unique” opportunity to be “the first worldwide gathering after coronavirus,” which of course, hinges on the assumption that the pandemic will have been contained by July 2021.

Yeah right, the virus will be contained world wide by July.