Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Eagleboy68]

Let's ignore the health advice from the CHO and trust in the opinion of Eagleboy68.

Everyone--- to the cafes!!!

Haha sweet. I'll buy you a coffee

 

[Roby]

The modelling I saw had thousands dead and peak demand for 5,000 ICU beds as the best case scenario with strong social distancing/lockdown like we did.
I think the modelling for doing nothing was something like 100k+ deaths.
The modelling was wrong, very wrong, this will all come out in the wash.

The problem with modelling is that it is full of assumptions and opinions, get one of these a bit wrong and the whole thing is blown away.
I suspect one problem with some of the modelling done was that it assumed the initial cases were out there spreading it. We had a big run up in cases the week or so before lockdown restrictions started coming in, but the majority of these (along with the next couple of weeks) weren't out in public spreading it, they were simply people returning from overseas and going into 14 day isolation which had began earlier on March 15. Anyway it certainly will be interesting reading at the end of all this once it is analysed.

If we had taken Sweden's approach and continued with it, we would have anywhere between 15,000 or 25,000 deaths by now. And that's with no decline as of yet.

I know hits hard for some people to understand exponential growth but that is the reality.

If I was to start with a grain of rice on the first square of a chess board and double it on each subsequent share, I would need 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square.

 

[tige19]

Lol I didn't ask for your advice about my life.

Since when is refusing unsolicited advice abuse?

Bahaha, Roby speaking as if it is a privilege for you to receive "life" advice from him, wowee the delusion is legit.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Let's ignore the health advice from the CHO and trust in the opinion of Eagleboy68.

Everyone--- to the cafes!!!

Stay home. Problem solved. If everyone on these boards who wants everyone to stay home actually stayed home then social distancing would be no issue and the rest of us could get on with life.

There's a very simple way for both of us to manage our way through this and this to follow our own good senses. Your's are to say locked up in the dark. Do it. Mine are to go out and about, social distancing as is recommended, and getting on with things. Surprisingly, both of our goals can be achieved and shock, horror, are both completely acceptable to health authorities.

Just make sure to drink extra milk as you're likely to get vitamin D deficient.

 

[Eagleboy68]

Bahaha, Roby speaking as if it is a privilege for you to receive "life" advice from him, wowee the delusion is legit.

Haha ikr.
I'm such a douche bag for not receiving it...

 

[Roby]

We don't have vaccines for the current flu season.
We have vaccines based on previous strains but they mutate constantly.

The death rate isn't as high or as widespread through the age groups as they were fearing.

The lockdowns are now unnecessary.

It's hilarious to think a cafe wasn't safe on Saturday to open for seating but it is today.

First of all WE DO have vaccines for the current flu season. Regardless of mutations they are still effective, certainly more than not taking one.

If the virus is still around the lockdowns aren't not unnecessary. Do you understand what unnecessary means?


It's not about what's safe on Tuesday or Saturday. It's about a slow systematic easing of restrictions to allow the delayed affects Covid-19 to show whether the plan put in place for reopening is correct to keep the R0 number low. Or is that too difficult to understand?

 

[Eagleboy68]

If we had taken Sweden's approach and continued with it, we would have anywhere between 15,000 or 25,000 deaths by now. And that's with no decline as of yet.

I know hits hard for some people to understand exponential growth but that is the reality.

If I was to start with a grain of rice on the first square of a chess board and double it on each subsequent share, I would need 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square.

According to you.

Our demographic is completely different.

Please tell me what time machine you have that you explored all the possible permutations or should we call you doctor Strange?

 

[Senor M]

Stay home. Problem solved. If everyone on these boards who wants everyone to stay home actually stayed home then social distancing would be no issue and the rest of us could get on with life.

There's a very simple way for both of us to manage our way through this and this to follow our own good senses. Your's are to say locked up in the dark. Do it. Mine are to go out and about, social distancing as is recommended, and getting on with things. Surprisingly, both of our goals can be achieved and shock, horror, are both completely acceptable to health authorities.

Just make sure to drink extra milk as you're likely to get vitamin D deficient.

I'm not questioning your decision to go about your day (I'm doing exactly the same), if you re-read my post (and previous posts) I'm suggesting and asking for people to continue to listen to the advice of Health authorities rather than making up their theories about what is acceptable-- or even worse, listening to the advice of Elon Musk.

 

[Carl Spackler]

If we had taken Sweden's approach and continued with it, we would have anywhere between 15,000 or 25,000 deaths by now. And that's with no decline as of yet.

I know hits hard for some people to understand exponential growth but that is the reality.

If I was to start with a grain of rice on the first square of a chess board and double it on each subsequent share, I would need 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square.

Prove it. it will be difficult to prove as it looks entirely fantastical and not in any way consistent with simple maths.

Sweden has a population of 10m to Australia's 25m (round up for simple maths). Sweden has 3700 deaths. 3700 * 2.5 = 9,250. So your argument is that in Australian will be 2x or almost 3x as deadly as Sweden were we to follow the social distancing guidelines we now have in place from the begging? Has Daniel Andrews just condemned us to dead in the streets? The lunatic.

Making your proof more difficult is that fact that Australia has only 99 fatalities from the bug so far. Now it could be that Australia following the same guidelines as everywhere else in the world somehow magically did them better. Or it could be... the fact that Australia really isn't affected as dramatically by viral infections as the cold northern hemisphere. How could we possibly test that thesis? South Africa, with large populations of underprivileged living in squalor, has only 264 deaths. Argentina? 373. I mean, it's almost a miracle!

But yes, let's instead unplug our critical thinking capabilities and instead pretend that if we followed the exact same social distancing guidelines that are now in force that we would have 25000 dead people in the last 7 weeks instead of 100.


The lock-them-up crowd has lost all perspective and capacity for reason. The Enlightenment is dead.

 

[Roby]

Not much if you ask me.

The same Ayn Rand that championed individual rights overly regulated and committing Marxist governments says that disease spread is the exception to this rule?

 

[owen87]

It's hilarious to think a cafe wasn't safe on Saturday to open for seating but it is today.

The same logic applies to birthdays, it's safe to drive at <17 or 18 depending on the state> but it's not safe to drive one day prior. Same with voting. Or drinking. Same with speed-limits.

You have to draw an arbitrary line somewhere, at some point. The risk obviously doesn't decline markedly from Sunday to Monday, but over time the data has shown our risks of having large scale community transmission is extremely unlikely, so a gradual lessening of restrictions will be ongoing.

This black and white idea you have that either everything is deadly and should be closed, or everything open, is nonsense.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I'm not questioning your decision to go about your day (I'm doing exactly the same), if you re-read my post (and previous posts) I'm suggesting and asking for people to continue to listen to the advice of Health authorities rather than making up their theories about what is acceptable-- or even worse, listening to the advice of Elon Musk.

I agree. South Australia should abandon that stupid, expensive, doomed-to-fail giant battery park idea.

 

[owen87]

South Africa, with large populations of underprivileged living in squalor, has only 264 deaths.

critical thinking

Maybe try applying some of the latter to the former.

 

[Eagleboy68]

The same logic applies to birthdays, it's safe to drive at <17 or 18 depending on the state> but it's not safe to drive one day prior. Same with voting. Or drinking. Same with speed-limits.

You have to draw an arbitrary line somewhere, at some point. The risk obviously doesn't decline markedly from Sunday to Monday, but over time the data has shown our risks of having large scale community transmission is extremely unlikely, so a gradual lessening of restrictions will be ongoing.

This black and white idea you have that either everything is deadly and should be closed, or everything open, is nonsense.

I just found it strange that NSW lifted restrictions to the same areas on Friday and wa waited until today when wa has less cases and zero cases for almost weeks.

 

[Roby]

Lol I didn't ask for your advice about my life.

Since when is refusing unsolicited advice abuse?

Well, you're kind of getting all bothered and telling other people how to live by suggesting we should remove all restrictions immediately.

I didn't say you are abusing me I was responding to your remark to a previous poster and I called you out on it. Here it is:

Trying to assist someone through their rage and not responding to their rage is mockery or ridicule?

 

[Carl Spackler]

Maybe try applying some of the latter to the former.

Instruct us. Give it a go. See if you can.

 

[Eagleboy68]

First of all WE DO have vaccines for the current flu season. Regardless of mutations they are still effective, certainly more than not taking one.

Wrong.

Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC

Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC

www.cdc.gov

"Recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

"During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that little or no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed."

 

[Roby]

Just make sure to drink extra milk as you're likely to get vitamin D deficient.

 

[owen87]

I just found it strange that NSW lifted restrictions to the same areas on Friday and wa waited until today when wa has less cases and zero cases for almost weeks.

It's almost like states are controlled by different people making different decisions.

Instruct us. Give it a go. See if you can.

You really think we'll be getting accurate data from places like Soweto? It's pretty clear that deaths have risen to above the figures reported by many countries in places like Italy, Spain, France, the US and the UK, who will all have significantly more resources to test and confirm than South Africa.

Australia's death figure is likely close to 100% accurate, whilst places like India, Bangladesh and South Africa have significant numbers living in poverty who can't even access modern healthcare let alone provide accurate death figures. You're comparing Apples and Potatoes.

 

[owen87]

Wrong.

Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC

Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC

www.cdc.gov

"Recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

"During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that little or no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed."

I'm not sure how this disproves what Roby says.... it literally says where they correctly select the predominant flu mutations that will circulate it's effective. Human error is why it isn't.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Really? So you're turning in your honorary "I know the science!" card?

 

[Roby]

Prove it. it will be difficult to prove as it looks entirely fantastical and not in any way consistent with simple maths.

Sweden has a population of 10m to Australia's 25m (round up for simple maths). Sweden has 3700 deaths. 3700 * 2.5 = 9,250. So your argument is that in Australian will be 2x or almost 3x as deadly as Sweden were we to follow the social distancing guidelines we now have in place from the begging? Has Daniel Andrews just condemned us to dead in the streets? The lunatic.

Making your proof more difficult is that fact that Australia has only 99 fatalities from the bug so far. Now it could be that Australia following the same guidelines as everywhere else in the world somehow magically did them better. Or it could be... the fact that Australia really isn't affected as dramatically by viral infections as the cold northern hemisphere. How could we possibly test that thesis? South Africa, with large populations of underprivileged living in squalor, has only 264 deaths. Argentina? 373. I mean, it's almost a miracle!

But yes, let's instead unplug our critical thinking capabilities and instead pretend that if we followed the exact same social distancing guidelines that are now in force that we would have 25000 dead people in the last 7 weeks instead of 100.


The lock-them-up crowd has lost all perspective and capacity for reason. The Enlightenment is dead.

Do you still want to me answer? What's the point if I've lost ALL CAPACITY to reason?

Which makes me wonder post such a long rant in the first place if that's your proviso?

 

[Carl Spackler]

I'm not sure how this disproves what Roby says.... it literally says where they correctly select the predominant flu mutations that will circulate it's effective. Human error is why it isn't.

He says no such thing! He literally says "WE DO have vaccines for the current flu season. Regardless of mutations they are still effective, certainly more than not taking one." That statement is directly addressed and refuted by the quote from the CDC. Weren't you the guy talking about the need to apply critical thinking skills? Step one, reading comprehension. Then you can move onto critical thinking.

 

[Eagleboy68]

I'm not sure how this disproves what Roby says.... it literally says where they correctly select the predominant flu mutations that will circulate it's effective. Human error is why it isn't.

You're wrong as well.

He said " "WE DO have vaccines for the current flu season. Regardless of mutations they are still effective"

CDC said
"During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that little or no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed."

 

[Carl Spackler]

Do you still want to me answer? What's the point?

Of course I want you to answer. Give it a go. First you try to dismiss me with a Chris Rock gif and now you pretend like its' all too hard to talk to me. You haven't even tried yet. Surely you aren't going to give up before you even start.