Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

[Rowan18]

We need to keep our expectations realistic though. This ship shows that eliminating the virus is not realistic, which our governments appeared to agree with, as their initial goal with lock-down was to flatten the curve and give enough time for the hospital system to be prepared. In the last few weeks the messaging around this has become muddled, as political grandstanding has returned.

We are well prepared now and our strategy for stages of easing the lockdown seems to be going well. It is important that we dont change the goalposts, at some stage in the next month or so, we should start allowing more domestic travel and monitor the consequences, with the aim of opening the border. A similar process should be carried out with international borders, starting with things like hubs with other low infection countries.

 

[Forward Press]

The big three states have a larger population and more international arrivals, I would be concerned if we weren't in a better position virus wise.

Economically? Maybe our mines will save us again while small business suffers. Closing off to the rest of the nation is incredibly damaging for every day it continues.

The big three states on a per capita basis had far far more active cases - well, it might have changed with these new ones but NSW and Victoria also had known community transmission too.

Economically we are doing fairly well, and definitely compared to most other places. I think people keep thinking mistakenly that trade is somehow affected - it's not. The only thing we don't get are the people - and this affects mainly tourism and hospitality. We still get electronics from China, bananas from Queensland etc.

 

[kaiserchief13]

We need to keep our expectations realistic though. This ship shows that eliminating the virus is not realistic, which our governments appeared to agree with, as their initial goal with lock-down was to flatten the curve and give enough time for the hospital system to be prepared. In the last few weeks the messaging around this has become muddled, as political grandstanding has returned.

We are well prepared now and our strategy for stages of easing the lockdown seems to be going well. It is important that we dont change the goalposts, at some stage in the next month or so, we should start allowing more domestic travel and monitor the consequences, with the aim of opening the border. A similar process should be carried out with international borders, starting with things like hubs with other low infection countries.

Yes agreed, but the hard thing is the incubation period is 2 weeks, would be much easier if you either had it or didn't have it (and couldn't develop it over time) as they could test on departure and if positive then declined.

 

[Dazzler9]

It equates because unless you lock yourself in a cave and don't interact with the outside world you have to manage the virus.

Exactly. You have to manage the virus. And that is what we are doing. By shutting down non-essential travel and monitoring all arrivals.

 

[Ok Boomer]

The big three states on a per capita basis had far far more active cases - well, it might have changed with these new ones but NSW and Victoria also had known community transmission too.

Economically we are doing fairly well, and definitely compared to most other places. I think people keep thinking mistakenly that trade is somehow affected - it's not. The only thing we don't get are the people - and this affects mainly tourism and hospitality. We still get electronics from China, bananas from Queensland etc.

Trade is great at a macro level. Individuals and small businesses rely on movement of people. We implemented a shutdown to care for and protect people, that worked and now people are suffering because some of these measures are lasting too long.

We have measures like the ones being used at Fremantle Port right now to deal with potential spikes. Punitive measures are not required so much now.

 

[Dazzler9]

... how? Borders are closed, yet the virus is still coming in and will continue to do so until or unless the virus is eliminated globally?

Because if there were no closures and controls in place, we would begin to be inundated again. As the arrival of this latest ship has shown.

 

[ziad]

We need to keep our expectations realistic though. This ship shows that eliminating the virus is not realistic, which our governments appeared to agree with, as their initial goal with lock-down was to flatten the curve and give enough time for the hospital system to be prepared. In the last few weeks the messaging around this has become muddled, as political grandstanding has returned.

We are well prepared now and our strategy for stages of easing the lockdown seems to be going well. It is important that we dont change the goalposts, at some stage in the next month or so, we should start allowing more domestic travel and monitor the consequences, with the aim of opening the border. A similar process should be carried out with international borders, starting with things like hubs with other low infection countries.

Sounds like a plan.
Even NSW has only ahd approx 2 community transmission in the last 4-5 days. There are 3000 quatentined returnees in Sydney and a few prove to have the virus but this is why they are quarantined. It is well underecontrol but to watch the TV news you would think it is NY. This scared those that sleep with the lights on.

Nationally we have suposedly 5 in ICU with ventilators - having ramped up our stocks to 7 500.

Six in a nothing number for new cases in a day. It just gets managed.
And it will have to be managed for a year or two as a minimum.

 

[Forward Press]

Trade is great at a macro level. Individuals and small businesses rely on movement of people. We implemented a shutdown to care for and protect people, that worked and now people are suffering because some of these measures are lasting too long.

We have measures like the ones being used at Fremantle Port right now to deal with potential spikes. Punitive measures are not required so much now.

People can still move within Australia, it's merely subject to quarantine. Soon enough WA and the other hard border states will allow freer movement as cases dwindle. NT has already moved to self isolation instead of government enforced quarantine. It will be gradual but if the growth rate remains low then the borders will slowly reopen. No arguments there.

The industries dependent on people moving without the limitations of quarantine - like tourism and hospitality - are the ones crippled. And they might not recover for years. But I'd argue it's a price you have to pay - a 'second wave' would just shut down everything again and leave us even more economically devastated, across all industries and not just tourism and hospitality.

 

[ziad]

People can still move within Australia, it's merely subject to quarantine. Soon enough WA and the other hard border states will allow freer movement as cases dwindle. NT has already moved to self isolation instead of government enforced quarantine. It will be gradual but if the growth rate remains low then the borders will slowly reopen. No arguments there.

The industries dependent on people moving without the limitations of quarantine - like tourism and hospitality - are the ones crippled. And they might not recover for years. But I'd argue it's a price you have to pay - a 'second wave' would just shut down everything again and leave us even more economically devastated, across all industries and not just tourism and hospitality.

It hits home when you plot the curve of health maintenance V economic cost - the ones that are crippled and see that they crossed weeks ago. This is no just self flagellation for no return.

You may as well have people with red flags still walking in front of cars to reduce traffic accidents. (And sleep with the lights on)

 

[Forward Press]

It hits home when you plot the curve of health maintenance V economic cost - the ones that are crippled and see that they crossed weeks ago. This is no just self flagellation for no return.

You may as well have people with red flags still walking in front of cars to reduce traffic accidents. (And sleep with the lights on)

Which is why restrictions are being relaxed. Compare what we can do now compare to a month ago.

The bigger - and possibly fatal, economically - risk is throwing it all open at once. The red flag in front of cars example is patently illogical hyperbole as cars are essential for mass and rapid movement of people and goods - is a gym essential for society to function?

I swear you cannot satisfy everyone.

 

[larrikin]

I get the anger but its the new world we live in. The ship was invited here to take our sheep to market. The mariners who have the virus should be looked after - as they are without presenting a risk to others. This is why the border closures are dumb - we all have to now manage life knowing that the virus exists - it can not be eradicated.

Cheer up - Buddy is out for most of the season. I actulally feel sorry for him.

Surely these cases are all an argument for border control. Without it those 13 people from the last 2 days could've been walking the streets. The borders aren't actually closed - It's a misnomer. There are just strict quarantine requirements.

 

[ziad]

Which is why restrictions are being relaxed. Compare what we can do now compare to a month ago.

The bigger - and possibly fatal, economically - risk is throwing it all open at once. The red flag in front of cars example is patently illogical hyperbole as cars are essential for mass and rapid movement of people and goods - is a gym essential for society to function?

I swear you cannot satisfy everyone.

Gym is essential, I cycle, I swear you cannot satisfy everyone.

 

[Bacchus]

How is it the Health dept's fault? The email from the federal Ag dept explicitly stated there was no concern for covid 19 on the vessel and apart from that the health dept have no say on which ships can berth.
View attachment 882974

I accept that 'no covid on board' on board could throw them off the scent but surely they have to be smarter than that in these covid days. Elevated temperature is one of the main symptoms, if someone let that through that was really dumb.

 

[Seadog]

I accept that 'no covid on board' on board could throw them off the scent but surely they have to be smarter than that in these covid days. Elevated temperature is one of the main symptoms, if someone let that through that was really dumb.

The ship had permission to berth from the federal authorities. From that point the health department did their job properly, no one was allowed to leave the ship and the ill people were tested.
What is it you think they should have done?

 

[RookiePick]

State Government: follows stated pathway to easing of restrictions and management of the virus.

Gym Bros:

 

[Doashuey]

The ship had permission to berth from the federal authorities. From that point the health department did their job properly, no one was allowed to leave the ship and the ill people were tested.
What is it you think they should have done?

Simple, they should have alerted Fremantle Port Authority that there were crew with elevated temperatures. WA health have a duty to prevent possibly infected crew from coming ashore ( which is currently.mandatory anyway) as well as ensuring people bordding the vessel are aware of the risks.

 

[Seadog]

Simple, they should have alerted Fremantle Port Authority that there were crew with elevated temperatures. WA health have a duty to prevent possibly infected crew from coming ashore ( which is currently.mandatory anyway) as well as ensuring people bordding the vessel are aware of the risks.

Pretty sure that is what happened. No one came ashore and everyone who boarded wore the appropriate ppe.

 

[Doashuey]

Pretty sure that is what happened. No one came ashore and everyone who boarded wore the appropriate ppe.

No it didn't.
2 things to be aware of that is being used as some form of damage control by various parties:
1. No crew are allowed ashore off any vessel in the country for shore leave- it is not something that was implemented for this vessel due to its risk factor.
2. Any visitors aboard vessels are required to wear PPE of gloves, mask, glasses. Again, not precaution for this vessel alone.

From all available information, Freo Ports were only alerted after crew members were removed from the vessel, I understand, by the ambos themselves.
The whole PPE thing is a bit of a farce. Anyone boarding a ship at the moment is required to wear a mask, glasses/goggles and gloves to minimise risk of transmission. The masks most people have access to are to prevent transmission from them to others and not vice versa. Crew are also expected to wear masks which lessens the chance of visitors being exposed. Just because they had PPE, doesnt mean they were alerted.
If Fremantle Ports were made aware of the situation, they would not have sent someone aboard. As it is, the staff who boarded are now required to self isolate for 2 weeks, as well as others they came into contact with. This fact alone confirms that there is no way they were made aware of a potential issue or they would not have boarded and most likely would have kept the vessel at anchorage until an all clear was given.

 

[Seadog]

Phase 3 coming in hot at 11.59pm Friday, June 5.

100 gatherings of peeps
300 inside big venues with lots of space
All food businesses can open for seated meals
Beauty therapy
Saunas
Cinemas
Full contact sport and training
Playgrounds
Gyms (including all equipment)

 

[Seadog]

No it didn't.
From all available information, Freo Ports were only alerted after crew members were removed from the vessel, I understand, by the ambos themselves.
The whole PPE thing is a bit of a farce. Anyone boarding a ship at the moment is required to wear a mask, glasses/goggles and gloves to minimise risk of transmission. The masks most people have access to are to prevent transmission from them to others and not vice versa. Crew are also expected to wear masks which lessens the chance of visitors being exposed. Just because they had PPE, doesnt mean they were alerted.
If Fremantle Ports were made aware of the situation, they would not have sent someone aboard. As it is, the staff who boarded are now required to self isolate for 2 weeks, as well as others they came into contact with. This fact alone confirms that there is no way they were made aware of a potential issue or they would not have boarded and most likely would have kept the vessel at anchorage until an all clear was given.

I'll stand corrected, I hadn't heard that.

 

[larrikin]

No it didn't.
2 things to be aware of that is being used as some form of damage control by various parties:
1. No crew are allowed ashore off any vessel in the country for shore leave- it is not something that was implemented for this vessel due to its risk factor.
2. Any visitors aboard vessels are required to wear PPE of gloves, mask, glasses. Again, not precaution for this vessel alone.

From all available information, Freo Ports were only alerted after crew members were removed from the vessel, I understand, by the ambos themselves.
The whole PPE thing is a bit of a farce. Anyone boarding a ship at the moment is required to wear a mask, glasses/goggles and gloves to minimise risk of transmission. The masks most people have access to are to prevent transmission from them to others and not vice versa. Crew are also expected to wear masks which lessens the chance of visitors being exposed. Just because they had PPE, doesnt mean they were alerted.
If Fremantle Ports were made aware of the situation, they would not have sent someone aboard. As it is, the staff who boarded are now required to self isolate for 2 weeks, as well as others they came into contact with. This fact alone confirms that there is no way they were made aware of a potential issue or they would not have boarded and most likely would have kept the vessel at anchorage until an all clear was given.

Not disregarding your point re-notification, but it is good that those standard protocols are in place and look to have worked.

 

[Doashuey]

Not disregarding your point re-notification, but it is good that those standard protocols are in place and look to have worked.

Oh for sure, I spend a few hours in the engine rooms and offices of these ships working fairly closely with the crew each visit and wouldnt do it without. We implemented these precautions independently but it is good that it is enforced through the government and the ships are also required to do it. Any ship landing needs to have been 14 days since last port, take regular temp checks and report any abnormalities during pre-arrival documentation. They are pretty safe but obviously the reporting this time for whatever reason, didn't make it to the people it needed to and is a deficiency in the system. That said, I would not expect it will be repeated.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Phase 3 coming in hot at 11.59pm Friday, June 5.

Gyms (including all equipment)

 

[Rowan18]

Phase 3 coming in hot at 11.59pm Friday, June 5.

100 gatherings of peeps
300 inside big venues with lots of space
All food businesses can open for seated meals
Beauty therapy
Saunas
Cinemas
Full contact sport and training
Playgrounds
Gyms (including all equipment)

Who else will be watching our rnd2 game at the Camfield?

 

[Chris_6678]

Could this mean community sport more of a possibility?