Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

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EagleEgo said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned:

amp.watoday.com.au

AFL boss backs Perth to host grand final if Melbourne in lockdown

AFL boss Gil McLachlan revealed on Friday the league would put the grand final at the MCG on the last Saturday in September up for sale and has endorsed Perth as a worthy host.
amp.watoday.com.au amp.watoday.com.au
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That's just the AFL posturing to make sure that the Victorian government allows crowds. No way they let it leave Melbourne unless they had another lockdown like this one, which I think is highly unlikely given increased vaccination rates etc
 

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Hangover Noir said:
Did you watch/listen to the previous one with Dr Pierre Kory? Very thought provoking - would recommend, and no annoying interruptions.
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I did. Youtube removed it today as I assume they will this one. Apparently up on bit chute if anyone wants to track it down.
 
I honestly thought that an anti-vaxer had infiltrated the vaccination centre after my jab. All I felt her do was lift up my sleeve a little and nothing else. I figured she was working double shifts trying to con as many people as possible that they had been jabbed!

I kept pressing my arm all the way home looking for a bruise to prove she’d done anything, but no, nothing.

A few hours later though. Wowee. I could not sleep on that side.

Jenny, my vaccination angel, I take it all back.
 
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Moose1414 said:
I know we' re all very pro vaccine woo vaccine! in this space, but for anyone curious to do a really deep dive into how these vaccines work and what the risk profile of taking said vaccines as compared to say the seasonal flue vaccine, I would highly recommend sitting through this recent [past 24 hours] interview with the inventor of mRNA vaccines,

TLDR is that fatal reaction is about 1000x that of seasonal flue vaccine, for various reasons but primarily that the spike protein is now understood to be having trouble sticking in the tissue [locally] where the jab is administered and instead tends to go wandering. Judgement call for anyone to weigh the risks for themselves, not looking to change any minds or have a debate because none of us are experts here. But, very one sided debate being presented in this thread so maybe some of you would be interested in what the professionals in this space are worried about/not worried about, talking about/not talking about etc etc. Cheers and good luck fellow travellers
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I watched most of this (up to about 2h:15).

I've followed Bret for a while and thought he had gone off the deep end with the lab-leak and Ivermectin theories. I haven't followed the Ivermectin discussion but I believe now that the lab-leak theory is totally plausible. Would recommend these articles if interested (they're all long and the third one is very technical).

www.vanityfair.com

The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Throughout 2020, the notion that the novel coronavirus leaked from a lab was off-limits. Those who dared to push for transparency say toxic politics and hidden agendas kept us in the dark.
www.vanityfair.com www.vanityfair.com


A lot of the discussion in the interview is about Ivermectin and other treatments and their point seems to be that there are safer/less risky alternatives to the vaccines rather than that the vaccines are too unsafe to use. Both of the guests are actually vaccinated with Moderna.

This graph which shows the number of reported deaths attributed to vaccines in the USA was the most interesting and alarming thing. I don't know how accurate/reliable it is (VAERS is a US government run system). It's a lot of deaths but consider the number of vaccines given and number of Covid deaths in that country.
1623510515644.png
 
lusheslewis said:
I watched most of this (up to about 2h:15).

I've followed Bret for a while and thought he had gone off the deep end with the lab-leak and Ivermectin theories. I haven't followed the Ivermectin discussion but I believe now that the lab-leak theory is totally plausible. Would recommend these articles if interested (they're all long and the third one is very technical).

www.vanityfair.com

The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Throughout 2020, the notion that the novel coronavirus leaked from a lab was off-limits. Those who dared to push for transparency say toxic politics and hidden agendas kept us in the dark.
www.vanityfair.com www.vanityfair.com


A lot of the discussion in the interview is about Ivermectin and other treatments and their point seems to be that there are safer/less risky alternatives to the vaccines rather than that the vaccines are too unsafe to use. Both of the guests are actually vaccinated with Moderna.

This graph which shows the number of reported deaths attributed to vaccines in the USA was the most interesting and alarming thing. I don't know how accurate/reliable it is (VAERS is a US government run system). It's a lot of deaths but consider the number of vaccines given and number of Covid deaths in that country.
View attachment 1153768
Click to expand...


Yeah lab leak is legit [with some caveats] have been watching this channel since before the pandemic due to being autistically into evolutionary biology and was among seemingly a bunch of people who emailed Bret back in Jan/Feb last year to let him know he probably needed to dismiss any wet market origin story given it was already pretty well known even then that the pandemic had started way earlier than initially reported. Good example I remember from the time was Liz Cabbage talking about having gotten something basically identical to covid and being hospitalised for it in late 2019 while playing basketball in China. There were many many streams in those early days talking about evolutionary lore with regard to virus's and the early genomic data on covid that made animal to human jump pretty comical to suggest and this question was basically settled a year ago. Virus behaves in a way that overwhelmingly suggested to experts like Bret that it came from a lab environment, its aversion to uv and inability to spread outdoors being among the early tells. Ivermectim will probably start getting talked about in the media in 6-12 months from now and probably not long after that [when gen 2 versions of the vaccine are ready that work better] they might do some stories explaining spike protein misbehaving in the current vaccines.

*Only problem with lab leak that I can see is that there have been a couple of studies done where they look at blood samples [Italy] or sewage samples [spain] taken out of cold storage and tested for covid which have returned genetic matches. These are data points that are just ignored because they don't fit any pattern but suggest either virus origin was early 2019 and not of Chinese origin, or some kind of contamination of the samples has taken place or a false positive has occurred. My personal feeling is that its [Wuhan lab leak] a bit too neat, I'd be inclined to wonder whether we'll every know at this point how exactly it escaped or why.

Something that I find interesting that was talked about a lot in the early days of covid but mysteriously was never done, is widespread antibody testing. A place like WA where essentially we have had no exposure to covid it would be interesting to know what kind of antibody presence there is among the population here. We are a pretty strange case here where there has been plenty of opportunity for the virus to have community spread and we have been lucky quite a few times for that not to eventuate. Is that luck or some other factor? Is that vitamin d? Having a culture that is already very socially distanced? Is it possible that we have somehow acquired antibodies ahead of time? Its just not been looked into. If covid was around from early 2019 as a few studies have indicated, its entirely possible some places in the world might of gone through covid waves pre-pandemic. And as someone who have never had the flue ever, I got sick in May 2019 here in Perth with something flu like that at on its worse day almost made me visit the emergency room. Caught that flu off some idiot who came sick to a family event and was telling everyone he'd just had the most brutal flue of his life. My grandmother caught it the same day I did and died on the day my own flu peaked. My sister caught it from me and also later told me she considered going to the ER a few days in. I've spoken to quite a few people actually who had similar experiences with he flu season here in 2019. Always just assume antibody tests would be done by authorities as the pandemic progressed but it just never happened.
 
Since a few people have bought up Ivermectin, if anyone is interested here's a shortish [24 mins] breakdown by a channel I've also been following since Jan 2020 in which a retired MD and University Lecturer does direct to camera breakdowns of the covid related research papers as they happen. I would doubt there has been a single study or report on covid released in the past 18 months that he has not broken down. Extremely excellent man and former researcher himself I believe.

TLDR, it works. WA Gov could completely avoid any further escapes from hotel quarantine by adopting this dirt cheap therapeutic. Wont happen but makes for interesting viewing.
 
Moose1414 said:
Since a few people have bought up Ivermectin, if anyone is interested here's a shortish [24 mins] breakdown by a channel I've also been following since Jan 2020 in which a retired MD and University Lecturer does direct to camera breakdowns of the covid related research papers as they happen. I would doubt there has been a single study or report on covid released in the past 18 months that he has not broken down. Extremely excellent man and former researcher himself I believe.

TLDR, it works. WA Gov could completely avoid any further escapes from hotel quarantine by adopting this dirt cheap therapeutic. Wont happen but makes for interesting viewing.
Click to expand...


Similar vein to the vid above, interview from a few months back with the researcher who I believe has now completed randomised trials of the ivermectin that are about the be published, essentially confirming its efficacy beyond any doubt with regard to treatment of covid. This should be a hugely significant moment in the pandemic, we'll see what happens.



Edit: TLDR,

ivermectin: works better than a vaccine for covid. 1/3 of worlds population given this drug in past 40 years. 16 deaths.
 
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ukurrie said:
I honestly thought that an anti-vaxer had infiltrated the vaccination centre after my jab. All I felt her do was lift up my sleeve a little and nothing else. I figured she was working double shifts trying to con as many people as possible that they had been jabbed!

I kept pressing my arm all the way home looking for a bruise to prove she’d done anything, but no, nothing.

A few hours later though. Wowee. I could not sleep on that side.

Jenny, my vaccination angel, I take it all back.
Click to expand...
Punching your arm repeatedly all the way home probably didn't help
 

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On the Wuhan lab leak theory.The USA would like to think of itself as a victim of outside forces, activities, conspiracy rather than its own incompetence imo.But also the Chinese have not been as cooperative and transparent with regards to finding the virus origin as international investigators would like.
The covid-19 virus is a natural virus not a synthetic lab produced virus.That is not disputed .The question is did the virus arrive in Wuhan via an individual out in the countryside who was bitten or scratched or handled an infected bat and took the virus to Wuhan as part of his routine working duties where it found an environment and a dense human population suitable for its spread( 99%likely imo) or was the virus captured in the wild and grown on host cells in a Wuhan lab where workers were contaminated by the virus and it then subsequently spread to the cities population from there (1% chance imo). But as it is there is little trust or cooperation between China and the USA or independant investigators so at this time it seems the covid-19 origin may never be known.
 
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Asapartyhat said:
On the Wuhan lab leak theory.The USA would like to think of itself as a victim of outside forces, activities, conspiracy rather than its own incompetence imo.But also the Chinese have not been as cooperative and transparent with regards to finding the virus origin as international investigators would like.
The covid-19 virus is a natural virus not a synthetic lab produced virus.That is not disputed .The question is did the virus arrive in Wuhan via an individual out in the countryside who was bitten or scratched or handled an infected bat and took the virus to Wuhan as part of his routine working duties where it found an environment and a dense human population suitable for its spread( 99%likely imo) or was the virus captured in the wild and grown on host cells in a Wuhan lab where workers were contaminated by the virus and it then subsequently spread to the cities population from there (1% chance imo). But as it is there is little trust or cooperation between China and the USA or independant investigators so at this time it seems the covid-19 origin may never be known.
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I don't think anyone is suggesting the virus is synthetic when they speak about lab leak. There may have been some wild speculation in the early days that the virus was synthetically constructed via gene splicing using things like HIV and other virus's but that is not a part of the lab leak hypothesis.

The contention with lab leak is that a naturally occurring coronavirus, collected from horseshoe bats in a province in china about 300km from Wuhan by that lab, was subject to gain of function research in the lab and subsequently infected a lab worker who then transmitted it to the wider community. This was a hypothesis arrived at by experts in the field looking at the way the virus behaved in the environment once it escaped and doesn't really need to be confirmed one way or another by an investigation by the USA or an admission by China. What seems to be confirmed is that way before there was a cluster at the wet market in Wuhan, 3 or so of the workers at the lab were admitted to hospital with a civid like illness and in one case, the wife of one of those guys died from that illness. Thats a pretty big hint right there.

To explain what gain of function sequencing is, it is not a synthetic process involving gene splicing or anything like that. It is simply training the virus in a lab environment to become more successful at making jumps between species and learning how to infect different tissues. SO they will take the wild sample and infect say ferrets with it over and over again and put the ferrets in with other animals or they will use human cell cultures [often cancer cells] and try and infect them, basically playing around with the forward evolution of the virus by selecting mutations over and over again that specialise in doing the thing they are training it to do. What will happen is the virus evolves to fit the conditions of its lab environment and picks up behaviours it would not have the opportunity to pick up in the wild. Lab viruses will usually begin through this process to exhibit some tells indicating they have been through this "gain of function" research. One if the tells with corona is that right out of the gate it was very good at compromising all manner of human systems, lungs, heart, brain, liver, whatever. Very unusual for a virus to do this, most coronaviruses are respiratory diseases and certainly any that made a natural jump would be this way for a long time and likely never have reason to change, corona-19 is unique though in the way it has behaved. Another thing that sets it aside is it's achilles heal seems to be that it is extremely vulnerable to UV light, which is something wild viruses are not. This is an artefact of the lab environment [exclusively an indoor environment] in which it does not encounter UV light so as it is sequenced through multiple generations and tough to favour specific strategies and characteristics it essentially trades away any natural resistance it has to UV in favour of putting its energy into those other things. This pretty much explains why unexpectedly the virus does not transmit outdoors nearly at all, and why it is quite useless at transmission via surfaces.

There emerging consensus is more 99% that its origin was gain of function research in a lab, and 1% or less zoonotic jump [animal to human in wild]. The experts can tell. The experts have been fighting this for a year and its now pretty much accepted as the best theory, this will only continue to be the case.
 
Moose1414 said:
I don't think anyone is suggesting the virus is synthetic when they speak about lab leak. There may have been some wild speculation in the early days that the virus was synthetically constructed via gene splicing using things like HIV and other virus's but that is not a part of the lab leak hypothesis.

The contention with lab leak is that a naturally occurring coronavirus, collected from horseshoe bats in a province in china about 300km from Wuhan by that lab, was subject to gain of function research in the lab and subsequently infected a lab worker who then transmitted it to the wider community. This was a hypothesis arrived at by experts in the field looking at the way the virus behaved in the environment once it escaped and doesn't really need to be confirmed one way or another by an investigation by the USA or an admission by China. What seems to be confirmed is that way before there was a cluster at the wet market in Wuhan, 3 or so of the workers at the lab were admitted to hospital with a civid like illness and in one case, the wife of one of those guys died from that illness. Thats a pretty big hint right there.

To explain what gain of function sequencing is, it is not a synthetic process involving gene splicing or anything like that. It is simply training the virus in a lab environment to become more successful at making jumps between species and learning how to infect different tissues. SO they will take the wild sample and infect say ferrets with it over and over again and put the ferrets in with other animals or they will use human cell cultures [often cancer cells] and try and infect them, basically playing around with the forward evolution of the virus by selecting mutations over and over again that specialise in doing the thing they are training it to do. What will happen is the virus evolves to fit the conditions of its lab environment and picks up behaviours it would not have the opportunity to pick up in the wild. Lab viruses will usually begin through this process to exhibit some tells indicating they have been through this "gain of function" research. One if the tells with corona is that right out of the gate it was very good at compromising all manner of human systems, lungs, heart, brain, liver, whatever. Very unusual for a virus to do this, most coronaviruses are respiratory diseases and certainly any that made a natural jump would be this way for a long time and likely never have reason to change, corona-19 is unique though in the way it has behaved. Another thing that sets it aside is it's achilles heal seems to be that it is extremely vulnerable to UV light, which is something wild viruses are not. This is an artefact of the lab environment [exclusively an indoor environment] in which it does not encounter UV light so as it is sequenced through multiple generations and tough to favour specific strategies and characteristics it essentially trades away any natural resistance it has to UV in favour of putting its energy into those other things. This pretty much explains why unexpectedly the virus does not transmit outdoors nearly at all, and why it is quite useless at transmission via surfaces.

There emerging consensus is more 99% that its origin was gain of function research in a lab, and 1% or less zoonotic jump [animal to human in wild]. The experts can tell. The experts have been fighting this for a year and its now pretty much accepted as the best theory, this will only continue to be the case.
Click to expand...

Excuse me while I live in the world of reality .
And your on ignore.I don't mind giving muddled conspiracy speculative types a bit of logic and comman sense but no oxygen beyond that.

What you conspiracy wack jobs are up to is saying that it is suspect that the virus first comes to notice in Wuhan whereas a high density city with a population over 10 million is 100% the most likely place for a pandemic to take hold.Your conspiracy wack job arguments are rubbish and easily seen through.The stuff about covid-19 having exposure to uv light as a weakness and therefore it was constructed indoors is not plausible at all .Every virus coronavirus is broken down by uv light that is why viruses are seasonal and more prevalent in winter and also viruses mutate etc inside a host away from uv light.Even the thickest conspiracy believer should be able to discard light weakness as evidence..Wuhan is in a Chinese province where natural coronavirus occur in the wild.The closest known virus to covid-19 is RATG13 found about 300km away that is a 96% match which means a closer relative to covid-19 the one passed on to humans remains unknown .
The conspiracy wackos have latched on to this other virus from 300 or more kilometers away and made a very flawed arguments of it being evidence of covid coming from a lab.It is not proof of anything other than there being natural coronavirus in that province.
While lab leaks in the world have happened in the past they have been delt with and have never and are very unlikely to cause a pandemic .Why ? Because the institutions are on to it before it gets out of hand.and there is no credible evidence of covid being from a lab or leaking from a Wuhan lab. And the virus seems to have been active and infecting people prior to Jan 2020 that's why it is called covid-19 .So if a lab worker had it at that time that is just circumstantial .If they were the first cases then that is a different story but nothing indicates that's true.
Like I say there is a very slight chance it did come from a lab but that is unknown and the investigations have become over politicized and unlikely to find anything substantial enough to be credible.
 
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Asapartyhat said:
Excuse me while I live in the world of reality

What you conspiracy wack jobs are up to is saying that it is suspect that the virus first comes to notice in Wuhan whereas a high density city with a population over 10 million is 100% the most likely place for a pandemic to take hold.Your conspiracy wack job arguments are rubbish and easily seen through.The stuff about covid-19 having exposure to uv light as a weakness and therefore it was constructed indoors is not plausible at all .Every virus coronavirus is broken down by uv light that is why viruses are seasonal and more prevalent in winter and also viruses mutate etc inside a host away from uv light.Even the thickest conspiracy believer should be able to discard light weakness as evidence..Wuhan is in a Chinese province where natural coronavirus occur in the wild.The closest known virus to covid-19 is RATG13 found about 300km away that is a 96% match which means a closer relative to covid-19 the one passed on to humans remains unknown .
The conspiracy wackos have latched on to this other virus from 300 or more kilometers away and made a very flawed arguments of it being evidence of covid coming from a lab.It is not proof of anything other than there being natural coronavirus in that province.
While lab leaks in the world have happened in the past they have been delt with and have never and are very unlikely to cause a pandemic .Why ? Because the institutions are on to it before it gets out of hand.and there is no credible evidence of covid being from a lab or leaking from a Wuhan lab. And the virus seems to have been active and infecting people prior to Jan 2020 that's why it is called covid-19 .
Like I say there is a very slight chance it did come from a lab but that is unknown and the investigations have become over politicized and unlikely to find anything substantial enough to be credible.
Click to expand...

I see you have added a whole heap to your comment in an edit. You flatter me with the conspiracy wack job jibe but I was just trying to explain to you what the lab leak hypothesis is as explained by biologists. You do understand that "gain of function" research is common practice in virology for the purposes of studying how viruses work? You do understand that the level 4 research lab located in Wuhan was a lab that did gain of function research using coronaviruses it collected from the wild, specifically those collected form a cave in Yunnan province that have the best genetic match to the pandemic corona? There is nothing remotely conspiratorial about this, it is just a fact. There are scientists from our own country [Australia] who participate in this research in this lab and publish papers about it and give commentary to the press about the pandemic origins. I'm not trying to sell you some made up fantasy as you seem to be convinced of just trying to explain what it meant by what lab leak is specifically, what gain of function research is, and what kinds of things covid does that experts in the field feel virus that took a zoonotic jump would not do. This is just dry scientific information, if you want conspiracy theories you are welcome to pm me and I can spin you up a few but I haven't even began to do that in this thread and don't intend to do so either, just trying to bring the conversation up to speed here because I felt the discussion here lacked balance and people are being expected to make decisions with implications for their health without a whole lot of openness coming from the media or public health officials. I think some on here appreciate that, but others are free to calll me a liar or nutcase or whatever anything they want and thats fine, passions run deep on such things for some strange reason.
 
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