News Coronavirus Thread

[Only Forwards]

17% of the Indian urban population lives in the slums.

Around 80 million people.

India definitely poses the biggest potential catastrophe.

I doubt they'll runout of toilet paper though given the cultural differences in bathroom practices.

 

[Pykie]

I have a friend who is an ed nurse in NSW health department. Her briefings are less scary than the media but still intense.

There has been heaps of testing done here in the Northern Rivers and as of yesterday morning first thing only three cases. May have doubled since with four more. But that's still between one and five percent of the tests ... So at this stage over 90% are negative. But that could change very quickly.

Lots of foreign students, and backpackers around here.

Ha just coughed myself. Full of phlegm tho.

Our testing is limited to actual people showing symptoms, that have been sent to hospitals etc.

Singapore, Hong King and Sth Korea have literally set up mobile test spots in telephone boxes, foyers of every major office building etc.

They test temperatures as you get to work, if you fail that, they automatically do the viral test and send you home to await the results.

We are no where near that level yet. We've tested 0.4% of the population so far.

 

[ferball]

Surely there's some companies in this country that can build some ventilators?

We're not talking about space shuttles here.

How hard would it be to jury rig temporary ventilation devices to get us thru the crisis?

I'm not talking about long term functional medical equipment, just something to keep people going for a week or two if they need it.

In Italy someone redesigned ventilator breathing nozzles and was printing them on a 3D printer.

 

[Pykie]

17% of India’s population is closer to 200m people.

Urban population.

 

[CURVE]

You really don't understand and you have clearly demonstrated you have no concept of exponential growth. This thing started globally with a single confirmed case 73 days ago and now there are close to 250k confirmed cases and over 8,000 dead.

To think that what has happened in Wuhan or Nothern Italy is not relevant to Australia is naive stupidity and arrogance. Look at a graph mapping the daily trajectory of our infection rates compared to Italy at the same point in the cycle and then get back to me.

The measures we are taking are not about what has happened in Australia so far they are about what will happen if we don't get on top of it.

WOW! I've never been called dumb before, I understand what exponential growth means. Personally instead of rising to panic inducing numbers, I'm expecting more of a bell curve, the numbers will rise gradually, then stabilize before falling. If latest figures are accurate, this may already be happening in NSW. From the ABC website.



At the same time those that recover from the virus will also rise gradually, then stabilise before falling. My hope is the number of deaths don't rise more than the current levels.

Looking at the graph, I'm seeing growth, NSW and Victoria look exponential, but the other states looks sporadic to me like there is some underlying factor that contributing to those numbers. Am I correct in saying that most of the reported cases are still coming from people who have travelled overseas and returned home recently?

 

[Snake_Baker]

IBM's supercomputer is on the job:

 

[Pykie]

WOW! I've never been called dumb before, I understand what exponential growth means. Personally instead of rising to panic inducing numbers, I'm expecting more of a bell curve, the numbers will rise gradually, then stabilize before falling. If latest figures are accurate, this may already be happening in NSW. From the ABC website.

View attachment 843146

At the same time those that recover from the virus will also rise gradually, then stabilise before falling. My hope is the number of deaths don't rise more than the current levels.

Looking at the graph, I'm seeing growth, NSW and Victoria look exponential, but the other states looks sporadic to me like there is some underlying factor that contributing to those numbers. Am I correct in saying that most of the reported cases are still coming from people who have travelled overseas and returned home recently?

Around 80% are a result of bringing it in or as a result from contracting it directly from someone who brought it in.

But that was from 2 days ago, that % would be quite a bit lower as of today.

There's now 30+ cases from that single wedding in NSW 2 weeks ago, so you can see how contagious it is if it becomes uncontained and breaches the contact tracing measures.

 

[Snake_Baker]

How hard would it be to jury rig temporary ventilation devices to get us thru the crisis?

I'm not talking about long term functional medical equipment, just something to keep people going for a week or two if they need it.

In Italy someone redesigned ventilator breathing nozzles and was printing them on a 3D printer.

I have already posted on this:

News - Coronavirus Thread

Victoria up 22% today. Nationally up 23% at 1pm, another death announced in NSW. This looks like being statistically one of our worst days since the outbreak. Based off the increasing measures, increased testing and the like, should see an increase over the next 7-10 days then start to...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

Our testing is limited to actual people showing symptoms, that have been sent to hospitals etc.

Singapore, Hong King and Sth Korea have literally set up mobile test spots in telephone boxes, foyers of every major office building etc.

They test temperatures as you get to work, if you fail that, they automatically do the viral test and send you home to await the results.

We are no where near that level yet. We've tested 0.4% of the population so far.

721km squared land mass of Singapore compared to 7,692,000km squared for us makes testing of the broader pop a fair bit harder to implement


5.6M people jammed into that 721km compared to 24.5M into 7,692,000km may well create some benefits in community transmission though.

 

[Del191229]

Pick the biggest country by population and combine it with the shittest healthcare system, and that will be the winner.

In theory yes, but there's desperately poor countries with minimal healthcare that have recent experience of epidemics (think West Africa) so they are actually better placed than others to put in the most effective controls.

 

[Del191229]

My work colleague is Indonesian and he says they get all sorts of viruses so she expects this will just do the rounds without much impact.

She's wrong.

 

[Pykie]

721km squared land mass of Singapore compared to 7,692,000km squared for us makes testing of the broader pop a fair bit harder to implement


5.6M people jammed into that 721km compared to 24.5M into 7,692,000km may well create some benefits in community transmission though.

Metro Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are fairly comparable to Singapore if you exclude the rest of the population.

Which is where most of the confirmed cases are anyway at the moment and which poses the main risk of it getting out of control.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

721km squared land mass of Singapore compared to 7,692,000km squared for us makes testing of the broader pop a fair bit harder to implement


5.6M people jammed into that 721km compared to 24.5M into 7,692,000km may well create some benefits in community transmission though.

The process will speed up if we can domestically produce the test kits and the economy continues to mobilise.

 

[Snake_Baker]

721km squared land mass of Singapore compared to 7,692,000km squared for us makes testing of the broader pop a fair bit harder to implement


5.6M people jammed into that 721km compared to 24.5M into 7,692,000km may well create some benefits in community transmission though.

Suburban Hong Kong:



Suburban Melbourne

 

[Del191229]

What is interesting is that for as long as it wasn't real to them Republicans denied that covid 19 was a thing. As soon as it was more real and could directly effect them they ran to the scientists.

For a long time they have denied climate change, we just have not hit the tipping point to make them run to scientists.

Scientists that almost universally agree that climate change is impacted by man made factors. (97% of climate scientists agree according to NASA.)

What it says to me is, politicians who deny climate change have a tipping point coming for them. What that tipping point occurs they are going to absolutely shit it and the economic impacts that are currently playing out or are in the post will be dwarfed.

The good thing about Comrade Coronavirus is that is demonstrating all the things that are necessary for meeting the climate change challenge that we were told were impossible - drastically cutting flights, nationalisation of major industries, reshaping the way people work and are paid - are actually very possible, and that they can be introduced within a few weeks if needed.

 

[ferball]

Our testing is limited to actual people showing symptoms, that have been sent to hospitals etc.

Singapore, Hong King and Sth Korea have literally set up mobile test spots in telephone boxes, foyers of every major office building etc.

They test temperatures as you get to work, if you fail that, they automatically do the viral test and send you home to await the results.

We are no where near that level yet. We've tested 0.4% of the population so far.

True, but lots are testing themselves daily (I do and my family does) not as accurate as those ones sure. But accurate enough.

More testing would be good. It's easier to manage in urban areas too. It's a matter of getting the tests to do that.

 

[Snake_Baker]

True, but lots are testing themselves daily (I do and my family does) not as accurate as those ones sure. But accurate enough.

More testing would be good. It's easier to manage in urban areas too. It's a matter of getting the tests to do that.

Test for symptoms, temperature & respiratory function.

Symptoms



Digital thermometer (~ ($12-15 at chemists)



Peak flow meter ($12 at chemists)

 

[7577969923]

WOW! I've never been called dumb before, I understand what exponential growth means. Personally instead of rising to panic inducing numbers, I'm expecting more of a bell curve, the numbers will rise gradually, then stabilize before falling. If latest figures are accurate, this may already be happening in NSW. From the ABC website.

View attachment 843146

At the same time those that recover from the virus will also rise gradually, then stabilise before falling. My hope is the number of deaths don't rise more than the current levels.

Looking at the graph, I'm seeing growth, NSW and Victoria look exponential, but the other states looks sporadic to me like there is some underlying factor that contributing to those numbers. Am I correct in saying that most of the reported cases are still coming from people who have travelled overseas and returned home recently?

The experience everywhere is that the initial cases are sporadic due to the transmission being driven by incoming travelers and those within one degree of separation. There is clearly a tipping point though where it is no longer an external threat but a community transmission one, which is where we are now. Hopefully, our measures work in diminishing the impact of that but the risk is huge. The USA has gone from 1,700 confirmed cases to 11,000 in a week so there is nothing magical that will protect wealthy western countries.

I hope your bell curve is right but it would be dangerous to assume. The idea that what I am talking about is worst case BS is just not supported by the facts:

1 month ago on the 19th of February Italy had 3 confirmed cases. They will have 40,000 plus confirmed cases in the next day or so and have already passed 3,500 deaths. This is a fact.

Confirmed cases in the USA have doubled in two days. This is a fact.

 

[ferball]

It's "intense" for her because she has to deal with a stampede of over-hyped people.

No not yet. It's intense because of what may happen. She works in Nimbin hospital. May have to be there flat out for weeks or transferred to another hospital. She's 60, has lung and heart issues and is prepared to work till she drops.

She's a trooper. I've been fighting fires with her for years. The sort of person who you'd want watching your back.

It's like a very bad flu that attacks people with compromised immune systems and has transmission rates way above flu rates. There is an aged care section in that hospital that's already isolated. They are going fast out to prepare and don't really know what to expect because testing rates show low levels of positives but there is a sense that it's probably in the community already but no one really knows.

They are waiting for a potential run of cases that may well be overwhelming.

 

[ferball]

Test for symptoms, temperature & respiratory function.

Symptoms

View attachment 843162

Digital thermometer (~ ($12-15 at chemists)

View attachment 843165

Peak flow meter ($12 at chemists)

View attachment 843161

I was doing all of that but haven't seen a peak flow mete so not that. I'll chase one up.

 

[ferball]

none of that matters, it’s all about the face masks, China’s slowed the spread via face masks....

Even if these things don't stop the spread if you wear them they will make it easier to keep your hand to mouth discipline and hygiene levels up. So they are worth it for that alone.

 

[Del191229]

 

[DesertRoo]

The experience everywhere is that the initial cases are sporadic due to the transmission being driven by incoming travelers and those within one degree of separation. There is clearly a tipping point though where it is no longer an external threat but a community transmission one, which is where we are now. Hopefully, our measures work in diminishing the impact of that but the risk is huge. The USA has gone from 1,700 confirmed cases to 11,000 in a week so there is nothing magical that will protect wealthy western countries.

I hope your bell curve is right but it would be dangerous to assume. The idea that what I am talking about is worst case BS is just not supported by the facts:

1 month ago on the 19th of February Italy had 3 confirmed cases. They will have 40,000 plus confirmed cases in the next day or so and have already passed 3,500 deaths. This is a fact.

Confirmed cases in the USA have doubled in two days. This is a fact.

Wait, are you really going to compare the outbreak in the USA to Australia??

They’re already returning 50% positive tests, they’ve lost control of transmission, they’ve also got a failing healthcare system and poor infrastructure. Regardless of how much money Wall Street has.

 

[giantroo]

 

[SnowRoo]

Figured i'd share my experience of the situation.

Working in a secondary school in the SE suburbs of Melbourne, I have exposure to 1300 teenagers and 150 staff, each day I work closely with 5 classes of approximately 50-60 kids in a team teaching environment. So thats 1450 possible contacts, around 300 direct contacts, and say 100 close contacts. Daily.

After work Monday I was not feeling great, came home and slept for 4 hours. When I woke I had a fever, chills down my back and legs, extremely sensitive skin, aches in elbows, hips and knees and a consistent dry cough like choking but unable to move anything. So put myself back to bed and slept for another 15 hours only waking with coughing fits.

Tuesday I spent in bed exhausted watching my temperature which was sitting somewhere between 38 and 38.6. The day was pretty much awake 2 hours sleep for 4. Alternating hot fever and chills. I was pretty much in jocks under a roof fan then huddled under blankets shivering.

Wednesday I called my GP explained the symptoms and went for an appointment, no suprise, fever, irritated throat, cough, you have a virus.

Have you been overseas ..... no
Been in contact with anyone overseas .....no
Are you a healthcare worker .... no

You do not meet the criteria for testing so go home and rest.

So now it's Friday, my fever has finally broken and im able to face food again. Still have a consistent but intermittent cough which is mostly clear fluid I assume draining down my throat.

The plan is to return to work Monday amongst 1450 people.

I was not tested, I have no idea what I had, I am now out of sick leave. Usually I wouldn't think twice about returning to work.

In this environment I'm not so sure.

Would you want me working in your kids classrooms?